Well hopefully that clears up the overhang and we get to see an appreciable rise in the share price prior to end of year announcements. Or maybe its still a bit early yet?
At le
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The US launch is upon us, so what is it worth;
What do Edison Say ?
Back in September when they initiated coverage they had this to say;
“Our valuation of Pacific Edge is based on a DCF using free cash flow and a WACC of 12.5%. We incorporate Pacific Edge’s two lead products only into our valuation, forecasting peak sales of NZ$162m for Cxbladderdetect and NZ$23m for Cxbladdertriage by 2025. We see considerable scope for a re-rating of the shares as evidence of successful commercialisation emerges”
That NZ$23M (US$17M) in Cxbladder(triage) revenues at a US price point of US$600 equates to a peak potential of just 28,750 sales per annum in ten years from now.
Edison then are telling us that they expect Pacific Edge to have, in ten year’s time, a market share for Cxbladder(triage) of just;
= 28,750 / 2,000,000 = 1.4% market share in 2025, …. ,what total bollocks.
Just one of the reasons why Edison have such a low ball valuation for Pacific Edge at $1.16,
I think we may well soon see them revising their numbers quite dramatically for Cxbladder(triage), shortly after the US launch perhaps.
What About Kaiser Permanente ?
Pacific Edge tell us,
“If, as expected, Kaiser adopts commercially, the successful outcome will be viewed by the US healthcare community as a significant clinical endorsement”
Should KP fully adopt Cxbladder(triage) across all their facilities as a primary screening tool their contribution to market share would be;
= (9.1 / 318) x 2,000,000 = 57,000 test per annum, or 2.9% market share from 2015 onwards
What If Pacific Edge Achieved 10% Market Share ?
10% market share at a price point of US$600 would be worth;
= 10% x 2,000,000 = 200,000 tests per annum, or US$120M in annual revenues.
Add that to Cxbladder(detect) revenues, and there is all the potential in the world.
I dont think you can count on PEB getting $600 for each test.
Hi MAC, agree. Potential for Triage way understated, although Edison did say it's estimate of $23m was a conservative one "given the uncertainty of market acceptance for this yet-to-be launched test and some potential overlap of the customer base" The fact that they recognised a potential "overlap" suggests to me that they did not understand Triage particularly well. So I think it was just a nominal stab in the dark. Too many unknowns.
But the potential for Triage cannot be denied. It is, afterall, what the market is screaming out for. A Screening tool for those presenting with haematuria. It is a game changer, and the KP study is the springboard for this.
A question to the brain trust,
Are there two separate user programmes for Kaiser? One for Detect and one for Triage,
Or have they been combined?
Do we think the results/contracts would be published/released? Or is this just business as usual, no need to release?
Just a little confused when this user programme is due to finish, early this year or September.
Hi Carpenterjoe,
It’s a single 2,000 patient user programme for Cxbladder(triage) only, per page nine of the recent presentation,
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf
Kaiser Permanente allocated staff late last year;
http://www.kp-scalresearch.org/Resea...t.aspx?eid=271
Pacific Edge have indicated that the user programme will complete this year, my feel is that it will probably be wrapped up and fully completed in the second half of the year, by which time all the results have been assessed, are ready for release, and a publication has been prepared and reviewed.
It may come with a concurrent KP sign up announcement too, so the schedule may be with KP, when they decide they are all good to go commercially.
For a significant clinical utility study like this we should anticipate that the outcomes should be published for the insurers to access, well, and for keen shareholders too.
kind regards, Mac
Thanks Mac,
Last years August announcement referred to CXbladder.
I assumed at the time they meant CXbladder Detect, I think that was the only product available to the Us market.
Reading back over it now, when Cxbladder technology is referred too, I automatically assume it's the whole Cxbladder arsenal.
All good, thanks mate
http://www.themercury.com.au/news/br...-1227302224826
or, you could take the CxBladder triage test.....
Presumably the beloved professor is now up to date on advances in cxbladder triage as this is the meeting highlighted on Pacific Edge's website under Calendar of Events. Do PEB actually attend these meetings because I see they are listed as healthcare exhibitions? If not, why not? If they do attend, loyal shareholders might be interested to know how it went.
Some word of mouth from cxbladder converted urologists at these bunfights would surely be spreading by now or are we still struggling with the almighty "dissonance" in Australia.
"Tear down this wall, Mr Darling."
(With apologies to Ronald Reagan):)
This is the one you want to keep your eye on
https://www.auanet.org/education/aua-annual-meeting.cfm
http://www.aua2015.org/exhibitors/