Well, I'm a passive investor so lollygagging describes my investment style pretty well. I'm "idle".
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Well, I'm a passive investor so lollygagging describes my investment style pretty well. I'm "idle".
Have we had capitulation yet?
Negative equity is a real problem.
Trouble is we would have had that anyway under the alternative with 10% unemployment.
It seems the developed world chose between high unemployment and defaulted loans, or high inflation.
Not yet ....Our KFL is still at 18% premium to underline assets ...that shows retail is still equity positive and not averse which should the case for capitulation
I was expecting KFL or other Fisher listed funds to revert back to historic small discounts to NAV but opposite happened ...KFL premium widened from 9% to 18%
Really finding that amazing and very very difficult to comprehend or justify ...will any seasoned investor will be holding on to them ...but people are which shows they still have big faith in equities coming back sooner while part of capital is getting eroded every quarter as dividend returns plus fund charges
Thats opposite of capitulation sentiment ....maybe we need to have a big suckers rally then a big bust to flush out such optimism to see capitulation
Fortunately NZX investors are not even following USA rallies up like rest of the world inspite of we having a much more defensive dividend paying market . We maybe be too cautious this time to get big capitulation or Fear
FMD has that potential ...see how HGH turned negative from big HMY based positive on that news . Even MFT etc underperformed .
Lack of capitulation also may highlight low ratio of retail participation in NZ ...we love our property investments ...may see capitulation there ...lol
If the housing market in the US holds up, this bear is OVER.
All are thinking about it mate
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...?mod=home-page
Is it more wisdom or its foolhardy on retails part ...only time will tell
At present it seems capitulation as we know and many waiting for mayn't happen this time
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...?mod=home-page
They also wondering and looking for it ...normally when too many people want something in markets then it never happens ...as markets mostly rewards minority
US 10 Year yields dropping big time as recession is almost certain . Oil also trending down . Copper is directionless at the moment
Bond buying going own ...will it lead to stocks selling ? Or both will be buoyant together as they fell together before
Recession churn is the current theme ....RMD big gainer recently