Aww I dunno Hoop - I recall buying into the downtrend at .60 and then .50 2013. Same thing, little news, price drifting lower. The same arguments on the thread re TA and FA. Worked out okay then :)
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Aww I dunno Hoop - I recall buying into the downtrend at .60 and then .50 2013. Same thing, little news, price drifting lower. The same arguments on the thread re TA and FA. Worked out okay then :)
I don't mind TA either, folks making their charting patterns self-fulfilling can be a good thing in providing the irrational windfall dips and opportunities that come along.
Whether one buys at a confirmed TA signal or one buys at an FA valuation threshold, an opportunity is still an opportunity.
I think both you and Bunter are right. Based on certain assumptions you get to the same end point .... if things go to plan
The chart below based on the assumption that the market is rationale most of the time. Forget about the madness of last year and that little mountain and you see a steady increase in the share price over time. Assuming the plan works the chart is showing a share price near $2 in 2020. Maybe you can tell what the share price will be in 5 years time!
Mac's FA stuff and business knowledge lets him work out a DCF, all based on assumptions and using sensitive discount rates and all that. He gets a $1.70 valuation (I think) which implies a share price of $2 something in 2018/19 ....if things go to plan
See both approaches give much the same result ... if all goes to plan .... both approaches are 'speculative' and based on assumptions that may or may not eventuate
I think the most successful use both
from observing-most TA followers ,use FA as well(although the opposite is quite often not the case)
It seems weird that you are treating PEB as a stock purely to buy and sell on. What's wrong with buying and holding, having faith in a company and what it is trying to do? Surely all shares aren t to be treated as buy and sell on a daily basis - psochology in the market place means stuff all unless you are looking for short term gains etc. If PEB continues to do good work, who cares about the daily pschology of the desperate one dayers...
I dont buy and sell on a daily basis. Or look for short term gains --I do try to avoid loses though---Im not saying this or that about market psychology---just showing that it is there.
Anything else is just assumptions on your part
Apologies if you thought that is what I was insinuating- Wasn t putting you in that basket skid, I don t assume what others are doing , however I really just wanted to point out that while there is so much daily discussion on this thread, it does seem rather weird , despite the flurry of unrealistic prices last year, I see this share as a slow burner. I am confident that they will increase in price, over time, and they will add to their repertoire of tests for cancer thanks to the bright sparks in Dunedin etc.... Happy to hold long term, I don t think this company will crash and burn.
I dont think it will crash and burn either---slow consistent growth would be good--Im sure most of us would like to see the tests available if we ever need them. (and a kiwi co. be successful)
Of course Winner that would make your rather nice chart a Cxbladder(detect) only chart.
Then one would really need to add charts for Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), Cxbladder(health).
And then probably one, more, or all of Cxcolorectal which is market ready, and the melanoma and gastric pipeline products which may well have found companion diagnostic partners by then too, then perhaps add some other potential early stage pipeline products.
It’s like a sausage machine, the first sausage out of the machine finances the next, cranking away, some will be more successful than others, some will have higher margins, some may not launch at all, but the future looks both diversified and really quite bright, lots of smart people making smart products down there in the Dunedin lab, University of Otago also.
Hence the very real possibility of it being more of a $5 looking chart in that timeframe.
Still got to much time on your hands mac?:):)
Yeah..but you took a big risk to get that big reward..I like to sleep at night knowing that my discipline with a 70+% success rate guarantees me that I will eventually beat the house and win out.....but anyway.... shhhh!!!..Psychic:D..I made a realised capital gain in 2014 within the overall down trend too... using much safer medium term TA buy/sell signals and patterns...(Except my last PEB sell was a portfolio risk/reward efficiency adjustment. As it happened it worked out OK for Me as PEB eventually lost traction)..
I posted my IN and OUT charts + reasons why.. the last time was on 14 Nov 2014 Post #11218..This chart shows my entire trading history with PEB (2 holdings).. I think everyone would agree that I've done well out of PEB using the squiggly line investing discipline.This would be a successful example that Mr Markets actions should never be dismissed over that of FA and its forward FA tools to predict the future..Investors should use both and if there's a TA/FA discrepancy those investors are alerted and warned to the fact that some sort of future corrective action may occur................When it comes down to the nitty gritty I respect Mr Markets actions .. ..that is the main plank to TA discipline...
I routinely use FA for stock selection, so this post is not a personal TA v FA debate.....Investing is a trade and like all good trade workers they should have the ability to successful use any one of their trade tools in their toolbox.
