Oh dear ... and this coming from a Trump supporter :p
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Damn this is dropping fast
wow quite the turbulence...
Nervous mum and dad. Gave me another opportunity to top up more 20k volumes at 3.20. :t_up:
sorry my fat finger caused it
Good move -ADRs on the US market
That'll be attractive for those seekingalpha disciples
Another boost for AIR share price.
A few punters have told me they topped up big time at 320 .........didn't seem enough volume gone through to satisfy all their demand .....hmmmm
Quote:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by dagdaniel1 http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/...post-right.png
Damn this is dropping fast
And that is just a small example of HFT robots being triggered...
small volume, numerous fast trades
order fulfilled here.
83 11:12 3.20 600 $1,920.00 82 11:12 3.20 530 $1,696.00 81 11:12 3.20 9,470 $30,304.00 80 11:12 3.20 530 $1,696.00 79 11:11 3.19 8,500 $27,115.00 78 11:11 3.19 1,271 $4,054.49 77 11:10 3.19 5,000 $15,950.00 76 11:10 3.20 650 $2,080.00 75 11:10 3.20 3,320 $10,624.00 74 11:10 3.20 322 $1,030.40 73 11:10 3.20 1,100 $3,520.00 72 11:10 3.20 258 $825.60 71 11:09 3.20 3,960 $12,672.00 70 11:09 3.20 1,040 $3,328.00 69 11:09 3.20 100 $320.00
it's not all mine. my order was filled between these trades.after that price straight jumped to 3.28 otherwise have topped up more 20k to 30k volumes if stayed under 3.25 . love affair with AIR :cool:. made me more rich in last 5 yrs :t_up:. 100% portfolio in AIR. holding over 230k volumes. no risk no gain simple is that.
hope some punters doubt may have cleared :cool:
You're most welcome and I am pleased you've done well. Definitely an element of some people looking to lock in their profit on some of their investment, SP has close to doubled in the last 10 months. On the other subject, some of it is good natured and some of it not so much. I will leave it for others to ponder why some posters consistently seem to give cryptic answers.
Well done Eval, sweet timing, hope it works out well for you.
Migration / Tourism soar to new record level's ! Got to be good for AIR as is the new ADR over the counter trading facility in the U.S., (good for liquidity which is almost always a good thing). http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...al-recordshtml
Unfortunately I was in an important meeting this morning so missed the opportunity at $3.20 but very sweet timing for those of you who were quick !
Admittedly I havent looked at AIR for a long time but im wondering whats driving the current valuation. A quick review of their financials shows every dollar of operating cash is plowed back into capex and the dividend is being funded with debt for the last 6 years or so. Is there something obvious that im missing?
Thanks Beagle. Doing it this for quite sometimes. No risk no gain. Well managed company. it doesn't concern me if sp retrace. company maintained profitablity and paid a dividend right through the financial crisis what else we want.
Yes those impravise tourism jump and not expecting to be slow down anytime soon. more middle class peoples can afford to fly then ever before.
And funny some punters need a artefacts to clear their doubts :D
If you are referring to my post Beagle, its just a heads up to new investors and a reminder for longer term traders that robot trading software has basic fundamental flaws inherent in it, and when its parameters are exceeded things can go downhill very quickly. It was robot trading that caused the 2010-2011 flash crashes on the American market.
The main thing is ... Dont Panic.... Flash crashes happen, and often they reverse almost as quickly after the numerous "Stop Loss" limits are achieved.
No opersating stats this week ...eval did say the 23rd so Monday it will be
I'll be looking to see if H2 passenger revenues are going to be UP at least 4% on pcp to offset the 4% DOWN in H1
Will then be able to assess how close operating profits will be to $575m ....or whather it is only $530m (more than $525m)
Sorry mean to be by 24/07.
I'm sure the OPS stats will delight most of you next week.
Very good come back after kiwi mum and dad unleashed this morning. They were in very hurry (power of the thread :cool:). thanks to those mum & dad that gave me opportunity to top up more at nice price.
Off to NY tomorrow for board meeting next week. Looking forward to meal service and wine in business class :cool:.
Have a good weekend to you all. Enjoy
Well done to those cunning enough to snap up a few at $3.20 this morning.
Was looking closely last couple days...about to put an order in at $3.25 before went to Tauranga this morning..but changed my mind because open cncbc and read the OPEC meeting....
well done guys who bought at $3.20...
Bit hypocritical of airlines to complain about drunken passengers when the moment you sit down they bring a trolley round loaded with spirits. Plus they preach the benefits of staying hydrated on the plane, but wont let you take water on board. My problem is I like a drink, and on a long boring flight it too tempting to wade into the booze trolley just to make the time pass faster. No wonder always arrive feeling like death.
.........you have to be crafty and be like Quick Draw McGraw to profit from these mums and dads eh. First in first served, esp if the readies are on hand.
While in the USA you should catch up with some of your old investment banker contacts to gauge what interest there might be in the likes of AIR (as an investment that is). Be interested to hear.
Hey Raz..you get into using noise cancelling headphones on all your long haul trips ? Apparently these ones are the business when it comes to comfort.
https://www.cnet.com/products/bose-quietcomfort-35/
ratkin, I guess you could try the above and a sleeping pill and ease up a little on the drink you might arrive feeling a bit better ?
I have some "beats" although these bose ones now are the ones to be seen with..I would say vital if you travel economy internationally..will block the family noise if you end up too close and domestic flights overseas..if flying premium only need them for the music quality!:-)
ps Any one want some etickets for the crusaders game tonight pm me..good seats..stuck in Dunedin and will not make it!
All those others are redundant since wireless IQ Buds arrived from Nuheara (NUH on the ASX)
Hear What You Want to Hear - Life Changing Wireless Earbuds
Highly likely just some a bit tight set automatic stop-losses. Doubt that many mum and dad investors would use them.
I guess time will tell - but maybe the people who set these stop losses are at the end the lucky ones? Capital conservation is an important investment principle.
Discl: don't (hold) and didn't (sell);
Ah yes - and would expect AIR's next update to be positive (still reflecting the Lions tour), but not so sure about the one which will follow next. Remember - markets are forwards looking ...
That's for sure. Readies need to be little smart and not completely dumb. When someone say jump or board doesn't mean have to follow and act. Everyone have their own opinions and sentiments.
I have seen this type of actions time to time. At end of February/march earlier similar thing happened with A2M 2-3 days lafter after 1h17 announcement. When scared kiwi mum/dad started dumping in morning before ASX open. I took the opportunity to buy ATM @ 2.28 (22cents cheaper) and sold it when first time it hit to 3.80 in May. Made a healthy profit of over $80k in short periods.
We all are here to make money 💰. Just need to be little smart with act.
Going to catch up couple of Friends. One is still working at Morgan Stanley.
Looking at the trades between 10:30am to 11:20am don't think it was related to automatic stop-losses. now a days can have own online trading accounts don't necessary have to contact brokers to sell/buy. Most of the mum/dad uses online to manage the trades.
Let see what comes out on 23/08 annual results.
OPEC meeting is early next week. Doesn't look that bright OIL future. for sure OIL is going to be tumble in 2018.
Yep, got to act fast .....and with conviction to make a bob eh. I don't have the wherewithal to look at price actions every minute of the day - I leave that to you hungry guys.
Eval, I would have taken you for a Merrill Lynch type of guy.
Anyway have a good catchup with your friends - see if they know about AIR as a great investment.
Another boost by AIR
http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/indust...-Japan-flights
I wonder if the whispers of Chicago will come to fruition? We'll know soon enough no doubt.
Interesting events on the Friday I must say. I'm guessing some people read the announcement too fast (or just didn't read properly) panicked and thought their holdings were about to get diluted through a new share offer and started selling the entire boat. Good work to those ballsy enough to capitalise(pun intended).
Anyways, the result comes in a months time. Lets all gaze into our crystal balls and make some brave and foolish predictions. From memory, the interim result had 475m-525m predicted pre tax. Then we had the investor day where they said it would exceed the 525m mark. I guess they have information on forwards bookings at the time so there is a basis to it. It will be interesting to see if they blow it out of the water, would give the current share price some support.
Just checked into the Koru longue here in WGTN courtesy of my wife's Elite status(Never been in one before) About to enjoy lots of yummy food and drink. This time last year I was a large retail shareholder, things were pretty volatile back then on the Aircoaster. Just got a message that our flight has been delayed 45 mins, more time to pig out aye.
That scenario doesn't suit couta1!
OPerating stats for June tomorrow (I hope)
Will tell us how much better H2 has been compared to H1 (where passenger revenue was down 4%)
AIR guidance is 'more than $525m' ....FBU guidance is 'about $525m' - spooky both pick on this magic number of 525
Auckland-Chicago is 13,170 km, published maximum range for the Qantas 787-9 is 14,856 km, sufficient for Sydney - Chicago. Qantas is already flying the 787-9 Perth-London, which is 14,429 km. So Chicago is well in range to and from Auckland.
The AIR 787-9s yet to be delivered have more business and PE seats that the current planes, presumably with an eye to the heavier demand for these seats out of USA. Chicago would have to be a serious contender once these planes are delivered later this year, particularly as all the USA routes are doing well. A fire hydrant and 1 sq m grass patch is provided for inflight beagles.
The Swiss airline intelligence provider ch-aviation.com report that AIR will be looking at future widebody requirements later this year. My bet is that the 777X would have to be the favourite to eventually replace the 777-200 planes, which will be 20 years old in 2025. The 777X has a similar range to the 787-9, seats 100+ more passengers and will be similar setup to existing 777-300ER and the 787s (i.e. type commonality).
