Maybe BOOM TIME is the omen investment / punt / gamble in the Melbourne Cup tomorrow
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Maybe BOOM TIME is the omen investment / punt / gamble in the Melbourne Cup tomorrow
Single Gaze the window fitters choice for the Cup ?
Metro been in the 80's before?
Trading at an all time low. Technically this looks doomed to continue the decline. Milford still got a lot to let go and are clearly disenfranchised holders.
If it ever breaks up through the 30 day MA it might be worth another look but not before, in my opinion.
P.S. Plumbing even deeper lows at the close got the hound pondering. The NTA of the company is -5.77 cps so the entire "strength" of the balance sheet is built upon goodwill which in turn was valued and "constructed" and therefore predicated and contingent upon assumptions of ongoing robust growth. What happens if growth just stops dead in it tracks and simply doesn't happen going forward ?
Hmmmm...kind of undermines the authenticity of the balance sheet I would have thought.
Could be an interesting company to watch on the slight chance the new left wing coalition experiment tips the economy into a recession.
hell yeah .....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Gu4vDhAomE
jeez 86 is pretty low
Milford (if it is them) musy=t be pretty desperate to sell ....before next weeks announcement
If flat isn't that flat or if guidance for full year is a downward slope all hell will break loose I reckon .....analyst briefing a must watch ...even if it is only for the entertainment
Goulder and Rigby need to be a bit more upfront and no more sending messages out in code
There's a lot of negativity baked in at the moment, but who knows but the chart is looking simply awful and it's going to take some good news to get it heading back up.
I agree that leadership need to step up and not tell us bollocks. Let us know the true position and challenges with no sugar coating. It might actually work in their favour, because telling us everything is dandy has clearly not worked.
my declining channel has a bottom around 50c , hope there update good
Surely it can’t go to 85 cents ...that be half the IPO price
Didn’t the promoters do a wonderful job in packaging this up as the buy of the century
I'm with winner on this. If there are skeletons in the closet this could get very ugly. They won't be on a PE of 5 because the market is saying the E number gets revised down..I reckon shareholders are "brave" to hold this one and swim against what appears to be a strong outgoing tide.
This is yet another lesson, (for anyone that needs it) to never hold a share in a clear downtrend. Who would have thought this would break down through $1.00 a little while back ? Very pleased I took my bitter medicine and exited at that level.
Beagle - happy to admit I needed that lesson! Very hard swimming against the tide like you say and losing some confidence given a falling SP before results announcement. Never a good sign - someone know something we don't???
On the potential plus side... at what point has all these downgrades been factored in?? I personally still see value here.
All will be revealed Monday and Oct consent numbers out at the end of the month.
Someone just purchased $600k shares... (And someone just sold 600k shares). SPH notice coming or someone still selling out?
Could be a absolute bargain of a price for all we know. Time will tell!
Also Mickey, have a read of technical analysis explained by Martin J Pring, plenty of that sort of stuff in there. One of the most simple signs (although never conclusive on its own) is when crossing moving averages.
Yes...and an off market transaction as well. Hmmmm...Brian Gaynor’s Herald article at the weekend again raised some concerns about how well the NZX “market” in fact works, when there are large off market transactions such as this.
Be “interesting”if it was Milford.
I doubt you can categorically say that yet. Consumer confidence already being affected by the new left wing coalition experiment.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6...tlook-dimshtml
People need a lot of confidence to decide to build a new home or add a new extension.
Agreed.
People will instead upgrade their car.
One suspects that we might be a "little way" off topic now but for what its worth all the evidence I have seen is that an erosion in confidence is bad for any big ticket purchase. To be fair though optimists, (for reasons best known to themselves) outweigh the pessimists.
Personally I think there's more than a few people sitting on their hands keeping their powder dry waiting and seeing how things play themselves out economically. You get enough people doing that and that's how a recession starts. Can't see too many people wanting to make the bold call of the significant investment required for double glazing their house in the current environment.
Crescent must be feeling smug that they got rid of the last 8% odd of their shares at about $1.70 June last year
Maybe that was the big sell signal
Milford and Fisher increased their holdings at the same time.