The sausage machine is here for those interested;
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/products/pipeline/
Lol this reminds me of the Brian Fantana quote in Anchorman: 60% of the time, it works everytime..
A 70% success rate (on trades/positions) does not guarantee you that you will "beat" the house (whatever the benchmark is..), as one could easily loose more capital in a single (losing) 30% trade/position than they make in aggregate in their 70% successful trades.
Does that mean you have better than a 70% success rate whip?
Seems a bit closed minded to ignore something that could potentially help
Well yeah, there's all the potential in the world really,
One thing that gives me some confidence is, well firstly, the fact that management have chosen to appoint the two advisory boards.
It takes humble and focused management to actually relinquish full technological control like that, and perhaps some market analysis focus also, they’re not just making idle decisions around the water cooler, you know, seemingly they have enough quality scientific folk watching over them, although I'm not a scientist and take that a face value.
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-u...ific-advisory/
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-u...ical-advisory/
I've made the trip down to Dunedin for a couple of AGM's, and it does seem that the feel is that they are really twitching for cashflow to crank that handle, probably from 2016 I think.
One take away has been that the Cxbladder products will probably have the highest gross margins and thus have been pushed and prioritised to the front of the queue, but then 80% margins are pretty damn high, if Cxcolorectal has even 40% margins that would be a not too bad next product off the rank to fly.
Mmm it's not like i'm a trader but on short-term positions I would probably say that I've had closer to a 30% success rate....
In terms of Long-term positions, well I guess closer to a 100%.
Total return over the last 12 months > 70%.
I guess what let me down was over-thinking/churning my positions in a vein attempt to mitigate the 'downside' potential of suspected "down-trends".
For the record thought, I wasn't scoffing at Hoop getting it right 70% of the time.. I was just pointing out that it can only take a single bad trade/position to wipe out a significant amount of your capital.. in which case a 70% success won't necessarily equate to "guaranteed" (i.e. 100%) outperformance.
Whip..
The TA discipline works exactly the opposite scenario to your way of perceiving it.
Yes it is true you may suffer losses ...but it is the gains which far exceed the value of your losses...
It is extremely rare to see a stock go belly up without any TA sell signals...The whole methodology of the TA discipline is the ability to escape without suffering big losses....the ability to quit your losses early on with the sell signals thereby 90+% of the time they are relativity small losses (10-15%) and TA lets your much more common gains keep on running ... some of them end up being extremely big gains and sometimes some continual upward price movements can last for years...Phaedrus using a similar medium term TA discipline had FBU for 7 years (a six bagger in total)
PEB share price performance has keep TAers out of this stock more often than in it...
EDIT: just read your last post...Yes the gains with your discipline is similar to the common basic medium term TA discipline one would expect at the moment...
It doesn't actually matter what the gross margins are.. whether 80%, 90%, 99% or 1%, GM (as a %) is simply a nominal / rather meaningless value.
In terms of financial metrics, what really matters for PEB (in order of importance) is:
a) Sales;
b) Scalability of those sales;
c) The cost of that scalability; and
d) Gross Profit relative to overhead.
What good is a 99% gross margin percentage when you sell 4 units and are burning $4m a year..
That was a pretty unusual situation--I guess some would argue FA should have caught that--I guess every sector is somehow exposed to the unexpected--plane crash--Ebola--fire at the lab or some contaminant or lab error resulting in a suet --guess there will always be the unexpected remote possibility you cant plan for.
Gross margins are absolutely important !
Gross Margin = (Revenue – COGs) / Revenue
What gross margins provide analysts with is not only a feel for the underlying relative efficacy between products, but it also it provides the basis for determining and calculating forward EBITDA.
Margin analysis is everything in determining forward free cashflows and therefore valuations for molecular diagnostic companies.
Molecular diagnostics, RNA based at least, are very very low capital propositions indeed, once the laboratories are constructed and equipped and the assay software has been developed, there is virtually no capital outlay post product launch.
That's where Pacific Edge are presently at with Cxbladder, they have pretty much invested the capital now and are presently ramping revenues.
The ‘cash burn’ as you call for molecular diagnostic stocks is not proportional or linked to sales or customer numbers like it commonly is with IT tech stocks. It’s a different sector and a different business model.
The lab and sales staff are hired at the get go, right at beginning, and pretty much hold steady in number from that point in time as revenues ramp and grow.
COGs for Cxbladder is presently around $10M, it will go to, by my estimate, to around $19M and hold there when they finish hiring, they have 7 sales staff yet to hire.
At FY19 their goal is $100M in revenues, COGs by my estimation (for Cxbladder) are likely to be around $19M max, EBITDA circa $80M, NPAT quite conservatively at $50M.
