Better than F&P healthcare in $nz terms and I'm not convinced that's not getting into buy territory soon.
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I'm a long term investor, so hope that Dassets is correct as I'm well underweight Tesla and could do with lower prices to top up into. I give FSD, the robot, model 2, robotaxi, Cybertruck, Semi, battery improvements, HVAC, renewable production and storage an above zero chance of happening. If some of them happen profitably at scale the current share price appears cheap.
And maybe in 2024...
"Elon Musk confirmed during the conference on the new quarterly figures that Tesla’s focus is now on the development of a new platform for smaller electric cars.
The goal with Tesla’s third platform, following those for the Model S/X and Model 3/Y, is to halve costs"
Tesla the most overvalued and overhyped stock in the history of the share market....
I cannot see how it would be remotely possible to have a new platform anywhere near ready in 2024 which incidentally begins in 14 months. The amount of testing alone is over a year. Tesla have not been rapido when bringing new products to commercial markets. Tesla also doesn't have the plant for it and to even order it some sort of product development will have had to occur. The reality is Tesla has squandered what may have been a first mover competitor advantage on the real volume market. At a guess there will be 40 examples from other manufacturers in the space before Tesla's one sees the light of day. That is a fundamental mistake IMO.
Walter TSLA is 1.8% of the S&P 500 so it won't be hard to get to market weight in your portfolio. I, however, wouldn't invest in a company whose strategy relies on if they role out something at scale profitably. The Semi is nothing. BYD, for instance, has been selling that product for years as have others. Cybertruck's styling is just terrible. FSD is basically dead. Renewable energy is not a new concept , neither are robots, trying to make batteries outperform the laws of physics and chemistry, HVAC ok? I don't dislike Tesla at all but when I look at it with investment glasses on I don't like what I see.
Thanks Dassets, I appreciate your point of view.
I'm just more optimistic that Tesla will continue to grow than you are. I own BYD, but if the Tesla Semi if half as good as Elon claims, it will wipe the floor of the similar BYD trucks. Tesla say they will produce 50,000 a year in 2024. You suggest no chance, I think some possibility. There are huge tailwinds, unless the new Government post midterms smashes them. Let's see how Pepsi get on in December.
You think no work has been done on Model Q, yet there is a design studio that has been operating in Shanghai for some time. Elon has also given a timeframe for it's release. It's unlikely they will deliver on time, but it will happen.
Cybertruck reportedly has more than 2 million orders. If only 10% of them actually pony up, that is still a big market. I think it could canabalise some of Tesla's other sales. Let's see if they produce in 2023.
FSD makes steady progress, 160,000 are using Beta now. I've seen it go from often wrong, to usually right.
Renewable is ramping quickly; they now have the capacity to produce faster. Tesla has a huge backlog of orders.
Marc Raibert, Chair and founder of Bosten Dynamics, disagrees with you about Tesla's robot. The target market at AI day broadly seems to agree. Many robots are available, Tesla's goal is to reduce the cost.
On historical earnings the shareprice as gone from nose bleed to expensive. None the less I can see a path to the current price being reasonable or even cheap. Some reasonable bulls suggest the 2024 PE is in the 20s. My biggest concerns are China and Elon's mouth.
Yes, my thanks you both for your comments - good to read and weigh up same.
Another short-term factor is that it appears Musk has not had to sell any more shares to purchase Twitter, and so the removal of that overhang should have a positive affect pretty soon methinks...
Today trees are being felled for the next German expansion. Tesla can't have been too put off by German bureaucracy and fake Green outrage. Part one was meant to ramp up to 500,000 cars a year, so starting on part two suggests Tesla is optimistic about Europe.
Incidentally I didn't expect he needed to sell any more stock. Basically he got more cash from the earlier sales than almost anyone calculates. Why? People said he needed to pay tax on any of the stock sold that came from converted employee/exec/director options. Simple? No. Elon made a disclosure in February 22 that he donated 5.044M shares to an unnamed charity 3 MONTHS EARLIER!! Yes he had already exited stock and delayed the disclosure for 3 months. I wonder whether the unnamed charity could have been the Musk Foundation, set up to invest in renewables research and space. Now that stock was almost certainly sold at the time of gifting. The gifting generated a nice tax credit for Elon.
