Attachment 10169 Ask and you shall receive
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Attachment 10169 Ask and you shall receive
Nice, I didn’t realize they’d actually got on with making A2 ice cream. I mostly made my comment in jest but it wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world for ATM and/or SYM to buy out some of Fonterra’s assets if they’re being sold. Provided the value stacks up of course. Gotta do something with all that spare cash.
Thanks T-rex and Mondo for the posts re A2m Ice-cream. Exciting development in key Aust market.
Meanwhile an NBR article (behind their pay wall,) describes how three NZ analyst firms have upgraded their expectations for ATM. FNZC see val at at NZ$12.20. Forsyth call a target price of $13.65. Milford are cited as upgrading expectations tho it seems they do not give a SP projection.
This will be a Woolworths Australia product. For those into food labels, ingredients are Reconstituted a2 Milk [Skim (52%)], Cream [From a2 Milk (27%)], Glucose Syrup (Wheat), Sugar, Maltodextrin, Vegetable Origin Emulsifier [471 (Soy)], Vegetable Gums (412, 410, 407a), Natural Flavour, Natural Colour (160a).
From a marketing perspective the advertising says "Our cows produce a great tasting fresh milk that is naturally rich in A2 protein - You'll love the difference".
Mini is right with Woolworths. It's off the net. The sign says 'new' but the pic would've been from early 2016. Not sure of it's current production as every time I've checked it's 'out of stock'
Further research shows Coles ond Woolworths stopped stocking a2 ice cream and cream in mid 2017
Countdown here in NZ stock a non a2, A2 ice cream. http://applebyfarms.co.nz/
Morningstar new recommendation today is down from $14.60 to $13.70:t_down:. I wonder how they work that one out.....throwing a dart....
If you want to beat the monkey throwing a dart you have to think like one.
They get to meet around a board room table.
Then they order their coffees (A Venti vanilla latte with extra caramel and whipped cream, steamed to 180 degrees, with whole milk and extra whipped cream and caramel in a short cup on the side or a Venti upside down, caramel macchiato, steamed with half and half to 108 degrees, extra caramel lining the cup, then caramel on top of the drink, then extra whipped cream, then even more caramel on the top of that, and cinnamon on top of that
Then they discuss their latest Instagram / Snapchat / Grinder whatever social media hook-ups that weekend
Then they discuss the latest sports results
Then their coffees arrive and they spend the next half hour complaining about the temperature, density of froth and depth of flavour of the beans.
Then the raise the latest issues with their performance cars and how the marque isn’t living up to expectations
Then the older / wiser ones, as an aside, complain about the increase in next terms school fees and how Matilda and Rupert will just have to expect less on their next overseas school holidays.
Then someone mentions the meeting agenda.
Item one (quickly worked through) is reviewing success with last round of SP predictions
Item two is reviewing current predictions. Conversation goes something like “lets knock a buck off ($14.60)” “no – that’s too obvious – punters wont think we have done much analysis to come up with a round number” “Right. Best we don’t make it more than a buck or punters will think we were pretty useless first time around” “Right, lets knock $0.90 off” “Done. It has a nice ring to it.”
Meeting adjourns for lunch.
This afternoon game. Who has just quit 2.7m shares at $10.43
Did no one else see TV three this morning...your Jane voted top boss in nz
Don't put me off my breakfast:t_down:.
Here is the link to the article...
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU181...ship-index.htm
5 million shares just went through on the ASX :scared:. Some lucky institution just picked a steal grabbing theses on a forward PE of no more than 28.
Maybe your's is delayed?
Mine: https://i.imgur.com/4IP4Y7Z.png
News just out.....Macquarie adding to their various stakes
Summary for Macquarie Group Limited
For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 37,995,045
Macquarie Bank Limited - 31,334,703
Macquarie Investment Management Global Ltd - 169,311
Macquarie Investment Management Australia Ltd - 5,613,628
Macquarie Investment Management Ltd - 877,403
(b) total in class: 734,797,297
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.17%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,--
(a) total number held in class: 31,805,413
Macquarie Bank Limited - 25,050,373
Macquarie Investment Management Global Ltd - 182,362
Macquarie Investment Management Australia Ltd - 5,695,835
Macquarie Investment Management Ltd - 871,343
Macquarie Securities (New Zealand) Ltd - 5,500
(b) total in class: 734,797,297
(c) total percentage held in class: 4.33%
They actually have reduced their holdings.
Yes they have. Why? "Borrowing to Return". It helps to read the disclosure.
We in NZ aren't really tuned into the large brokers/fundies game on the ASX, their shorting, going long, contrary trades, algo bots trading, who they represent, etc etc. It is confusing for many, probably not even on the radar for most, and frankly it's immaterial to the average Joe who buys a stake and rides out the day to day stuff. Just distracting noise best ignored, unless you're a very savvy well resourced and informed trader.
Nice gain for the day...... no doubt the SML results helped. Let's hope the upwards momentum continues in the weeks ahead.