Aren't you somewhat confused with this COGS figure and subsequent Gross Margin.
COGS are the actual direct cost of the tests they sell. All the other stuff you mention like sales people etc are expenses, not COGS
Look at the Edison report financials for 2016e to see what I mean. Revenues of 14439 and cost of sales (COGS) of 1990 to give a Gross Profit of 12449 - a Gross Margin of 86%. Sounds about right eh.
Not shown as a line in their financials are cash expenses of 11029. Take that from the Gross Margin and you get EBITDA of 1420.
Get the gist why I think you appear to be a bit confused.
So on your $100m of revenues and 80% Gross Msrgin we get $80m. Take off your $19m of expenses but lets say $20m and we get Ebitda of $60m. There still will be the D and A and maybe if PEB are paying tax by then (don't know that) so a bit of T and as such I would think NPAT would be a lot less than your $50m
My model has a Free Cash Flow of $35m in the year they achieve $100m revenues. That's probably why my DCF valuation is a lot less than yours.
Yep I follow that thanks, and concede too that by pure definition and the precise accounting of costs, COGS will include lab staff and the manufacture of the test kits but not the field sales staff or distribution costs (well postage and handling).
I'm not sure Edison are using a strict apportionment of what should be inside or outside of COGS either actually, they seem to have at FY16 anyway, too little inside and too much outside, COGs in the first year of profitability shouldn’t quite yet be 86%.
It is my confusion though with an apology, perhaps Edison’s also, but on that understanding and through the apportionment of overall holistic costs more precisely, it should be more like;
FY19 $100M revenues, $80M gross profit, $75M EBITDA, $50M NPAT
I’m comfortable with that.
Do note though Winner that the only significant capital outlay would be at FY20 for a lab extension, Pacific Edge have a purchase option on the second half of the floor within the building they occupy in the US, that’s an ambitious sign in itself.
They do need as I understand additional lab equipment for every 40,000 tests when ramping up, but that's sundry capital, thousands, definitely not millions, it's a very very low capital model indeed.
Not much to depreciate on that basis either then, the US lab cost $6M to establish in 2013.
With respect MT, Hoop appears a patient soul, diligent and generously sharing as well, though why would he not simply refer you to the chart that he posted and recently referenced again, which has the medium term indicators on it along with his buys and sells? If you study that chart you will see that apart from his last sell which he noted as better opportunities with less risk elsewhere, the previous trades coincide with the indicators he chose to perfectly announce the time to buy and the time to sell .. which he did. If you need a clue, look at the DMI and align that to the price, then look at whether the other indicators confirm. Hoop patiently explains this time and time again.
Its hard to watch isnt it,PT
He's been trying to make people feel better about losing money ever since last Feb(in other words ,all the way down) with assumptions--''ramping up revenues''--no one knows if they are ramping up revenues(enough to meet their projected growth curve)-----far to few IMO attached to those kind of statements.
Whats the point of have alot of different ''sausages'' in your machine if you (potentially)cant sell them.
Even having the best product is not enough to assume success in the real world of medical commercialization--thats not down ramping -its reality.
If you take that on board and still want to chance an investment to support ,for better ,or worse,a Kiwi co.,then thats fine--but lets keep it real.
Looking at Forbar this morning, they are applying forward net margins above 60%.
I consider that I’ve been really quite conservative in rounding down to $50M NPAT, that’s a 50% net margin but would like to see the FY16 report tabled before revising.
You have 35% net margins Winner which does seem relatively very low, something to reflect on perhaps.
Here we go again, LOL
Meanwhile everyone is waiting for Kaiser Permanentie's clinical trails to finish and that they will do the right thing and adopt PEBs product (instead of one of the other products)
Meanwhile the largest strike of mental health workers has just unfolded against (you guessed it) kaiser P--the reason not wages-or benefits for workers--Nope it s because workers claim that kaiser has cut back so much that they say mental health patients are not receiving proper care.....goes on to say Kaiser is breaking numerous federal and state laws regarding patient care.
So...would Kaiser do a deal on a less effective ,but cheaper cancer diagnostic test---well..we dont know ,but nothing can be assumed at this stage.
How would those figures look if the test was farmed out at half the going rate?
Yup, Skid, Balance, PT - you have added nothing.
PT - you have figures in mind - why not present them?
Balance - more alluding to things . There are loads of things happening, which worries you most?
Skid.. just love to see your personal analysis
Put up or shut up
Im not making any assumptions -by putting up possible scenarios,Im simply pointing out the dangers of assumptions
whether you want to consider it is up to you
about kaiser..
http://www.liberationnews.org/kaiser...orkers-strike/
lets call it variables...
