this could get nasty
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this could get nasty
not a single buyer to be found at the mo!Lowest seller at $6.30,so what price would you guys buy at?
For me not at any price, Thankfully I never fancied this stock,you can never tell what mother nature has in store
Never trusted the Comvita board and management - far too many discrepancies to their announcements and pronouncements over the last few years to rely on their utterances on anything.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/318243
A few observations:
1. ".... in negotiations we could not bridge the considerable distance between us on price". Looks the offer price was $3.50 and the directors (with their rose tinted glasses on)thought $7.00?
2. " ....has the effect of diversion of Executive and Board time from the day to day operation of the business". As if this has made any difference in the past when presumably they devoted 100% of their time to day to day operations and got their forecasts, 100% wrong three years in a row!
3. " .... a great deal of insight was gained during the due diligence process". Eh - what about the other party getting privy and considerate insight into all of Comvita's businesses and operations?
I get the very strong impression that the party doing due diligence was the one who uncovered the massive profit downgrade.
Buy at 5.5
no point in having a stop loss in place with the buyers around the $5.30 mark.
If the price goes low enough ATM might be interested!
lol
This is just deception and games by the Chinese. They want to buy it but they want it at the cheapest possible price. They lost the "act of surprise" when the directors said a take over was in the works so of cause they are pulling out so the price drops, then they will come back in. It's almost too predictable. Simple games really.
It won't drop below $6 IMO, like I said, the maximum downside is $1 tops. As you know I'm out with made a small profit. The skill here is to pick the bottom before negotiations start all over again. More easy money to be made.
Also, the announcement isn't showing on ASB? (edit, it is now, must have been delayed?)
I can't help it if gullible kiwis fall for this simple price manipulation tactic. Just lol if it drops to $4 then the take over happens at $5. If this was a private company it would be done and dusted by now.
The last take over attempt the buyers were complaining about the price, look what happened.
The smart thing to do would be to buy this dip. Sun Tzu 101 stuff here...
"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak"
"Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt."
Yes, and Cerebos must be thanking their lucky stars they did not pay the $4.50 the directors wanted at that time!
No Chinese is going to take over this dog - you read it here first.
There's plenty of manuka honey players out there now for them to buy - the ants, remember? :D
What happened to your $3 downside if it didn't go through?
Why would they buy shares at $10 and $7.20, then pull out after months of negotiating. They're not gonna buy another manuka company when they can get the best (and frankly only genuine one in the eyes of the Chinese consumer) for a huge discount.
Wait for it - the short covering buyers need to lock in their profits first. :D
Only CVT board and you believe in that nonsense of Comvita being the only genuine manuka honey - but hi, Comvita obviously have a few believers of that notion out there!
Fact is that the other players are selling heaps now via the health and souvenir shops/outlets to China buyers.
The ants, remember?
PS. Never seen such big ants in my life!
Like I said before, if the price drops they'll want it even more, this is a done deal either way.
The stock is not gonna drop. For a food company sub $300m MC making a profit. It won't happen.
What we need now is some Kiwi investors with some balls with the long term vision of it's founder.
Posted 16 April. I think the directors aspirations in terms of value ignore the elephant in the room that this is an agricultural stock carrying massive weather risks.
I am not at all surprised that the interested party has walked away after yet another downgrade fiasco of Titanic proportions.
I think fair value is a VERY LONG WAY south of the current SP and obviously the interested party agrees however I would not be an investor at any price because I have no respect for management or the board after multiple year fiasco's with their forecasting.
Looks like the NZX will be stuck with this lemon for the foreseeable future.
Ogg should be very thankful for some very sage advice by some wise old heads on this thread.
Broker just declined my order to buy some at $2 ... I think that's what they would be worth after spilling an inept board and clean out the management team. Broker seems to feel that I still offered too much - told me to review the offer. LOL.
I guess an opportunity to do something better with my money until the market is ready for my offer - and hey, it might drop over time ;);
@Balance @Beagle
lol, you guy's are just way to conservative in a globalised world filled with cash.
If the take over party was looking for the last few months while the share price was $7+, then obviously they would pay that much today. The board was probably asking for $12, which would be fair if not for the downgrade which has obviously put a short term spanner in the works. The take over party knows if they don't buy it now and wait they risk next years season being good then the price will be double today. Might just have to settle for $8 in a months time.
If this was some generic run of the mill company, then obviously, then yeah, things would be bad now. That's why the short term downside was $1 at most.
