Are you for real?
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I didn't say the leader is unimportant, I'm saying that to look at the leader as the whole party offering, is stupid. The rest of the Labour Party, and potentially the Greens also, have energetic thinkers in there, people keen to write new policies for NZ that are worthy of keeping. What do I see trailing behind the current Prime Minister? There's plenty of dead wood in there, some major blunders have been made by many National ministers.
So now we're hearing all of the sensible reasons for John Key to quit now- family, timing to get Bill English over the line, NZ in a great spot, out on a high, etc.
The fact is that all those people who voted him in again, back in 2014, expected him to stay on as PM until the 2017 elections unless something terrible happened, that was the contract. He said he'd do that job for another three years, he wanted that job. And now he just gets to say "No thanks"?
I think the main reason he's going now, is to keep Brand Key more or less intact. He knows that's still worth quite a bit. In the absence of any team in National putting in another leader, he had to arrange the exit himself.
And those are?
You have to admit that the chances of National taking the 2017 elections have probably dropped quite a bit, so in that way John Key has sabotaged his own party's interests by leaving. Now the public won't be looking at John Key on TV glossing over all the issues, and instead might be starting to think - just what is their policy on this stuff anyway? And is it really in my best interest, or even the interests of the country as a whole? And maybe they'll be offered Labour-Green policies that look a lot more sensible.
I have been watching on TV for some examples of John Key's legacy. Being a smiling, affable TV frontsperson is one thing, guiding us through tough times (you could also say stumbling through), but again there isn't much that is tangible left behind. There have been plenty of other good deeds from previous governments that have been unwound a bit during his time. I detest this government for that.
A Britsh perspective
Keys real kegacy- not stuffing things up
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/12...lack-blunders/
That's very insightful, another way of looking at the situation. Is Matthew Plummer a journalist from Wellington? He's too well informed to be based in the UK.
https://twitter.com/mwyp?lang=en
Not a bad summation in that article.
Agree - Amy Adams would be a formidable choice ... and I am saying this not just because she is our local MP ;). She has her head firmly screwed on, the heart in the right place, she cares, is pragmatic and she is able to communicate appropriately with people from all walks of life. Not a political extremist (like Judith ...) and she might be as well the only one able to control the other mentioned female option in cabinet.
I'd love to see her as our next PM, think however that the choice will likely be Bill English. I'd see Bill politically in the same ball park, but he might find it more difficult to long term survive against Judith ... as well, he does have some baggage in the 2002 election results, which Amy has not.
I think Amy could turn into the New Zealand version of Angela Merkel ... interesting times.
Bill is an excellent minister, particularly in finance portfolio. But he's not inspirational, not leadership material, although up against Little he wouldn't look too bad. Your comments about Adams are interesting - you're obviously more familiar with her than I am, having only seen and heard on TV/radio, but she's impressive, quite dynamic, comes across as a class act, and that's what is needed to follow John Key.
Voted Amy Adams too in the NBR poll and I'm neither a National nor a Labour party supporter :)
Ah - but have you voted in the important poll ? :D
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...-preferred-P-M
Now that John Key has resigned, when will Andrew Little give up his leadership of the Labour Party too? It should be soon to make the 2017 election really interesting :p
Andrew is a real person not the sort of guy whose sole purpose was to do anything to stay in power using crosby/textor, photo opps etc . What legacy will there be for Key; nothing except looking after no 1.
Sorry you feel that way about John Key.
From my point of view - Key is the first NZ PM I remember who is after 8 years in government still popular and the first who left on his own account. Every other PM I remember got corrupted by power and left only after getting kicked out by the voters.
He took over the helm in 2008 when the GFC was at its worst and is handing over responsibility 8 years later with the NZ economy being (compared to the other OECD countries) in excellent shape. Low (in comparison) debts and healthy growth rates.
Ah yes - and his party has in the latest polls something like 50% support. Can you remember any Labour PM who ever achieved anything similar?
Sure - nobody is perfect and there are things which could have been dealt with better (e.g. superannuation long term affordability, housing crisis). Problem is that a highly incapable and self centred bunch of opposition parties never managed to offer a credible alternative to John Key. Is this something we should blame John for? I don't think so.
I wish him well and am glad that he was for 8 years our PM, despite a bunch of constantly whinging lefties who always tried to badmouth him, but never managed to offer a better alternative (maybe with the exception of Shearer, but he was too capable and therefore killed off by the Lefties themselves).