Your right --its been a few days of mandatory office work--time for a break--sun is out (just remember to look past the polish and wax job):):)
re: It is extremely rare to see a stock go belly up without any TA sell signals
Wrong two words ..Whip..
I've posted my reply here on the Using TA to time entries and exits thread as it doesn't relate to the PEB thread.
Not all of the pipeline products will have the exceptionally high cash cow margins that Cxbladder products are forecast to have, some pipeline products may not pass clinical trials, some may not launch at all.
Certainly though, given the innovation within Pacific Edge, the University of Otago, and the scientific and clinical advisory boards, we should anticipate yet more prospective developments coming along and entering the queue.
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/products/pipeline/
It’s likely based on forecast cashflows, the sausage machine schedule may look indicatively something like the chart below. If any particular product falls away at clinical trials or doesn’t work up with adequate margins, there is likely to be another product right behind in the queue to take its position.
The potential for a company like Pacific Edge to become a significant market player with this technology is entirely plausible, particularly with Obamacare actively supporting and pushing for DNA/RNA based clinical solutions. The time is right and they have the tech.
Attachment 7075
Yes, this involves KP's mental health division and is a years-old dispute now coming to a head. KP is a huge company and I would suspect its division that deals with cancer drugs etc is enirely separate and probably well funded. This seems to be borne out by one of the strike leaders who is quoted in the media as saying Kaiser does many things well but underfunds mental health care. I wouldn't read too much into this dispute as being relevant to KP's cancer trials with PEB.
Psychic,
I use any company's information, projections, presentations etc as a guide - not as statements of truth which are going to eventuate. And I monitor carefully what the company asserts and says against developments as they happen. And I talk to competitors, suppliers, creditors, customers etc etc to get alternative and/or affirmative views.
The business/industry/market that PEB is in is very dynamic and becoming crowded (alerted to already by Snapiti) so PEB's competitive edge can only last so long.
There is an imperative need therefore for PEB to get traction and establish market positioning. PEB started its market positioning program in 2012 by using 'user programs' with the intention of shifting the program to full commercial relationships in 2013. Refer AR 2013. Assess and judge for yourself where PEB is at with that strategy of shifting user programs to commercial relationships.
Meanwhile, other players with deeper pockets, market presence and different strategies are entering and/or enhancing their products in the bladder cancer urine test market. It is not a stand still situation where PEB has the luxury of time (and money) to achieve its market positioning! This information is freely available - one only has to search and read!
Thank you Balance but you still have not come up with a threat we might discuss. Alluding to something Snapiti knows about (via Moosie if I recall) is not useful to any here.
Of course there is competition - new and old. I've read of plenty. But does this secret test of yours better the robust performance of Cxbladder? Has it's performance been fully validated? Post it up - lets look at it!
One will come about in time for sure - there are too many chasing this prize. PEB is chasing 10% of the market - hardly world domination. Will your new test make all others defunct?
It would be nice to debate facts rather than opinion here for a change
It's hard to beat 100% sensitivity performance too, and four Cxbladder products that will be saturating the market creating a barrier to entry.
Many others will strut about in the media, it's a sexy sector, perhaps one or two might even consider spending $30M to $60M and have a punt, or perhaps they will waiver and decide to put that cash to work in the market where they have a better chance of success and a less competitive foe like Pacific Edge.
What is satisfying though, of any other possible competition, we are invested in the one that has the best performing product, the first mover advantage with RNA tech, that is two years ahead of any of the others, and even better is right now at the base of a nice revenue ramp up curve:)
Edison cover the competition fairly for those looking for a summary based on more in-depth research.
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....=%%emailaddr%%
Attachment 7077
Teach a man to fish etc.
Really so hard to do some decent research versus taking a company's reports etc as gospel truth?
10% market share is a huge ask for any company - let alone a company from NZ with the limited marketing, promotion, financial and distribution resources like PEB.
The fact that PEB is not prepared to disclose numbers tells me a lot. A company which is tracking against a market share target with confidence will post the numbers as the very act engenders user confidence to pay the product (marketing 101).
Not interested in your opinion Balance, post some fact.
Did you guys not read STMOD's new warning/threat today?
Some of us would like this thread to continue, minus the childish pointless ad hominem stuff.
No, that wouldn't solve anything really. It's not a question of whether I am offended, and the thread is obviously being monitored anyway.
I doubt if I'm the only one who fails to see the point of the personally antagonistic tone it sometimes descends to when there are plenty of issues that could be discussed in an adult and informative way. I'm interested in all contributors' views about PEB, but not their petty personal putdowns and oneupmanship.
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Quic...ail/story.html
This is but one example of what Snapiti has been alerting to in the bladder cancer urine testing space - it is getting crowded. Many fizzes out to oblivion but some are being brought to market.
Those who are funding these developments are not mugs and as part of their due diligence, are certainly aware of the CxBladders in this world.
I have often wondered if I am missing something when I see yet another company entering the space. Afterall, PEB already boasts of such a superior product that it must be sheer foolery to invest in anything else.
This is where it is important to dig deeper into the tests being developed and compare the mechanics of how the tests are being brought to market, and critically, at what price.
And be ever cynical and questioning of company's assertions.
In diagnostic tests such as Cxbladder(detect) it is the early stage tumors that are important as urologist and their patients wish to diagnose cancer as early as possible such that treatment may commence earlier and such that the poor buggers that are inflicted may stand a better chance of recovery.
For the diagnostic tests it is the Tis, Ta, T1, T2, T3 stages that are of most importance.
A good explanation of the stages of cancer can be found here at the US cancer society website;
http://www.cancer.org/treatment/unde...gnosis/staging
Cxbladder(detect) has 100% sensitivity in the detection of Tis, T1, T2, T3 cancer stages, and 68% sensitivity in the Ta stage, which for the Ta cancers is twice as high as Cytology and twice that of any present competition.
In this respect Pacific Edge are a quantum leap ahead in tech and also two to three years ahead in schedule. I think some really do underestimate just how big the gap is and just how much of a disruptive technology this Pacific Edge tech really is.
That's not to say that another company couldn't do the same, but if they set out to achieve 100% sensitivity and fail even by just a few percent they will have burned a lot of R&D cash, millions, for naught.
This very risk creates a high barrier to entry for any company following behind. If they have not produced a 100% product it's very unlikely any company will throw further cash at it to commercialise it when they can invest that cash elsewhere.
We would hear very very few professional clinicians, conscious of litigation, and with lives in their hands, say,
“sure I’ll use a test that is 30% cheaper if its only got 89% T1 sensitivity”
Fair comment and there are other reasons too - like I personally know a high net worth individual (in his 70s) in NZ pumping in many millions of dollars into cancer research as one of his legacy projects.
When venture capitalists are involved in the funding, I tend to think it is more of a judgement call on their part as to how likely they are going to make money from the investments.
It's a fair point, and other than offering that it is probably a funding issue/ resistance to change, the Australasian market is pretty pathetic compared to any given State in the US. They are focused on the right market.
The Health system in NZ hasn't embraced the NMP22 or UroVysion tests either from what I understand What do we make of that?
But the thing is that the established Markers in the US are used.
given that PEB has predicted gaining 1or2% of the market in the first couple years in the US--that would be a good thing to watch to see if they are on track.
If PEB gains traction in market share, we can be sure the company will splash it all over their next results - numbers, sales etc.
There will not be one amongst us who does not want PEB to be successful.
As a country, NZ desperately needs a few high profile outstanding success stories in the biotech/biomedical/pharmaceutical sector. In Australia, Cohlear and SCL lead the way. They serve as inspirations and role models for the younger generations to follow, and their outstanding successes create an environment conducive to universities, small companies and individuals obtaining funding.
PEB needs to embrace investors and shareholders constructively - it means being frank and honest with how they are progressing.
Here's a sincere appeal to PEB to open up and interface with the market like the Diligent's and Xero's of the world. You have everything to gain.
I’ll agree with you Balance in part, it would be good to get a bit more feedback released to the market, it’s not an easy sector within which to assess individual company traction without company feedback.
The release of a bit more newsie sort of info like that below would be good from time to time. If the newly established sales team are busy behind the scenes, cranking the handle, doing what they do, that’s the most important thing for now though.
Perhaps we will see those quarterly updates at some stage, now they are set to ramp it would seem appropriate going forward now.
I dont think it would be the sales team that update the market(whether or not they are busy) it would most likely be someone a bit higher up. They would know these things on a day to day basis i would think-or perhaps at least tally for the month.
For one reason or another ,it is what they are choosing to do at this stage IMO.
If sales are good--im sure all will be forgotten.If they are not so good ,then the no news scenario will have set a precedent.
I have noticed the bio companies have just reported in Australia--im not sure why it hasnt happened with PEB here--could someone clarify?(maybe Im missing something) (perhaps a differnt tax year or quarterly vs half yearly)
Definitely not the sales team - has to be CEO or MD. Quarterly updates like Diligent & Xero would be best.