Last time Mark and I agreed ATM share price took off
Will go over 11 bucks oday and maybe 12 bucks tomorrow
Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
29/11/18, 6:43 AM
Eventful night. Powell suggests US interest rates are close to neutral, driving a big rally in stock, plus our 6wk old baby slept through the night. NZX likely to get some good support today, particularly growth stocks like ATM I would think.
I'm usually not one for short term gains but with the Dow raising after the Fed Chair speech but more importantly A2 broke several TA hurdles yesterday on the ASX so wise TA money should flood in and short positions will be covered.
Resistance today @ A$10.38 (NZ$11.06 @.9384)
This Huawei carry on ...here and Australia
Could China do something to cut back on IF from ANZ as a retaliation.
Looks like a big drop due to rebalancing
HaHa just shows you that TA comes second to the big boys games at any point, chart showed a breakout was about to occur a few days ago with the bolly bands squeezing along with other indicators showing a positive turn. Continuation of any breakout will now be determined by the Trumpets mouth over the weekend.Lol
I thought the TA was working quite well, Daily chart log scale. I only TA the A2M as it has the trading volume.
To simplify my usually very messy charts, I've removed all the Indicator noise and kept only the price action, supports & resistance lines and just the basic 50/200 EMA's.
You can see that yesterday the SP failed (indecision candle) at the top (resistance) of the Andrews Pitchfork (a kind of shorter term channel), suggesting a down day today, which happened.
The sell off today wasn't some big boys smashing the buy side, it was progressive selling into the bids, declining throughout the trading day with a few failed rallies. (drill into the 1 minute chart).
The rainbow background is the Fibs, it's remarkable how often the share price respects the .382 and .618 fibs. The .50 fib isn't really a fib, but it comes into play frequently with this high volume volatile stock.
I don't use this chart for prediction, I use it for reaction. Having a plan either way the SP moves is the basis, but TA suggests where the decision points are likely to be.
When I'm truely focused on the inflection points, on the day I'll drill down into the 1 minute chart, but that's totally consuming and not easily sustained if one has a day job as well.
TA is good, even essential imho, but it takes practice, time, confidence to act on it, willingness to flex with the learnings. But without it, I'd have nothing to do with something as volatile as this share is!
Attachment 10185
Good old TA.
A pattern for every occaision. :mellow:
C'mon Jan. You are paid a lot of money to make sure what you say is correct. Spot the mistake:
"
The new e-commerce law comes into effect from 1 January 2018, with the latest policy providing for a further three-month grace period to 31 March 2019, to ensure a smooth transition by CBEC companies to meet the new regulatory requirements. The Company and its major trading partners selling English label products to Chinese consumers are confident all requirements will be met on or before 31 March 2019. The a2 Milk Company Limited Jayne Hrdlicka Managing Director and CEO End CA:00327700 For:ATM Type:GENERAL Time:2018-12-03 08:30:41"
You would think that official announcements to the NZX would get proof read before release wouldn't you. Amateur hour yet again...its got to be a bit of a worry when the bare basics are not done right.
Its only 2017 isn't it?
Onwards and upwards from here....santa rally come early for ATM holders.
Only you old sooks could get mad at a clerical error from an admin staff
Latest Keith Woodford installment - Page 31
https://issuu.com/farmersweeklynz/do...68707/66097468
A recent take on what the Daigou channel means for A2M. 30,000 parcels a day!
Jayne Hrdlicka, CEO of the A2 milk company, said.
“You can imagine… every month we are increasing production quite significantly.”
https://vimeo.com/304038218
DOW pre-trading up over 680 points so expecting a GREAT day tomorrow :p
Ahem, perhaps you are splitting hairs.
ATM has multiple supply contracts with multiple producers in multiple countries. This is the essence of ATM's disruptive 'low capital' model.
Sure, ATM's IF is currently primarily produced by SML, however this can change, particularly as the partnership with Fonterra develops.
Not so sure about this.
Synlait says they are holding the IP to the A2 infant formula (there is more than milk in it ;); as well as holding the import licence for the A2 formula into China. I don't see why we should not believe them.
Nobody else can legally manufacture this formula nor sell it into China.
Any other company first would need to develop their own formula (which would be different to the Synlait A2 formula) - and than they would need to go through the whole approval process with the Chinese authorities.
Not impossible, but it would take considerable time and money.
In my view it is more likely that A2 will use the other A2 sources to produce different A2 milk products (like liquid milk, cheese, ...) which are lower margin.
Obviously - A2 could go for a takeover of Synlait, than they would own the IP and the licences. Mental note ... buy some more SML ;);
Good points and I agree in general. However, I would not rule out the option that ATM could well go down the IF route with another supplier/producer.
This could be achieved by establishing another product such as LIF (Liquid infant formula) or even under the umbrella of another brand licensed to A2.
You say developing another brand/formula is possible but would take "considerable time and money" however a take over of SML would be just as expensive (or more expensive) and could be just as fraught.
A take over would require Bright Dairy & Food Co., Ltd. approval. And I am very sure the Chinese wouldn't sell their stakes as easy as you may think. Simply their holding in SML isn't just about money, it's a national importance, security of dairy supply to China.
Quite right and why would A2M want to upset their Chinese owner in this crucial market.