Yes, some of the best years of our lives.Quote:
I wish him well and am glad that he was for 8 years our PM, despite a bunch of constantly whinging lefties who always tried to badmouth him, but never managed to offer a better alternative (maybe with the exception of Shearer, but he was too capable and therefore killed off by the Lefties themselves).
Now wait for the dissenting voices!
:cool:
OMG - Jonathan Coleman fancies his chances as PM
Labour must be hoping like hell he comes through
Or Judith Collins, and Bill English would also be fine. Collins might be the unknown, maybe she would get funding from business people, I'm still convinced it all comes down to funding in the end.
The Left shouldn't get too confident, they have to work hard, and get some funds in, as the graph shows.
https://bootstheory.wordpress.com/20...ont-get-cocky/
That might be too subtle, my scientific comrade.
Bryce Edwards today, on Key's decision to look after No. 1.Quote:
We – the left, the progressive movement, pick your own label – now have our best chance in nearly a decade. Not just to win. Not just to get comfy in the back of a Crown limo or find out if the seats really are greener on the other side of the House. We can get a Labour-Green government which plans for the future and rebuilds New Zealand into a country which cares about people, leads the world in our response to climate change and growing corporate power, and promotes strong, progressive values over the nasty, cynical individualism of the right.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11761271
Yes accurate article about the Selfish Key by Bryce Edwards.
Key's selfish calculation
Key has probably seen the writing on the wall. The chances of winning a fourth election, and forming a government without Peters has been growing slimmer. He has therefore decided that it is better to get out now rather than have his legacy eroded by involvement in such failure and fracture.
Hence Key has made a decision based on his own needs - certainly not those of National. There is no doubt that National would have a better chance of winning a fourth term under Key's leadership than anyone else. His leadership is probably worth 3-5 percentage points for National. We might expect that a National Party under Bill English or Paula Bennett would struggle to get even 45 per cent of the party vote. So if Key really believed in helping keep Labour or New Zealand First out of office, he would have stayed to fight on.
Instead he's thrown a "hospital pass" to the rest of the caucus. Bill English will get the job as Prime Minister. He's probably got the best chance of keeping National in with a chance. And in the way that Key has timed his announcement - leaving his caucus only seven days to make a decision - and in his very significant endorsement of English, has effectively acted to keep any other rivals from taking the job.
New Zealand will remember John Key mostly as a successful prime minister. Part of this has been down to his strong forte in making political calculations. There should be no doubt that he used these skills in weighing up whether to go into a fourth election. And he has probably made the right call in judging that the risks to his legacy, reputation, and enjoyment in office were seriously negative if he stayed in the game. But the National Party might have reason to question the consequences of his latest decision
Tom Scott, good one.
I didn't realise that the main role of the PM was to stay popular?
You can do that by deferring the hard decisions till some later player - like superann.
Lambast Labour for the housing woes of the time then do nothing about them till they are much worse - look over there, move along nothing to see here.
He has done nothing to transform the economy - bring in more cheap labour doesn't a transformation make.
I agree dobby41, this now feels like a caretaker govt, ten years of treading water, rather than a progressive one.
I have to agree with Fran O'Sullivan too.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...+December+2016
Eight (more) wasted years
https://croakingcassandra.com/
Michael a good bloke so have a read - EZ should like it
Quote -
There has been no “very big step change” in our economic performance. What is worse perhaps, there has been no serious attempt to bring about such a change
Solid economic progress including substantial rises in the standard of living, are not made by dramatic "step changes".
They are made by the cumulative power of compound interest economic growth in a free market.
Socialist, interventionist "step changes" a la Venezuela, Cuba result in beggaring a country as the instigators understand nothing of competition, economics, enterprise, technological progress and think "they can pick winners" which any amount of history has shown they can't. The marketplace and consumers are the only ones who can pick winners.
The National Goverments of Holyoake through to Muldoon were genuine “ centre-right ” with their policies. Following National governments have moved more to the right with the Key lead present lot implementing Act policies while pretending to be more centre. ( less income tax, a determined reduction in Govt. services and more reliance on private benevolence to support the disadvantaged.)
The sale of State housing being a prime example. Also it has become more and more obvious that
there is a determined and organised assault on the oppostion, an example being the continual attacks on the personalities of Labour leaders, (Clarke, Goff, Shearer, Cunliffe, and now Little ) as an example the Press on Saturday devoted a full page to 2 articles on the short- comings of Little.
