Very good observation and comparison. Thanks Beagle.
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Hmm - it's Sir John, not Sir Key ... but otherwise not sure about the good vibes. John Key cashing in an Australian award for "furthering the cooperation" while ordinary Kiwis get the boot from our Australian "friends" - incarcerated over there without charge, evicted, allowed to pay the full taxes but stripped of any rights ... Not a good look. Sir John would do well to decline this "honour".
Awesome chart
Containing the desire of getting the felt pen out and drawing over all the up and down lines
AIR share price never 'stable' - it always is going up steeply or going down sharply.
Spooky eh - but typical behaviour of a true cyclical.
Where to from here - 400 and then 500 ...........or is it one of those going down sharply periods and back to 200 or less.
Remember Mr P - the market giveth, but the market also taketh away (quickly)
As baa_baa says watch those stops
Great results coming out of Queenstown airport, this should be a good month for AIR, looking forward to the next monthly update in the next few days.
AIR investors, please fasten your seat belts before reading this: link
Nothing to concern by AIR investors. it's some silly marketing by the one airline CEO. Airlines are already making billions in extra services.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11892251
Get a feeling that Mr Market is waiting to see the latest op stats for June before the next leg up...
The acceleration vector trend appears to have diverged back around the 10th, 11th. Perhaps the International buy-in has already been accomplished ?. Only time will tell.
AIR has had major disruptions of late. 1/3 of their 777 fleet ended up in CHC on one particular day, each one of these events would have cost a couple of hundred thousand. In addition I understand numerous lightning strikes have occurred with planes AOGed for days. These can take a mil to fix. JUL ops figures aren't going to be pretty.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11892251
Interesting how things have changed over the last decade.
You might have missed it - PT responded to this question already ...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post674084
Ideally you read the whole thread, than you will understand ;);
GTI, surprised by more then half of ST forum members are anti-AIR. understand if company is not doing well but AIR is doing really really well compare to other companies listed on NZX. IMO those AIR haters have jump off the plane to early, missed the flight or they have some sort of mental issues (can't see the facts) expecting share price to be what was 4-5 years ago.
Strong words: "... haters", "some sort of mental issues". Contributions like that are usually a quite strong indicator that the SP is getting overheated. Whoever is interested - check out the PEB thread and correlate the occurrence of posts like above with the hype peak of said share.
discl: made money with AIR in the past and think they are a good company. Don't hold at current - too many other good looking gals with in my view less risks around ;).
Anti Air/Air Haters/Mental Issues, this thing must be in a bubble.:D
Really the 'haters' comment is ridiculous, but informative as the experienced here will take it as a sign of topping as emotion overtakes reason.
People can put all the faith they want to in the company FA but the market decides it's SP / cap value and history is on the side of the market. No newbie's bullish and provocative comments will change that, no offence meant to them.
Check stops, don't be blinded, be alert. This stock turns on a dime, when it turns, and punishes investors on the wrong side and rewards investors on the right side.
BAA
Have already made over 400k realised profit in AIR over the last 5 years and currently on paper over 180k AIR profit as of today's SP.
Reasons is because Have faith on the company and it's management.
Yes there is risk involved but risk is not only In AIrlines business its on every business you do has risk.
Will happily hold and will top up as SP moves....
And yes im newbie to this forum but not when its comes to investment.
And yes i know how TA and FA works. Don't have to teach ex investor banker
I've also held for over 5yrs, great thing is all these nice dividends have more than covered the initial capital. Topped up a while back at $1.80. All these gains have been a nice fat bonus.
I supposed if we have Mr Buffett's investment horizon, we will be fine. Having said that, everyone makes mistakes. He just sold 1/3 of his IBM stakes after >5 years of holding.
This quote shows Warren Buffett thinks in investing time frames of at least 5 years. But his holding period is preferably much longer…“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”&These quotes shows that a 10 year holding period is really what you should look for when examining stocks to buy.“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes”
Even 10 years is too short a time period for outstanding businesses.“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”&You should not buy any business and hold it for the long-run. Businesses with strong competitive advantages and quality managements are preferred long-term holdings.“Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre.”
