Whatever it is, happy with my more than 50% capital gain excl those juicy special and normal divvies.
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Have reduced my holding a bit, due to being overweight and the recent gains in SP. I'm certainly still confident in the company's ability to perform for the foreseeable future though.
Still holding mine. I sold all my HBL shares for $1.54 to buy AIR at 2.19 to take advantage of the 35 cent dividend.
I hated selling HBL but appears to have worked out ok (at this point in time). Could have just as easily gone the other way :)
Kind of wish AIR wasn't rising so quickly because now "sell" thoughts are creeping in and this was supposed to be a nice little earner for the next 5 years or so.
Wasn't buying sub $2 not that long ago good
At this rate could be doubling me money in less than a year (including dividends)
No worries
I'm find it very relaxing just focusing of my medium term, (5 year) investment case of 5 times 20 cps annual fully imputed dividends and 3 x 25 cps special dividends in FY20-FY22 when there's that massive multi year rest from capex...more than happy to stick with it and let the SP find its own level wherever that may be. I think there's about $1.75, possibly as much as $2.00 in dividends coming back over the next five years so whether its $2.00, $3.00 or even $4.00 with a dividend yield outlook like that what does it really matter :)
Remember there's probably about 90-100 cps free cash flow per annum in those years when there's next to no capex so 25 cps average special is pretty conservative on top of a 20 cps annual dividend in my opinion. The risk is to the upside to that for those not holding :)
Beagle - hate your new name
It's associated with DOG stocks - and bound to bring bad fortune
Whatever individuals, Analysts think.....
IMO AIR future is very bright,
- Top class management and business model
- New 19+ entrance, higher fuel price then fy16 and still on track to 2nd best profits in AIR history
- CAPEX are failing in 2-3 years
- John Key aka Sir is on-board, may have hated as PM but he is business Ace and ex.investor banker :cool:
Very likeable animals with a relentless enthusiasm for sniffing out trouble and opportunities for food.
Stoploss... Dog-gone-it, there's no pleasing everyone so you might as well please yourself :)
No point hounding me about it, for reasons I am not at liberty to go into the cute canine pseudonym is here to stay.
whats the estimate of the possible cost for the Aussie collusion charges.
I reckon about $20m fine could be placed on them.
$10m, less than 1 cent per share in NTA.
Jeez, everybody seems to want to buy AIR shares these days
Maybe even NZ instos Couts - just in case they feel left out.
I'd be surprised if nobody hasn't yet.
Couple of weekends ago I was on a flight to Queenstown from Christchurch. Due to poor weather our flight was diverted to Invercargill airport. Yeah, the bottom of NZ. Everybody on-board was surprised for sure. But Air NZ managed the situation by providing a shuttle bus directly all the way to Queenstown Airport, which was already waiting for us at the terminal by the time we got off the plane, with snacks and water provided. Bus left the airport in less than 15 minutes. Everything went smooth like fire alarm practice we do every occasion in our office. Eventually we arrived in Queenstown Airport four hours past initial scheduled time and everybody went on their way as if nothing happened.
I should've been frustrated due to missing an important breakfast meeting that day but I was more surprised by the level of their risk management and customer services. Nobody complained nor said anything wrong about their service that flight. Level of their customer service was beyond expectation and I don't see much like that in NZ.
Now, if Jetstar was in the same situation...
I have owned AIR for some time and enjoyed a lot of dividends but sold out today - just think the valuation is getting too rich and sentiment about as positive as it can be - time will tell but happy to let others own up here
Very comfortable at FL320 in this extremely well managed company and looking forward to the next meal service :)
NZ Instos didn't want mine at $2.32, so doubt they would touch them with the length of a couple of dreamliners now. Hey Beagle, just to please winner, you could always add Boy after Beagle, mind you that might have a criminal leaning,and we couldn't have any corrupt accountants on here now could we.
Nobody complained. Maybe the passengers were so used to the omni-shambles other airlines seem to turn flight cancellations and diversions into they were gobsmacked to find an airline handling this with speed an efficiency.
The International Brotherhood of Couldn't Give a Toss Airlines won't be happy with Cullen Airlines showing them up like this.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Probably AIR will get a speeding ticket after all this action
We are in full compliance of our disclosure obligations - we showed a cute video and told punters to buckle themselves for the ride of their life so no surprises here.
We also told them about the oxygen and the brace position should the share price hit turbulence
Good for the Airlines, Cheaper Oil, 2018 outlook more brighter for the Airliners:)
http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/14/news/economy/oil-glut-iea-2018-opec/index.html
"Whatever it takes: The International Energy Agency published its first look at 2018 on Wednesday, and the report contains some very bad news for OPEC.
OPEC has been trying for months to eliminate a glut of excess supply that has kept prices from rising. The cartel has pledged to do "whatever it takes."
But its efforts have been blunted by a massive boom in production by U.S. shale operators. The IEA said Wednesday that the trend is likely to continue into next year, with production by non-OPEC nations growing more quickly than global demand.
"'Whatever it takes' might be the mantra, but the current form of 'whatever' is not having as quick an impact as expected," the IEA said.
U.S. crude oil futures dropped 1.4% to trade at $45.84 after the report was released."
Oil drops to 7-month low,
Sharetrader newbie.
I have been reading this forum for a few months, love reading everyones opinions. Trying to learning as I go. Sold 1/3 of my AIR shares today at $3.15. Happy with the price, but I suppose what's the point in selling if I don't have anything lined up to buy?
air PE is still under 10 so it's not expensive in that sense
Sold mine yesterday for $3.185..couldn't resist! Hope to be back in again for the Dividend. ..still like the company tho!
I might wait until after the NZShareholders meeting in AKL on Wednesday night..already own some THL and would like more..and like the look of TRA so will enjoy listening to the CEO's before deciding.
AIR have made steady ongoing improvements in their business model and what we've seen this year which is brand new evidence is their model is now incredibly resilient and highly profitable even in the face of a substantially changed competitive environment. This gives a LOT of confidence looking into the future.
Nobody can reliably tell you where we are in the business cycle. This year I believe we are looking at ~ $575m before tax giving approx. $414m after tax or ~ 37 cps.
The ten year average PE is 11. Pure cyclical companies with no earnings growth should trade on a PE of 10. It is clear that there is some ongoing growth across business cycles, IATA for instance are forecasting ongoing international passenger growth of 5% per annum. I believe in that context a PE of 11 is very reasonable. Further, we live in an ultra low interest rate so adding another 1 multiple for that seems reasonable. A PE of 12 and EPS of 37 cps gives $4.44. (This assumes AIR is currently trading in an operating environment at the mid point of the cycle).
Its clear we're seeing an improving yield environment and competitors are behaving in a generally more rational manner. As I mentioned several times last year, opening specials by new competitors don't last indefinitely so the yield outlook as we lap the period of time in 1H FY17 when ten new competitors were running opening specials for months on end, looks like improving further.. I think the outlook for FY18 and beyond is very sound. N.Z. is a very, very safe destination for tourists and I expect this factor will become increasingly important in the years ahead. I think the outlook as they complete their capex program, fly one of the youngest and from an operational perspective one of the most streamlined fleets in the world and continue to drive efficiencies in their business model and grow in a disciplined manner in line with demand growth, is very bright indeed.
I bought in a 2.97, a day after the earnings announcement. Just sold out today for 3.185, for a tidy profit. Thinking that we might've hit the top for now.
A few cuts in Status Points and Airpoint Dollars in the works from 1 July, especially for regional travellers. The minimum SP earn on regional routes has been cut from 8SP to 4SP.
Like your shorting dag; thats some maths.ps you can edit your post if you weren't shorting:mad ;:;)
I got itchy fingers too, so sold out at $3.195 yesterday.
I hope I won't regret that move. I've had most of my holding since $1.25 four years ago so it's been a great performer for me. Best of luck to those still holding.
from australia
After a decade of underperformance and a stunning turnaround over the last three years, Qantas’ stock price has finally hit the $5.45 price that former chair Margaret Jackson said shareholders would be stupid to reject (when somebody tried to buy them)
Wow - and AIR reaching towards new highs (for 15 or so years) ....AIRlines in favour eh
Yes, even bigboy Buffett who hates airlines now loves airlines. I will also disclose that I sold out yesterday, but only to be poised for entry into another entity, a world away from airlines but just as turbulent.
USA AIRLINE STOCKS HEALTHY TOO Read more »
Great cycle to be in; will follow the trend to the bend ,at the end.
rally at closing. must be some Instos doesn't want to miss out the bargain :cool:
Attachment 8911
Should be an interesting week, see if AIR can break out from this historical 3.xx turning point. Looking very overbought on the indicators, but who knows eh, maybe this is the big one up up and awaaayyyyy.
Check stops.
BAA
Interesting what C Luxton said a couple of weeks ago:
Christopher Luxon said Emirates' suspension of the A380 from July 13 wasn't a surprise and a "rational" to a fall in demand.
"I think a lot of airlines are doing it quite tough at the moment it's part of the cycle. A good year leads to overcapacity and then a price squeeze as airlines battle to fill planes," he said.
I agree with him... on my last couple of travel cycles to Europe for Board meetings there has been a drop off in passengers on Singapore Airlines and Lufthansa flights I have been on. Nice to have more seats to myself while I travel however sixty people on an A380 an't ideal. Good to travel with however not where I would invest.
Not AIR load factors in question here at this time however believe only a matter of time before we get negative headlines in the industry. Your guess where that will take the share price.
For this reason alone I cleared my trading share portfolio on Friday. Just investment parcel now on hand which was purchased at 1.87 average price.
Dividend play with decent buffer for share volatility although given the margin sitting on may just as well cash up the lot...
Very small bit of anecdotal evidence will not scare me off Raz. April stat's for AIR were very strong and May will be out shortly. Personally, I can totally understand why there might be a fall off in demand for travel to Europe at this point. Fortunately we live a long way from the chaos and mayhem in safe little old N.Z., soon to be the home of the America's cup again :t_up: Team New Zealand now red hot favorites, ($1.16 on the N.Z. TAB), with the bookies to bring the old mug home. Meanwhile very strong tourism and immigration stat's continue to provide strong tailwinds for AIR.
Extremely busy domestic year for Air this year, with the mega star Adele, the world masters games and the Lions tour, next year will be significantly quieter on the domestic front than the current one. There's always things going on but these three events were extrodinary in their magnitude.
At this stage every year there's another 70,000 immigrants living here...all wanting to travel and see their new home and invite their friends and family to come and visit them. This population growth is something that hasn't been discussed much before on this thread in terms of being one of the tailwinds driving ongoing demand growth.
While I agree with you I don't imagine there were that many flying in for Adele. To be honest I would be more likely to fly out.
Heehee thats double whammy good for AIR though Meextr. Will keep an eye on AIR's place in the cycle; still good atm imo but thanks for your observations in the USA Raz. Sounds like you clock up a hell of a lot of fly time, not my idea of fun.
Will watch and wait to see which stock I load up on for the upcoming divvy season, Air is one of 3 possibilities Ive lined up, but the NZX looks well and truly fully priced at the moment other than a few or SUM. Might get a nice correction over the next month or so, looks overdue to me, just need some nutter to file a few missiles to speed things up a bit.
one large volumes transaction
316 1,500,000 11:42
Yes as would i !, however they did, see the below. They have also announced something similar for Ed Sheeran in Dunedin.
-----
Air New Zealand says ‘Hello’ to Adele fans
Air New Zealand has announced more than 80 extra flights to and from Auckland to transport Adele fans from throughout the country to see the global superstar perform her first New Zealand tour.
25 November 2016
The airline will operate extra services between Auckland and Wellington, Christchurch, Dunedin and Queenstown in the days leading up and following the singer’s sold-out shows in March 2016.
In an effort to move as many fans as possible, Air New Zealand will use one of its 312 seat Boeing 777-200 aircraft normally dedicated to international routes on some Christchurch-Auckland services, with the rest operated by the A320 fleet.
Air New Zealand Regional GM Direct & Market Development Jeremy O’Brien says, “The extra flights will provide 15,000 more seats for Adele fans who’ve been lucky enough to secure tickets. It’s clear Adele has captivated Kiwi audiences and we’re looking forward to welcoming her fans on board.”
The extra flights go on sale this afternoon.
Ends
Issued by Air New Zealand Public Affairs ph +64 21 747 320
Thats your theory..good luck with that..all the students will not be going around for starters. Everything I'm seeing currently is economic growth running out of juice. If you are buying in at current AIR prices you are an optimist. Not surprised profit taking going down now.
Implied in post #11363 above. AIR's most recent operating stat's do not suggest any slowdown is imminent, in fact quite the opposite. May's stat's out shortly will provide some more factual basis for consideration. Opinion, conjecture and anecdotal observation of a few flights is one thing, operational flight stat's are quite another. (This debate reminds me a bit of people in another thread saying real estate is about to fall off the edge of a cliff but the stat's keep coming out factually supporting at a national level a stable and rising house price trend).Quote:
If you are buying in at current AIR prices you are an optimist
I think its clear why some people want to take profits at this level as historically the SP has struggled to break $3.20 but I remain confident management are executing a very sound business plan and the underlying earnings are very supportive of the SP at this level based on long term PE averages.
Suggest you read yesterdays post again. Implied I would not agree with.
Now to get back to my original comment yesterday...I actually highlighted that it was not a suggestion about AIR operating stats showing a sign of deteriorating however I can see sentiment to the industry changing through media comments flowing from larger players struggling in this part of the cycle. Sentiment to the sector drives matters a great deal in the recent past with AIR share price....remember if you were following Jan last year you will note I mentioned the same line of thought concerning competition heating up for AIR. As it has proven to be the case over time AIR has managed this well.... although sentiment resulted in the share price cliff diving. Possibly a little more explanation will allow you to actual get my original post yesterday. Your comments suggest you did not. In summary my post was all about sentiment not FA or TA.
