Originally Posted by
Catalyst
A good turnaround result I thought.
Key metrics from today's FY10 result:
EBITDA = $31.8m (excl $3.2m abnormal costs pre-tax)
NPAT = $14.5m (excl $2.5m abnormal costs after-tax)
Net debt = $26.6m
FY dividend = 4.5c
# shares = 191.1m
Current share price = $0.78
Market cap = $149.1m
Current PE = $0.78 / ($14.5m/191.1m) = 10.3x
Current EV/EBITDA = ($149.1m + $26.6m) / $31.8m = 5.5x
Gross dividend yield = 4.5c / 78c / 70% = 8.2%
My valuation is around the $0.90 mark, based on:
PE of 12.0x = 12.0 x ($14.5m/191.1m) = $0.91
EV/EBITDA of 6.5x = (6.5 x $31.8m - 26.6m) / 191.1m = $0.94
If we use the company's guidance for FY11 of NPAT between $16 - $17m, it doesn't materially change my view on fair value:
Forecast NPAT = $16.5m midpoint
Forecast EBITDA = $33.0m (NPAT + $7.1m tax + $2.1m int + $7.2m dep'n/amort'n)
Using slightly lower multiples given it is a year away, I still get values around the $0.90 - $1.00 mark:
PE of 11.5x = 11.5 x ($16.5m/191.1m) = $1.00
EV/EBITDA of 6.0x = (6.0 x $33.0m - $26.6m) / 191.1m = $0.90
Anyone got any different values?