It staggers me that investors and analysts can't even pick up these details. Average work all round. That 3 month delay between disposal and disclosure is unreal especially given Elon's direct sale into the market later. Wow, was he maybe pulling the wool over people's eyes to protect later selling? A cynic would think that was possible.
All docs supporting the disposal to the charity and timing were filed with the SEC where you can find them.
BTW analysts will need to downgrade again next year as Cybertruck is not going to meet embedded forecasts next year of circa 80,000 after the announcement that it won't be assembled in quantity until late next year.
Dassets, isn't part of your thesis that Cybertruck will not sell in any quantity? Who has an 80,000 Cybertruck forecast for next year? Bulls like James Stephenson forecast about 30,000 next year and expect Tesla to make a loss on them.
Think I saw the 80T estimate via Patreon - Troy Teslike, in a spreadsheet. The number was the production forecast but I cannot remember whether it was Troy's forecast that he was downgrading or it was an estimate of average analyst forecast views for 2023. My "thesis" supporting my short strategy doesn't factor in Cybertruck as a positive or negative, just assumes neutral. Tesla gets there on other factors for me. But my comment on sales for Cybertruck is only about sales numbers for next year.
I don't take much from the report in the last day about China deliveries dropping to 71,704 cars from its Shanghai plant from a record high of 83,135 in September, Bloomberg commenting on CPCA data. I want to see more detail on that.
A big problem is European markets. I subscribe to Matt Gasnier's sales site. Tesla is not getting traction in the main Euro markets(October country data being released now, France, Spain, Netherlands out already), in fact absolute sales numbers seem to be falling sept YTD year on year. My reservation over this data is the chunky deliveries that do occur. But for Tesla to get anywhere near its global ambitions on sales growth Europe has to be part of it. It just isn't happening at the pace it needs. Fine before when there wasn't competition but there is now and others are selling. Tesla is letting competition get meaningful market share. So the pie sure is getting bigger but Tesla is not getting the slice it needs to support its "targets" or valuation implied sales. I don't hate or love Tesla. I am just looking at it as a business BTW
What a fuc!in mess Musk is making with Twitter which is imploding on Tesla, he like Trump imho needs a public relations minder !!
I warned everybody about Tesla... it being the most overvalued stock in all of history....
The price target is chapter 11...
I agree. Take about 7 years by my numbers. That is about when it cannot invest in any new models.
Well I was spot on with the stock that went to a charitable being Musk's. Now confirmed. My theory of the tax spot on. I suspect he was also selling last night looking at the volumes. I truly don't know where the mid term bottom is for this stock but I have expressed my 7 year view. Tesla will likely merge being a mere shell of its past glory or go bust. IMO those outcomes are now baked in. Tragedy for a lot of people and I don't say that glibly.
It's great that your short term thesis is playing out, Elon's mouth and Twitter purchase has helped. Not that the falls are Tesla specific, you would have done as well or better shorting Ryman, Meta, Amazon, Ford etc. The drop in price means that I am happy to slowly increase my exposure - the plan is 5-10% of my portfolio, but I'm in no hurry. I've mentioned before that I'm less pessimistic about Tesla's future than you. I think Q4 22 will be ok, but Q1 23 to be very poor.
C C , You talk sooooooo much rubbish , I bought ( 50 shares ) in Testa June 2017 @ $381 each and again ( another 50 shares ) @ $470 Jan 2020 sold 3/4 @ $402 after a 4 for 1 split !! this ant the last of Tesla it will be around for years as the leading E V despite Musk being a nutter just like must on the Ponzi crypot Ponzi !!
I am not on a beat up Tesla or Musk crusade but will continue to comment on anything I think could be material. People can use the info any way they like. That is the way markets work. But rest assured I verify, if possible, the base facts that I base my comments on. Just basic 101 for analysts.
Anyway I have been surprised by no respite for the share price direction. I basically closed out around 170 expecting some sort of bounce. The fall is now has the potential to do further perhaps catastrophic damage. Put aside the negative implications for apetite for bond issuance which TSLA was gunning for after gaining investment grade rating.
