One suspects the wrong colored suspenders are being worn Marilyn. So much black ink in the statement of financial performance it would stain red or pink suspenders :)
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One suspects the wrong colored suspenders are being worn Marilyn. So much black ink in the statement of financial performance it would stain red or pink suspenders :)
Plenty of fule left to A380
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner Nothing to concern oneself until we hit FL430 :)
Since I joined here in Jan 2016 trading five shares the share movement in AIR has been plain silly 😜
Yes Raz, I think silly is a good choice of words, re the Air share price movement over the last while, if you look up the definition of the word. I feel real sorry for the ones holding the can at the end of the row. The annual profit would need to be over 800 million to justify the current price.
Mates tell their mates when they're plain wrong. It really is this simple. The 10 year average PE is 11. At $575m before tax = 37 cps after tax. 11 x 37 = $4.07. Of course if they make more than $575m before tax then based on the decade average PE they're worth more. Just because a share has been cheap in the past doesn't necessarily mean it will revert to being a bargain anytime soon. If I thought they were overpriced I would be selling. I am continuing to hold all of my shares and have done for quite some time now and it continues to be my #1 market position by value.
One of the Rockefella's was once asked how he had made so much money and he replied that he had sold all his stock too early.
HaHa, probably the same brokers that didn't want a bar of the stock a few months ago, they don't give a toss about when your mates buy and sell, as long as they get two clips of the ticket. PS-Facts aren't going to persuade me to buy the stock at these lofty prices, in case you didn't realise, there are other excellent and safer dividend paying stocks on the NZX.
sorry sorry I have to delete...meant for SUM....sorry
I agree, I am an AIR flyer, the koru club for domestic flying is the only real offering in NZ putting them at the top of a list of one in my books but when it comes to international AIR are good but others are raising the bar. I flew Emirates today in an A380, their lounge in Melbourne is considerably better than AIR's, the planes seating and service are similar but overall I felt today that Emirates is one I will look at for international flights from here on and will quite likely be leaning towards them. It feels weird to say that having flown 95% AIR over the years but that's my current thoughts on it as an avid supporter for a long time.
I sold half my holding (not large) in the mid 2.30's range banking a good gain and still holding the other half with some loose stoploss' in place but happy to hold for now.
AIR domestic often offers a better package in economy than international for space. The Koru lounges are average and often crowded. The key advantage of Koru for me is the space seats and priority boarding.
It has been that way for a good five years. AIR is like Disneyland, they degraded their service, ask a premium and continue to get away with it given their strong brand. Usually only seasoned travellers look at the options. Combined with a strong brand a lot of flyers have limited options to many places or inferior competitors. i.e AKL - LAX i.e AA lack depth of service, Hawaiian airlines is an budget carrier to Honolulu etc.
If on your way to asia, ME or europe then the quality options open up, Singapore airlines, Emirates and Lufthansa offer superior economy, similar to what was provided for seating, hot towels and food service similar to the 80s on AIR, often at a better price, naturally with the technology of today. The premium services are simply another level.
Still AIRs strategy works and thats why I'm a shareholder not always a flyer.
Having flown Hawaiian recently, I have to say that their "Extra Comfort" seats are well worth the extra $150 or so in cost. Nowhere near as expensive or as flash as AIR's premium economy but actually very adequate for the 8 hours to Honolulu.
No actually it was fine, perhaps even a little on the chilly side (and I'm someone who tends to run hot so I really notice when the temperature gets up). Both my wife and I had blankets over us the whole time. Mind you it was a very new Airbus.
My wife and I are both people who like to stretch our legs out, so the extra leg room of the Extra Comfort seats was very welcome. Not quite so fussed about the padding in the seat, but it was fine for us, neither of us felt uncomfortable at the end.
The only thing I do think Hawaiian need to do is offer a bigger selection of movies. It's not that they aren't current, it's just that on a flight of that length I'm going to watch at least 2 movies, more likely 3 and I was struggling for something I wanted to watch by the end.
I think its perhaps time to lighten-up a bit. To lighten the mood here's an interesting look back at AIR's safety video's over the years http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11889319 What's you favorite ? For some strange reason :D mine is Safety in Paradise 2014.
