That's the dog's of the dow theory for the NZX done like a dog's dinner right there !
I might put a paw up for a few Meridian in the very low $4's if they ever get there but the rest of them can stay in the dogbox where they belong.
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Happy new years fellow posters!
Let's crack off the new year with a classic long and windy speel.
All this chit chat about stock picking lists and annual competitions is not where I'm at , that all sounds like horse racing to me.
I posted recently about OCA`s build rate and its dominant downstream impact on the bottom line (post 11288) and then the ongoing annuity (DMF) income thereafter.
This is a follow on to that post so that's worth re-reading to help understand this post better.
My concern with OCA is the historical build rate of about 215 p/a. It just isn't enough now that the company has new shares and is now a 2.3B company. Over the new year break I've put some focus into the possibility of Brent's new verbal build target ramping up to 300-350. I had initially dismissed this ambitious statement from my workings in the meantime and said I'll believe it when I see it.
After more mulling, I've now concluded there are now enough clues that he is actually doing as he claims. My reasoning is as follows:
-Last HY saw a very large increase in capex from $40m to $70m.
-Commencing construction of 209 units in the last 6 months 1HY22.
-Raising an extra spare 20m in the capital raise suggests to me expansionary thinking.
-Hiring 2 extra heavy hitting directors. Rob's area is capital markets and Peter`s in property developments.
- And just having a ****-ton of pre-consented construction on hand all set to roll out at will.
So they have the land, the consents, the staff, the funding , the new target… and it seems from the increased capex spend that they have already pulled the trigger.
After sitting in the cynical camp for a while I've decided there are enough clues now to safely join some dots that the rate increase is real.
It will take 5 years from now for the recent projects started to be mature villages so of course this ramping up now won't produce profit immediately. The good news is that it's only 1.5 - 2 years when this capex spend increase produces rewards. firstly with the sugar rush of new build margins (20-35 % of the spend depending on the region) which then reduce and settle into ongoing village annuity (DMFs- 10% for each of the first 3 years). So you can see any capex dollar spent now produces handsome returns over 1.5 - 6 yrs. of about 50-65%.
It also increases the NTA which the share price seems tied to for now.
To quantify how significant the 2 build rate differences of the historical average of 215 is to the new 325 target, I've run the scenarios through the good ol` spreadsheets.
A build rate of 215 over next 7 years = cagr 12%.
A build rate of 325 over next 7 years = cagr 17%.
On top of this are annual dividends to enhance returns further ( say 3% net) .
But wait , there's more!!! If a company can regularly offer somewhere between 12-17% cagr then there is going to be some nice PE expansion for the share price from its current PE18.
So there's plenty to be happy about if one truly has a long term strategy. Certainly not a share that will give many thrills to people who love the market excitement of the NZX but it's rare quality combo of a very solid future returns with the underwritten safety of buying at NTA.(which is constantly growing in itself).
Ps. The 12% growth has already been in play since passing the care profit inflection point but was swallowed up in the recent HY1 by covid costs , paying the wage subsidy back , covid lockdowns and dilution effect of the new capital raise shares. All these are one offs (well maybe not the covid cost just yet) so OCA just might sneak out of the dog box 2022. If not this year then CERTAINLY calendar year 2023 when Waimarie starts selling.
As per... brilliant post Mav. Very insightful, thanks a million for sharing
Ultimately the build rate must reach saturation by all resthome providers. Long term profitability must be measured by their operations and not growth.
Happy new year to all.
Good post Mav but I remain cautious of any quick bound up in the build rate....supply chain issues and constrains around physical capability of the construction firms they use in terms of numbers of personnel.
From vague memory, I think they may have tweaked the business model for care suites to 15%, 10%, and 5% DMF.
Valuers use a 14+% discount rate to value the cash flow from units so over the long term one would hope OCA attain at least this return.
Interestingly on the call the team alluded too the true fair NAV (net asset value if unsold units were priced at market value and developments in progress at cost) as being $1.42 as at 30/9/2021.
The real estate market has risen in the last quarter of 2021 and of course you've got 3 months more of that 14% discount rate the valuers use (3.5% per quarter) so I think fair adjusted NAV is currently in the vicinity of $1.42 + 3.5% = ~ $1.47 With the shares closing last year at $1.34 that's close to a 10% discount to estimated current fair value NAV. That seems like a reasonable place to put fresh capital to work so I am biased towards upsizing my current fairly modest free carry holding.