Maybe Metro’s biggest problem is it’s lack of diversity at the highest level.
Until Angela Bull was added to the Board earlier this year it comprised 6 white males
The Senior Leadership similarly was 6 white males - recently expanded to 9 which at least now includes a solitary female.
Nigel all chirpy this morning .....off to work with a wide smile on his face
The bearer of good (at least better) news I reckon
I reckon I will be happy as Larry tonight after taking a punt on Thursday/Friday. Even it only goes to a buck that’s a pretty big win
Got to have some fun now WINX in Aussie is in a trading halt
Not a good result, but given the SP it's not too bad. Glad Sir John is gone, that should at least make people happy. Good first half, but tracking for a very poor 2nd half looking at guidance
maybe even 110 by tomorrow .....that's good
Milford may start buying in
FNZC helping strategic review ....hmmm my
Code for what?
The last sentence makes me laugh "the board is currently reviewing the composition of the board" lots of confidence that brings
The hound barked quite a while back that they'd struggle to make $20m this year...good to see my nose for trouble is still working properly and glad to be out.
Second half looking very very weak and then there's the multi million dollar restructuring charge to come in FY19.
Downgrades come in three's. Maybe they struggle to get to $18.5m for the year and what does that say about the business going forward ?
as expected result except for the downgrade which might be a surprise for some.
due to there optimistic forecasting to date i will take next years with a grain of salt at this stage.
Had to laugh when new Chairman to be, Peter Griffiths, said that the bones of the business are good, trouble is that there's no meat on those bones.
Actually its more like $7.5m, not $6.5m and last year the second half was only c. $9m npat so its not that extraordinary.
Obviously some water to flow under the bridge and Mgmt have not earned the benefit of the doubt lately but at 8.5x earnings this has more upside than downside imho. We'll have to see if MPG can deliver the c. $19m FY18 npat and then they might earn a rerate back over $1.00
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...585/270077.pdf
Apologies you are quite right. Second half forecast at the mid point of their forecast suggests ~ $7.5m, if they can make it ? Downgrades almost always come in three's.
H2 NPAT will be down between 7% and 24% (on the much touted normalised basis)
Worse than 6% drop in H1
All honky dory though
Gross Margin only 45% of sales odd compared to 51% last year
No worries ...fixing that at the moment ...in Australia as well as NZ
W69.
You remind me of the people who said the Titanic was unsinkable.
Awful presentation of the chart on the left. Should have done something with the scales to actually show what they wanted to. Very amatuerish
However just imagine the revenue line when consents hit the 35,000 they mention
Mind you they did say 'whilst market activity is difficult to predict, forecasters are typically estimating that residential dwelling consents in New Zealand will continue in a range of 28,500 to 35,000 per annum in the next 2‐3 years'
I said they would fall to 28,500 and I think it was BP who mentioned 35,000 so they have listened to both of us.
Share price on a roll today ....feeling chuffed
I think the guidance should be pretty safe. They have surely learnt their lessons the hard way not to over promise and under deliver. Positively the Australian business appears to be sound
listened in to the analyst briefing ...luckily was able to do other stuff so wasn't an hour wasted
wow .....nothing can go wrong. It's so positive
comment of the day when answering how efficient are they going to get was 'we're looking at a 30% through put increase ....but don't go buidling that into your models just yet.'
jeez analysts gave them an easy time ...no hard questions. Probably ask those when they have the one to one discussions with the company and get the stuff more mortals dont get to hear about
Big Resistance at 94c. Hope this gets broken.But loving the ride at the moment.
Market seems to like the removal of uncertainty around FY earnings as is hopeful of matching last year. You would hope the strategic review yields some benefit.
Happy for you that you're making a buck at the minute, enjoy it while it lasts...bit like the sun in Auckland wandering along Pt Chev beach at lunchtime. A balmy early summers day at 25 degrees ! Watching the dog's enjoying playing I got to thinking every dog has its day. Wonder when it starts raining again ? 30 day MA is 97 cents. It'll be interesting to see if they can bust through that.