I was discussing airline lounges with a seasoned international traveler. His take on the situation was airline lounges(not just Cullen Airlines) are often overcrowded bun fights. His preference was to use an up-market bar or restaurant where available. He said the cost averaged out to not much more than a lounge subscription with a more pleasant experience.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Not sure I'd agree. Has your seasoned international traveller a lot of long haul experience?
Not that easy to find in airports an upmarket bar / restaurant where you can have a shower - or a desk to do some work or a quiet place to restore after a long flight - or even some place to lie down, close your eyes and rely on the reception staff to wake you up for the next connection.
Agree however with some of the previous posters that the AIR lounges (I have seen) are certainly not the top of the cream. However - you have with the Koru card access to all STAR alliance lounges, and some of them are pretty good.
Is this the start of the deflation... maths trends look interesting
Monday and Tuesday were mostly all hype and no substantial big bids...
Time now 4:25 and the robots are back... must have just been a brief pause for a picnic on the way...
Good to see it comes back a bit. It was too hot.
U.S. airlines and QAN down ~ 2% overnight / today. No worries, just moving in line with the sector.
Looks like the afternoon rally is about to start with volume picking...
Repetition and reputation don't go hand in hand. Applies here and all threads. Look at Mod, for example who posts only occasionally and has huge rep, whereas others trot out the same old same old, day after day, usually re-enforcing what Mod said months ago. Choose wisely whose rhetoric one listens to, moreso what one follows. Just saying.
BAA
Don't see anyone on here with the same thinking on the special(s.) I reckon only ~ 75 cps in total FY20-FY22 when the capex holiday is in full swing. After completing their capex program in my opinion they need to get their gearing right down towards the bottom of the range before paying out special's hence I've made my own judgement call on the estimated amount and timing of specials.
Some people on here were barking that AIR was a screaming buy at $1.75 nine months ago and its doubled since then...and others...well I could go back and post some really good examples of "interesting calls" but that would be impolite but one thing other (perhaps new posters), might like to consider doing is having a look back at this thread in the Sept - December 2016 period when the shares were well under $2 and see who was holding a really negative view back then and see who on the other hand was backing the company 100%.
Roger, not sure whether you do yourself a lot of favours by continuously bagging posters who warned that the AIR euphoria might end some day (actually, I think I was one of them). Sure - use your licence to brag, but don't overdo it.
I don't think anybody said at that stage that AIR can't go up ... people (well, at least me) just pointed to the inherent risks in airlines which should (in my view) command a greater reward.
Now, obviously - some people (including yourself) took the risk - and so far are reaping the rewards. Good on you, but while risk taking is a trait, being lucky is just that. Look - if I tell my teenage son that it is stupid and risky to drive without wearing a seatbelt, than he might laugh at me. The next day he might tell me - look daddy, you told me it is dumb to drive without seat belt but I did do it and and I am fine. You have been wrong - ha ha ha. Same with you. We told you it is risky to buy airline shares, you bought them, the risks didn't eventuate (well, so far) and now you feel smug and over the moon.
As far as I am concerned - nobody can predict where the price of any share will go ... but I still see the risks circling around AIR (as around any other airline). Tourism is peaking - and running into its limits. The usual risks (increased competition, economic turndown, terrorism, pilots with mental health issues, volcanic eruptions) didn't go away - and the SP is clearly at a long term max, meaning that potential future rewards are dropping while the risks don't go away.
I guess it is up to any individual how they assess these risks. However - don't tell me you have been able to foresee that we had no major terror attack, no lost plane and no volcanic eruption over the recent period.
Discl: while I do have several children, they all are beyond their teens and none of them (to my best knowledge) ever drove without wearing a seatbelt - i.e. the example above is just made up;).
Certainly not "continuous", I absolutely refute that. All I am saying BP, (wasn't aimed at you) is that some posters made some very interesting calls on AIR when it was down under $2 in late 2016 and new members on here might like to go back on this thread and read some of the posts over that period. Not naming names but I am entitled too and was responding to Baa Baa's post which I am sure you would have gathered. Some posters are probably entitled to feel content having backed this company and its management through thick and thin and against a barrage of bearish comments on here in late 2016. All stocks carry risks BP.