True ... however - what is long term?
For the next 2 to 3 decades or so demand will continue to increase, and with it needs to go the supply.
I agree that around the mid of this century we likely will have a global population peak, and all will go down from there (is this another inflexion point?). This is when retirement villages will need to venture into other business ... or start shrinking.
Not sure, though whether this will be a big problem for my investment horizon :):
Of course Bottom feeder, over building would be a disaster for everyone. But ALL these operators look ahead many years before committing to these massive projects. Its not the same volatile market as domestic, where mum and dad get all enthused and slap a house on their front lawn.
NZ needs 1700 EXTRA units each year to meet the grey tsunami.
OCA`s 2 points of difference over their peers in what is already a competitive market;
Firstly, their land is in more exclusive areas already where the rich listers already live. As apposed to buying a paddock on the outskirts somewhere.
Secondly, the number one factor for residents in selecting a village is its late care offerings and that, I think we can all agree, is where OCA shines.
All operators are reporting very strong demand and all of them have low empty stock . At this point the very opposite of over supply is happening.
Considered and careful expansion is what the game is all about for now. 2040 it all goes tits up, maybe they just sell `em off as apartments. Certainly not something to include in our 2022 list of worries.
Yep have to agree with you all, probably not something to worry about on our investment horizon. But I would hope that the company is maximizing profits from all aspects of their businesses. I am sure any responsible provider would be doing this. I would hate for resales to be subsidising care for example.
MOH today
Today we can confirm there are now six cases of COVID-19 from the Everil Orr Care Centre in Mount Albert, including five residents and one staff member.
One of the residents, who tested positive on 30th December, is in hospital and is currently in a stable condition. All other residents, and the staff, were tested on 31st December and early on New Year’s Day. All residents and staff are fully vaccinated. The facility is run by Oceania and is being supported by Public Health and Auckland DHB.
And a real possibility of Properties having a 10 -20% correction this year.
I agree with John Key that the current level of house prices is unsustainable but seeing as OCA unit prices have risen nowhere near the speed of general real estate in recent years and most people are making a needs based decision or a lifestyle decision to dramatically downsize I don't think a moderate correction would have much impact, if any, on OCA.
You could easily make the case a lot of fear of the unknown with Omicron is already baked into the current price too.
I'm not expecting any miracles this year...maybe we head back towards $1.50 but hopefully momentum starts to build nicely in 2023, 2024 and beyond. Within 5 years it should double or maybe a bit more = ~ 15% annual compounding rate of return + dividends. Nothing too shabby about that.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/40675
6 cases in Everil Orr when whole of Auckland region reported 71 is a bit of worry
Hope it hasnt been undetected there for a week or so ….after all it seems it was only detected when a resident ended up in hospital and apparently only tested then
Maybe the staff member that got it was asymptomatic. Hope everyone is going to be okay.
Even if house prices drop 10%-20%. It won't correlate to oca so much as they have not increased there unit prices anywhere near as much as they could have. In fact I think a little slow on their part. Covid will keep retirement stocks flat this year till this hopefully passes and we are back to normality if that will exist again
Let’s hope it works out ok for these folk. Oceania has been all over the news so will be interesting when the market opens on Wednesday.
No, I wouldn't wager on it. I got burned last year on A2 and am not keen for another dance with them until they have figured out what they are doing. Hold MEL and bought some PPH after it was dumped at the end of last year. Have held RYM for a long time but sold down over the last couple of years and switched into OCA. All in all, I'm not that keen on gambling on the dogs but I like to keep a few outside chances in the stable along with the thoroughbreds.
In between the races / cricket updated my OCA underlying earnings forecasts for F22 and F23
F22 forecast $70m - 255 new sales and 286 resales to give $85m realised gains less $15m loss on running villages and looking after people.
F23 forecast $96m - 270 new sales and 348 resales to give $109m realised gains less $13m loss on running villages and looking after people.
Tried and true methodology .... sales numbers Forbar guesses and realised gains my assessment. Can't see the losses on running villages ad looking after people going away any day soon
F21 12 month was $50m so these forecasts pretty good eh
Share price 180/200 by year end
Looking at the chart suggests its going to be a bit of a grind for a while longer. Tracking along sideways holding underneath the 200 day moving average. You'd easily be forgiven for thinking its in something of a holding pattern until we know what's going to happen with Omicron and that's probably where its at in the short term in my opinion. My sense is this is best viewed as a long term value play, buying about 10% below its intrinsic fair NAV...just decide how many you want and throw it in the bottom drawer.
I wouldn't be surprised to see private equity having a sniff around early this year, the stocks trading at a very compelling price for a long term holding and could probably be brought for less than $2 per share.
A relatively low NZD makes it even more compelling.
And Mau seems such a long time before we get FY unless they surprise us with an update. And they still have that $100m to spend that they raised from bond offer...
this thing is on the line... O Neil always maintained the longer the flat line the higher the jump....in this case it looks like a parachute might be at the ready ...
At least OCA didn’t end the day sub 130
wait for this to hit which is why even SKC is selling off...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127...r-the-big-sick
think its sell time..
thats the sound of a klaxon on a war ship going past i hear ..
who ever sells at 1.0 can we buy? it got to be a bargain surely..
Price discovery?
But what if Baker is right... spring? just in case this spring thaw actually takes place what state would this market be in then?
Now some say its just lime lighting and so far none of his predictions have come to pass.
Well this will be interesting but not for anyone in a retirement village...they will have to pressure suite the staff!!! oh dear..
Looks like you need the OMI vaccine if transmission is to be dampened..
Pfizer says Omicron vaccine will be ready in March - NZ Herald
Well, that's true up to a point, but there is an argument, and a very strong one IMO, that we should allow Omicron to circulate freely in order to provide us with immunity against the next iteration of covid which could be far more deadly.
Hopefully when the government finally gets back from their summer holidays, we can get a steer on what the plan is from here.
IMO, we are due an explanation as to why they delayed the start of the 4 month boosters until 5th January rather than getting on with it immediately the decision was made. Also, why bookings can't be taken until 17 January (surely not because programmers on summer holidays). I doubt the PR machine will provide answers though.
At the end of the day (and probably much much sooner) Omicron will be raging through anyway as the MIQ systems won't be competent to keep it out, and there's no way NZ will accept going back to hard lockdown
Look at the data coming out on how little protection Pfizer provides on symptomatic infection (note it still provides good protection at minimising severity) after 5+ months post 2nd dose vs. having booster dose. This shows why it is absolutely critical we get booster doses as high as possible within the next 4 weeks, or NZ hospitals will quite simply be severely overwhelmed (unless we went back to a level 4 type lockdown). We have a small window to minimise the impact of what Omicron is going to do to us and at this stage we would be stupid not to take advantage of it.
We still need to be aiming to opening borders end of Feb imo.
Why don't you guys take this rubbish to the coronavirus thread.
Every time someone mentions the covid and a new strain it infects that particular thread for a while and no one knows the truth yet, except Cindy & biscuit of course .
Probably be like this in NZ next month.Thousands of residents being locked in their rooms etc etc
Thousands of residents infected as aged care sector hits ‘crisis’
https://www.smh.com.au/national/thou...11-p59nix.html
Get away with you ,blasphemy
In my early training years, I spent quite a bit of time working in nursing homes as part of different rotations. There is a HUGE correlation between how "busy" and active you can keep people and their future prospects regarding overall health and decline. One of the world's most important neuroscientists named Oliver Sacks (from the movie "Awakenings") discovered how powerful music was, and how it had the power to reach people with even severe cases of dementia. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdYplKQ4JBc. Right here in New Zealand, a wonderful story about the "Hip-Hoperation" crew https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90sXcZwOSuw highlighted how one woman named Billy Jordan went into nursing homes and turned them into award winning hip-hop dancers!!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saRWpSqQpPA
My point being, regardless of the dangers of Covid, the dangers of isolation are also devastating for older people. Some studies are being done right now about how Covid and its secondary affects have affected people in nursing homes. This is highly relevant to OCA and all businesses that work with older people. Servicing this population goes well beyond providing comfortable homes. It's about providing healthy and holistic options biologically, psychologically, and socially.
This is a good post and great points you make cymonger. The residents are in many cases very vulnerable and need social contact and physical exercise. A couple of weeks ago a friend of mine who is a Doctor in an emergency department at a hospital at the forefront of Omicron in a Nordic country where it is very rampant, posted in response to a couple of retirement homes being put into isolation/quarantine, that he hoped the residents and their families has been asked if that is what they wanted and that their wishes had been listened to. He went on to say that the very real and negative effects on the residents, both mentally and physically, from being locked down in their rooms on their own, had to be weighed against the potential threat of the "Omicron cold" (his words).
staffing a problem in retirement villages already once omicron is let in it will cause these staffing issues to blow out big time. who's going to care for the residents ? wages will blow out as these companies have to pay over the top to get staff will also be a on going issue.
You’re only looking at it from 1 angle. All small businesses will struggle more than the OCA models if omicron gets hold. In small businesses one staff member gone could mean they need to close up for how many days it takes to get them back. Your hospitality venues and many other businesses are already running on skeleton crew. I think we will all need to adapt and learn to pay more for the simple things we take for granted now.
I see the current weakness in share price as a wonderful opportunity to increase my holding. 😋
Yep, ones capitulation is another ones entry. Patience will be rewarded but I can't blame some for fearing the worst about the upcoming Omicron wave, uncertain times for the sector absolutely but one needs to look forward a few years. Markets are usually pretty good at doing this eg Auckland Airport not fearing too badly during the pandemic.
this dead boring stock must be a proxy for the great property game in NZ...otherwise its just plain boring...worse far worse than ARG...
the future is out there in the big world...this is bowls and morning tea ...
Elgars in the south playing in the back ground if your lucky else some terrible country and western music...
"Enigmas"
well they could play the variations of course ... but really nothing like a bit of Pomp and Circumstance ....
was thinking 1.10 but whos to say it wont stay there for ever...
KIP... just KIPPING alone...
One covid death so far this year on 11 January, maybe that was one of their residents. Been very quiet otherwise
What a stupid thing to say Habits. Go take your stupid assumptions elsewhere. Wait for the fact before you comment.
Fundamentals look fine to me, the chart looks like a poorly bred mutt. Sentiment is poor...glad I only have a modest allocation, all free carry. Might up the ante at $1.20 if it gets down there otherwise I'm not fussed about bothering to do anything. I think the threat of Omricon is weighing on the sector and OCA is most exposed with their business model having the highest level of care of the sector so the weakness is understandable.
Well I have had a good look at this over last few days. After selling down a good portion last year I’ve come to the conclusion that OCA is over sold currently. The fundamentals stacks up and the risks are priced in. They have some great assets coming to market next few years. The St Helliers development is going to be sold at a premium for a premium location.
When you consider it’s a care model more closely aligned with Arv I still can’t see the justification for the current price selling below Nav, when Arv is selling at a healthy premium.
On that basis I purchased a decent number adding to my position with the last lot purchased this morning at $1.26.
Just can’t see how you can go wrong at this level. Large insider purchases at a much higher price also gives me comfort.
Fair value adjusted NAV at the last call was $1.42 (counts developments in progress at cost and all unsold units at fair market value) but that was more than 3 months ago and the market was firm in the last quarter of 2021. Probably getting close to $1.50 now with further work in progress on developments, further sales and accrued earnings since then.
I agree 100% that in the medium to long term its hard to see how you can go too far wrong from here. In the short term however when, (not if), Omrcon rips through New Zealand its quite possible (probable ?), sentiment could be so negative that we could see a (materially ?), more advantageous point at which to add to one's stake. Keeping some powder dry for that appears prudent to me.
maybe a dumb question but, given I am already down 14% on this share, and we all generally accept it may go down more before it gets better …. Wouldn’t it be a good idea to sell now, keep the cash ready, and then buy back in once omi has done its damage and thus have more shares than now as the business and share prices looks to recover?
Nobody knows the future. Nobody can time the market. Just hodl
Good to have a diversified portfolio in times like these when on of your stocks comes under pressure.
My OCA holding is dragging. Like it did in 2021. But I still believe in the long term performance of this stock. Better than cash.
Where can you buy property in the main centers for less than its worth? Thats how i look at the NTA discount situation
Depends on whether you are a gambler or not
The share price might not fall any further and then you might have to buy higher than you sold yours for. On the other hand sell now and if they go down another 10%/20% you will make a killing
Often wise investors say if the reason for you originally buying hasn't changed than stay on board - even beagle says nothing has really changed long term
Maybe if you really think OCA is good why not save up a few bucks and buy some more if there is a crash
I've got enough at the moment and not selling those but will buy more if down near a buck .... see i'm no trader and I'm assuming neither are you
I'm not a financial advisor so it's got to be your call
True.
But playing devils advocate - it's also analogous to buying (say) a minority shareholding in a dairy that owns the building. The building might be worth a million, but the dairy loses $50k a year. given the two business units are owned by the entity you have to buy a share in, then of course the group equity value will be less than the NTA, given you have to buy the loss making part too. Doesn't mean OCA can't grow NTA, or stablise care earnings in time, but there are good reasons why it trades at a significant discount to SUM on a P/NTA basis.
Rawz sums it up perfectly. Talk of $1.00 sounds like a pipe dream to me, but who no’s. Delta has not been as bad as many on here thought for the sector and what I read says that omicron is less of an issue.
As long as you are diversified and are in for the long term you should do well. There are plenty of people that wait for the perfect price to enter and before you no it the price has escalated.
For me the research I have done it looks like a very good buy. The government will have to come to the party with care costs, otherwise the state will be left with a market like what exists with residential rentals. Operators will reduce care and the state will have to step in.
I have not backed the truck up but now have a healthy position that I will keep adding too if it continues to fall.
Hahahaha clearly you have not read what you wrote mr Geek its probably the stupidest argument one could make when it comes to share investments. Did you sleep badly or not at all and you got up grumpy. Or is that another assumption to trigger the Geek WD. From now on facts only and no assumptions before commenting
Panic over - I see share price back to 130
Now 120 is only a distant dream
I think we're on for another challenging year in the market with headwinds of high inflation, rising 10 year bond rates, Omricon and probable subsequent variants, a rising official cash rate and central banks around the world reducing stimulus and increasing interest rates.
Ongoing issues with general staff shortages, difficulties getting and retaining skilled nurses and caregivers and a flat or declining real estate market present are specific challenges to this sector with OCA most vulnerable with staff because of its high level care model. I think most or probably all of this is already in the share price at $1.30 but you cannot discount the possibility that this could ostensibly track sideways for quite a while while we wait for headwinds to abate.
Long term hold and years of patience will likely bring its rewards. In the meantime the dividend yield is probably about the same as you'd get on residential property but this is at about a 13% discount to my estimate of current NAV and work involved with this one is a LOT less than residential property.
That's my read on things. HOLD.
Nope…not a dumb question. Generally I am a long term holder and will just add to many stocks on price drops. Retirement villages were ~10 % of our portfolio, I reduced to 5% a year or so ago because of risk that I see in the sector. Mainly, COVID, Regulatory and stagnant or decreasing real estate prices. On top of that we are retired and the dividends are modest.
I am considering exiting the sector completely based on the Omicron risk. I guess it’s going to get out into our community and I imagine that it may hit the retirement villages hard. Not quite sure what I will do at this stage.
I would rebuy at around $1.00.
For what it’s worth.
Now that it's been below 1.30, that it is back to 1.30 it looks like up to me. But it isn't. $1.30 =is a very low SP for OCA, considering the stage the company is at. Will Omicron be bad, probably. Will it affect staffing capabilities at OCA resthome, no doubt. The real question is how long. South Africa has judged the outbreak as shortlived for some reason, as well as other countries. In several countries cases are on the wane. Hopefully that will happen here. Then we can get down to normal business and a 1.70 SP.
"I would rebuy at around $1.00."
that assumes that running costs are going hit the P&L big time and the MR B reminder that they havnt been able to get the margin up on their unit sales?
Feeling like this is a KIP story in the making but surely not.
Attachment 13411
I am overweight in OCA and I think I am comfortable with it. But I need the SP to get back to $1.70.
I need it to go to $2.50 in order to facilitate my desired life style. 😎
Good post.Ive been out for a while for the those reasons .Getting and retaining staff (care givers)getting desperate for some ,I'm hearing.A big song and dance was made about a wage rise recently for staff on the front line,8c an hour!!? And the staff are being ,pressured to work harder and harder by management and nurses,with no time off given for very valid family and other reasons.They feel used and bullied and not respected,why should they stay.
Joshuatree, the NZX notices tells us that directors and other insiders are adding OCA shares to their portfolios.
They do that by dividend reinvestment.
On top of that Chair Elizabeth Coutts, directors Sally Evans, Peter Dufaur and Gregory Tomlinson have been buying on market recently.
One would think the insiders buying together with EBITDA increasing 19.6% in the last financial halve year is a positive and holding is likely more profitable than sitting on the sideline.
Ryman,around $23.This person I spoke to had given their all for 7 years and had had enough of being over worked and undervalued.Im guessing it's the same with OCA etc but maybe they look after their staff better ,but I doubt it.
Fill your boots forest��.Its just my opinion.
Good post Forest. From memory late last year Gregory Tomlinson, (who is nobody's fool and a very astute and wealthy businessman) bought a couple of million at about $1.40. Caregiver and nurses wages have increased a LOT in the last few years and this is something I have commented about extensively already. Vastly more than the inflation rate. I believe experienced registered nurses now command very close to $40 per hour.
That said, from a TA point of view none of the charts of stocks in this sector look any good so at this point I am happy to run with a pretty modest ~ 7.5% allocation to this sector, most of which is OCA and the rest ARV and am reluctant to add other than at genuine rock bottom bargain prices.
Cheers for clarification. However wondering why you didn't post this in the Ryman thread given it seems to be a Ryman story?
BTW - not sure either, your story is true for Ryman either. Just checking Dr. Google:
Quite a bit away from the numbers you are talking about, isn't it? Are you really saying that the biggest retirement village operator in NZ is paying just 60% of the average wage? Not very likely given the current unemployment rate, unless they employ just idiots (which I don't believe).Quote:
The average caregiver salary in New Zealand is $78,275 per year or $40.14 per hour. Entry-level positions start at $47,288 per year, while most experienced workers make up to $82,777 per year.
You might want to check and verify your information ....
Talking of wages and costs in general
Six months to Sept21 Operating Cash Flow was $52.4m. Of this $73.7m (net after repaying outgoing people) came from selling units / ORA
This suggests that it cost them $21.3m to run villages and look after people -- ie expenses much higher than revenue collected --- in other words a $21.3m loss
Hope they keep selling plenty of units to keep subsiding the costs
Too simplistic view?
I think we discussed this ad infinitum before on this thread, didn't we?
OCA bought a lot of old, often run down old people homes in prime locations and turned them over time into new high quality homes.
Transition requires to run with increased stuffing levels ... a new village needs to be fully staffed, even when occupation still growing ... and the old homes need still staffing, even when occupation is dropping.
Things will improve given they passed infliction point (well, this is what they said, didn't they?).
It is however correct that nobody expects them to get rich just with collecting fees for the care ... any retirement village is a REIT ... but I am sure you knew that, didn't you?
The big money will always be in building new apartments / units and in recycling the real estate they already built.
@winner
I wonder if that is a bit simplistic.
Per the Interim Report:
- p18 has cash inflows and outflows for receipts for care fees and payments to supplier and employees which shows a gap of $1.5m. Keep in mind some of the employees will be selling units etc where the cash inflow from the sale of units is disclosed separately and they are not part of the care operations.
- p28 has the profitability by business unit which has EBITDA $9.6m for "care operations" and NPBT of $2.2m
- p15 has total employee costs at $68m out of total operating costs (ignoring depreciation and interest) of {$68.3 + $3.3 + $28.5m) = $100.1m. Some of that will be Sales & Management etc. per the analysis on page 28. (Note the total opex there is within $0.1m of my calc above).
- On the assumption employee vs non employee costs are consistent across the 3 business units, this put the employee costs in the "care operations" at about {68% x $76.3m =} ~$52m.
I think your $1.5m is prior year .... Sept21 the difference is $16m
They've also told me in the past that sales/construction people costs are usually capitalised.
All very complicated isn't it ....that's why I tend to follow the money ..... through the cash flow statement
Fair point.Im generalising that it's across all the care companies.
Yep it's re $23 hour at level 3 caregiving.Newcomers start on less. $27 an hour about the top rate,,level 4.
Its the nurses by the looks you are referring to re those other figs.Im talking about caregiving in the hospital section,dementia etc.