Thanks Robomo. You made some great points and thanks for the reminder about the different seating configuration of the forthcoming 787-9's. This would give them slightly longer range with less PAX load right ? Surely a sign that Chicago is indeed on the cards. Agree also with what you've said about the 777X. Was reading in Australian Aviation how Boeing may be looking at an ultra long range version of same. One day we might see Auckland to Europe non stop....might need a 2 sq m artificial grass patch for beagle exercise on a flight that long :)
I was in Hawaii a month ago and chatted to a lot of the tour operators we met about tourism (as you do!). They have increasing number of 'Snowbirds' coming from Northern USA during the American Winter, quite happy to now fly 8 hours to Hawaii compared to 3 to Florida for a similar comparative airfare they were paying 10 years ago. This correlates with the big increase in capacity by Hawaiian Airlines to the mainland states.
I would not be surprised to see AIR starting with x3 flights a week, perhaps more during the American winter to get those snowbirds down South to the NZ summer.
What we need is for Boeing to get the "Fast-and-High" Supersonic models off the drawing board and onto the runway. They are a logical choice for the Northern Continents to Deep Pacific routes... Realising of course that they are not allowed to go Supersonic over solid land due to the sonic boom passing over mom n pop's backyard, might wake the beagle from his afternoon siesta...
Whilst the over-water routing of AKL --> West Coast North America are suited to supersonic flights there is an economic barrier to this type of aircraft.
It takes an enormous amount of thrust to overcome the demons of gravity and drag.
The cost of this would restrict passengers to cabinet ministers having a jolly on the tax payer or Silicon Valley billionaires wanting to jump the citizenship queue. A technological breakthrough would be needed to make these aircraft economic.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
"We obey the laws of fluid dynamics in this house."
Homer J Simpson.
see weed reporting from Whagamata club. Not much talk on these ADR's from last weeks announcement. Not to sure on how it works, assume it makes it easier for Americans to buy up blocks of AIR shares. There won't be many left to buy if that's the case. Correct me if I'm wrong:confused:.
Implied 0% growth rate from 2017 onwards = (35(8.5+0)*4.4/3.5)/100 = $3.74
Implied 1% growth rate from 2017 onwards = (35(8.5+2)*4.4/3.5)/100 = $4.62
Aren't their earnings supposed to decline over the next 3-5 years?
Bit like the building cycle eh - activity goes up and down like other cyclicals and many get it wrong
But you have to make some ssumptions about the future when you take a punt on a company. don't you?
As your hero says "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" My hero Yogi Berra said something similar
35 -- EPS best guess for FY2017
(8.5+X) -- the much abused Graham formula
4.4/3.5 -- airline discount factor, accidentally inverted :(
Should read
0% growth = $0.35*(8.5+0)*3.5/4.4 = $2.37
1% growth = $0.35*(8.5+2)*3.5/4.4 = $2.92
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Airliners are cyclical for sure as margins expand and contract in their usual cycles, But with each cycle AIR moves through they will hit lows and highs that are both higher than the previous cycles.
Negative growth rate over the next 4 years will most likely be followed by positive growth rate thereafter, the valuation takes a look at a 7-10 year average.
Graham revised the formula in 74 when he realised the greatest contributing factor behind stock values over the decade had been interest rates
At the time of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate (AAA 10-20y) was 4.4%.
To adjust this to the present we divide by todays AAA corporate bond rate which is around 3.5%
Seeing as IATA are predicting medium term growth in passenger travel at 5% and AIR are putting on about that level of new capacity if one uses 5 for the g part of Ben Graham's formula you get a really interesting answer !...where's some facts like the latest monthly operating stat's.
But that would put AIR on a PE of 18.5 or in the other formula hardyakker uses at would be 23 plus ...at the top of the cycle as well
Even you know that's plain stupid ..... also highlights that old school methods don't work these days (nice way of saying that Ben's formula has some inherent flaws in it for these times)
But its fun eh ....saying that intrinsic valie of AIR is over $7 - isn't the market stupid giving it a 50% discount to Bens valuation
LOL yes its fun mate but even using my tight fisted valuation approach of only paying 1g that gives 37 x (8.5 + 5) = $4.99 but the sceptics will say that AIR can't possibly grow at 5% per annum for the foreseeable future across the cycles...but you never know maybe they can ?, here's a thought... maybe all those brokers DCF models using a 2% terminal growth rate are just a wild guess too :)
Air management must be waiting eval to arrive in New York before releasing them ....maybe even needs his sign off
You may recall Cullen Airlines sold its interest in Virgin(Under Arm Bowlers Division) to HNA who swooped in quicker than a blow-fly targeting an outback dunny.
It now seems the HNA Group is having problems with its banking relationships;
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-...224505831.html
Should Cullen Airlines do a Kerry Packer/Allan Bond type deal and buy back in cheap?
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
No chance of that Marilyn...but here we go again on the aircoaster....who's game to get some more this time ?
Not me, to be honest I've been aghast at this thread and kind of had to look away. I own Air (average buy price 2.42) and like the company but the enthusiasm for this stock, especially after a 40 per cent increase in just three months, left me feeling anxious.
It's a relief to see it taking a breather to be honest. I can finally take a breath.
Sort of prefer slow and steady like HBL. ~7 & 14 % of portfolio.
back under 3 soon i reckon