Lots of CBD going around....
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If you believe the borders will be open this time next year with some sort of certificate for travel health. Imagine the new insurance you will have to pay to travel and the new cost structures. Then maybe after they have used most of the 900 at n% the cash burn will be what? Morning syndrome calculates according to what model release with what level of seats occupied? Oh please in this environment they will have to rebuild the airport , already planning in place and up the staffing requirements unless its all automated including an automated vaccine jab as you pass the nursing staff robot supplied by abbot labs....
cost to business travel 1/3 higher than before maybe even higher and then what is the model for profit again?
i dont think a MAV model like OCA is going to cut it all respects to MAV.
Its possible if its traveller beware and the traveller pays all costs for testing before boarding and on arrival, certificate stamped as a automated certificate like a passport that is recorded in the global passenger travel health certificate system. And all this for a only cold, imagine if it was really serious.
Are business travellers going to jump on a plane ? NOPE they will ZOOM it until face to face is actually required or VR it using a halo lens. Wait no one actually has a halo lens for business yet do they except a few people modelling the Mars Rovers at Nasa.
Airs share price like shooting ducks with a salt round at 500 feet distance.
Its one for the birds!
ill repent later if MS gets it right but i think it will just be luck!
Cant wait to see the F YTD Pn statements and then add the whole 900...to the L section at what rate% Is it interest only turning to equity squeezing the share holders and potentially making he government a nice little profit now and into the future.
Nationalise the almost flightless bird by stealth.
Had a play with a Trimble HoloLens helmet the other day...a customer has just acquired a couple due to the inability to get the right foreign expertise on the ground in NZ. I felt like a complete retard trying to drive it, but cool experience and I'm sure once you've got the hang it, very useful. You could probably buy a 777 with the money. But yes, a clear example of how the whole Covid thing is likely to change business travel for ever.
Good point there - Tourism & Hospitality are probably going to changed for a lot longer than some would like to think/hope
and that's not only domestic but globally
Sure, things may improve faster with an effective vaccine, but there are still going to be destinations which almost no-one
would dare venture to ..
Govt adding their exorbitant usury to the AIR bubbles of debt, will only be a nice little profit to Govt if there is any way of recognising / extracting it. Anyone fancy their chances on seeing that now ? 2 years or 5 years down the track ?
It will be like their fancy borrowing bond programme - much much dent with many many large zero's ling long, but at the end of the day still a large infact huge dent which few would dare or be foolhardy enough to tamper with too much, for fear of disturbing the balance .. for what that may bring..
Many will know exactly what I'm referring to by that too ;)
Discl: I run away from AIR a few moons ago
ABC News speculates whether Virgin, underarm bowlers division, will be assert stripped by its new owner Bain Capital.
The article sees parallels with Bain's flying their US acquisition Toys R Us into the terrain.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...debts/12575776
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
I wonder who would be mad enough to lend an airline money to allow Bain to asset strip Virgin. Another problem would be to find a buyer for the aircraft at a sensible price for a lease back arrangement. Clearly Bain see the airline industry differently to me and probably most people who read and contribute to this thread.
ive been trying to get a halo lens for a while but i cant find a use for it ... no Mars Rover in the car port.
sorry Hololens...
big bulky looking thing
looking for a flying electric car, im surprised Musk man hasnt already got one in production.
with auckkkland back to level 2.5 i will back there most weeks , a flying car would be good lets see if the new expressway is indeed faster. should be.
"If Kiwis cant fly, do we need an airline?"
other air lines are still flying here and there are people travelling to europe back and forth, not many but i know several.
Stock today defying gravity ... if this keeps up it is a trading stock and i wonder if that is how the SA people see it. Or they think trans Tasman ski seasons are going to drive south island tourism and by next winter its a return to full trans tasman profits.
who here trades this on the Stochastic . 130-145.
Directors now selling out.Could the lights go out all together on this one?
Hmmm well .. still @ 136 pennies to be in the queue for a future pounding & pummeling courtesy of the Beehive crew in near future
that surely gotta make the eyes water ;)
Finally had time to read through the results properly and listen to the analyst call. Seems Beagle you were wrong about lots of things about Air NZ as usual.
1) Capital raise with results
They still have $1.1b (incl the $900m loan) as at Aug 25 and said in the call they want to keep it above $700m. So that's about 4 months of runway left before they need to raise capital depending on how long L2 continues.Quote:
I think the chances of a substantial capital raise at a deeply discounted price being announced contemporaneously with the full year result next week are quite high.
2) Cash burn
This was achieved in the first month of FY21.Quote:
I think they will be doing very well indeed if they can reduce the cash burn to $100m a month in FY21.
July: $85m
August: $108m (with only half a month of normal domestic flying)
They are now predicting cash burn of $65-$85m in a non social distancing month of which $25m in amorisation of the government loan and somewhere north of $25m for capital expenditure.
3) Write-downs
FY20 Aircraft impairment charge ($338 million) for the 777-200s.Quote:
If the 8 777-200's are worth $400m at an average age of 14 years with engines almost written off and airframes around 78% written off, then it would seem likely 7 bigger and more modern 777-300's at an average age of only 8 years are worth quite substantially more, perhaps $600-800m and if they have to be written off in the FY21 accounts that's another massive hit.
4) Flying Jetstar !! / More Competition
Jetstar have now up and stopped all flights twice. Pretty obvious that if you want reassurance that you will get to fly in these uncertain times or be receive a flight credit you should book with Air NZ.Quote:
QAN are vastly better capitalised than AIR and their subsidiary Jetstar have lots of spare planes and crew and I would suggest there is a lot of former AIR customers who have been seriously disaffected by their appallingly customer service in recent months. Both now have bad customer service, why pay more with AIR ?
As for competition, Air NZ are the only ones flying.
I was struck by two things, how well they had brought costs down and how surprised they were by the domestic demand bounce back in L1. They were also intent on maintaining optionality to both scale up and scale down the business as required in case international demand bounced back just as fast.
This was a hallmark of Air NZ over the last 2 decades. e.g. While the 777-200s are written off they have not been sold and can be brought back if needed.
A few quotes, capacity is domestic capacity:
Quote:
Cargo flights continue to exceed expectations, on a revenue basis now equates to ~30% of our previous longhaul business
Quote:
Not only were we operating almost 70% of our pre-COVID-19 domestic capacity in July, we had average load factors of around 80%. Meaning not only were we flying, we were flying at or around optimum capacity.
Quote:
in early August we were also starting to see the return of our corporate customers, at around 65% of pre-COVID-19 levels
So before the COVID resurgence they had real momentum and you can see how much of a spanner in the works the current restrictions are. Their future is tied to NZ's. If we can get back to L1, then Air NZ should survive and revive ok even without much of an international business.Quote:
So we – as of the lockdown we were planning to get to 80% - 90% of pre-COVID capacity quite quickly.
Fill ya boots man, its a screaming bargain. What could possibly go wrong :D and how can you possibly lose :p