PEB has 31 March year end so next financial results will be late May. All the more reason why PEB should be updating the market about sales for December quarter to provide some useful guidance.
Notice how there has not been one single announcement by PEB so far this year? For a company which loves to pump out the 'good' news, is it pointing towards something ominous?
Perhaps some advice on CMS shortly also Miner, there’s five weeks left within the reporting period for those invoices to accrue upon an announcement.
The new clinical studies should probably be released in that timeframe adding to the CMS clinical validity dossier we were told about during the HY conference call, the timing for it seems all a bit nine months pregnant now.
Should move insurer contract negotiations nicely along when announced too.
“Once we secure coverage in the public sector (Medicare), we will look to engage insurers Cigna and other major commercial insurers for formal inclusion in the policy as well as negotiate being a contracted provider if we feel it’s in our best interest moving forward”
Looking like 2 big sellers now competing to get out. The 80k to buy at 72c has been taken out.
Let's do a brief review of what PEB is aiming to achieve in the absence of one from PEB so far this year.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific...ream-dw-130949
Excerpt : "Mr Darling says Pacific Edge is expected to be "cashflow positive" in the US within two years. And it isn't expecting to go back to shareholders unless there is a pressing need to set up a lab in another country".
That was October 2012 - and PEB went back to shareholders exactly a year later for $20.5m in new capital. Definitely not in line with expectations!
Cashflow positive in the US within 2 years? Anyone prepared to take bets on this one?
Do I sense that PEB is busy in the background getting its story ready for the next capital raising? You betcha.
Well I bought some today at 73 cents after staying out for a fare while. I dont expect the company to be cashflow positive at the next announcement, but I am hoping for increased sales (like everbody here). I expect they will using money pushing the other just released products to market. (Triage I think they called it?). Anyway, I bought back in as I didn't want to miss out on any potential gains if they do surprise us. However, If the SP drops back to the mid 60's, I'll probably pick up some more. Cheers
What do we know as compared with the prior FY14 period;
-> We know Pacific Edge now have 12 strategic sales staff compared with around 2 or 3.
-> We know Pacific Edge have opened up several new sales regions which are now active
-> We know Pacific Edge are receiving reimbursement from all four network providers (NPNs) now, compared with none yet at FY14.
-> We know Pacific Edge are now receiving reimbursement now from “all the major insurer including Cigna, United, BCBS, Humana, Medicare Advantage plans, and many second tier insurers”.
Flat sales, nope sorry, up and away more like :)
Attachment 7085
I have a real problem, Hancocks, as David Darling is on record as saying the $19m raised is sufficient to take PEB through to cash flow positive. He did not expect to raise any more capital unless there was a pressing need to build another lab. As clear as a a cloudless blue sky on a summer's day.
Implication to me is that the commercialization was already encountering problems when the $20m was raised in Oct 2013.
Unless David Darling was just mouthing off - like Chris Swann with his 'let tens of thousands of tests blossom'. Or am I confusing him with Chairman Mao? :D
Lack of consistency in your comments here Balance ... one minute you say this ...
.Quote:
"Mr Darling says Pacific Edge is expected to be "cashflow positive" in the US within two years"
...and now you are saying this ...
A big difference in meaning here.Quote:
"David Darling is on record as saying the $19m raised is sufficient to take PEB through to cash flow positive."
For example, I wonder if the CEO of the NZ Super Fund (Adrian Orr) "expected" a loss of $200m when he invested in a Portugal bank (how long ago?). Isn't this one of the PIIG countries? Why didn't you warn us all about this potential loss?
...and, in a typical "stirring" manner ... you write this...
...whereas I'm wondering who might be fighting to get in. If they were fighting to get out, they only need to hit the "on market" button.Quote:
"Looking like 2 big sellers now competing to get out. The 80k to buy at 72c has been taken out."
I guess I'm a "glass half full" dude. Much more peaceful life than always looking at the "half empty glass".
I'll expect to raise an eyebrow when the real cornerstone investors start to divest.
I don't see any need to defend PEB on these points Hancocks.
As we know, it is very easy to poke a stick at someone/something from behind the safety of the parapet or some other dark place...
... but things are much easier to comprehend when you have been at the coal face and your hands have been as equally as dirty as those others at the coal face.
Thanks for the 'clarifications' on behalf of Mr Darling, Hancocks.
What management of a company say and how they say about the business in the public arena are actionable - because they influence the market.
Especially when the company is enjoying a share run and is not covered by the main stream brokers - so it's mostly the 'Mum and Dad' type investors who are influenced.