You cannot altogether blame the company for the shareprice, it was investors driving it up to ridiculous levels that was part of the problem , how it ever got to 12 dollars was a mystery to me. For years it went on doing its little thing largely unnoticed with a shareprice of around 4.00 when it went over Six it suddenly went ballistic all the way to 12. You were one of its most vocal supporters during that time I seem to remember.
I don't accept that and to be clear I am not blaming management for the SP. If people are foolish enough to still pay north of $6 for this mutt, good luck to them. Fact is company management have made a whole series of forecasts now that have proved to be recklessly and grossly inaccurate. This is an undisputed FACT.
At one point quite some time ago some people including myself thought management had credibility. We're a long way past that point now. The 20% gain from $10 to $12 was due to NZX50 inclusion. Some people cunningly took advantage of that temporary aberration in pricing due to index inclusion. Even now management have a $400m sales target as one of their aspirations for 2021. FCNZ, one of the more respected analysts and are in the mid-late $200m range somewhere from memory and are essentially calling out CVT's management as grossly optimistic and unrealistic.
I really think it belongs back under $4 and all this talk of high growth has been just that, talk that's come to nothing.
If the weather plays nice, every now and again they might make $17m which is about 40 cps and when we apply the time tested agricultural PE of 10 then we get a cyclical peak of $4. Why people are paying north of $6 still after all the recent fiasco's, go figure ?
Price now $6.25...looks like they're just happy to buy it on market :D
edit, $6.31 now, seller at $6.50 ***it's happening***
I can't find this information on the NZX? https://www.nzx.com/companies/CVT
Or am I missing something here?
Try this ...
https://www.nzx.com/instruments/CVT
The take over will happen, it's just a question of when.
Your $3 downside call was just plain wrong. The stock has already come down from $12 and the market cap today is a meagre $280m.
I bet you in the next few weeks there'll be an offer on the table. They won't just walk away. This is all just part of their plan.
I'd admit $10 is probably not gonna happen "this year." I can see at least $8 in the short term, maybe $9 if they're lucky now.
Now that the share price has dropped, so has the expectations, therefore it's the same odds as before, $2/$3 upside vs $1 downside. I'd advise those who got trapped before to double down.
It will be interesting to see if $6 holds tomorrow. I bet you it does hold. Need to wait a few days for the volume to settle to see where it's at. If it drops below $5.50 (which it won't) I might get back in, but at that price I'll be in for the long term.
At the end of the day, this stock is just cheap compared to everything else in the world today. If it was trading on the ASX or was a private company it would be double the price today. Hell, even Capilano Honey on the ASX is almost as big as Comvita now.
You might want to familiarize yourself with the forum rules related to the promotion of securities and giving financial advise. And yes, its easy to get caught out providing financial advise, particularly if you do.
Particularly interesting however that you recommend people to buy securities you sold off yourself (as you admitted) ... A financial adviser on our forum who does not follow his own recommendations?
This stock is trading at 35 times current year forecasted earnings. I think you're seriously undermining your credibility on here claiming its cheap compared to everything else in the world today.
There's some mighty fine companies WITH great track records of doing what they say they will and growing fast trading at much lower PE's than that.
Manuka honey is not the elixir of life or a cure for cancer last time I checked BUT please feel free to post any medical studies that prove otherwise to justify the current price :)
Or this one from the wolf of wall street
Mark Hanna: The name of the game, moving the money from the client's pocket to your pocket.
Jordan Belfort: But if you can make your clients money at the same time it's advantageous to everyone, correct?
Mark Hanna: No.
lol. I told you I sold out at $7, check the thread a while back. I've got nothing in this.
My suggestion (**cough advice) was to buy in at $6.70 on the back of the take over announcement for a potential profit of $2 or $3 per share, with a downside risk of only $1. Even though it didn't turn out it was the right play.
I'm still confident a deal can be reached in the short term but it won't be the premium price "this year", however with the recent share price fall the odds are pretty much the same, so hence it's still in play.
The only ones laughing will the the take over party cause they've saved a heap of money on the back of a few Nervous Nellies.
Crystal clear the board and the potential buyer are miles apart so any chance of this thing going ahead is predicated on CVT proving they can justify the price with repeated run rates higher than what they're (possibly ?) on target for this year. Of course if they do achieve higher profits in the years ahead, (aka the same profit they made years ago when the weather played nice) the board will consider their shares even more valuable because a PE of at least 50 is warranted for such a high growth company with such world class management and governance didn't everyone on here already know :D
Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit.A long term holder thru thick and thin. Will buy at 5.50
lol, what are we betting exactly?...
If the take over party was doing due diligence "for months", that means they were looking at this while the share price was in the $7-$9 range. Therefore their take over price would realistically have been at least $9, possibly $10. BUT, throw in the recent downgrade and they probably dropped their offer price down to $7, a figure too low for the board to accept.
HOWEVER, if the share price drops further, to say mid to low $5s, it becomes interesting, as the questions is now "is $7 an acceptable price"? The take over could happen but it doesn't really help shareholders (the bet).
If it is the Chinese, who already have a 10% stake, this "game" could go on for years. They could possible buy another stake later this year, then make another take over attempt. If it is another party, then it's more likely they will either raise their offer or be gone for good, however, that raises the chances of the Chinese making a counter offer.
I'll bet that there isn't much downside. So, if you buy today and the share price drops to low $5s, then the take over party will be back with an offer at $6, thus you will break even. What I bet won't happen, is that the share price will drop to low $5s and the take over party doesn't come back. To sum up, if you buy today, you can't lose, worse case is you break even.
Hmm - did it ever occur to you that the takeover party might have done something different than just staring at the share price for months on end to decide at the end that they don't want to pay more than market and the board deciding that they want more?
Maybe they actually did some due diligence and found out that the emperor is wearing no clothes ... just another overpriced cyclical agricultural stock with an inept board and management?
With current management and no growth this stock would look dear with a PE of 10, but it actually is in the mid 20'es. p;
PE is 35 at the mid point of their revised forecast. (Whatever that forecast is worth).
I thought the bet is this :
Refer your post above - "I bet you in the next few weeks there'll be an offer on the table."
So my bet is that there will not be an offer by 20 June 2018 - that's 4 weeks (more than a few weeks).
Shall we say $2,500?
Happy to make it higher if you like.
Come on Balance - stop trying to take candy off a baby. You have information that says there is no take-over anywhere near the table "was not Chinese - you read it here first"
Asking Ogg to flip the double headed coin and you make the call is not cricket
lol, yeah I dunno about the $2,500...
The problem is that there IS an offer on the table, it's just that it's not high enough for the board to accept. If the stock were to drop as much as you said it would, then the offer WOULD be high enough for the board to accept - it's a catch 22, so making a bet on the deadline is a bit pointless. In order for me to be right, the stock would have to drop alot, but then you'll be right, but then the buy out would likely happen, and then I'd be right again.
What I was really saying is that there's alot more left in this story and it's unlikely to be the end of it, and so there's more opportunities to trade it in the short term. The fact that the stock hasn't dropped alot, suggests that maybe another offer within 4 weeks may not be likely, but then again, if the stock isn't dropping, it's worth holding just in case something does happen.
Anyway, the question is what's the right move at any given point in time. It was definitely worth getting in at $6.70, and making a play with the take over even though it didn't work out, cause you've now had two days to get out at $6.10, so you've traded a small 60 cent loss on what could have been 2 or 3 times more on the upside. So what do you do now?...
Do you buy at $6, hoping that it's low enough that the board will get under pressure and be more reluctant to negotiate, at say $7, thus making yourself a quick $1. Or do you keep buying the dips and hold long term, hope things improve next season, and go for a bigger prize? Maybe do a bit of both, and pivot on any developments.
As the stock drops, the risk drops, the upside increases, more punters get in, more leverage is created etc... There's money to be made here, long term or short. That's why this stock should be on everyone's watchlist.
As for the bet, I dunno. I'd bet that something happens within 4 weeks that makes us all rush back here to talk about it. :D
Actually,as the inventory price drops the SP drops
I'm shocked at some of the posters comments on this thread who appear to be acting like a gang of school ground bullies...no wonder people are leaving sharetrader if this is how we treat fellow posters...shame on you guys
I had a look on 4traders to see if their are any broker forecasts in the market and according to them there aren't.
So looking back over the last 3 years and adjusting profit for the one off sale of their medihoney division last year and adjusting 2016 for 15 months down to 12 months we see results for 2015 - 2017 of $17.2m, $14.8m and $(5.5m) and $9.5m if they achieve their forecast for FY18. The trend is not very encouraging but lets be generous and take an average which is $9m.
9m / 45.57m shares = 19.75 cps. At $5.93 they're on a forward PE of 30, down from the silly 35 they were a little while ago.
I think they need to come back to a PE of around 10 - 15 to fairly reflect the very obvious agricultural risks including quite obviously significant weather risk and not to forget pestilence, (murtyle rust).
I see fair value somewhere between $2 - $3. Anything above that and you really have to start believing in management that they really can start to deliver growth against the factual observation that they simply are not. To be honest I am surprised anyone has any confidence left !