BTW - New model Honda Civic won't even let you drive away until your seat belt is fastened, shuts off the electronic throttle until seat belt fastened. Brilliant safety device for my wife...say no more :)
Beagle / BP - I for one mentioned $1.50 was a possibly at the time- based on long term cyclical trends. Wasn't I really stupid
However been a great ride since - doubled my money since.
Have broken my long outstanding rule 'Don't invest in airlines winner'. Always thought it was tempting fate and if I bought a AIRplane would crash and I couldn't have lived knowing I might have been a cause if so many deaths, Still worried.
Also keep reminding myself of Mr P bit if wisdom 'the market giveth, but the market taketh away'. Especially good advise for a 'cyclical' like AIR which is currently trading at high multiples (modandum says high multiples only when profits are bad - but AIR heading to its 2nd highest ever profit ever)
None the less. $4 beckons soon. Good stuff
Bet you are glad Winner I talked you out of your superstitious hogwash :)...although I think one or two people landing at Wellington yesterday might have had cause for concern :eek2:
Look at this mate ....how not to land at Wellington. Did well the 2nd time around
Always quite a thrill when they decide to take off again while in the air - experienced it a few times myself
Amazing hyperlapse by Mark
http://instagram.com/p/BWdivhNg0Q7/
BP , can you explain -nobody can predict where the price of any share will go . Then , "SP is clearly at long term max " So sounds like you are calling a top and predicting it to go down ?
Nothing to concern.. heading to $4 very soon. Moners will moan who haven't got hands on this bird
Great choice Roger....its all about risk.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/h...%20Subscribers
You can get around the safety belt thing by buying a buckle that you can pop in independent of the belt.
And yes...I have AIR shares still, am trying to figure out whether to keep or sell as they are very high, and would like to thank the Beagle and Mod and others for all the opinions and analysis expressed. Very helpful.
Enjoy your Friday...lovely here in the Far North at the moment.
I think the problem I've got with all the spruikers and rampers on here is that as the price of any stock gets higher, their cries that "the sky is the limit" and "this time is different" start to get deafening.
Things are going pretty well right now but airlines are a low margin business with potentially a lot of competition.
AIR is sitting pretty right now but all it took a few years ago was a couple of planes flying into a building and profit was banished from the whole industry for a couple of years.
Right now, it could be something as simple as the Auckland property market cooling off and interest rates rising slightly for the property cash machine to stop working. This might cause a few newly rich Auckland property millionaires to stop flying business class everywhere.
Or maybe with this global warming thing, airlines might stop getting a free-ride.
If either of these things were to happen, we might be back at 170 just like last time the AIR forums went crazy with thoughts of the impending rise to cruising altitude of 400 or beyond.
Anything could happen tomorrow yet we're banking on a stream of dividends 3-5 years away!?!
Low margin. Cyclical. Risky. Don't forget it.
Disc: I'm still in but every day get closer to selling.
Trying to be clever or missed maths lessons at school? Have a look at the chart - where is the long term maximum on this graph?
Attachment 8992
Obviously - tomorrow is another day, and nobody can predict whether the AIR longterm maximum is tomorrow, next month or next year at a different point :p;
Never heard about a 100 year weather event coming every couple of years or the hottest year ever - superseded every couple of years?
But I am sure you knew that ... so what exactly was the point of your post?
Nice post, anyone who has made money on AIR had paid a price for it... unless you do not concern yourself with capital preservation.
Me thinks some here could be a touch more kinder to others on the thread.... as some of the largest rampers have also been humble... at least once over the past 18 months with AIR.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11890883
I know it's a cliché but its the caliber of AIR's staff that make the difference.
What's the bet that most of the people on that flight, (if nothing had of been otherwise said) would have otherwise be really scared ?
