Hey Beagle, Happy New Year. I just spoke to my broker and maintains this is there #1 pick this year in the sector. They are all stunned regardless of the reasons for sell down at current levels. ARV is #2.
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People are just worried about the unknown. Panicking is the new norm. Every time we say don’t panic buy at supermarkets, people panic buy. I haven’t sold any shares, but anticipate that in the coming weeks OCA will drop below $1 due to shareholders panicking, unless they can prove that their residents are all doing reasonably well and that Omicron is not killing as many as Delta in nz.
Lots of people have paper losses in the last two weeks. Humans are predictable now when fear is their motivator.
I will buy more if it hits below $1 and am comfortable with OCA future and hold lots now
OCA most popular pick in that picking competition …picked 79 out of a couple of hundred
That’s a good endorsement
Happy new year, thanks for that mate.
Fear enough, opps sorry, fair enough :)
Yes, we saw the first time around when Covid hit in early 2020 OCA got hit hardest. I think fear of the unknown is more than a little overdone at $1.15 but there is definitely some real fear out there and as Ggcc mentioned, a lot of people, including myself, have seen significant declines in their portfolio in 2022. "Be greedy when others are fearful" Warren Buffet.
In my opinion it is excellent buying...I don't think that many people know how to value this company. The fundamentals haven't changed in a week. Hey, when Greg Tomlinson starts dumping shares then I will start to be concerned and double check my conviction (same across at Heartland where he also holds a truck and trailer load). His last activity is buying $2.5m at $1.41 in October 2021. As someone said on this thread, I'd rather be 2 minutes early to the dance than 5 minutes late. Keep calm and carry on.
Exactly, as expected the shares traded back at 1.20 today, less than 24 -hours after the capitulation wick.
The great thing about the NZX is its low volume and weak market efficiency, it often provides gifts but most don't have the guts to catch the presents (knives).
Always happy to get my hands cut a bit every now and then when the value is so irresistible because it's only a matter of time before it's gone.
Hard to say if the fear of what's coming is worse than what's coming ? I think almost everyone is fully cognisant that Omricon case numbers are highly likely to explode in an exponential manner as they have in Australia and we will see huge numbers of cases in the near future.
To me at $1.15 it is a 50/50 call as to whether that's the bottom or not if it weren't for the rout that's going on in overseas markets. When you overlay the two main risks including the macro situation overseas I think its very early days to suggest a bottom is in.
What I have learned from observing OCA relative to the rest of the retirement sector since Covid came upon us is that's it seems this one's much higher care services relative to independent living ratio seems to be reflected in higher volatility than other stocks in this sector. Whether this is logical or otherwise is debatable but the pattern is definitely there. For this and other reasons I remain cautious.
Overall in more than 4.5 years since it listed, to be frank OCA has disappointed me a bit. It promised so much and has so far delivered very modest returns for shareholders. All my concerns about the systemic issue of high annual wage cost inflation of 7-8% per annum in the cost to run this business remain...so I won't be getting too big in this regardless of the future price. Disc: pretty modest 4.1% portfolio allocation. Might take that up a bit, possibly to a high of 8% but I'd need to see a real bargain price to give me the encouragement to do so.
Its not a super high conviction stock for me because to date, over many years now, the staff are sucking up almost all of the gains and I don't expect that trend to change anytime really soon.
The risks, extra costs and challenges to run the business in an Omricon environment are readily apparent. I'm happy to pause and reflect and sit on my paws for a while and see what happens.