Traders dream stock this one!!!
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Attachment 10075 going alright
Where's that?
So was USB shorting? I have a look the SP on the 10/10 and the 11/11 They became sub holding on the 10th and SP was around $10.21 then sold some on the 11th when the SP was lower than on the 10th. Perhaps they just like others got cold feet and off load some?
Well I think yesterday’s lesson might have taken hold. Before buying wait to see what Australia decides to do....... It’s a crazy market and only longterm investments should be purchased unless you have a clue what you are doing......
Good Q1 — Gaining share in most markets and “anticipate growth in revenue” while maintaining ebitda margins
All good stuff
No worries
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...393/288720.pdf
From the presentation
Looks solid to me, glad I added to Synlait recently. I think this schizophrenic market might have got more than a little carried away knocking down the milk twins.
Good to to see China value market share increase 10% in just 3 months (5.1% in June to 5.6% in September).
Thar she blows again...
Not from A2 IMHO. From today's presentation......(strategic alliances more the A2 style.)
Attachment 10082
Some sorters are going to be badly burned today. Burn baby burn !
I was close to selling last week but then a little voice popped into my head that just said "look at all that cash".
Quite a subdued response in Australia. Maybe this afternoon might be better. Onward and upward I think
Wondering what bull... has to say this time?
And on National Radio businness news this afternoon A2 Milk's sluggish share price 'old news' to CE who sold stake. Ms Hrdlicka attributes decline in share price to mumblings around the US trade war with China & China cracking down on luxury goods. No worries.
https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/p...who-sold-stake
Yeah, she's clearly responsible for the US/China trade wars, the FED's interest rate increases and last week's sell off in global shares. She's probably also got a hand in Brexit, so how dares she talk about being focused on driving excellent outcomes for the company and shareholders....
No I don't. I think that was seriously bad judgment by her and the company. However, looking past that, nothing has changed, and I think it's time to move on.
Today's update reconfirms what the company has been saying and it is promising another update at the agm. It is a great NZ succes story, yet the journo on national radio asks two questions about the share sales and none about the company, its story or its prospects...
She probably didn't have much influence on todays update,and its still to early to judge her performance.In hidsight though it might have been better for her to finish her contract with jetheap.Hence she would not have been allocated the same amount of shares.The board do need to answer the question as to why they thought it necessary to headhunt her in the first place.
Perhaps if I manage to get to the agm I will ask!
It's a tough one to value that's for sure... A2 now reckon they have 5.6% of a $25B dollar pie that's growing YoY. Not only is the pie getting larger but so is their slice (10% bigger slice in the past 3 months alone).
5.6% of 25B is 1.4B in sales from infant formula alone with lots more growth to come. A2 hope to achieve a 10% market share in china not to mention all the other markets they're expanding into. The market may not currently value the stock at more than $12.20 but I certainly do.
The market share numbers are in the presentation on page 26 however the actual size of the market being worth $25B I've not seen much data on to be honest. It's just what I've seen thrown around so don't take it as gospel. If anyone has any source for the size of the market I would be interested in reading it. $1.4B in sales in just the high margin Chinese IF market so quickly does seem a little too good to be true.
I can't give you a dollar amount in what I value it, I have no idea. All I know is definitely more than $12.20.
Those figures not quite right.
25B is estimate of global infant formula sales, give or take. The 5.6% share is what A2 claim they have in the Chinese market, not globally. For instance, they claim to have 32% share in Australia, but nothing in USA as sales there are mostly of liquid milk. Not sure what share of global sales of infant formula A2 currently has though, would be interesting to know. I doubt more than 2%.
According to Sharechat analyst's predict $1.25B in sales to June, not 1.4B, and certainly not as it stands now.
In the Annual Report they say China and Other Asia sales were $233.6m and mentioned this 5.1% IF market share (up from 2.8% a year earlier.
Allfromacell — Work something out from this but $25 billion doesn’t seem to come into it.
Interested to see what you come up with .....and it’s probably not $12.20
Beg to differ, I've seen estimates of the Chinese market alone at $US 20 billion. ATM's 5.6% of that = approx $US 1.1 billion sales out of China alone.
Thing is, at the end of the day, China estimates are just that - estimates.
Seems ATM is well on the way to $1.2 to $1.3 billion TOTAL sales in FY19, but DYOR (I'm a tab biased.)
Nothing has changed?
Perception and reputation are very important aspects of how investors and markets view and value a stock, which can lead to perception of the company's products as well.