I was actually on this inbound Wellington flight, returning from Ho Chi Minh to WLG via AKL. As mentioned in the article, the service on this flight was excellent and the Captain did a very good job communicating before, during and after the flight to re-assure customers. He outlined that it was perfectly safe flying conditions for this aircraft and assured also that flying directly into the wind true southerly with no cross-wind actually made quite easy (I have a commercial pilot licence and my own small aircraft, can confirm this)
Once landed, he came out and greeted all the passengers warmly along with the cabin crew. Was a good touch. Funny enough, after 4 years travel to AKL each week..this was actually a relatively tame landing..... Northerly, buffeting cross wind approaches a lot more volatile. The walk to get the car from long term car-parking was more life threatening - pitch black, 50knot winds, hail, windchill factor making temp minus zero.
Air NZ service to / from Vietnam was excellent. Check-in at both ends was efficient. Given gold elite, we managed to get upgraded to Premium Economy both ways and my wife's 'gifted' upgrades went through also. In-flight service, food was great.. Unlimited champagne top-ups made sure we slept soundly!
Anyone else get nostalgia when you board an Air NZ flight from a foreign country to come home? They had 'how bizarre' from OMC playing .. made me smile
Kicking myself a little re Air shares. It was my largest holding and was quite significant. Sold out around $2.80 and made great gains over past 14 months with divies also, yet now looking at current price some weeks later with some wry smiles.. Well done to all those who still hold after the dip. Really is a solid Co. with good management team in place.
Just flew into Shanghai on Air NZ. My partner got an upgrade (she had requested one), but luckily I had a whole row to myself in economy and to top it off it was a SKY Couch. Very pleasant experience, managed to get some sleep. However I am averagely tall and it just is not good enough to be able to lay flat out and so in normal circumstances I probably would not pay for it especially if I was with my partner as it would be too cramped. Staff were exceptional and nothing else to complain about. Bit of a worry to see this flight at about 70% capacity at a guess... but that may be normal? Just an anecdote for your AIR fans :)
Impressive. 9 out of the past 10 months up (so far), a study in volatility and long term technical breakdowns / breakouts for the chartists.
Log Scale Monthly, 6EMA/10EMA (approximates 50/200EMA). $3.74 next technical resistance target.
Attachment 8994
Check stops.
BAA
Flew AKL/HK week before last. Booked late but full both ways, including PE and business. From going up there a few times in the last year, doing well on this route.
Return flight delayed substantially and diverted to Chch, and got home a day late. No fault of staff or plane, just one of those things that sometimes happen with international travel. Staff very very good.
Was waiting for accomodation etc and some of the outbound passengers were delayed out of Chch to get to Hawaii. Felt very sorry for the ground staff as some passengers getting stroppy - especially as weather related.
Interesting article about percentage of foreign ownership at Air New Zealand.
"Outside of the government's 52 per cent stake just 9 per cent of Air New Zealand is now owned by individual and institutional Kiwi investors."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11890005
Globally, as I said still there are opportunities in industries such as Airlines, food, hotels and restaurants. So far airlines stocks such as Easyjet and Air New Zealand have done well in 2017.
Flew to Timaru on Friday night. Flight was 104% capacity with 52 passengers on 50 seats (2 babies on laps!). AKL-WGN flight also full and standing room only in Auckland lounge. Honolulu-Auckland last week was full, could not get an upgrade to Premium Economy as all seats taken by full-fare paying passengers. All bodes well for an excellent financial result!
This article just confirms what I've been saying for quite a while now, that kiwi Insto's don't like Air. It's easy to see why the price has risen so much, basically a diminishing pool of sellers for these overseas players to buy stock from, yet the retail fish seem to have been more than happy to ditch this stock compared with the power companies, which have a more loyal following by their kiwi holders. One good thing about this is, once the price tops out and the overseas players can't buy stuff all anymore, volatility will enter again and the Aircoaster will return, look forward to that. PS-Hope it's a real wild ride.
"A lot of local fund managers don't like Air New Zealand," he said.
But Andrew Thompson, an associate at JBWere who puts together its annual report on foreign investment on the NZX, said from a global perspective Air New Zealand was seen as a well-run and respected airline.
