I do hope so but there's a pesky element that exists on ASX called "Shorters" and they won't spare unfortunately.
Printable View
At the moment there is a pie (milk) and sub-pie (A2 milk).
ATM have a significant piece of the A2 milk pie but are really small players in the milk pie - and that is the only pie that there would be.
Their differentiator would be gone.
May be a wee ways away but likely to happen.
I understand way back when A2 was the normal milk and A1 came about as a mutation that seemed to become the prevalent type.
I know nothing about shorters, rightly or wrongly. Im 30 and hold investments with retirement in mind so I'm not too worried by the volatility created by traders. I see the main risk to A2 share price in the near term is wider sharemarket PE retraction which will hit higher growth stocks more heavily and or recession due to global factors (brexit/tradewars). Over time Im comfortable with my holding size and will only exit if dynamics for A2 change. These could be competition, IP loss, regulation changes etc.
But by then they wouldn't necessarily need a differentiator.
As everyone is slowly moving to make A2 milk pies alongside their normal pies - they massively boost awareness and promotion of the a2 milk pie.
ATM are ready to benefit from this from being significantly ahead of everyone else. So although they start to share the a2 milk pie, the pie is getting larger by the year.
By the time there are no normal pies being made ATM's market share could be massive.
You're on track. It's about time in the market, not short term timing the market with this gem.
I've been in ATM since 2014 and have seen shorters come and go. I've seen fearsome comparisons to BAL come and go. Fears of China regulation come and go etc..
The big picture is that in FY18 ATM sales grew 68% to $923 mill. Net P was up 116% to $196 mill and Cash on Hand was up 131% to $231 mill.
For FY19 if revenue increases at a slower pace (say) 40% ATM's revenue could reach $1.3 b, Net P and Cash on Hand could double. (DYOR) There are few other NZX companies that offer this potential.
The next update will provide info to assess progress to these goals, and until then all else is just speculation.