It is ok to have lobby groups representing farming, business etc. but any worker organistion must be strongly resisted as counter productive.
Surprisingly, I am not really a Labour supporter, but the pendulum has swung too far to the right and
hard won working conditions have been eroded. Pendulums however swing bothways.
Though the far right must be still be smiling. The workers even elected Trump in the US.!
westerly
Good to see Paula Bennett going for deputy to English. That combination would work well, especially at election time.
An interesting mix there, obviously a centre-right person. Some things I agreed on, some I didn't like the sound of. I don't mind the State getting involved in stuff sometimes, as they get the tax back on the work, so they can do it the cheapest. And, it employs people, trains them up. Those employees then keep city centres and regions vibrant, for example. Labour grew the economy when they were in, that graph on GDP showed it. National's graph looks pathetic by comparison.
Cassandra was also very wrong about iPredict - like John Key - VicLink decided to end the operation. Whatever they say, they were happy to end it, they always had choices. There's at least $20k flooding out of there every day at the moment. Whoever MBW is, with $26k odd, that money is still there. Could be the National Party's No.15 account. They probably had a few.
Big loss to Labour party.
Their musical talent,, David Shearer, is leaving. They will need a new xocalist/guitarist.
David Shearer likely to head off on a new job for the UN in Sudan. This leaves the Mt Albert electorate having a by-election early next year. It's possible the event could become an early general election, it would depend on which main party is feeling the least organised.
I must admit, every time I drive past David Shearer's prominent but shabby local office on the corner in Mt Albert, I wonder why he doesn't get it painted - he doesn't seem to care. You wouldn't see a National MP with such poor branding. Yes, Labour are far more likely to look after the interests of the majority of the population and the vulnerable, they don't have to look like their MPs don't have two pennies to rub together.
Interesting to note that energetic List MP Jacinda Ardern (graduate of UOW, born in Hamilton) moved house into the Mt Albert electorate early this year. Well it worked for Michael Wood, Jacinda won't have to wait long if it all pans out. All the best.
FP, surely you'd want to see an early election, Bill English and Paula Bennett, the new dream team. Andrew Little even called for an early election on TV this morning. Bring it on. How quickly the landscape has changed.
Here's the interview where Paula "Hyperbowl" Bennett got her new middle name. She's so brainy!
http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news/clima...-video-6464414
A lot of people say hyperbowl. Beats me, but I don't think it's a lack of brain power with Paula Bennett. She's bright. I have heard someone reading the word who simply misread it without realising, but certainly knew the correct pronunciation. I have that problem with 'misled', which goes into my brain as 'missaled'. You should get onto your labour party mates; a high percentage of whom pronounce 'women' as 'woman', and yes, there are culprits in National too. There is one (non national) MP who refers to a misconception as a misnomer.
As far as bringing the election forward, I couldn't care less, except they are expensive so it's disappointing to get less than three years out of a parliamentary term. Far cheaper to hold a by-election.
Not everyone had the opportunity of a classical education. Or wanted it.
I listen to a lot of audio books and podcasts - it is not at all uncommon for words to be mispronounced, especially words not so commonly used in daily speech. And these recordings have producers as well as readers.
I think it quite sad if people crack up at mispronunciations, and especially use them as sticks to beat someone with.
Yes, that's correct, normally you'd let it go. But these are people who are on the world stage, who are supposed to represent NZ at important events like climate change signings. In the near future the Climate Change portfolio will not be dumped on someone who hasn't got much to do, or is just good at bluster. It might be the most important portfolio. In which case, to have any credibility, that cabinet minister needs to be sure on their words, their thinking, their strategy and their policies. Not good enough, just not good enough.
Do you mean he only loosely follows the law?
Speaking of blowhards, even Cameron Slater is not going to support National now.. this is the start of the exodus of party funding and enthusiasm Bill is known for
http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2016/12/co...-bill-gets-pm/
The leadership race is over, but can Paula Bennett be the deputy please?
Ahh, the whaleoil site or better be called a trumping blogsite. The stink coming from that site is as obnoxious as a decaying whale size of a dump left rotting on an unflushed office toilet. Read it only with a virtual mask on.
But I for one could accept Paula now that Amy is completely out of the big picture.