This damage relates directly to Musk's own pledging of shares to support debt in his personal capacity. I did see 92m were pledged as at December 2020, this is pre Twitter btw. Kimble Musk and Gracias have both pledged the bulk their holdings but I will focus on Elon. At the end of Dec 2020 the share price was $235 and has dropped 48% since. Now Elon has qualified for granting of stock options so that is a positive. But he has taken on Twitter. Also I understand that Tesla limits directors on pledging stick to maxing borrowing at 25% of market value. This is a major info point. I presume that Elon is very likely to be either pledging more stock to meet lender colateral requirements and or Tesla board limits. OR he is selling more stock or needs to(I suspect it is possible he has been the last few days, getting a 3 day gap between selling and disclosure.
If Elon has pledged ( a lot) more stock Elon is super vulnerable to attack from short sellers and so is Tesla.
If my scenario is right then possible outcomes are truly very unpalatable. Indeed from a risk point of view it is a risk that few would take on due to the position Tesla could be in.
Now this analysis lacks insight to the value change of the other investments presumably for which the debt was used. But having key executives exposed to margin issues like this is something many companies and executives avoid for precisely the downside of such a strategy.
If I recall correctly didnt he say this week that he had ended selling tesla stock ?
There are a several issues in play. Elon and his situation, margin calls on the "retail" gamblers, whole market capitulation, the general economic outlook and the companies' finances. The last one is the one that I'm least worried about. Unless they have a need to raise capital the share price does not have much of an impact the health of the company. I remember a time when Apple was the equivalent of 30 cents a share, yet the company went from strength to strength.
I forgot to mention something important. Elon is not allowed to sell any shares from exercised options for a period of 5 years from exercise. The reality of his statement about not selling more shares could be this, that he has now pledged all the shares that are saleable( and that could easily be the case). If the lenders exercise their right of sale because he can't remedy a breach or he is forced via court order to handover shares from options to lenders for sale then technically he could say he didn't make the decision to sell them.
He called Twitter wrong and this pledge problem is not going to go away. Media will pick up on it in the new year and start writing articles imo. Just like my earlier warning on Saylor and his bitcoin margin issues at Microstrategy and later media prick-up.
My Xmas cracker had this joke in it...What has Tesla and a flat basketball got in common? Neither bounce.
Check out bestinTESLA.
This could have a big bounce
Chicken genius thinks $60.
Actually it isn't as rosy as you think. I have mentioned this stuff before.
The cash in the bank isn't really true cash available. The company holds deposits on cars which is cash provided by buyers. I did the calc but can't remember off hand what the amount was but it is lots. Any thing like tesla underwritten insurance or warrantee also requires cash. Then the current payables account for the bulk of the rest of the cash leaving about $3B. Problem is Tesla has started to generate inventorywhich isnt immediately delivered. This will get worse and that needs a lot of cash. Thr buyback of cars or leased cars returning is a growing problem. Used values are falling. Finally each of the ten plants he wants to open by 2030 cist around $5B each with around another $2B in working cap. The price cuts in China and looks like elsewhere is cutting margins.
Revenue is definitely not diversified. It is highly concentrated on 3 models all consumer products. Semi trucks are obviously not commercially viable atm and cyber truck .. . My guess you will not like.
Don't forget the consumer slowdown.
Institutions still arent buying at these levels in any serious way.
Tesla cant issue bonds, no take in the market.
Holy heck - TSLA down over 66.67% in 15 months (ie it's lost 2/3 of its adjusted Share price value)
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA
It's only a theory it seems pretty plausible to me....
Musk is exposing the underbelly elite with the Twitter files releases... they will rug pull him and wont help finance Tesla.... these investors will also sell out...
Its also coming out that Tesla vehicles are not as good as thought...the batteries aren't that flash... people could also be waking up to climate change
Switzerland has banned ev cars apparently...
Musk has bitten off more than he can chew with all his projects perhaps he should sell the robo taxi business... free up cashflow... 400ish billion dollar company is huge...
Could be just a weak bounce here then downwards it continues.. Regardless... this is a good test case... profiteering from it or not doesn't matter..
I think it is thinking about it.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/96021433.cms
EV cars are a one big hoo Har.....
I've seen recent videos from USA showing it costed more to charge a car than it would to fill it with gas....
It's just the same footprint if not more... instead of petrol it just piles more pressure on the main power grid with charging... they are not adding capacity to the power grid...
Be super careful about Tesla... understandable there should be a bounce... but 400ish billion market cap is still huge for a company with no real profits.....
After musk exposes mainstream, tesla failing is the only thing that now makes sense.....
where is teslagod...?
Sold 1.3 million cars in 2022 - 40% increase on the year before which in my opinion is not too bad given the current market conditions. Reporting on Jan 25th so will certainly be interesting to see the figures…
Also, they are planning to host an Investor Day on 1st March.
Will be live streamed from the Texas gigafactory and they will be displaying their most advanced production line. Long term expansion plans, generation 3 platform and capital allocation are some of the other subjects to be discussed…
In USA charging on a roadtrip may be similar to paying for gas, but most people charge for much less at home for their daily needs.
They charge off peak at cheap rates, not when everyone has their aircon on.
I expect the growth rate to moderate, but here is their sales history
2012: 2.7K2013: 22.5K (+733.3%)2014: 31.7K (+40.9%)2015: 50.6K (+59.6%)2016: 76.2K (+50.6%)2017: 101.3K (+32.9%)2018: 245.2K (+142.1%)2019: 367.5K (+49.9%)2020: 499.6K (+36%)2021: 936.2K (+87.4%)2022: 1.31 Million (+39.9%)
There is much noise about their Q4 delivery miss - they have about 70,000 cars in transit, at shops or in storage
That is 13 days sales.
I actually expect Q1 to be brutal. Energy may save it though
Note my comment re inventory build up. My earlier comments point out the issue with this. It is a permanent development and will suck capital. For instance the inventory build up for Q4 sucks up another US$1bil, yes that is right. That is probably now $1.5BIL in inventory build-up for Q3 and Q4. Cash is basically accounted for, ie no buy-back or meaningful one. Might be a pretend one.
Yes, with growth has come logistics and inventory issues. There were 3k cars sitting at Berlin airport waiting to be shipped to Taiwan. There are 4k cars waiting to get into Australia. Those two minor markets alone account for 10% of the 70K in transit, at delivery centres, at factories or in showrooms.
New Zealander Tom Zhu has now been put in charge of global production. He has done a fine job getting Shanghai humming, hopefully he will get Texas to rapidly ramp.
There are now new Tesla battery production facilities in Shanghai, Berlin and Texas that are yet to pull their weight. If they can get the new tech viable Tesla battery costs will plumet.
February 2021 was when Tom mentioned designing a car for China. From memory, the Shanghai Research and Development Centre started in October 2021 as did the Shanghai Data Centre. It would be foolhardy to assume they have spent the last year and a half doing nothing.
One way or another Tesla is always an entertaining company.
You might be right on the politics side of things, although I think the bulls are too paranoid about the risk.
There is much shouting about how the new tax credit cuts out much of Tesla. They have gone from no cars getting it to some getting it. The credit does appear intellectually challenged. $79,999 hybrids are getting $7,500. Ford Mache E and the new GM Equinox are capped at $55K for the credit. Tesla Model Y is capped at $55K, unless it has 7 seats, then it is capped at $80K. VW ID4 gets the $80K cap if it is AWD. The rules breach many trade agreements anyway, so it's wait and see. It appears to me that Tesla will benefit, just not as much as the uberbulls hoped.
There was a report released showing Tesla in California employs massive amount of people at higher-than-average wages and pays lots of tax. Perhaps that will temper some of the hate, but probably not.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-...rial/101874512
Elon Musk depicted as liar and visionary in damages trial over 'false' Tesla tweet
Hey Elon - it's a special tailor made CLASS ACTION from your TESLA shareholders left damaged :)Quote:
The prospect of a $US72 billion ($104 billion) buyout fuelled a rally in the company's stock price that abruptly ended a week later after it became apparent that he did not have the funding to pull off the deal after all.
Tesla shareholders then sued him, saying Tesla shares would not have swung so widely in value if he had not dangled the idea of buying the company for $US420 per share.
Nicholas Porritt, a lawyer representing Glen Littleton and other Tesla shareholders in the class-action case, criticised Mr Musk as he addressed jurors.
"Why are we here?" Mr Porritt asked.
"We are here because Elon Musk, chairman and chief executive of Tesla, lied.
"His lies caused regular people like Glen Littleton to lose millions and millions of dollars."
Enjoy :)
I have started shorting this thing again, only retail buying, raw materials are heading up, only the US cars making money, ROW isn't. Expect work to start on cheaper car, what is the point aftetr the price cuts. Over 40 EVs will be launched this year again. Bringing the offering to 80+ . 2023 EPS estimates already down 30% over the last 90 days.
4th qtr results after tomorrows session.
And probably formal announcement of new factory in Nevada for semi truck.
Tesla is committing US$3.5Billion to build their "FIRST high volume Semi factory".
Dassets assures us the Semi will be a failure, one of them will be wrong.
Part of the investment will be a 100 GWh 4680 battery factory, Tesla are slow learners, they have underperforming scale battery plants in Texas, Berlin, Shanghai and Nevada. What are they thinking?
Up approximately 33% this week...
Apparently Investors day was a bit disappointing. Shares dropped like a stone ending the day nearly 6% down.
:t_up: 55.52% in the past month :t_up:
First cybertruck out of production - let's see how enthusiastic the market is next week:)
In conjunction with Q2 earnings release
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhhYj8uCluM
These diesel heads are pretty smitten with the cybertruck.Have finally bought a first parcel of shares,am prepared for some volatility ahead
Good interview about the embedded value in Tesla
https://hotcopper.com.au/opinion/con...for-the-future
Thanks for posting. As a Tesla investor it's good to revisit what the vision is to help deal with the day to day ups and downs!
Cheers,Swala,yes like now ehh.Hetes some int comments from Markets Insider
First, Tesla needs a response to the negative growth trend that's developing within China, where homegrown firms such as BYD are chipping away Tesla's share of Chinese demand.
The company will need to detail its strategy for how to regain this key market, and remain competitive against rival competitors — both offshore and domestic.
Second, Tesla's must offer realistic and clear guidance for its growth, margins, and free cash flow. Otherwise, this remains a "guessing game" for analysts and fuels uncertainty, Ives warned.
Third, clarity on whether Tesla is still developing the Model 2 car needs to happen. Confusion first started when Reuters reported that the company would ditch these plans to instead create a robotaxi platform, which Musk later denied.
"If Tesla does not come out with a Model 2 the next 12 to 18 months,thesecond growth wave will not come. Trading in Model 2 for robotaxis would be a tragic gamble in our opinion as full autonomy we do not see until 2030 for the industry," Ives said.
Fourth, it's time for Tesla to address its plans around artificial intelligence, and end uncertainty as to whether these initiatives will even remain in Tesla's domain. That's after Musk threatened to pull these projects outside of the company, unless he receives a 25% ownership stake in the firm.
Finally, Tesla needs to show-off these developments, by announcing an "AI day."
"The AI story, autonomous, FSD, Optimus, robots is another major value to the Tesla story but it's all behind closed doors," Ives said. "The Street needs to understand the roadmap, monetization, and overall strategy for the AI story at Tesla which right now is getting no credit for its AI endeavors."
Swinging times with Tesla,phew.
Tesla jumps in trading, after Chief Executive Elon Musk secured a crucial victory on a quickfire trip to China.Beijing gave it's blessing for Tesla to roll out it's advanced driver assisted tech
You're not wrong,!
"Taiwan company TSMC has expanded production of Dojo chips for Tesla FSD training. Tom Zhu moving back from USA to China gigafactory. Cyber Cab looks to begin initial production in China. Phew. That's just today's news.
Plus new Tesla bot video."
That's just today!
Swala here's a very detailed flyover of the giga factory!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-vI-5S3d7s
Yes,lots of moving parts here plus Musk a very divisive character.Quite alot of risk imo . I may sell and sit on sidelines at some point,awaiting more news next few months.
Swala ,I ve taken profits into this uplift.Im not convinced Robotaxis won't be delayed a while yet plusit seems EVs are off the boil ATM with hybrids more popular.Of course I could be completely wrong and miss a buy back in chance:) Cheers.