Great businesses withstand the test of time. Time itself has been very favorable to the stock market.
Does anyone knows when the Ops stats will be released? Last one was 20th June.
Yes seasoned investors all have regrets, its just a matter of circumstance and timing. Many have remarkable successes as well. Question is whether the downside lessons are learned and the successes learned and on balance whether that was a good investing outcome. Interesting here that the noobs to the forum have become emboldened and espouse a bright future with no consideration for potential downside. Their argument would be way more plausible if they recognised the potential to be shafted and put forward a strategy to exit, just in case. A good time for caution if not just to quit their holding. Good spectator sport if nothing else 😄
The shrillness of some of the "its overpriced" calls is almost deafening so we're long overdue to compare some PE's
All data from 4 Traders average analyst estimates for 2017 as at 19 July.
Delta Airlines 9.76
United continental Holdings Ltd 10.43
American Airlines 10.65
Qantas 11.27
Air New Zealand 10.12
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/ AIR estimate is only $508m before tax to form that 10.12 PE.
First time poster, long time listener..
"Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy"
The share price is over priced at the moment without a huge earnings announcement. It will be interesting to see just how much of an effect the Lions tour and the Masters Games have had. Looks like the international players are jumping the gun on AIR, similarly to Qantas. All will be revealed on 23rd of August when the earnings come out. The general consensus seems to be that AIR are under promising and will over deliver based on the forecasts they've made.
On a long term, as much as I like AIR and how well their management are doing. Its hard to predict where this industry will be in 1-3 years let alone 10. At this point in time though, you really have to like your chances.
Disc: Holder (bought in at around $2 mark)
Well if we take you at your word..do I need to quote the post, nah most here did not miss it..they are just playing with you:-)
Unlike you i do not have the ego to think for a moment I could move the market..plain silly. Just provide comments as I see them, both ways:-)
The whole airline sector has been in a very strong up tread over the last 12 months and almost every airline I track has taken a breather over the past week. There are obviously a lot of very smart and wealthy people who've been buying up this sector! One of whom is the famous Buffet who often gets quoted around here although he didn't pay anything near theses prices and that's also true for most of us.
I'm personally not buying any more at theses prices but I'm not selling either.
Attachment 8999
It's getting a little bit fanatical in here. I sold out my holding as I don't think there's much room for further increases and I see better opportunities elsewhere. Not anti-air, just anti-air at this price. I could be wrong of course, it's happened before.
I like your post Beagle, the PEs are so cheap for all of them...i think that's why Mr B bought all of the US airlines. And for those who are skeptical about airlines, why would he buy in now when he used to called the airline industry a “death trap for investors”? The dynamics are changing and we have to look at airlines like never before.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/w...17-2?r=US&IR=T
Over priced relative to what other successful well managed airline ?...this question is open to anyone, not just Paper Tiger who has already been asked and didn't provide a real answer. Please can we have some common sense on here. If you're going to claim something is overpriced, overpriced relative to what other relevant metric or comparative company and why ? Overpriced relative to what other well managed company on the NZX ?
Stephen off to run Wizz
Hope he sells his shares at these elevated levels
Also, oil inventories are reported to be significantly down, raising the price of oil. Possible to result in a slight change of sentiment towards long term expectations, negative impact on SP expectations.
Starting to look a bit oversold recently;). Have noticed sp drops during the day and then bargain hunters come back in at end of day:t_up:. But in saying that, did a very kind deed and took an early div of 15% gain from last lot bought 3 and 4 weeks ago and sold 9% of my holding. Thought I would let a few new holders get in and enjoy the fun.:D My av price is now 2.71. If sp goes any lower before ex div, then will jump back in.
I do indeed and lets not forget the difference in the dividend yield ! Some people take for granted our ability to claim full imputation credits, (they shouldn't as not that many countries have such a system) so the ability to earn circa 8% gross on ordinary dividends, plus special dividends in due course is not to be sneered at. (20/344) / 0.72 = 8.07% gross. I suspect Warren Buffett would be even more keen if he could earn 8% dividends !
You mean Sir Les [http://sirlespatterson.com/] himself do you ?
So for a beagle and his admirers:
Tiger current AIR value is $2.85 and even at the present price is well overpriced.