👍👍👍
Interestingly the 4% retail shareholding and 5% N.Z. institutional holding was as at 31 March 2017, a total of ~ just 101m shares (1,123m x 9%)
When AIR presented at the Maquarie investor day in Australia on 4 May 2017 the SP was just $2.60. https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/...rence-2017.pdf
Based on information in that presentation average daily volume is 1.5m shares or in an average month of just over 20 trading days 30m per month or since 1 April 2017 about (3.5 months) approx. 105 million shares would have changed hands.
With broker analysts who as recently as 31 May 2017 had an average 12 month price target of just $2.19 on AIR and even now are only averaging just on ~ $2.80 one can only wonder about the paucity of shares outside of N.Z. Govt control that are now owned by Kiwi's and Kiwi based institutions ? I don't think many Kiwi's understand the brand value of AIR. That core parochial instinct to sometimes want to back one's own team. In a world where many pilots are now being predominantly trained on flight simulators perhaps at a subliminal level, (especially landing at Wellington or Queenstown into a big storm), perhaps Kiwi's trust Air New Zealand pilots who they know have been trained the Kiwi way ?
I think it is simply overseas investors believe in The honourable John Key. Since that announcement the share price took off..... not taking away from the spotlight that this is a great company run extremely well!! I do think politically, that John is a trusted and a well liked politician by overseas investors. I would not invest at these prices into the company, as if something goes wrong in the world airlines stocks generally get dumped in a hurry.
not holding this stock so do your own research.
So the govt. owns 51% and overseas owns 39%....that just leaves 10% for us poor old kiwi peasants:mellow:. ps wonder how many more of those overseaers will want to buy?
9% mate as at 31 March 2017. Wouldn't surprise me if that was down to ~ 7% by now.
LOL mate, not suggesting he's responsible for all the increase just some of it. Fact is he is well known overseas and some foreign institutions probably hold him in high regard and some of them have probably been buying. That and the fact that by and large its trading in line now with American carriers 2017 PE's after previously being cheaper. Like him or not his overseas contacts will be useful to AIR in terms of possible new air services agreements for instance.
The trouble with FA is you're constantly consumed with 'why' the SP moves in its mysterious ways. Sometimes that looks like you're chasing your tail, whereas a simple chart says 'whoopee' … hold until it doesn't make sense losing capital, whenever that is.
Posted 23 January 2017 when SP was just $2.18. Clearly Percy thought it was going lower and you didn't seem to know one way or the other, (acknowledge later posts may have expressed a different view). The problem with a singular focus on TA is you risk overlooking the extreme value that FA can highlight. I prefer it when TA and FA line up concurrently but at my heart I will always believe that FA is a better leading indicator on where a SP is likely to go. (Accept others will have different views and that's fine) No argument TA is a great go too tool as well, but arguably involves an even more constant focus than fundamental analysis. Great times in recent months are always the best when both TA and FA tell one the same rewarding answer :t_up:
Goodness gracious me - Johnny boy gets 'knighted' in Australia
Another $ on the shareprice
Excuse me - while I go and have a chunder. You'll be thrilled too eh Couts
Extract -
Sir John Key will be recognised with Australia's highest honour at a ceremony tomorrow attended by his old friend Malcolm Turnbull, Australia's Prime Minister.
Key will be appointed an honorary Companion in the Order of Australia in Canberra for his "eminent service to Australia-New Zealand relations".
A Companion is the highest ranking grade in the Order and 35 Australians every year can be appointed. Honorary appointments have been made to international figures with a close relationship with Australia.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11891823
You can drag up any older posts but you can't say definitively whether anyone acted on it. Seems a bit defensive to me. TA acts when it's time to act, the 100dma is a poor decider by itself, albeit informative which some use as their token gesture to TA. Point is that TA like FA will be riding the breakout upwards, until it isn't. Except TA don't wonder about why, they just act on what is. When they choose to do so.
Chill out guys. Heading to $4. Numbers are to strong. You guys will find out in 4 weeks times!!!
Not only am I:
baffled by your basic lack of a sense of humour and;
bemused by your inability to understand basic English but I am;
beyond belief of what passes for your idea of basic company valuation.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: $600m? :lol::lol::lol: