Its 328 now...do we still have doubt Air SP will go up? Why the insto buy Air to push the SP up if it wasn't a good company?
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I'm very pleased with how they're executing their business plan mate. Their determination to now grow in a disciplined manner in line with demand growth is something of a departure from their approach in FY16 and is something that I feel far more comfortable with.
2% is a joke...I rather keep in the bank.
If we get three special fully imputed divvies in the 2020-2022 years of 25 cps each and between now and 2022 for the next five years average 20 cps per annum in ordinary dividends that's a total of $1.75 coming back to shareholders all fully imputed or $2.43 gross. $2.43 / $3.25 = 74.8% return over five years equals an average annual gross dividend yield of ~ 15%. Conclusion, provided in those capex lean years AIR pay out 25 cps of the approx. 90 cps free cash flow as fully imputed special dividends then the dividend yield case notwithstanding very strong share price gains, is still very compelling.
humming along nicely - forget the A330, A350, looking good for A380:scared:
sold last week for A321 to fly on something else, but happy for holders
It only up ten cents that does not determine it entire future.
Inst. investors also sold on the way down based simply on uncertainty and market sentiment on the last drop. The yield buying now only makes sense as beagle argues if you include several years of specials when capex is forecast to drop off...more forward out assumptions and what ifs to get to a 15% return overall.
I'm happy having taken money off the table..sold 700,000 share on the way up and still hold a parcel. As I'm not an institutional investor with higher level contacts in NZ markets there was no way I could offload them quickly if this share drops again... which can happen just as easily as before for a number of reasons I mentioned previously. It may just as easily be triggered by the next executive sell off...
Can never ride to the top of the trend if you are a larger private investor..you never get out the door early enough if sentiment changes. Define you exit points and keep to it..no need to be greedy.
You did well Raz, no NZ Instos would have taken those shares off your hands even with higher connections, it's overseas players driving the price up and even they would be running for cover on any sharp price drop.
That's unfortunate you have to exit early.
The monthly passenger numbers are pretty impressive, the Oil is keep deeping and by the look not going to hit US$60/bbl any time soon as U.S. crude output will continue rising through next year.
still holding my fortune in AIR nothing to panic at this moment.
Analysts downgraded AIR after FY16 last year based on raising competitions and higher OIL prices.
Since AIR have managed competitions very well and OIL prices managing itself :cool:. Oil still sliping. Oil prices enters bear market. The days of turbulence are over. Future ride look very smooth :sneaky2:.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/20/inve...p-toplead-intl
Roger would you put 100% of your money in to one stock that maybe at an all time high ? I admire Eval but i don't know if he is aware of the risk; never, as he says having lost money on the mkts .
Eval might have sold overnight :D- 17mill gone through at 315
While not advocating 100% of a portfolio in one stock for a personal investor .
Bill Gates and Steve Jobs went ok being pretty much "all in" on one stock .
Re all time highs , AAPL was $ 10,20'40,, 80,100,200,400 700 then 7/1 split and now$ 145 or equivalent of over $ 1000. So buying the highs not a bad strategy ?
Maybe have a read iof William O Neil and CANSLIM.
It will all end in tears.
and
So Roger has become Beagle - that is going to cause some confusion:
Now we have
Snoopy - the Beagle
Beagle - the ?
Best Wishes
Paper T
From some research I was doing about other things this pertinent to AIRs prospects
Current growth in NZ residents holidaying overseas has started to exceed growth in foreign visitor arrivals.
Doesn't really matter as AIR wins both ways eh - and maybe a good thing for AIR as NZers more likely to fly AIRplanes (?)
And all those Lions fan boosting June / July stats and Ed will boost internal travel next May
Macquarie lowers oil price targets
From the media -
Macquarie has lowered its Brent crude oil price targets by between 7 and 13 per cent amid an “era of easy oil supply to 2020”,
The broker has Brent averaging $US54.15 in 2H17, $US49.33 for 2018, $US52.75 for 2019 and $US65 for the long term.
“Our analyses indicates there will be too much oil being produced, loaded, and marketed around the world until 2020,” Macquarie analysts say.
And it ended capitulations by analysts can often mark price bottoms.
http://grammarist.com/usage/aeroplane-airplane/Quote:
Aeroplane and airplane are different forms of the same word. Airplane is preferred in American and Canadian English, while aeroplane is traditionally preferred in non-North American varieties of English. But airplane has been steadily gaining ground in British publications, and it may someday become standard. Meanwhile, aeroplane is almost completely absent from American and Canadian publications, and to North Americans it may have an old-fashioned ring.