Adding to the points I make above, supplying the ATM IF market in China is crucial to ATM (and SML), however there is also a need for ATM to lessen it's Chinese exposure, by expanding into other Asian markets.
While SML is important to ATM in the Chinese market, we should not ignore the possibility that another ATM IF from another supplier/producer could be used under license to A2, to supply other Asian markets, Korea, Japan, Singapore and even India.
(I stress this is all pure speculation from a long term holder and ATM watcher - DYOR.)
if SML makes the IF (and they make it under a formula patented license )
and if SML has the license to sell it in China
I'm struggling with what A2M actually do to add value in this milk supply chain.
:p
Good question. But first a clarification - I said that SML hold the IP for the formula, not that it is a patent. There are many things which are not patentable (including recipees and similar), but others are still not allowed to copy it (try to create an exact copy of Coca Cola and sell it and you will find out what I mean).
It is my understanding that SML created this formula specifically for A2 ... and I am pretty sure that they signed contracts which make sure that they can't sell this formula (and certainly not under the A2 brand) to anybody else than A2.
Ah yes - and A2 obviously owns the brand - i.e. the name and probably the design of the cans.
So - I guess it looks like these two sit together in the boat. My initial point was only that it wouldn't be easy for A2 to just get somebody else to produce as well infant formula (and certainly not the current IF they sell into the Chinese market).
Vanguard Group Inc has taken a fancy to ATM. Now holding 5%
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...time-last-year
Interesting article on the possible sale of Tip-Top. Wonder if ATM/SML could be possible suitors. or maybe a float? Who knows
I think Westland Co-op would be a better option. Their values align quite well with SML.
From Westlands last Annual Report.
However, as previously discussed, full implementation of the strategy is likely to require significant new capital. The Board is conscious we have relatively high debt levels and limited financial flexibility. It is therefore timely to look ahead and consider the options that can provide a sustained,higher payout and improve the company’s financial flexibility. Obtaining new capital would make a significant difference to the Co-operative.
I wondered about the Westland/SML combo recently also. My view is that SML wouldn't go near a Co-op model with a barge pole so would look to acquire Westland outright. I'm no expert in this but I would suppose this sale would then require Westland Co-op member approval to proceed. My guess is this would get messy pretty quickly.
Jayne is purging...
Could be a few more. Michael Bracka hadnt been there long. A year and a bit - perhaps not enough runs on the board.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...082/292097.pdf
Probably bring in more of her former girlfriends from JetStar so they can enjoy high tea at many of the Michelin star restaurants around the world.
Get rid of the old management after all they were such dreadful "underperformers" Good luck to holders...a poor CEO can really wreck havoc with a good company.
Just under 50m shares shorted!
Either they are very right or going to be very wrong when they cover!
Recent NZ$ dollar strength versus A$ has not helped volatility.
Here's hoping that 12/12 Shopping Extravaganza may reward holders with a breakout SP
DOW futures appears to be recovering nicely for a positive Monday open (NZ Tues)
Nice to see ATM holding up well this week.
$10.89 at close today. At the end of Dec 2017 ATM was $8.07, so a gain for the year around 35% seems possible. Not bad given the overall state of the markets in 2018.
For sure, nice to see a true growth company SP rebelling against the the wider market doldrums. It will attract attention, money goes looking for upside when all around it's downside. Those 10/11 Oct lows were great buying but with the sentiment at the time it's understandable if few took advantage of it. Nevertheless, A2M (which I chart as ATM is too illiquid by comparison), the pattern described recently has broken out, back tested and it's the 200MA resistance above that's next on the agenda, with the declining trendline above that. Big ask in a sh1t market, but as long as those growth numbers keep coming in, it's on the cards.
Nice to see ATM back above $NZ11.00 today (hope I don't put a hex on it!)
Apparently Motley Fool is reporting that Goldman Sachs are noting that A2 had a strong month sales month in the Chinese on-line market. GS believes that the online sales pick-up since September has not yet been captured by the A2 share price and has a buy rating and NZ$13.40 (A$12.72) price target.
......as always DYOR
Normally NZ follows ASX with ATM but today NZX seems to be weak with a 25cents difference with NZX price down. Wonder why??
I see some company has noticed a so called Top Triangle pattern and reckons the price will fall to the $6.40-$7.00 range, these guys should have done more Geometry at school, obvious shorters or some other hidden motive.Lol
Finishes on an $11.08 NZ equivalent on a tough day, I love this stock it's been so good to me.
It definitely looks like the current phase up (I will call it wave 4) looks corrective and hence there is likely to be more impulsive down movements.
Attachment 10202
If waves 1,2,&3 as per my count shown were actually a,b,& c then our current phase would be a wave 1 again - but it really doesnt look like that to me
(Disclaimer - not short, not long ATM - long SML - so I have no interest in it going down and would prefer it didnt given the correlation with SML
Jeez ...Vanguard up to 7%
Bought 14 million shares the other day
Seems an awful lot to buy in one go just for passive tracking of indices. Mind you they bought heaps of FPH and CNU as well ...but no TRA
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...636/292716.pdf