Beagle - even top end of guidance of $20.0m is less than last years normalised $21.3m
They tout this normalised crap so that is what we must compare it to
H2 as above post 7% to 24% less than last year.
But at least we know that so that’s good ...and F19 will be a boomer
And share price a buck on Wednesday if not before.
Not sure which they are comparing to entirely, though last years normalized profit did include:
- Exchange differences on translation of foreign operations 787k ]
-Cash flow hedges 1,075k
Minus that and we'd have 19.5 million normalised for actual operations, which current forecast will be inline with that.
I would think as sure as night follows day that a comprehensive multi month review of all operations results in substantial restructuring charge in FY19 BUT almost as sure as day follows the night the market won't be that worried about that as they'll "buy" the line that normalized profit from operations in FY19 will be up on FY18 and then in FY20 they will have all their ducks in the row...or so they tell you. If it can break 97 cents (30 day MA level) and hold above there for three days that's the acid test as far as I am concerned that the downtrend could possibly be over. Too much risk for this hound until then.
CEO said:
MetroGlass kept its full-year profit forecast broadly unchanged in a range of $18.5 million to $20 million, from $19.4 million last year. Rigby said when a company's stock has fallen out of favour with the market "you have to make sure your guidance is conservative." The company had taken "some learning about how well we have communicated our growth strategy," Rigby said.
Rigby is (conveniently) comparing F18 guidance ($18.5m to $20m) to the reported F18 NPAT of $19.4m
I'm just pointing out that on a normalised basis it should be compared to $21.3m. No abnormals reported in H1 but bet your bottom dollar the guidance doesn't include any either.
good to hear he reckons he is being conservative ....only time will tell
There's a long interview with Mr Rigby on NBR too where he talks about MPG very positively.
To be honest I'm getting pretty annoyed with their communication style. He was asked about the SP and shrugged it off like it was no big deal. Where's the apology? One thing I liked about FBU is they took accountability and apologised. In fact MPG never admits they've had a poor half / year etc because they always blame it on market conditions.
Mr Goulter also finally leaves and everyone acts like this was the plan all along and that they announced it at the ASM - which they didn't. Hiring Peter Griffins who has been part of the mess doesn't build that much confidence either.
MPG is full of excuses and constantly talks about machinery efficiencies over and over. When will the results be delivered? We can never be sure because it gets pushed out and out. Their strategy day was also a lot of rot because they've pretty much stopped talking about all those targets.
I'm still holding my half because I think all the negativity has been factored in. However at some point they need to acknowledge the disappointment and loss of money they've contributed to for pretty much every investor to ever buy the company.
I've definitely learnt my lesson with this stock and I'll be gladly selling out when it hits a level I deem acceptable.
I thought the normalised NPAT accounted for the amortization of customer relationships. There should be a similar amortization this year and indeed in H1 as this is amortised on a straight line basis.
Edit: Oh never mind I think the above is wrong. However there will presumably still be a $1.5M amortisation expense for customer relationships included in the NPAT figure (as per FY17). Checking if they are amortising things like goodwill and customer relationships is something I usually do.. then add the figure back in to my model.
You earn reputation over time and by very clearly articulating what is and is not included in your profit forecast and then consistently proving your forecasting is in fact conservative by soundly beating it year after year. They should come out and state what they expect the cost of the multi month comprehensive business review is expected to cost and whether this is or is not included in the profit forecast. If as I suspect this is a seven figure sum, then until they clarify one way or the other shareholders are still a little in the dark about the estimated normalized profit for 2H aren't they ?
Talk about being conservative is just talk. The "value" of such a claim if any will only be known with hindsight and in my opinion the company has a fair few bridges to cross to rebuild investor trust. If I was an investor I would be assuming right at the lower end of guidance range ($18.5m) as they have something of a record of over promising and under delivering and in the absence of any concrete information otherwise based on their track record you'd have to assume the operational review costs come off that.
Notice how Metro don't talk about the cost of that review do they ! Perhaps they haven't even asked for a review quote, there's a scary thought, and of course there are no cast iron guarantees that the very expensive review will guarantee future economic returns is there ?.
Why do they have to hire outside consultants to tell them how to manufacture and supply glass ?...I still reckon this simply beggars belief...just like Fletchers hiring outside consultants to tell them how to construct a cost model for bidding for construction contracts LOL. This hound reckons both these examples are a very sad indictment on the skills of the management and directors of both companies.
In F18 they they had $1m in Australian acquisition costs and $1m in a prior year tax adjustment re the IPO. Metro said these were non recurring and called them abnormal items to come up with their much touted normalised profit of $20.3m last year)
They also have a thing called NPATA they use as a profit figure to assess dividend payout. This adds back amortisation related to acquisitions, the numbers you have quoted above.
Management skills or lack of.
Ryman did not have to bring in any outside help after the ChCh earthquakes.Had all the skills in house.
Ebos has done over 20 acquistions over the past 20 to 25 years without one consultant.
Freightsway.No out side consultants .
Mainfreight.No outside consultants.Get an acquisition wrong.Fix it.
Why is this so?
Because these companies know their business better than any consultants,and have all the skills in house.
I see HBL.HLG ,SUM ,THL,and TRA in the same mode.
Sad thing about all this Strategic review stuff at Metro is that because of all the hype they themselves created it’s all out in the open.
Metro have been doing things well for decades and too a large extent are still doing things well (not good enough for greedy demanding shareholders with high expectations). Over those decades they have probably had some form of continuous improvement program. I recall being on such a team in the 80’s. Former owners lived glass and glazing and were very successful.
Metro is a great example of what damage private equity can do to a company. Since 2006 when catalyst paid over the odds for Metro and essentially drove it into bankruptcy before taking a haircut and resurrecting it I would hazard a guess most of the things that made Metro a good company (culture, passion etc etc) have gone, Metro were I’ll prepared to become a listed company and the results are plain to see.
In any good strategic reviews and continuous improvement programs etc etc are day to day and ongoing with costs absorbed into budgets etc - touting we are a doing a strategic review is an admission of failure.
Bit sad all this is out in the open for Metro because fundamentally it still is a good business and doing things well (pretty high EBIT margins for instance) ....but expectations for the future still remain unrealistically high. I think the market will remain ‘unhappy’ for a long time.
Ironically in some respects shareholders are the root cause of where Metro finds themselves now.can only blame themselves.
Until they clarify whether this comprehensive review of all aspects of the business is fully budgeted and either included or excluded as an extraordinary item from the current year forecast then their forecast is as opaque as a frosted bathroom window. How can investors and the market be happy with that ? (What do I know...the SP is up a few cents in the last 24 hours)
Craigs have reduced their target price from $1.55 to $1.05,some 30%?? and rate them as a hold.?
I do note Craigs target price is still lower than the $1.08, our other dead duck MVN, is currently trading at.
http://www.mrmuscleclean.com/nz/imag...on/MMGlass.jpgMr Muscle Glass Cleaner
"Metro Glass is adjusting its New Zealand business to reflect softer market conditions, and assuming no significant variation to the Company’s expectations, the Group’s net profit after tax for the 12 months to 31 March 2018 is likely to be in the range of $18.5 million ‐ $20.0 million. This compares to $19.4 million for the 12 months to 31March 2017."
quote from the announcement.
I need instructions for use of the Mr Muscle glass cleaner, Beagle's are all claws and paw pads handling such bottles.
What is the cost of the strategic review ?
Are you 100% sure this has already be budgeted as an ordinary operating expense in the company's forecast or will they try and con shareholders this is an extraordinary item and should be treated as outside normal P&L expenditure ?
I look forward to clear instructions as I hate getting my fur contaminated with cleaning chemicals for no good reason.
FPH great example of financial reporting. Reported results as per the accounts. None of this normalised stuff - just mention of things like we absorbed $10m of legal costs in the commentary.
Can’t imagine Metro saying we absorbed $1m of consulting costs (or whatever it is) - need abnormals
Agreed and by no means the only ones. AIR are also very good at clearly articulating what is and what isn't included in their forecast and making things crystal clear.
I reckon someone on here should e.mail investor relations department (if they have one) at MPG and get some clarity about what the expected cost of the review is and whether that's already been budgeted as a normal expense in their profit forecast and post their response, (if any is forthcoming) on here.
I dont want to "Jinx" it but looks like MPG is quite close to cross 97 DMA.
OMG - from Stats NZ
The seasonally adjusted number of all new homes consented fell 9.6 percent in October compared with September, when consents fell 2.5 percent.
Down only 1% from October last year.
Hate how they report on this, you scared me for a second Winner - month on month tells nothing tho, there is seasonality for consents! Headlines all over this like its the breaking news of the century.
YOY looks all good given changes to GOV etc and still at record highs.
The seasonality number takes into account ‘seasonability’ so October are weak numbers .....but not than many apartments consented
‘volatility’ in monthly numbers is what cause the headlines
Still pretty high numbers but annual growth approaching zero .....and probably going negative.
Metro tout the relationship and th lag ....so market conditions not going to help them that much next financial year.....but they’ll still make $20m odd profit
Agreed and also you need business confidence to invest in new commercial projects so this dramatic collapse in confidence to lows not seen since the GFC is quite concerning I would think. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9...kiwi-dropshtml
Finally some life in Metro, thought it was beyond revival. :t_up:
One of the stars of the NZX today eh
As t_j would say Mr Market must be waking up to the huge potential Metro has - especially these millions of extra windows that Jacinda and her team is organising
No worries ....Metro might make more than $20m this year after all
You buying more loulou
Bought some through my Kiwisaver, bought some more myself and have been drip-feeding my Kiwisaver contributions, so is now my biggest holding. And.............. am not proud of that.
Tony Alexander came out late last week in his weekly update and basically said to ignore this latest business confidence survey. Reckons business people are just being, (I am obviously paraphrasing here) Sour Puss's and having a good pout and the usual trend is that negativity will reduce as people get used to the new Govt.
Still think this is a very average company run by very average management and governed by very average directors trading in a cyclical industry at the peak of the cycle..PE of not more than 10 surely...who wants to invest in just Joe average companies anyway...or maybe they're actually really quite a bit below average and their balance sheet is riddled with goodwill that can't be justified based on the current lack of growth
[QUOTE=Beagle;695968]Tony Alexander came out late last week in his weekly update and basically said to ignore this latest business confidence survey. Reckons business people are just being, (I am obviously paraphrasing here) Sour Puss's and having a good pout and the usual trend is that negativity will reduce as people get used to the new Govt.
Tony Alexander is exactly right.
I did point this out to you on TRA thread my post # 1924 1/12/2017 when you posted the link to the same article.
Wondering if its worth a small nibble at this level (as a short term hold) given it has quite a good wee divie :confused:
Sorry Rupert but your investments always appear to be on the loosing side..
Just stop .... Read this site .. Learn from this site..
You will never find more informed people of the NZ exchange willing to talk .. Clearly and honestly anywhere else..
But what would I know ...?????
I still think MPG is pretty cheap at these levels, but it deserves to be. if they turn it around in FY18 shareholders will be rewarded, but given their track record I've lost most of my faith. Apparently they have increased their pricing significantly so if they can keep market share they should pull in an ok 2nd half. I'm predicting 19m NPAT for the year.
What annoys me about MPG the most is their complete lack of transparency and at times lies. Like how they acted Sir John Goulter was planning to depart following the ASM and then made nothing of it, or the fact shareholders have never had an apology for the fact this has been the worst performing nzx50 stock of the year.
I still hold some in hopes that it will one day bounce back, but I have sold some down so this no longer has a significant weighting. I hope more than believe at this stage. Agree the dividend is good, but they do have a lot of debt which is a bit worrying if there's a downturn.
More than any one wants if the truth be told..
Seriously.. Learn to cut your loses.. Can the money be used in a better place..
Having said that.. I have had embarrassing loses.. As we all do as we still learn.. Aye Percy ???
I think your losses have left a bitter taste in your mouth and clouding your judgement
Growing revenues and improved profits over the last few years with a more than solid EBIT margin that many industry players would envy does not fit with your recent comments about management and general performance
Metro shareholders are their own worst enemies
Sorry about saying this ...no personal insults intended