Just musing that a 'smart' Bull looking for 'opportunities' would be a few steps BEHIND the herd rather than walking ahead? 😉 just saying..
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Just musing that a 'smart' Bull looking for 'opportunities' would be a few steps BEHIND the herd rather than walking ahead? 😉 just saying..
Hey alokdhir …how they calculate what to pay out as a divie
One announced today a bit less than last year …no pay rise again
" Dividends
In June 2009, Kingfish announced a new long-term distribution policy. Under the policy Kingfish will pay shareholders 2% per quarter of its average NAV.
The payments are made in March, June, September and December.
June 2023 2.82cps March 2023 2.79cps December 2022 2.86cps September 2022 2.83cps June 2022 3.16cps March 2022 3.55cps December 2021 3.67cps
As mentioned above is their dividend policy since June 2009 and its working pretty well for investors ...U get both DRP option if one is looking for pure growth
Dividend is NAV based thus it gets reduced in down markets automatically
All I can say is to check after 2 years mate ...warrants worthless ? Thats very bearish long term call mate ...July 2024 is very far and lots of things can happen ...mostly positive for markets hopefully ...I am surely more positive then u ...I think they will be worth 15 cents plus ...lets see how things pan out
Quarterly dividend of 2.79cps announced, to be paid on 22 September 2023. This supports the view that around 11cps in aggregate will be paid as dividends over the four quarters prior to the warrants exercise date, which indicates/confirms an ultimate strike price of $1.26 for the head shares.
As readers of the KFLWH thread will know, I have 200k reasons to hope the warrants end at a value over 10.5c so that requires head shares to be around $1.37 or higher next 24 July. It is definitely possible the warrants will expire worthless but that is a big call against Mr Market from this point given KFL is effectively a basket of NZX listings concentrated upon those deemed to have growth runways. I know there is some malaise in the market currently but really are the FY 30 June listed entity announcements we are presently experiencing all that bad? And the election uncertainty will be over in a few weeks and the outcome could easily change the vibe.
NAV is still $1.37 now so if that is maintained it is the extent of the discount to NAV that KFL is trading at that is weighing on the outcome. It is NAV that determines the dividend declarations however and many holders of this share are simply looking for PIE income. Any pressure coming off interest rates between now and expiry will be positive for KFL yield on a comparative basis with alternatives such as bonds and term deposits.
In my view plenty of hope for upside rather than pessimism on the downside and lots of water to flow under the bridge meantime.
Good post Ronaldson. Im on the hook with the warrants too and deep underwater currently, if it wasnt for my gains on 2CC my portfolio would be hurting. I talk to a lot of SMEs and if National wins the election i think it will do wonders for the country. A lot of negativity out there due to current govt. Lets see what happens.
Also need to remember SPs are forward looking so warrant exercise date next July will be based on SPs of MFT, FPH, SUM, IFT etc looking into 2025 and beyond
Another week passes and Kingfish NAV down again …this week to $1.3485 ….who would have believed that it would go that low so quick
And I note Fisher have reduced SUM holding by 3.5 shares
have to pay upcoming div ?
All have their favourites and punching bags ...W69 / Bull surely dont like KFL and its value to investors
KFL has been distributing 2% NAV since June 2009 while still managed to increase capital to some extent ...but Bull still not convinced that system can work long term ...even after 14 years of it doing well ....maybe his long term is 1 year ...lol
Question for the KFL disciples please.
For a long term buy & hold Investor who wasn't trading KFL (as in selling the Warrants, or converting the Warrants and then selling the Shares), what is the IRR, since inception?
Cheers in advance.
I can't answer with any certainty but did reference the Kingfish website. A graph is available showing Adjusted NAV Return from March 2004 (listing) to September 2023, and also TSR (Total Shareholder Return) over the same period.
Given a $1.00 start point, TSR has reached $6.00 and Adjusted NAV seems to be around $6.20. Definitions of these are as follows:-
TSR = The Return which combines share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the Company pursuant to the DRIP and that holders exercise their warrants (if they are in the money) on the exercise date.
Adjusted NAV Return = the underlying performance of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and AFTER expenses, fees and tax.
If we simply revert to a % being the last 5 years performance calculated on an annualised basis we get the following:-
Adjusted NAV Return 8.1%
TSR 9.1%
And by comparison the S&P NZX 50G Index yeilded 6.2% annualised over that period.
I don't think you can legitimately exclude the warrants from any calculation because exercise of warrants on each possible occasion necessarily reduces the NAV per share of all other shares on issue at that time, to a greater or lesser extent depending upon the number of warrants exercised and the inherent value available on the exercise date.
Apart from all that you need to factor in the PIE status of dividends, the potential value of which depends upon the holders upper marginal tax rate, and also the DRIP discount has value. For example it usually benefits a larger holder to take the DRIP on each occasion and if cash is needed to sell the equivalent number of shares received on market to achieve that capital sum after trade cost. The margin may be slim but it is mostly obtainable, and since you can sell any time after the record date then even with T+2 settlement you should have money in the hand even before the actual dividend payment date.
Thanks for taking the time to summarise Ronaldson.
Gosh, I was being rather lazy not referring to the KF website myself - apologies!
I'm in agreement with your rationale re not excluding Warrants from any meaningful TSR calculation.
But, I'm not entirely in agreement with KF's stance of measuring TSR based on the assumption that all divi's are reinvested back into the Co.
Thanks again.
getting savaged today :scared: might not ever see 1.30 again ?
I am curious though. Why is brm trading so close to nta lately?
Definitely a warrant issue coming
Todays Vol/wt average is $ 1.259..wow ...at this rate DRP strike shud be $ 1.221 ...wonderful :t_up:
PS : I know still 4 more days to go ...but was just wondering !!
Well mate there's a lot of 'ticking' to go until next year so rather than dwelling on it why not find something else to trouble your mind ?. And we'll look at the clock again next year.
[QUOTE=winner69;1020864]Long game now eh mate …KFL down to 124 ……and nobody wanting the warrants …the clock is ticking[/QUOTE
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-eighth-successive-fall-for-nzx50-index/MJZZBM7TEFBELDO66SPPXX7JR4/
This shud satisfy your query mate !! :cool:
Bull I thought you bought warrants?
No comment todays action lol
Hi yes thanks, I'm aware of the calculation but I don't have access to what the 5 days trading has averaged out to be. I thought someone might have been keeping track, to see if there is a viable option to run with the DRP take the 3% discount and time a sale if equivalent shares held prior to the reinvestment notice. Probably better to have done what @bull did..
Commenting on daily price action of a retirement fund ...U must be very free these days mate ...lol
Today NAV will be revealed ...it will show huge discount going on currently ...maybe U will take advantage ...Bull is already trading KFL also sold at 1.34 two divs back ...we got two divs worth 6 cents so not too much difference even at current depressed SP ...but he still feels he did great ...good on him :p
IMO FWIW KFL is great income stock ....ticks all boxes for me at least ...but then I dont have either the aspirations or need to score big speculative gains quickly to win any BET ....lol
Holding it since 2010 and plan to hold till the end ....they are doing just as good or bad as many star stocks of NZX . It's a back your truck time not unloading time but then all have different ideas ....Higher for longer is also one year only ....I think KFL can survive that year too :t_up:
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1637 HRS Kingfish Limited
CORPACT: KFL: KFL announces variation to the share buyback programme
17 November 2022
Kingfish Limited announces variation to the share buyback programme
On 18 October 2022, and in accordance with Listing Rule 4.14.2, Kingfish
announced its intention to continue its share buyback programme of Kingfish
ordinary shares in compliance with section 65 of the Companies Act 1993.
The Share Buyback Policy, referred to in the 18 October 2022 NZX announcement
has been amended, such that from 17 November 2022, Kingfish will only buy
back shares if the discount to the last published net asset value, after
adjusting for any changes in the S&P/NZX50G index since the last published
net asset value, is greater than 6%.
Andy Coupe
Chair
Kingfish Limited
Save me alokdhir …took Speedy Az for walk along the waterfront this morning …..stopped at the NZX HQ and looked at the ticker they have rolling around the building ….Speedy asked can we move on and I said not until KFL cames up ….and then when it showed $1.24 I told Speedy that’s not too bad mate
Updated NTA
Date 13/9/2023 6/9/2023
KFL undiluted NAV $1.3134 $1.3194
Share price close $1.23 $1.27
Discount 6% 4%
I have never been a fan of DRP, you can normally use price fluctuation to get a good deal on purchase. Guess if the price is consistantly going up then previous statement should be disputed, but this is not currently the case.
Example
DRP 1.22
SP 1.24 minus
DIV 0.028 (net)
= Hmmmm & NZX has not bottomed yet. I would rather take my chances on the market for next purchase.
Appreciate set & forget appeal for some investors, but I'm not one of them.
[QUOTE=mshierlaw;1021157]I have never been a fan of DRP, you can normally use price fluctuation to get a good deal on purchase. Guess if the price is consistantly going up then previous statement should be disputed, but this is not currently the case.