Yes, my point exactly, Craic. If we are to solve the current parliamentary crisis caused by having a PM appointed by a small caucus of MPs, forum users should at least pay attention to spelling, first. Since FP is dropping the ball in this area, it's up to us to keep The Standard high!
What a crackup EZ can be sometimes !! Don't know how many "crises" he has seen in the last couple of years, manufacturing, Dotcom, Dirty Politics, ponytails, you name it. Now apparently a parliamentary crises as we go through the smoothest ever transition from one PM to another :-)
You know I can't resist a bit of rebuttal when the progressives/lefties finally get a bit of good news:). I'm probably not objective enough, but I don't see too much real organisational talent in behind the gap left by John Key's salesmanship. Was he really little better than a good salesman? Sounds like Joyce and English were the main architects behind (what is counted as) National's policies during the last three terms. In 2014, there were no new policies to speak of. National in cruise mode.
For your edification, FP, the small typos we picked up on were canon when you meant cannon, and liming when you meant timing. Only amusing because you were correcting us on our mistakes...cheers.
Suspect you may not have been there for a while. It is very strictly moderated. Though nobody is going to their grave wondering what Mr Slater's opinion is.
Since it is the most read NZ blog by a country mile I don't suppose they are too bothered if people prefer the ever diminishing mainstream media for their news.
I have just perused the Whale Oil blog and read the article and readers comments on the selection process to elect the Leader and Deputy of the National Party.
If even half of this is true than this is deeply disturbing for a governing party to be threatening Electorate and List MPs that their future selection/list rankings are in jeopardy should they not vote for Bill English and his preferred deputy candidate. Of even more concern is the allegation that appointed scrutineer would disclose errant voters to Bill English. I never realised he, and Hekia Parata were such admirers of Kim Jung Un.
I'll admit I'm stirring a bit, but the point is Norman Kirk tragically died in office. He didn't decide to break the contract to be NZ's PM for the full term. In the light of day, John Key did break the contract with voters, mostly for his own benefit. In the process he sabotaged National's chances in 2017. At the very least we're now seeing National scrabbling around for a deputy PM, the choice being another white male who appears ineffective and a bit of a poser, and Paula Bennett, who we all know is going to keep on making massive gaffes in public.
National and Labour are now more evenly matched. I'm not sure how hard Bill English listens to Crosby-Textor consultants, but his speeches are fairly boring too. Andrew Little has the excuse that he's warming up.
Oh I see. Its all fun and jolly as long as National is engaging in this.I am not so sure those National MPs thought it was so funny being threatened with non selection. But outrage if Labour or the Greens display such behaviour. Double standards me thinks FP. Yes the perfidiousness of some on the right never fails to astound.
That Key guy was pretty good
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11763876
EZ - you are accusing John Key of breaking a contract. Could you just clarify what contract (and which clause) you are talking about?
I am not aware of a contract saying that any candidate for public office is required to sit the job out to the glorious end. Whats more - if any such contract would exists, than I am wondering how the Labour party (who asks government politicians regularly to resign) could ask government officials to break a contract (your words). Is Labour regularly inciting contract breaches?
Obviously - you know exactly that John Key is just doing what every politician is entitled to. You are just envious that he is leaving on a High, while any Labour Leader I can remember left so far on a Low.
That 'porcine ignoramus' has the inside gen on what's happening sometimes. I suppose you used the same excuse to not read "Dirty Politics". Even though it was written by a skilled and honest writer. Judge Bennett?? Surely we should reserve such positions for people who have some real intellect? This is going to be highly amusing.
By the way, your liming mistake was here:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post647148
I'm very disturbed to find that the letter "l" is quite some distance on the qwerty keyboard from "t". If you are a two-finger typist like me, you have a problem.
Can I humbly suggest that in view of your probable age, eyesight restrictions and other factors, you should do as I do, and eschew mobile phones for anything other than emergency phone calls and occasional texts? Send us a picture of your ohone. It must be a new brand.
Audrey Young is generally fairly keen on helping along National's chances, she did it just before the 2014 election , in the Herald. She does start the recent article by saying that John Key had no vision and no legacy, but did well anyway. Somewhere in there she implied that John Key had a high EQ. Then why did he hound a café worker until she went public out of desperation? Surely those two things are mutually exclusive? Who to believe, huh?