ATM had a superb reputation and perception in the market as a company - built up over the last 2 decades (some very serious hard work and sacrifice by the original founders against all the odds) and what she has done, in one move, is to damage that reputation and perception.
ATM will recover but it is going to take years (especially with her at the helm) to rebuild that reputation and perception.
Not time to move on - it is important that the board and management of this company are kept on notice not to f**k like that again.
Uh oh, Balance on the ATM thread! Lol.
It's true though, that Jayne rattled shareholders with her ill-considered sell out, but she has a truck load more shares coming if she stays the course and performs. So angst shifts to the Board who agreed such a shonky onboarding package, hopefully a lesson learned for both.
Today's presentation restores a great deal of confidence that despite some dubious remuneration decisions the business is going gangbusters.
Only cloud on the horizon is locking in secure supply to their key market China. I have confidence that the new regime will facilitate whatever is good for China, and ATM is good, very good.
I expect shareholders will move on from the recent debacle and those who held and those who bought recently will look back in the near future and either wonder whether the fuss was worth the SP hammering, or rejoice in the opportunity it presented to buy at relatively low multiples.
ATM is a massive success, which will continue to reward shareholders for years to come.
Board reviewing options for wise use of capital part of which is further investment in canning and blending (p28) Further investment in synlait on the way? Given the Synlait focus on added value nutritional products and new R&D investment I see some real benefit to A2 here. Further Synlait have the most comprehensive provenance and naturalness (grass fed) farm assurance programmes that exist in the nz market in my view (unsure about aus). Both areas of focus for A2 (p13)
Disc hold both 3:1 sml:atm
From twitterland ......A2 winning big time?
@marklisternz
Danone just said it saw a 20% drop in infant formula sales into China during the September quarter. Interesting given the positive update from a2 Milk this morning, where the company announced some solid market share gains in China.
Bit more on Danone September quarter disaster in China from Reuters
Sales of Danone’s ‘Early Life Nutrition’ products in China fell 20 percent in the third quarter after growing by around 30 percent in the second quarter of 2018 and by over 50 percent in the third-quarter 2017.
In China, where Danone competes in the baby food market with Nestle and Reckitt Benckiser, there has been strong demand for baby formula products thanks to a sharp rise in birth rates tied to the end of China’s one-child policy, and the emergence of new cities and an affluent middle class.
The peak in birth rates, however, happened in 2016 and started slowing down in late 2017, leading Danone to caution that the Chinese market will progressively show more normal trends from the second half of 2018 onwards.
Danone’s indirect E-commerce infant formula sales had also benefited last year from China’s decision to delay regulation of cross-border e-commerce, which led to stocking up by traders.
https://www.reuters.com/article/dano...-idUSL8N1WX0P7
The Asians have been producing imitation meat from tofu for vegetarians since 30 years ago! Looks like meat, taste like meat and has texture of meat.
The Japanese has been producing imitation fish and seafood (surimi) since the 1970s.
Served to grow the market but there has been no real switch out of the real stuff into the imitation stuff.
Absolutely - and money will grow on trees.
Personally not sure about ATM's longterm success ... but not too concerned about fake meat and milk (and money ;)); Sure - there will be people who use the fake stuff but I am sure there always will be people who want the real thing ... and are prepared to pay a premium for it.
When ATM China share goes from 5.1% to 5.6% how much extra revenue does this generate for A2?
Still weird Danone China IF sales down 20% in Sept quarter ....market must be shrinking!
If you believe Morgans research it will add over $400 mill to revenue ($1.4 billion total revenue for FY19) or about $100 mill in net profit.
If you believe exports of IF from Lyttelton being up 40% for the first 2 months of FY19, then maybe the Morgans figure of total FY19 sales is achievable. Morgans have a target SP FY19 of $A 14.40 (Fwd P/E of around 31)
What's your thinking Winner?
.
Article on Nestle A2 in NZ and Oz.
https://www.nutraingredients-asia.co...TFjiyhvPHs&p2=
Article in the Herald this morning says Herd Licker set to earn 8 million this year, shareholders association says her remuneration package is a shocker considering she hasn't done anything yet and is simply riding off the back of all the hard work done by Geoff Babidge, I agree totally no finer example of a Mega Trougher.
We should all know by now that we minority shareholders cannot influence the outcome of the vote (doesn't mean we shouldn't vote though - a it is at least a quantifiable sign of descent. But as Derek Handley learnt yesterday at the SKY TV AGM there is nothing to stop minority shareholders attempting to hold directors to account at the AGM
I also read the Herald article, and agree with the Shareholders Assoc. Hrdlicka need to produce the goods to earn her $8. mill. this year, we all know that she has no loyalty to A2 this she clearly demonstrated by hocking off all her free shares within two months in the job.