Interesting - I do have in my spreadsheet still EPS forecasts for Comvita: 23 cents for 2018 and 41 cents for 2019. Pretty sure I didn't made these numbers up but took them from 4-traders. My last update of this company was on the 10th of May. This would make at current discounted price (I hear you ogg) an average forward PE of just 18.5 (given that the SP dropped since my last post ;p).
However - you are right (back to beagle), I just checked again and the EPS forecasts magically disappeared since then. Who knows, maybe the analysts got cold feet or have been part of the "due diligence" exercise and know now better :p?
Anyway - I think we are absolutely in agreement re the quality of the forecasts as well as the underlying value of the company (though I probably would push your proposed upper boundary of $3 somewhat lower.
No need to disagree on details - just lets sit back, take a bag of popcorn and watch the drama unfold.
Craig’s keeping the faith ....although not a buy anymore
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...esk-co-nz.html
Heavens help those who use their guidance to invest - $9 to $6.10?
A stock valued at PER of 36 times (!) whose fortunes are completely subject to the vagaries of the weather and nature for its sole ingredient (manuka honey) and is has been consistently running cashflow deficits?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...412/279783.pdf
2,000 shares - tokenism at its worse given how badly the directors and management of this company have completely misguided the market with their forecasts in the last 2 years.
Big dump...time to open the "buy screen".
Its a sad joke. The $400m sales target two years ago has already been pushed out from 2020 to 2021 and now they think its 2023. Follow the trend. In two years time the target will be pushed out 3 years to 2026 and two years after that will be pushed out 4 years to 2030. What is the point of having a sales target that cannot realistically be met.
Who are they trying to con that this is a growth company when the EPS suggests the exact opposite ?
Normalising the profit for the last 4 years gives just on 20 cps. Until they can PROVE they are a growth company I think the standard no growth agricultural risk PE of 10 applies which suggests they're worth only $2 !
To put in perspective just how truly horrible Comvita's performance has been, PGW has outperformed CVT by 141.4% in the last 2 years !!!!!!!
PGW sp up 74% (39c to 68c) and 19% dividend payout - total gain of 93%.
CVT sp down 50% ($11.55 to $5.76) and 1.6% dividend yield - total loss of 48.4%.
So why should CVT even trade on a PER of 10?
@Balance @Beagle
Was gonna buy today, but got cold feet cause of you two bashing the stock, lol.
This is interesting...
https://www.nzbees.net/forums/topic/...dmaybe/?page=2
It's disappointing that the $400m target has got pushed out but it's still on the table which is why this deserves a higher PE.
I'm thinking maybe one more day of highest volume, and then maybe next week return to normal? It's gotta be close to bottom. At $5.50, it's about $250m MC. I just don't see it going lower unless that $400m target disappears.
Lots more F5 tomorrow :D
With a continued increase in managed hives aka hive density, American foul brood (AFB) is also a risk to the industry. It could decimate everything. There is also potential for new pests and disease to find its way to NZ that would mean more labour costs on hive management et
Attachment 9698
What a sad chart. Why would you think the price got to be close to the bottom? Which of the indicators is telling you that?
Looks to me to have a base at about 5.50.
Thats a little over the top. I agree with you on hive density. It's getting crowded by new entrants, and 1,000 new beekeepers per annum, mainly hobbyists.
But the reported incidence of AFB has been between 0.2% and 0.5% for the past 10 years. Double it for non-reported and undetected cases, and it's still very low. There is a step change in monitoring and audit checking about to commence, so I don't see AFB decimating the industry any time soon. If anything eradication might be closer to becoming a reality than is thought.
This doesn't have much to do with Comvita's performance, so I'll leave it there.
RSI under 20 is only a valid indicator good if it returns through this line ;) and I don't see the MACD crossing over - do you?; But sure - after this steep drop it is an almost certain bet that we will see at some stage (not necessarily now) a dead cat bouncing ... which would form a very temporary bottom and could be a great opportunity for holders to get rid of this flea ridden dog;
Too many bad treated animals for me :p;
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...483/279879.pdf
More token purchases?
The one director I follow closely is Rob Campbell - this guy takes on a Chairman job only after he is convinced it is the right company for him and he is right for the company, and then he loads up on shares to show the colour of his money and his commitment.
Neil Craig buying is simply to try and save face - he has presided over 2 years of mismanagement as Comvita's Chairman. And don't forget the investment in SeaDragon - shows how lousy the company really is with its decision making process.
Do Comvita have a JV with that Capilano outfit in Australia?