It's an unwritten contract that is expected of the incumbent PM, that unless they do something terribly wrong, are deposed, pass away or are very ill, they are there for the rest of the term. John just up and left - while he was still well ahead in the polls, and with no really brilliant option for a new National leader or deputy. As recently as the start of this year, he was still keen. The opposition always calls for the incumbent to resign, that's normal, but no-one expects it to happen.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...aland-wants-me
2015: looking for a new leader, Bennett?
eZ being a supporter of the party with the big - Little problem, would obviously rather Key had announced the week before the general election that he was resigning. Mind you it wouldn't have mattered if Little was still leader. Thre risk is that they might have come to their senses and put Nash in.
If you can't spell his name, you haven't done much research before denigrating him. Nicky Hager is a forensic, technical, political writer with an MSc. You would also need to read his books before spouting off on something you don't want to know anything about. Some National staffers, National Party members and some MPs were crooked, they were found out in their emails, this followed on from general directions and advice given by Crosby-Textor, their strategy advisors for the last 12 years. There is no proof of that, it just lines up. They for certain knew what was going on, and they didn't stop it. Neither did John Key.
I do believe you're being disingenuous, elZorro.
Your point was that a small caucus of National party MPs appointed the PM, and that that was a bad thing.
My point was that after Mister Kirk died, a small caucus of Labour Party MPs appointed the PM.
I fail to see how one small caucus of MPs appointing a PM differs from another small caucus of MPs appointing a PM.
It will be interesting to see how far English/Bennett will go today with the new lineup. Obviously the housing portfolio will be needing a major shakeup with the new PM and Deputy being 2 of 3 housing Ministers currently. This should be a big one and Nick Smith probably gone.
McCully out replaced by Coleman ? Would that leave Health to Adams or maybe Collins ? Bridges taking over as no 3 from Brownlee and replacing Joyce at Economic Development ! Nikki Kaye into Education with Parata joining Key on the backbenches.
All pure speculation but I think and hope we will see quite a refreshed frontbench by nightfall.
Correct. New broom has to prove it can sweep I'd like to see Amy Adams take a big leap up,
then there's Chris Bishop. The trouble for English is who to leave out with so much talent available. I can think of another party that would struggle wondering who they could put in.
Probably a good time to give David Seymour a portfolio to strengthen their coalition partner, although he has previously declined the offer.
Someone will have a tough job following Key as minister of tourism. Amy Adams perhaps? Maggie Barry? Paul Goldsmith? No doubt eZ will help me out here.
I've seen John Key 'opening' a tourism venture, of course long after all the hard work had been done, and while his speech to a few onlookers was OK, the main reason for him being there was so the TV crew could bail him up outside and he could blather on about other issues of importance. I've no doubt that tourism is mostly fired along by the hard work of the business owners, it would be a feel-good portfolio that any minister would enjoy.
Bill English won't be moving into premier House at the moment. Wise choice, it would be a lot of upheaval to move from Karori and into another place for just a few months. It's almost an admission that he doesn't expect to win the next election. Is that another reason for John Key to step down - to at least give hardworking Bill a taste of being PM, even if he is normally unelectable?
In a gift that will keep on giving, Paula Bennett was up against Jack Tame again this morning on TV1, and you could see from her wide eyes that she was being careful with every word. Of course when tackled about poverty and what the govt is doing about it, her answer was that it's so very complex, what with all the intergenerational things like drugs, alcohol abuse etc.
It was nothing to do with well paid jobs, that's going perfectly OK?
National Party supporters should be ashamed of this govt.
Jack Tame does a good interview.
Other look like they are asking agreed questions - Jack puts them on the spot.
Oh dear, EZ, is this is the best you can offer? Mr. Little is not even capable to administer an effective opposition and you nag about that the new PM wants to stay in his family home ...? And you comment on Paula Bennett - for sure it is the populists of this world who have simple answers (which however never solve the problems). I am glad that Paula Bennett realises that solving poverty is a bit more complex than throwing money at poor people. There normally is a reason they are poor - and these reasons might be complex to resolve.
If anybody has a reason to be ashamed of, than it should be Labour and Green supporters about the inept opposition NZ had to endure already for the last eight years or so.
You're a sad sad man eZ. Spend a little time enjoying life instead of feeding your paranoia by turning every single action of the National party into some sort of crime scene or some other negative. There is absolutely no doubt that Key was widely admired internationally and has done more for tourism that any previous minister.
As for assuming English will not win the next election- I'm afraid you are wrong. He has no opposition.