We maybe a majority when it comes to voting, and can't influence the outcome, but at least I have 27,000 odd more votes to cast than she has.
I agree re total figs heading to $1.4b
Morgans are forecasting $500m sales of IF to China in FY19 (sounds about right - maybe a tab high.)
I suspect that ATM's FY18 fig of $233 mill misses the influence of the Daigou channel which see's a large % of the IF sales attributed to Australia actually heading to China?
Also, I am rather sceptical re the total size of the IF mkt in China. You say $25b I'm happier at $20b. But it may be less.
Even if the IF China market is $20 billion how come A2 have over 5% share when their total sales worldwide are just over $1 billion now ( and this includes ordinary milk and other stuff as well as IF)
Also what you think of Danone saying China slack as in the September quarter (sales down 20%)
What’s happening to share price today .....it was meant to be recovering
As I've been trying to say.... I believe ATM's published/audited sales figs and NZ IF export stats (up 40%), BUT I'm cynical of the Total China IF market figs, I reckon it is currently lower than the $20 b. (I seem to recall the oft quoted $20 b figure was a future estimated fig..... possibly FY20?)
Re Danone - I can't comment, but would like to think that A2 milk is preferred due to the tendency for Asian tummy's as opposed to A1 based products such as Danone...... but there could be many other factors, price, availability, channels of distribution etc. The only thing I take from the news is that once again A2 is doing a great job in a difficult market.
Re latest price slump - I agree with allfromacell, the China share market and financial markets are struggling and the trade wars are just starting. This may have market implications for ATM in second half FY19. However, China may give priority to non USA trading partners. See this article. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/18/i...ion/index.html
$22m in shares sold by execs
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...orth-of-shares
Jeez ...LinkedIn tells me that some dude at A2 did a search and my name came up
Just waiting for the job offer ....maybe Jaynes job
Haha my mrs gets these search notifications all the time from big NZ companies.
One thing to add to the future of ATM. Has anyone taken the 10% drop in the last 6 months for the NZ dollar into account. We could see a 10% increase in the bottom line. Maybe $300+ million profit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/c...92&sh=b30a7e09
A2 Platinum still flying off the shelves in this video. Lots of commenters saying formula is sold out by pre orders at super markets in Aus before it even hits the shelves.
Sales continue to go gangbusters in China too, with a 10% increase in market share in 3 months sales must be excellent. Not long until we get the 4 month trading update at the AGM and shorts now up over 5% this is setting up nicely for a squeeze if the update surprises on the upside.
But if a down day on the ASX so far today
Maybe not a good start to the week for us
Fun in Woolworths
https://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...9c235b0fac4b1a
All these supermarkets say they will do something because the public don’t like to see it happening. It happens with Coca Cola in New Zealand, but in this case Coca Cola want it to stop. The purchasers mainly dairy owners just meet management at the back of the supermarket and buy in bulk as it is cheaper than buying via Coca Cola. Supermarkets don’t care where they get their sales from as long as they sell as much as they can and I don’t think A2 care where they sell..... Or would they get more selling it to China direct?
share price under $10;on NZX tomorrow by looks of it ...and SML will go down as well.
One wonders if the correction hasn't almost run its course, what with examples like this of ongoing rampant demand and the company itself confirming very solid sales for the first quarter. Synlait too has fallen a very long way from $13 in recent weeks. I think those who have the patience and that can withstand the current volatility will be well rewarded in time. Disc: Holding good sized position in Synlait.
Farmers weekly article on current A2 (and Synlait) share price issues
https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/...s-rules-change
You wish. As if any Company would go completely unhedged.
Having said that, they may as well, as all hedging ever does is provide certainty for the duration of their hedge book, with a little bit of latitude for gains (or losses) at the margin, if their Treasurer has been given some 'flexibility' in the risk tolerance area. Boards these days are a little gun shy when it comes to governance issues; it was far less tied up in mumbo-jumbo practice and policy documentation in my day.
Discl: Treasurer for 35 years
"Both A2 and Synlait are speculative stocks with prices that rose by $10 over the past two years before the recent retreat."
Interesting perspective?
Snakk and Plexxxure are speculative in my books but hi, who am I to argue with a journo if he writes athat companies which have real operations making hundreds of millions of dollars of sales and profits are speculative!