Longterm maybe
This from Craigs
"Why keep Tiwai around? due to the fear of short term profit decline
We highlight that Tiwai represents less than 7% of current industry revenue, and that if we re move the thermal costs associated with “marginal load” then it is actually costing the industry so why does it remain? While one consideration are the costs associated withredirecting load if Tiwai closed, we believe that the core driver of behaviour is the short-term negative profit impact of the rebalancing of generation supply and retail share. This reconfiguration period will likely see profits fall materially , and, even though we would expect them to recover, the industry’s management and investors are never content to take short-termpain for longer-term certainty and gain. Not to be underestimated, there is the uncertainty of howan 84% renewable market pre closure moving to a 94% renewable market post closure willperform. "