[QAN is $4.54 and equally overpriced]
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
PS: This thread is a psychologist's paradise :t_up:
Another day of action, suspense and humour here on planet Air I see. I see the price drifting down as well, still far too expensive for Couta to take up an XXOS portion again, can't have a 3 in front for that to happen.
You will be delighted Couta at the downtrend personally I sold 1/3 of my modest holding on Monday at $3-55 the rest are running for free so relaxed.
@Eval don't copy, paste and post copyright content, just post a link. No need to be banned for thoughtless copyright infringements. We're loving your forthright contributions, it would be sad to see you go for such a minor detail.
Just saying.
On P/E, though, Air New Zealand looks 30% undervalued or so, especially given higher EPS growth. The airline carries a P/B of 1.7. Compared to a list of other airlines with positive EPS growth over the last five years, ANZFF looks undervalued
worth reading...for who thinks its a overvalue
Air New Zealand: Growth And 6% Dividends Where You Might Not Think To Look
https://seekingalpha.com/article/408...ght-think-look
Have a read the article...you may have to read few times to get better understanding :cool:. overseas instro thinks its still 30% undervalue + 35% growth for 1yr. you already knows how many % own by Overseas Instro.... current few sessions downtrends was expected no worries... just wait and watch.
Sincere Advise: Next time don't jump off the plane to early before its land :cool: turbulence happens... you already knows the consequences when you jump off the plane before its land :D . we can feel your pain and how badly is hurting you.
And it's like a rugby player watching from sideline and thinking when can i get............................................... ...
And if this Summer of Love happens in the US it'll be good for airline stocks, and AIR will do OK as well
https://seekingalpha.com/article/408...er-love-stocks
even the NZ version of Summer of Love 50 years ago was pretty cool
Could have been written by Mr Beagle. He's said all that plus more.
Does a poster who calls himself a private investor with 247 followers whose had 25 articles have much influence anyway.
Whatever it gives the warm fuzzies to the believers .....that's good as 4 bucks beckons
... but remember - the US police force shoots lovers to kill.
Which means AIR would only sell one way tickets and needs to fly back with empty seats. Seriously - who would want to go to this terrible, unwelcoming and unfriendly country? I tried to avoid going there before Trump, but now I make even sure that all my flights to Europe go over Asia ...
On the contrary I definitely got the joke above, your best one yet by miles (thank you for the excellent humor, the hound nearly split his sides with laughter), and good to see another recently joined poster got it too. Hopefully others will read the first few pages of this thread and enjoy the comedy too :)
Anyway back on topic, I wonder when the next monthly stat's will come out, must be any day now. Something of a correction appears to be emerging but we're still trading above the 30 day moving average and the annual result is just on one month away.
I see we're just above 74 cents U.S. now...should give a good opportunity for AIR to lock in some forward cover for the remaining capex to complete its fleet modernization program at an attractive exchange rate.
I don't totally understand the inside jokes between Roger and PT and whether its in good humour/faith or not, but for my two cents I have made exceptionally good returns on AIR in the circa 3 years since my initial investment, largely thanks to Roger whose posts are usually very informative and transparent (Rogers comments largely are the reasons I invested in the first place). No disrespect to PT, but I find his posts very cryptic, and not usually that informative or helpful at all!? So thankyou Roger.
Unfortunately I recently sold 30% of my holding at $2.81, and the balance at $3.20. Ever since I have desperately been awaiting a suitable re-investment point as I had intended this to be a long term hold purely for the dividend return. I concur with many on this forum that the company seems to be very well run. Surely the fact that they are making record profits in a time where they face/d very intense levels of new competition must be telling? If this level of profit occurs during times of massive competition - which seems to now be abating - this is a positive indicator? As far as I know, there is not a single valid negative argument against AIR (excluding arguments against the airline industry, and its associated risks as a whole). What is their not to like about AIR? I don't think its under-priced at present, but I also don't think its overpriced. Its about right perhaps, although I do think there is still going to be a lot of resistance to upward movement, given there must be a serious amount of people (like myself) who just want to lock in their profit, keeping pressure on the sell side.