Example
DRP 1.22
SP 1.24 minus
DIV 0.028 (net)
= Hmmmm & NZX has not bottomed yet. I would rather take my chances on the market for next purchase.
Appreciate set & forget appeal for some investors, but I'm not one of them.[/QUOTE
It hit around this level October last year, if you had bought then you would have already collected 11.26 cents plus your 1.24 making todays value 1.36 to you or with div reinvestment you would have 1.11 shares with an asset backing or nta of $1.457 earning 8%
give or take
[QUOTE=mike2020;1021246]Many people don't understand this dynamics of KFL ...U did well to explain to naysayers ....DRP option adds further value especially in a downtrending market
PS : Also I am very happy with its portfolio ...great stocks and will surely outperform market when it turns sometime ahead !
Well done Kingfish investment team …great effort in August outperforming the NZX 50 by a sizeable amount
In August, Kingfish’s gross performance return was down 3.6% and the adjusted NAV return was also down 3.6%. This compares to the benchmark S&P/NZX50G, which was down 4.2%.
I still wonder how hard this guy Matt Peek has to work…seems a pretty easy job …..if he works from home possibly spends a bit time down the local cafe or something
I think he probably has a healthy life/work/family balance.
That said you do have to front up at the roadshow and explain yourself.
In August …worst oerformers
Vista down 16%
Delegat down 10%
A2 down 9%
F&P down down 8%
Auckland Airport down 7%
Jeez, tough month …… amazing Kingfish were only down 3.6%
Another week ……and NAV down again …..below $1.30 now
Suppose that’s good
yep if nzx down another 10% by xmas and with div taken off .... $1 by xmas ?
I can't imagine they ever cut the div, its just part of the deal, ingrained. It would be like a bank cutting your TD interest.
On the plus side maybe my oca order gets hit today. It been there all week. Why is it only SUM and RYM that respond to these snp500 bad days?
Long term average of NZX returns is 4.9% in 100 days after completion of elections ...so if that happens ...NAV will be over $ 1.40 shattering your dreams ...but even if your dream of $ 1 happens nothing much will change for investors ...if people are overly concerned about distributions eating into capital like you then they can opt into DRP and let it become growth stock then income stock ...
Just to jog your long term memory ...in March 2010 it was at 90 Cents mate ...so if you are trying to scare people that $ 1 is end of the world then ...we have seen it before and seen $ 2.12 also after that while kept getting 2% of NAV every quarter ...
Higher for longer will also not last like lower forever did not ....Premium did not last ...big discount to NAV will also not last ...thats the cycle of life .
Only hiccup is dividend getting reduced but that saves erosion of capital at lows of the NAV ...thus we need practice austerity...lol
sure election data is relevant but more than likely irrelevant if wall st keeps going down.
dont know how 2010 on is relevant , todays environment is totally different to that period so is of no relevance really in trying to guess the future
the fact remains its a bet you win if nzx goes up i win if nzx goes down
capital erosion is not made up from dividends and if it is one day you have lost the time opportunity of making money elsewhere
i still stick to my belief they cannot keep selling stock to pay div's without causing more nav erosion esp if nzx goes down
Its a belief? I thought you had done some math or had a formula of sorts.
Any Bull who walks ahead of his herd has clearly not done the maths on his chances of success..
If U had been talking against holding KFL when it was commanding 22 cents premium to NAV and SP was over $ 2 then I wud have agreed with you that its a time to sell KFL or generally the market but at present I see more upside potential then downside risk even in the medium term ...long term its always up all know .
So will it make sense to get out of market at present ....IMHO ...I dont think so ...but you have your thoughts and your own ways ...not all can see the world thru your eyes mate ...but thanks for your perspective
Why is KFL heading back towards it's NTA? Seems at odds with the rest of todays market.
Another good quarter for Kingfish ….outperforming the NZX50 Gross though not by much
In the September quarter, Kingfish delivered a gross performance return of −4.9% versus the −5.2% return of the S&P/NZX50 gross index.
