Great post as usual Mav. Really appreciate the time you put into this for our benefit.
Unfortunately, I really can't answer your question. Things are significantly different for small (often not for profit) rest homes like mine. Our organisation operates three facilities, with ours being the smallest - a standalone 32 bed rest home level home. Vastly different from the likes of OCA and others.
I don't have any inside knowledge of COVID related costs. From my perspective however, I don't believe there would have been many for the home I work in. I have yet to see any full PPE gear - we have been doing nothing different through-out COVID, other than wearing masks full-time, for a period of time. As all staff and the majority of residents are now double (or fully) vaccinated, we are no longer using masks for every day tasks. I do know we are soon to be fitted with the N95 masks, something that has not been done to date. To be honest I don't understand that. There will be stores onsite somewhere, of needed full PPE gear, should we get COVID in the home, but the overall cost of that wouldn't be huge.
No extra staffing costs either, except on a few occasions where a staff member has had a cold, and been required to get tested - and stay home until the test results are returned. They get paid for that time off, and someone else has to cover their shift, but I believe there is a government subsidy to help with that cost.
To be brutally honest, life with COVID has not been hugely different for us. Restricted access has pretty much been the only real disruption so far. Having said that, if a resident or residents gets COVID, our staffing costs will definitely increase. The plan (if you can even call it that) is to isolate infected residents in one section of the building, and have dedicated staff caring for them only. That means 3 staff to cover 3 round the clock shifts (or 2 staff working longer hours). If we have more than (say) 4-5 unwell residents, we would need two teams of 3. Given that we are already short staffed, I literally have no idea how we would make that work. Not forgetting that these COVID teams will need a break/day off at some point.
I guess what I'm saying is, increased staffing costs will be the biggest cost if we get COVID in the home. If by some miracle we don't, COVID related costs will remain minimal.
The situation in larger facilities will be very different. They will be taking things much more seriously than we are. They will already have detailed plans in place for how to manage an outbreak. Personally, I think they are already doing, and will continue to do, a vastly better job than we are. I believe they have also paid their staff "extra" as a show of goodwill and appreciation, which is not the case for us. I know where I'd rather be working if COVID gets in.
At the risk of further antagonising those here who resent the fact - aged care is a labour intensive sector. Even if you took away the care branch of OCA altogether, everything else still requires staff. Cleaners and housekeepers, cooks and kitchen hands, laundry staff, gardeners and grounds people, cafe and bar staff, admin and management .... there is more to "staffing costs" than just RNs and caregivers.