I am extremely interested to know if OCA management have breakdowns of typical staff tasks and the productive time spent on these tasks. And I would be even more interested to see it. Is this info something a lowly shareholder can be privy to?
Printable View
I am extremely interested to know if OCA management have breakdowns of typical staff tasks and the productive time spent on these tasks. And I would be even more interested to see it. Is this info something a lowly shareholder can be privy to?
They're never going to give a small shareholder that info but I ran the analysis on wages costs as a percentage of gross revenue over the years and posted that in November 2021, see above. The trend is very clear and concerning which is why I remain with a modest position. I have learned the only way to make really good money with OCA is to buy them dirt cheap when fear is really rampant.
Forbar reduced target to $1.60 but still OUTPERFORM (thanks watchdog) …that’s good
But reading between the lines H222 performance likely to be pretty awful….probably all those wages and costs and reduced sales
Just looking at the big picture:
Attachment 13442
OCA did fall during the first Covid dip down to 40 cents (@23/3/20) and subsequently did rise to 160 cents (@5/2/21) - this was a 4 bagger in less than a year. Not bad.
OCA is dropping again (Covid mach 2, aka the Omicron pit).
I do see two questions ...
1) How deep is this pit?
2) Will it quadruple bag again afterwards?
Obviously - nobody can predict the future ... however - re Omicron some other countries are ahead of us (and I don't envy them for this leadership :) ). So - what did their retirement stocks do during Omicron?
Well, lets have a look - here is INA, one of the Australian Retirement villages (and yes, they do have less care and more focus on living ...):
Attachment 13443
Interesting correlation to above, isn't it? And hey, given that our Australian brothers and sisters started the Omicron fun already 4 to 5 weeks ago, how come INA didn't crash through the floor? The correlation with OCA is just too good, isn't it?
So - maybe it is not Omicron spooking retirement stocks, but just inflation and the uncertainty in the financial markets?
Whatever it is - I don't see any indicator that OCA will crash down as far as it did last time - just watch INA.
The other question is obviously - will OCA have again the agility to quadruple its bottom price after the crisis?
Well, who knows, but I don't see any reason why they shouldn't come back stronger out of it.
What really will have changed after the Omicron peak in 5 to 6 weeks from now? Will there be a significant lower number of people needing care? Not very likely. However, the richer will be again a bit richer. Not good for a healthy society, but there for sure will be still more people able to afford a luxury care suite with views ... .
I think I just wait for the next triple or quadruple bagger. Obviously - I don't know, whether the SP might still slip a little bit more from here, but how would $4 in February 2023 sound? ... just asking :) :
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...268/consensus/
Average analyst 12 month price target $1.64. Lowest analyst price target $1.45
Just a thought...Who's going to be paying for the VAST quantities of RAT tests that are going to be needed for staff and visitors ?
Sorry for the head turner above ;) ; Looks like I did too much property acrobatic.
Just to see the direct comparison: Here are OCA (the blue line) and INA (the orange line) in one graph.
Attachment 13444
Given that Omicron is already peaking in Australia ... it does not seem to be Omicron bringing the SP slightly down, isn't it?
LOL - I guess the amazing thing about these 12 month analyst targets is that we always tend to use them if & when they fit into the narrative and ridicule them when they don't.
Problem with them is - nobody is able to predict future stock prices (Ben Graham) - and this includes all the analysts on market screener as well.
Just monitor their recommendations for a meaningful number of stocks and check the outcome after 12 months.
All you get is white noise as correlation ...
House prices set for potentially a meaningful drop https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...19b12a0d7d7338 Maybe this is what's playing on investors minds as well ?
Absolutely ... shows that investors are just humans (i.e. driven by fear and greed rather than by reason ;) ).
Obviously - the real estate price won't impact in any way the demand for care suites ... and hey, does it really impact on your ability to buy into a care suite if your property just stays at 2.2 million dollars (twice the average) instead of rising again by 25 % this year? To be honest - even a 10% drop wouldn't make the world of a difference, wouldn't it?