Investment manager doing well
Sept month mudt have been a bummer ….July month +1.2% and August -4.2% and sept -heaps% Giving quarter -4.9%
Eventually they will get there ...ie outperforming index ...sooner then latter ...maybe Bull will be disappointed :p
Using NZX50 as their benchmark seems a bit of a cop out to me
Like let’s leave FBU and SPK out ….which of power companies do we pick …..we are not into property stocks …….better take a punt on a few minnows like VSL and VGL …and then decide the weightings
Suppose meets the criteria of being ‘active’
Must be hard work for Matt
Maybe it's easier to make big bucks going in and out of cyclical stocks like HLG / TRA / WHS / MHJ ....but maybe thats not their style ...they choose very high quality growth stocks to hold longer term till they realise their full potential ...they were doing fine and I have faith they will do fine in future too ...let these difficult times pass ...once Inflation under control and their main stocks like MFT / SUM / FPH come out of hibernation then better times can again be seen on the horizon ...at present only IFT flying high and keeping them barely over water :p
PS : As SR said $ 100 being offered for less is a good thing then not ...at present thats the case for KFL too !!!
NAV per share today is $1.2319. When last published on 18 October it was $1.2795. So down 4.8c in just a week!
The NZX is confronting an abyss. The KFL portfolio is mainly "blue chip" stuff, and there seems no end in sight to the current market pessimism.
What can Luxon do? He obviously needs a hat with lots of rabbits inside. And the final vote count to go his way.
Famous quote .......
Attachment 14811
KFL and its holders have seen many " end of days " times ...most recent was in March 2020 when its SP hit $ 1.05 ....so I am pretty hopeful that if good times didnt last then bad will also disappear eventually ...need to hang in there and use this opportunity wisely
Maybe they dont want to risk it ...they have never used leverage since inception ...though u r right ...20% allowed as per charter
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EEZHJO2OB4URY/
Bull shud read it carefully and try to understand most KFL investors are like told ....long punters ...not short termers
Also KFL has seen this kind of volatility many times before and have emerged out of it still breathing and kicking ....this time will also be no different I am sure
Whether it goes to $ 1 or no is immaterial to us holders as no one is looking to exit !!!
But yes golden opportunity for new investors ...but most will miss waiting for predicted bottom :cool:
Punters (sorry investors) piling into KFL ….at least by Jarden customers …..4th top BUY last week
And they were big buyers of MFT
Definition: For example, the first share in the BUY list is there because the BUY value traded in that stock exceeded the SELL value traded in that stock by the largest degree, last week.
KFL holdings.
Auckland Intl Airport 8.6%
Contact Energy 7.2%
Delegat Group 2.3%
EBOS Group 4.7%
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare 14.6%
Freightways 3.1%
Infratil 17.6%
Mainfreight 15.0%
Meridian Energy 2.0%
Port of Tauranga 2.6%
Ryman Healthcare 4.5%
Summerset 7.9%
The a2 Milk Company 3.1%
Vista Group International 3.4%
Vulcan Steel 1.1%
Equity Total 97.7%
New Zealand dollar cash 2.3%
TOTAL 100.0%
PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS SUMMARY
as at 30 September 2023
COMPANY NEWS..
As I follow mainly small cap companies I decided in July to buy some KFLWH to have access to the above companies.
I bought 25,000 warrants at 0.069 cents 12th July,cost $1,755.At the time KFL's nta was $1.4106.
Therefore my $1,755 gave me "control" of $1.4106 x 25,000 ie ..$35,265 of top NZ companies.
Today.My warrants are trading at .018 cents x 25,000 = $450.I have therefore lost $1,305.
KFL's NTA is now $1.2319.So I now control 25,000 x 0.018 = $30,797.50.
Now here is the interesting result.
Had I bought the group of shares KFL hold ie $35,265 in July, my investment today would be $30,797.50.A loss of $4,467.50 compared with my $1,305 loss buying the options..
Yesterday and today will add almost 5 cents to NAV ...I reckon !
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/420964
Yesterday added 2 Cents when market up 0.85% and today shud add 4 Cents when market up 1.6% !!!
Briefly traded above the last published valuation. Thats a change of market sentiment.
I read with interest how many experienced traders eg Bull are building their income portfolio ...they are choosing to lock their funds now into depressed income stocks like KPG / Bonds / Term Deposits ...mistake which I made in 2010 ...Now imho is the time to invest in KFL type funds which have mainly bluechip growth stocks whose price appreciation will fund growing income from KFL till next rates cycle ie maybe 10-12 years
Eg buying KFL at 1.24 now can give average 11 cents tax paid dividend for next 10 years while providing some capital appreciation when its SP keeps aligning to market yield . As KFL NAV rises due to blue chips rising on p/e expansion based on rates dropping and eps growth its dividend rises thus its SP rises to align with current market yield
In last 3 days of market going up appox 3.2% ....KFL nav is up appox 7+ Cents ...as most appreciation of changing rates outlook happened in blue chip growth stocks like IFT / MFT / FPH / EBO / AIA ....main stocks of KFL