The very bullish comments by Mr Darling and Mr Swann definitely contributed to the share spikes in 2012 - 2014, and they now need to deliver.
Points of order, Dentie :
1. The comments are made by Mr Darling per the article linked - not me. The $19m was raised in July 2012. Anyone reading that article with an open mind is left with the impression Mr Darling is referring to the $19m and the two years to become 'cash flow' positive.
2. Whether sellers are fighting to get out or buyers are fighting to get in depends on the trend (down or up) of the trades. The trend in recent weeks has been ?
3. Cornerstone investors started divesting from 2013.
4. I am concerned here with PEB - what the CEO of NZ Super Fund or Treasury do have nothing to do with PEB. In any case if I was aware of the Super Fund putting money into a PIG bank, I would certainly have warned them against it. Just as I warned investors about Pike River, NZOG, Snakk etc.
Half glass full? Maybe you are referring to your spectacles? In which case, I think the right term to use is 'rose tinted'?
I think in terms of the trend,that Balance has a valid point.(The fact that the last announcement ran the SP into the mid 90s,but failed to hold,supports this)
In terms of FA-I think Hancocks is pretty much spot on--We just dont know with the limited info we have at our disposal-(one of the reasons I sometimes react to some of Macs posts) We are left to fill the vacume with opinions and a search for any info that may influence where the co. is going-including me -(guilty as charged)
I think most agree the products are good--It seems crazy that it could possibly not be enough,but that is the question at this stage.(granted, we would know better if we had quarterlies[please David] )
Half full,half empty,take your choice--its all we have at the moment.(there are a number of reasons to be in either camp)
Points of reply Balance (at the risk of being picky):
1. You may have misinterpreted my point...I don't dispute DD said that ...I am saying there is a big difference between "is expected to" and "is sufficient to". To demonstrate...I "expect" to have $??? in my bank account by August 2015 (true statement BTW) - but that is not certain to happen because I can't control outside events. On the other hand, I am not that stupid to say I "will" have $??? in my bank account by August - for exactly the reason as above. The same applies to DD's statement!
2. Rubbish! Are you telling me when the uptrend was happening in Oct/Nov 13 there weren't sellers fighting to get out? I remember Snapiti was one such seller.
3. A mute point here Balance. A quick glance at the records tells me some may have sold a minute portion of their holdings (others may have been forced to?) ... but the main ones are all still there and some have actually increased their holdings.
4. Point taken.
5. Nope - just always preferred to look on the positive side of things.
I just see a very well structured marketing and commercialisation plan put in place by very smart hard working people, well articulated by Pacific Edge too, Edison and Forbar;
A series of commercial stepping stones, within which the revenue ramp up starts at a point when the company has hired sales staff, has product specific trained them, and they become active within their respective sales regions;
1. CLIA approval
2. US lab construction
3. Cxbladder(detect) product launch
4. NPN network provider agreements
5. KP demonstration user programme agreement
6. Hiring of initial sales force (12 staff)
7. Opening up of initial geographic sales regions
8. Large insurers commencing reimbursement
9. Commence LUG user programmes
10. Start of revenue ramp up <--- WE ARE HERE
11. Cxbladder(triage) product launch
12. Medicare coverage
13. Commencement of insurer contract agreements
14. KP demonstration user programme results
15. KP contract agreement
16. Profitability
17. Cxbladder(predict) product launch
18. Further HMO user programme initiated
19. Veterans Association coverage
20. Onward and upward to $100M revenues
1. So where's the contradiction? You are actually agreeing with my initial comments!
2. Sellers fighting to get out = downtrend. Buyers fighting to get in = uptrend.
3. Minute portion? You may want to recheck your numbers as mine show the Masfens and Harbour selling down rather substantially.
No need to blow a blood vessel - facts are facts, and opinions are opinions. Ultimately, time will prove an opinion right or wrong and then, the opinion can becomes a fact!
And extraordinarily undervalued Hancock’s, even by the most conservative of analysts, many may very well consider this time in the sequence as being the optimal point to accumulate at the bottom of the escalator given the dip investors have been blessed with.
The equation is one which has the key ingredients of success,
Good scientific and commercial management, best performing product within its target market, a disruptive technology, a first mover advantage, no serious competition within two years, an Obamacare DNA/RNA driven tailwind, a second product due to be launched any day now, lot’s more products coming, and a sales team just now on board.
Forsyth Barr: $1.25 BUY rating
Edision Research: $1.16 Edison Report Here
Craig’s Investment Partners: had this to say after the last result;
“Craigs Investment Partners broker, Peter McIntyre, who predicted Pacific Edge had to deliver yesterday on revenue promises, said investors should be impressed with the result”
“He predicted Pacific Edge, if it continued its form, would be positively re-rated by brokers, analysts and ultimately investors in the months ahead”
Yes...We heard you the first time,Mac.
The market is now saying the ball is in PEBs court now
And Hancock's, you're across this, are you able to advise us of how many sales regions are now operating compared with how many were operating this time last year before the sales team were established ?
Time to buy some more if under 70c....This is such a good product, and it all takes time for it to sell itself...and then yearly multiply sales ...2016 will be PEB year...
I'm back in @ 71c. RSI is under 20 and there's historical support at about 10% below this price. I'm prepared to lose up to 10% on this stock (worse case IMO) given the potential (and probable) upside.
Absolutely nothing detrimental has happened - since HY results in November when the SP was 88c. You are correct Balance.
However, factual announcements have seen Superlife Trustee Nominees Ltd (a SSH) increase their holding as well as CX Bladder (Triage) getting launched.
Combine those with all the factual information and positive events still to happen posted by Hancocks and MAC and I would say PEB holders have every right to feel positive.
Notwithstanding this...the SP has dropped 20% (correct again Balance!).
So what does this tell me about Mr Market? Well, some S/H are always going to want to sell for one reason or another (like the Masfens wanting to enter a new venture etc) so that is self explanatory and understandable ... but other than that, based on having no "negative" factual information available - I would say Mr Market is not as intelligent as some would have us believe.
Of course, there are always those people who want to be investors but are either too lazy to do any research - or simply want to rely on what other perceived guru's say. And on their say so, these people start selling. They have no idea why they were in the stock in the first place, no idea about the company or market they operate in and consequently no idea why they hit the sell button. It is these uneducated & nervous "clowns" that create opportunities for the more informed amongst us because of the inefficient market they create. And I think that is where we are now.
SP Value - in this type of company - in its current market ... is just perceived. It just means the bounce will be even more pronounced later on.
when is PEB due for their next results announcement, end of Feb early March?
In the first few months of 2014 there were a number of announcements about various initiatives which excited the market, but no financial information was released until the full year results were published on 28 May.
I emailed the company this afternoon asking when PEB intended to provide an update to the market about sales, revenue and/or other developments. I'll post the reply when I receive it.
Hi Snapiti - sorry...should have been even more specific by saying "some elements of Mr Market...".
I did go on to mention about how the market was inefficient (due to these elements). You know as well as I do that if the market was efficient (ie - always perfectly priced), you and I would probably not be in the market because there most likely wouldn't be a market (ie no profit opportunities).
I agree the reason the share price moved up to the crazy levels was due to hype, spin and uneducated clowns with too much money on their hands. You would be thankful for that I'm sure as you made your escape. But I don't agree that the SP has deflated simply because of a lack of hype & spin either. As mentioned, there has been no negative facts announced since the HY report although there is on going negative opinions about all sorts of things on here. Given the volume selling, I think there is just a lot of nervous nellies being scared (manipulated?) out of their smallish share holdings .... all with the price drifting down and down and down....which of course, at the right time, will create another opportunity for the educated buyers (or is that traders?)
With no factual announcements from PEB themselves, why would someone sell until that happens? With the small volumes, why would they need the money? A share only turns into cash when one sells.....
By the way ... what is the antonym for hype? I think that is what is contributing to the drift downwards.....
Do you think PEB have just been standing still while the industry has not been standing still? Do you think they are not aware of any competition?
The worst that can happen is PEB won't sell anything (out of their suite of products) and that better competition will arrive in their sandpit.
Have you lost interest in PEB and become Mr Doomsdayer because PEB are not going to hold a 100% monopoly anymore and no longer have the playing field to themselves?
Actually, given their accuracy, it will probably be easier for PEB to do their marketing when all their competitors start to launch their products.
Not me but not unhappy that it happened. I'm sure there will be more to come despite all the prophets of doom on here. I'm on the right side of the ledger, holding over 300k shares and quietly confident that there will be a good result for PEB if not this year then certainly in 2016.
I've been well rewarded by being a patient long-term holder of many companies and am not about to jump out of PEB on the basis of all the angst that's being spouted by a few negative types on here.
We need more innovative NZ companies competing on the world stage and they need to be supported in their endeavours. That's why I'm also holding XRO and DIL and happy with both of those too. However, I can understand the unhappiness of those who leapt into the market at the crazy prices all three companies were selling at last year.