AIR might need to answer a few questions
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...stock-exchange
Still seems strange Cam goes around essentially pleading insolvency and no ‘official’ comment is made ....taking the mickey out of us I reckon.
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AIR might need to answer a few questions
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...stock-exchange
Still seems strange Cam goes around essentially pleading insolvency and no ‘official’ comment is made ....taking the mickey out of us I reckon.
well prehaps i need to reread everything and missed the rally.. more profitable than before with 5 million less customers? I really dont want to have cash lying around that wont make any money in that time frame which means yet again i will miss the AIR noise bleed rallies. Just like last time and then invest in them for dividend only to be warren buffetted again (air pocket out there somewhere, oil? hmm? carbon taxes)? IS MR B going to buy this... no i dont think he is...I do believe that this is price sensitive just like sky city news that is marked "Not price sensitive" and the stock rallies.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12338136
Fares from only $21 Woohoo, cheap fares with crappy service just like AIR's expensive fares with crappy service !!
Auckland to Queenstown for only $48...what a bargain !!!
Share price closed at $1.79 but did hit a high of $1.825 so I shouldn't be too harsh on myself.
A lot of dribble on this thread since I posted the above but not one person engaged with my central point. Air NZ's share price has not gone up any more than comparable airlines overseas despite being in a materially better position (level 1 yo!). Guess those new investors been buying the shares of American Airlines, Qantas and United Airlines too. :p
Enjoy your temporary unrealised gains while they last. The market in regard to airline stock won't stay in "Alice in Wonderland" for too long. Reality will bite and when it does it will bite very hard.
Beagle you have had your nose in the weeds and missed the big changes.
What effect will the end of social distancing on flights have on Air NZ's load factor and profitability? I would say HUGE.Quote:
" Flying 27% of last year's @FlyAirNZ passenger numbers which requires us to operate 51% of capacity." @CamWallace_NZ
What effect will a COVID free NZ have on business and leisure travel demand? I would say HUGE.
Combined, Air NZ could have a profitable NZ domestic operation at something like 60-70% of its former capacity as early as July. Justifies a share price increase wouldn't you say?
Late 2016 they had record profits of $663m, a business that was 100% intact, a really sound outlook and were paying twice a year dividends of circa 20 cps and the share price was $1.70.
Just think about that for a minute and compare that to the current situation. This year they will post a loss inclusive of extraordinary items of at least $663m. There will be no divideds this year or next and the future has never been more uncertain with Covid 19 rampant in most countries overseas. We are not materially closer to a vacine.
Domestic is such a small part of their business and JetStar are back on 1 July. They are basically doing NO international business.
To be clear here. What we are talking about is a complete chalk and cheese situation. They couldn't be more different. Nobody has any reliable way of predicting when they might be able to commence widespread international operations, it might be a completely different timetable to what AIR are expecting that they will get back to 70% by June 2022.
To further exacerbate shareholders medium term problems, analysts are cautioning that there is the very strong likelihood of the company needing to raise substantial capital in the near future.
I think Jarden's are on the money with their 12 months hence price target of 80 cents.
There are no big changes I have missed. The company itself has said they will need all of the Govt's $900m loan and will start drawing down on this within the next few months.
You don't need a Beagle's nose for trouble to see trouble coming here, its staring at you right in the face. Part of being a hungry dog is not just sniffing out the next big feed, its also sniffing out trouble ahead. Who wants to be kicked in the head ? Not me, but fill ya boots if you believe your own theories and good luck !!
Ah hum
What a booper AIR
A FB message I just received
"Wtf?
Air NZ “can’t afford” to pay out refunds but can afford to buy a good food producing farm (and a rather spectacular one at that) to blanket plant in pine trees to mitigate their carbon footprint.
Please like, share or do what you can to highlight this unbelievable, unacceptable and inconsistent action of Air NZ and their banking syndicate (and shareholders) who fund and support such ill conceived mitigants.
I’m looking for 500 likes and 500 shares. Surely you are as incensed as me and many others!
And if you haven’t done so already please check out www.50shadesofgreen.co.nz - you may feel motivated to make a donation which will help us bring more awareness to the concerns of many NZers. When good food producing land is at the crux of NZ’s survival (health) and revival (economy), it must not be blanket planted in pine. 70,000 ha already since OIO relaxation, Carbon speculation and removal of steeper country from allowable planting areas all collided to cause what’s happening now"
They are both valid points.
To those I would add :
What effect will fuel hedge losses and aircraft lease negotiations have on their profits and financial position?
When will the rights issue happen and at what price?
What impact will competitors having a price war to generate precious cashflow have on an industry with already marginal economics?
How much of the Government loan will be called on, and what impact will this debt have on decisions other lenders make about future borrowing capacity?
What will be the impact on culture and efficiency of 4,000 people or whatever it is leaving the business when it comes to those that are still there?
Has any permanent brand damage been done with the refunds policy?
How many of the early flights will actually generate new cash rather than using up previous credits, given that cash expenses will be created by each flight?
I could go on.
There are positives, you are correct. I can see why people are comparing the next 3 months favourably against the last 3 months. But if you look at the bigger picture, you have a financially weakened company, with shell shocked staff, less customer goodwill, more debt, the potential for cutthroat price competition, consumers probably looking to be more frugal in a recession, all sorts of political intrigue in an election year, and you have all of this in an industry which is economically marginal at the best of times.
As a gambling chip you may get to sell higher to a bigger idiot? Sure. As a long term investment, at the current price, against the likely background going forward? Madness.
It, the share prices exuberance, does look like madness.
I was reflecting on the Jetstar pricing of their return to market, wondering if their parent sees this as an opportunity to loss lead their way into a long term gain in market share?
They certainly have much deeper pockets than air and are not as financially distressed.
You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Stranger_Danger again.
Did anyone see Cam Wallace on Fair Go tonight explaining themselves? He re-stated the $100m cost of repayment to the customers. Going back a few pages there was debate over this number. Just seems way too low (I think they stated over 100k customers having credit)? If it is right, and $100m will break the bank, then Air NZ really are well and truly in the crap.