Originally Posted by
Beagle
Interesting comparison chart on CNBC this morning. Brought up a bunch of the airline shares and the cruise line companies, (remember cruise lines are not even sailing yet at all). Basically they're moving in incredibly close sync and many have doubled from their lows. (AIR has more than doubled from 80 cents).
Essentially what is going on here is hot money being thrown at "the recovery story". It doesn't seem to matter what the recovery story is, all that matters is that the shares were beaten up and are now recovering. All of the experts on CNBC's fast money show thought it was madness. (Glad I am not the only one, I feel just a little bit more sane now lol)
On Friday Greg Foran admitted they will need all of the Govt's $900m loan, recall its in two tranches, one of $600m and another of $300m. This suggests to me that in FY21 when they will have to endure a very slow recovery and 12 months of the effects of Covid 19 and losses could very well exceed those estimated by brokers for FY20 of around $700m incl extraordinary items (4 months effects of the virus).
If they have to write down the value of their 777-300 fleet losses incl extraordinary items could go over a billion in FY21. Still...what would I know having followed this companies fortunes and despairs for over 35 years...