So NZers don't like AIRplanes -- they prefer AEROplanes. :)
Snoopy The Beagle
Beagle The Hound
Hound The Harley
= The Beagle Brothers:confused:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6D&FORM=VRDGAR
AIRtime... for the newborn beagle :)
That was a pretty bad day for the AIR share price
Let's just put it down to some profit taking on what wasn't a good day on the bourse
Resumption of normal action soon
As guru market commentators say after a bout of 'profit taking' the 'bargain hunters' come out to play
Been like that for ages
How is AIR coping with the ex-PM John Key now part of the board?
Can they cope with a carping show pony that may make media headlines as he's still a public figure? Hummm
Today formed an inverted hammer on the weekly chart, a reversal signal, the turn away from previous high was quite pronounced. Watching closely for weeks end. Check stops.
BAA
I don't see him on the board ....
https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/air-...oard#selection
Maybe come back in spring black rose , then the company will be in full bloom with the assistance of the ex PM.
Yes it is. Tourism is such a fragile thing...
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/9284...to-new-zealand
mate, everything is fragile when it come to business... take a example of Oil, predicted to hit USD$60/bbl most of the 2017 and look at now where it is heading towards. Oil spirals to 10-month low.trading below US$43/bbl.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cru...1?dist=markets
According to bank of Russia if three major countries doesn't stop the output growth then Oil will be hitting to US$25/bbl by mid-2018 but it doesn't mean its going to. Incase if that happen then what would be for AIR (another record profit in 18) but that's all prediction.
Can't predict the future.it can go either way :cool:
price of Brent under $45 dollars , air nz collar If I remember was $55 so they are looking pretty good.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-raise-supply
When it came to oil you could predict the outcome this time if you had contacts in the US shale oil industry... many surprised on how quickly they would come back into world supply. Actually the US government has a funding support line for that to occur. Part of foreign policy to keep the Russians and others in check?
If you study tourism you will see it naturally is entirely different risk at this time...
Obviously - this is an issue impacting on all airlines ... but I didn't realise that planes have difficulties to fly when it is too hot. It sounds like we managed already to reach the limit - lots of flights in Phoenix cancelled recently due to high temperatures:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/b...te-change.html
For sure a long term issue, but maybe airlines better prepare ...
Whatever the argument, the stock is fully priced and apart from it's divvy paying ability there's little growth left with a ton of potential downside. Contrast that with the likes of A2 where the sky literally is the limit of growth potential, plus a future divvy.
If only there was some sort of scientific explanation for why the temperatures in general are so hot year in year out, that could be possibly put in to a report and given to the US Trump administration... Apparently the French might have a solution.
Anyway, yes a guy I know in the Californian basin is currently wrestling with that one. They also have problems with wild fires too and any one that's worked in Western Australia knows anytime the temp goes above 43c it's next to useless to do anything but wait in air conditioned areas with a cold one.
Anyway - indeed stop loss, why the AIR board are "hiding" the mouthy ex-PM from banging on, I'm mildly curious as why AIR hired him in the first place given that most board members only want to sign off on expansions, and steady as she goes budget plans as to not anger the shareholders holding AIR shares in Panmure.
The minute he starts up with the smile and wave obfuscation bull**** that worked so well in National politics if it comes to announcing a large losses or a downgrades, or the usual rounds over Aviation Engineer cuts, I want to see him being thrown to the dogs just like Ramsey Bolton being feed to the Direwolves and Cane Corso's of Castle Black.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3...ord-in-mayhtml
Inbound and outbound travel very strong. Immigration at new record high.
Another good day for Qantas over on the ASX along with Macquarie Private Wealth increasing their price target from $5.90 (5 May 2017) to $6.50 a few days ago. I suspect AIR will continue to follow her footsteps.
Thanks allfro... a positive finish to this day as the next starts:t_up:
Air nz never actually traded at prices like $15.90 post bailout there was a major share consolidation. 5:1? This caused Google finance to multiply all pre-consolidation prices by five. It's not however like for like as a lot of new shares were issued at a low price in the bailout. If air nz were to trade at $5 It would have a much higher market capitalisation than the earlier price point now called $5.
Closed at a multi year high of $3.285. Warmest congratulations to shareholders who have had the courage to hold all the way from around $1.80 in late 2016 against an absolute barrage of sustained negativity on here at times. Disc: Has been my #1 investment position for quite some time and am sitting patiently waiting for the next very tasty meal service to come along in September (really enjoying the ride) :t_up:
Isn't it really weird how you never hear the TA people saying it looks really good on the charts now whereas on the way down TA people were more than happy to share their negative opinion really frequently...I must ask my psychologist friend to try and explain that strange phenomenon to me ?
From time to time people have pointed out the powerful uptrend, strong indicators etc Roger and a few have expertly entered at recent deep lows and ridden the now parabolic rise. But as the SP approached multi-year highs, being resistance, a TA would rightly call that out as a warning. A confirmed breakout (that's a run up from here, a pullback and back tested the breakout line, then off upwards again) would be what TA's are looking for. Otherwise buying now is just buying at a historical turning point range.
You must be very pleased...I could never sleep at night with such a "diversified" strategy but each to their own ! (I haven't sold any despite all the "expert" analysts opinions and other opinions on here saying they're WAY overpriced. Have you taken over as the new Couta1 mate :D
Okay, fair enough I do recall one or two comments so perhaps the word never should have been "very seldom" but I recall some people saying they might be a good buy at $2.30 as recently as March 2017 and maybe not, so now TA people are waiting for a confirmed breakout above $3.30 to make it good buying...seems weird ???. Quite the "mystical" art this whole TA thing...doubt I'll really ever understand all the mysticism and nuances...better for a simple bean counting hound to stick with FA supported by basic TA like breaking up through 30 day MA and staying above it....seems to be a strategy that's working out just fine :)
Yes, i'm very pleased with my hold and will continue holding. I have my exit defined if it goes other way around but IMO there is plenty of juice left in AIR. Been doing share trading since 8-9 years and never had lost any money in markets. I make more in share markets then my six figure yearly salary.
I had few friends who sold it there shares in AIR day before the 1h17 announcement based on negative prediction from the analysts and comments in forum posts. now they are kicking themselves.
I can't take over anyone mate :cool:
Im still laughing because of this, thank you.FA people do it too; some more than others. Ownership bias is one of many. One will frequently pump or promote the stock one owns and attack or belittle any one who doesn't agree. Your psychologist can be a valuable tool in explaining why we react the way we do and in changing it to an informed response. Its a constant work in process though as that lil monkey on ones shoulder is always waiting for an opp to sidetrack that rationale. I can see young Burling has got it sorted.:t_up:
Glad to hear you've got an exit strategy Eval.:cool:
No doubt Emirates will make the most of TNZ America's Cup success
Yes well done. AIR can look forward to all the extra flights coming our way. Have been topping up rapidly in the last 4 weeks to compliment the ones bought last Oct in the 1.70s. Wouldn't surprise me if they touched $4 by next div date....about 10 weeks from now;).
Well done mate. Yeah I was topping up in the low, mid, and even high $2 range, (when some people thought I needed to see a psychologist)...not looking so silly now is it ! We are very well positioned with front row seats in business class awaiting that next tasty meal service in September :t_up:
Little smug around here..I remember well those who were humbled...happy the price is at these levels although also a little surprised. still hold a parcel however those that have sat there and realised no money 💰 on the way down and up again and associated volatility have missed out on a once in a decade opportunity :) Time waits for no one ☝️
With so many posters bleating its overpriced its hard not to feel more than a little contented to have held and added to a fulsome position at much lower prices than currently prevailing without selling unlike some who were selling at the mid $2 mark just a few months ago. Fact is a lot of people were calling this a sell at just over $1.70 less than 12 months ago and have missed a circa 100% return in less than a year, inclusive of March 2017 dividend. I guess some people thought we'd be in the GFC MK2 by now.
Proving their deep and lasting commitment to the regions:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...-winter-period
Well we will see how good your gut feeling is, personally I would not buy in now..however easy for me to say given I purchased all below $2. Have 2/3rds what I should have to rebalance. I certainly would not be happy if I was sitting on the sidelines without AIR in my portfolio....so I guess your gut is always moderated by your own position...
You're a brave man seaweed.I expect to see you at the first roundabout i come to , handing out flyers :).
Plenty of buyers not all brave each sale has matching buyer - optimists v pessimists (profit takers too!)
Like to be greedy every now and then. Like to catch that horse and ride it hard to the $4 hurdle and then jump off, let them find their own way back to their "new" stable;). My av price has gone from 1.745 to 2.710 in last couple months. and still in the green today:t_up:.
Hi see weed
AIR has had a magnificent run over this quarter gaining almost exactly $1. The market has clearly realized the operating environment is more benign but also that AIR are executing their business plan in a carefully organized and disciplined manner. Gone is the apparent rush of 2016 to grow as fast as possible and there's now the sense that they're growing in a carefully managed and more disciplined manner. The more they grow the more efficient their operation becomes as they leverage higher revenue off their fixed cost base of circa $600m per annum.
I am modeling $575m before tax this year for 37 cps which put them on a FY17 PE of 8.9. The ten year average is 11. My sense is the world economy is growing okay and there are encouraging signs from Europe that they're emerging from an extended period of very low economic growth. IATA are predicting worldwide air travel to increase by circa 5% per annum and this roughly matches AIR's more carefully measured growth ambitions.
My sense is the company is extremely well lead and managed by a highly capable leadership team and word on the ground I am hearing from AIR employees is morale within the company is very good and obviously their status as #1 employer in N.Z. of choice reflects people's belief they're a superb company to work for. I'd love a consulting job with them but they do almost everything so incredibly well. John Key joining the board is quite a feather in the company's cap and he'll bring excellent international contacts, leadership and business skills to the board and I think Chris Luxon will really enjoy working with him. Further, I believe international investors have a lot of respect for John Key and will be pleased to see him on the board, (remember they're the ones that hold the VAST majority of the shares not controlled by the N.Z. Govt).
From an operational perspective they have a very modern, streamlined and fuel efficient fleet and are within a couple of years of completing a major capex replacement program. From a dividend perspective even at $3.29 there's a compelling g investment case on a five year view as I believe we're looking at circa $1 in ordinary dividends and potentially close to another $1 in special dividends when they hit the three year period of 2020-2022 with minimal capex. They have "truck loads" of imputation credits.
For long term investors if you're looking at getting somewhere between $1.50 - $2.00 in fully imputed dividends back in the next five years what are you really paying now for your long term stake in the airline ? At $1.75 in total dividends inclusive of 3 x 25cent specials I have them on an average gross dividend yield of 14.8% on a five year investment view.
AIR are not expensive when compared to their most relevant measure the PE of QAN. By comparison to American carriers AIR however do look fully priced based on currently known information and based on $575m before tax.
Shareholders have enjoyed a stellar run this quarter so some consolidation around the current level shouldn't be a surprise to anyone while we wait for further clarity on progress from the company which will come from not only their monthly operating stat's but of course the annual result itself in August and management briefings around that followed by potentially a FY18 forecast at the Annual meeting.
The bottom line is actions speak louder than words so to the question are they good buying at this level I would simply say that I'm very happy to continue to hold all of my stake in the company which is my #1 investment position and will remain so for the foreseeable future. I have no intention of crystalizing any part of the significant unrealized profits I'm sitting on.
I have a lot of confidence in management's ability to run this company across the business cycles and there ability to grow the company throughout those cycles. They have admitted they are done for all time with acquisitions so we're extremely unlikely to see any other overseas fishing expeditions in the future
This in many ways has been a watershed year as they've proved the veracity of their business model in the face of a very competitive new environment. As we lap the latter part of this calendar year when at the same time of the year ten new international competitors were running crazy deeply discounted opening special's I believe we'll see some very satisfactory ongoing improvement in yields achieved.
To coin Percy's favorite saying, we are well positioned :)
Good post Mr Beagle, looking ahead to where I'm going to line up my next XOS divvy, I would like to choose Air, but would find myself feeling quite nervous holding 50% of my portfolio in Air at current prices. Will probably seek a more boring option.
Maybe time for a fresh approach mate ? Why not take a 5% investment portfolio position in AIR, throw them in a family trust so you're not tempted to trade them, hold long term and put your feet up in business class and enjoy the regular meal service...maybe pass on some of the meals you don't need to eat to the grandkids :)
Thanks Beagle. Want to get another 5000 to meet my target, on next downer if any. Shareholders seem to be hanging on to see what happens.
I entered at back at $2.37. Have neither added to nor reduced, just sitting tight for now to see where this goes. My original purchase was for dividend income, has been hard to resist the temptation to start exiting once it got to $3.20. Decided to go long haul on this and ride out any turbulence.
Another ripper day for Qantas fast approaching $6 :o