if house prices fell by 50% nz would be in a depression , ill ask you if your enjoying that then
Printable View
Property prices heading south
From REINZ today
Across New Zealand, median prices for residential property increased 2.4% annually, from $820,000 in May 2021 to $840,000 in May 2022. Month-on-month, this represents a 4.0% decrease from $875,000 in April
blackpeter will laugh when I say that’s annualised 48% …so your 50% on track
Bit of shadenfreude from watching the last 5 years as the biggest risk takers and speculators made truckloads of money. For a humble value investor with some sort of risk management framework (how the F does a rental house stack up, how can anyone buy that tech stock at 30X revenue), this return to normality is pretty satisfying.
If you worry about the overleveraged investors emotional wellbeing that is big hearted.
No excuses for standing still here, wishing it wasnt happening, and focusing on those who are enjoying the ride down. None of that is the point.
Interest rates are going to climb (I expect 0.75 from the FED tomorrow), financial gravity is back and asset prices will fall across the board. Earnings are the next penny to drop. Lots of room to fall from here in housing and the unbuyable expensive shares on the NZE.
Im in mostly cash and waiting for early 2023 for some bargains
Indebted Eurozone countries will have to cope with increasing interest rates. Another Eurozone crisis to add to the mix? How long will they keep up Russian sanctions then? Will there be Ukaraine war fatigue in the West?
https://www.ft.com/content/fbb5149a-...2-aa88382f533f
Disagree. I have plenty of property holdings that will be worth a lot less if it happens (so not sure why you are saying I am displaying “greed” - my net wealth on paper will be significantly negatively impacted) - but it will create a far better environment for New Zealand if housing costs are half what they are now.
White House acknowledges that Americans are worried about inflation and stock prices ....That makes FED job more difficult ...as both cant be managed together ...but in todays world market sentiment is priced in instantaneously ...bonds at 3.5% US 10 year is already doing the job which FED intends to complete by next year ...as mortgages and other market user rates are determined by banks which depend on bond markets to set those ...means they already at TOP levels or even higher then what FED may finally do ...Inflation will take time to cool ...but wealth effect of high stocks and house prices is already almost gone ...Houses will keep falling for another year or so before flatlining for another ...Main point is rates are already doing their job for common man and even wealthy man . This will surely control inflation in due course ...Economy or growth will be collateral damage ...how severe is the only puzzle to be answered in time
Well here in wellington house prices are already off the highs by 20% from what i can see (handily the last round of council valuations were done at near the height of the market - and plenty of properties selling or being advertised for sale at 20% or more discount to their council valuation), and lets say they drop another 10-15% and then flatline, AND we continue having high inflation for another few years that compounds to a 20% increase - that effectively is near a 50% drop in housing prices. And all done without even a recession, let alone a depression.
You were agreeing with Beagles comment and desire for a 60-70% drop, my reference to Greed refers to some on here who are continually wanting prices to drop solely so they can buy cheaper and cheaper, they never seem satisfied with a certain level that is already cheap.