You may well be right however my point is sentiment has overridden a reputable company and sound management company share price time and again..simple defied FA common sense many times before and specifically with this share in recent history. Ask yourself what has changed? Is this the best share to hold in this point of the cycle for what you seek?
Many have been suggesting they are more compelling other options...
Eval all the best with some of the share I sold today:-)
Special dividends are just that. Special. If regularly paid they are not special. My guess is you will see an increase in regular dividend this year and possibly next year, all going well, but no special dividend in the foreseeable future. Time will tell.
AIR flights are always in my calculation.. However being mean as cats pee ( and some say twice as nasty )..
My flights are always booked for the lowest and fastest.. Some money expended not to hang around airports just for the love of it..
Usually AIR is only on my connection for the return flights.. And yes .. The service and pleasant atmosphere of AIR is very noticeable..
Unexplainable.. Just " Kiwi ". :-))
No complaint about HONG KONG AIR. Turkish was the connection ( full) and the next connection (full).
Plain simple no frills..
Definitely stay away from Pakistan Airways ( dislike strap hanging .. ) Hold very tight please Ding Ding. ..
Not on a trip... A shift of residence for a few months.. Dnipropetrovsk in a couple of weeks time.. Air the apartment kick the Lada into life.. On the road again :-)))
https://www.nzx.com/companies/AIR/announcements/302798
Very happy with those numbers. Yields continue to firm very nicely coming in from a YTD decline of 5.9% last month to 5.4% this month. Yields must have been very strong in May to move the YTD, (11 months stat's) that much. Demand looks solid considering the shoulder season time of year. CASK will be coming down nicely with fleet modernization / streamlining of aircraft type and lower than expected fuel prices which along with the better yields bodes well for a full year profit surprise. Very happy to hold even at the current price. PE is 8.9 based on 36 cps after tax, ($575m before tax, my estimate) well below the 10 year average of 11.
They are good numbers, as expected. A good operator in what is a poorly run industry.
See the share price at a cross roads, if it dips suspect many will have tight stop loss in place to book the recent gains...why give away what is essence equivalent to a few years of dividends now.
Or will be break to new levels. Seems fully priced unless FME & dividend is revised upwards.
Wonder if the have projected excess domestic capacity in the second half of the year. Just sorted 14 domestic bookings over the past week for the second six months of this year and paid the same if not less than last year for similar bookings, surprised. Can't do that on international flights with AIR.
Fully priced relative to which other airlines Raz ?
Raz, you sold your volumes to me yesterday so you can relax now :) and we will enjoy the smooth ride from now on :cool:
Yep, numbers (in isolation) look good. However - they describe the past. As well - don't they include the trickledown effect of one-offs like the Lions tour? How long do you expect this effect to continue?
What is happening afterwards if & when tourism goes down? Pommies have less money due to brexiting their pound, tourists in general learn about a stretched infrastructure in New Zealand as well as about the bad press tourists as well as immigrants often get here (no matter whether they are blamed for traffic incidents, for pollution or for pushing up property prices). All this does not go unnoticed in other parts of the world, and neither do our environmental problems ("wadeable" rivers - lol).
Tourism streams into the other direction (to Europe) might drop somewhat as well - nearly daily news about new terror attacks might discourage some people ...?
Good luck to all holders. Personally I would at current SP levels probably consider to take some money off the table, but that's just me ...
Its the most recent past we have stat's for BP. I think quite a few people aren't understanding how strong current yields are and will get a real surprise when July stat's for the new year (which are unpolluted by data by 1H FY17 stat's when yields were very low), come out relative to July 2016. Management were very confident on the yield and demand front at their recent investor day briefing. I for one am more than happy to follow management guidance and the operating statistics.
FY17 PE QAN 10.6, AIR 8.9 and that's before we start talking about the hound's favorite subject, juicy fully imputed dividends and the prospect of huge fully imputed specials down the track a bit, (Management investor day comment "We have truck loads of imputation credits", make of that what you will)...absolutely no comparison between QAN's dividends for which we can't claim their franking credits and AIR's !
Pushing into the mid 320's .... it'll get there ....and then 330's
No worries methinks
Especially if the America's Cup is won this weekend and the ABs thrash the Lions - we'll be so so happy that 340 could even be on the cards
What's euphoria
330 is not far away...
787 has a nice numerical look to it :D...yes I am pulling some people's leg putting that number out there.
Seriously , I've heard a retroject is coming; an Austen A30 combined with Red Bull :t_up: