If the shareholders are revolting, who is buying?
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gap filled, i think. funny how they work sometimes.
Current people following this thread at the present time. I wonder who the 34 are. Hope 3 or 4 of them are board members.
(14 members and 34 guests)
Good opportunity for company to implement a part of their share buy back programme they've been contemplating for a while.
total carnage on this pup , shorts getting well rewarded
Maybe the CEO will buy back her shares at $9.00 and make a pretty penny.
The Depth screen at the moment is showing a buyer at $1.16.
See weed will be ecstatic.
Maybe $8 tomorrow and heading South?
Attachment 10055
I saw someone mention $7.50. That seems pretty realistic. I’ll top up more then.
- bought at 13.25 and holding...
Wonder how far down it goes before instos etc will start buying in or even a take over offer from a Chinese company. Good buying opp. at next turn. Where next turn?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVmywa9K6C8 Not a beagle and my carnage is limited to ATM's effect on Synlait but unlike this dog I am not loving it.
Wonder if that dog feels like he knows about herdlicker :lol:
Ouchhh..is all I can say...
Nestle set to launch A2 formula in New Zealand and Australia
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12140866
Perfect timing on a massive down day. Ruthless
the A2 sourced from all places that except NZ. it makes perfect senses.......
Yeah they can have my SML for that too mate. Aussie close was equal to ~ $9.11 Kiwi and they had more time to absorb the Nestle announcement and its impact on the milk twins here, (if any).
Volume was many times N.Z. market too. SML also closed at the same level in Aust.
Thanks for posting Baa Baa.... bad news end to a tough day for holders.
That said, the move is not entirely negative as IMO it adds credibility to A2's claims and expands the total market. For example, although Nestle has launched in China, ATM's share of that market has still grown from around 4% to just over 5% - if the latest reports are true.
In addition, the pricing of the Nestle offering will be interesting and it could erode some margins.
Hold on tight - more uncertainty tomorrow.
Decent rally off the lows into the ASX close. But not convincing, probably just short covering. Who knows, but wouldn't it be fascinating if Nestle were positioning for a takeover. As A2M is well past it's 61.8% fib retrace, it does bring into play a distressed SP and corresponding Cap with hurting shareholders who may be open to an exit at some price point above market. Intriguing. With DOW looking like a follow on tomorrow, Markets could be rattled and open opportunities not previously thought about. The good thing about TA is not being involved in market or specific SP routs, moreover focusing on when it's time to re-engage.
Dow futures pared their losses and now indicating down just 164 points. Gotta say I prefer Synlait at these level's for its clearly articulated and well defined growth path, more differentiated product mix and far more realistic forward PE of just 17.7 (average analyst forecast for FY19 is 51.5 cps) based on today's close of $9.10. They also own the approvals under which ATM distribute product in China and have the hardware with lots more coming on stream. Maybe Nestle makes a move on both ?
I think if Synlait get one more big king hit down I might be compelled to take a long term view and put my hand up for more, after all ATM paid ~ 20% more than today's closing price for its last 8% stake acquisition in Synlait acquired at $10.90 so with SML there's even more odds of a takeover.
Just last week morning star said “accumulate” with a fair value rating of $14.60.. Gulp..
See weed........ more buying opportunity for you today.
You could pick up plenty more shares at bargain basement prices.
Anybody else buying today?
US markets all down, i think a2 is in for another hammering today. Hardly any buyers to sell to at the mo. Going down another 5%???
Down over $3 since posting this less than 3 weeks ago ... maybe this wasn't so "this time is different" after all
Now up just single digits for the year... what was NZX's best performer is fast turning into barely any performance at all.
Good to see it is being valued a bit more fairly now rather than the lofty mid teens, they'll still milk it long term.
Oh look. ATM and SML back to parity at $8.76 each
people are waiting for positive news in AGM but what could that be? ATM will blame the market.... the cap is looking at 5B.
now up 46c looks like balance is correct shorters covering their positions or perhaps something else........
OMG.. It is green on NZX at the open on ASX.
Still holding...... holding for concrete news rather than emotions.
(ATM 60% of my portfolio, so my 'unrealised gains' have taken a hit, but overall I'm still in the green.:t_up: and have been sneakily buying into your OCA theories. Well positioned?? Time will tell.)
A2 still has a great future ahead of it despite the shenanigans of late, I love that portfolio %.PS-OCA will give you an excellent return over the next few years although it won't be anywhere near as exhilarating as A2 has been just slow and steady with a divvy to boot.
What sort of patents right does ATM have? I thought just the testing part. Nestle got the A2 label everywhere, A2 should be a registered trademark and covered by patents, isn't it?
hopefully its not a bear market trap
I've just started seeing A2 Milk ads on the television in NZ. I just wonder if they are going about it all wrong. It feels like they are advertising it like Coke: a lifestyle, and an emotion. However I feel like they need to be running educational ads rather than brand ads.
I'm probably not their target market, but I feel like most uneducated consumers wouldn't be any wiser about what A2 milk is after seeing the ad.
Makes me wonder if they have any idea what they are doing or if I'm the one out of touch. They have been growing sales well so evidence suggests they know what they are doing.
I think this is the ad here: https://player.vimeo.com/video/292239215
It is for Anchor milk not ATM not that it makes much difference it,s still getting the product off the shelf.
Anchor are still using the ATM catch phrase " Feel the difference" so it looks like a joint marketing ad,would be interesting to find out if ATM contributed.
https://thea2milkcompany.com/about-us/
The skeptic in me thinks we live in "post fact" times because how else can one explain the anti-vaxxers? The only thing matters is how things feel rather than why things are. They follow ideals and "influencers" throwing bite-sized enter- and infotainment through their devices at them.
A2 probably knows they won't win the scientific battle so they go for the "feel good" and "only the best for my baby" factor. I don't have a problem with that.
Like the new Ad. The tagline on the bottle "feel the difference" says it all.
You can't explain the science in 20 sec and you shouldn't anyway.
ATM"s success is all about emotion & lifestyle. Trust, safety, health for your family.
And on the negative, a mistrust of big food companies.
Thanks for sharing this ad. Nice to see progress in NZ.
FWIW In my past life I was heavily involved with Milk promotion and advertising and I can assure you that all the research then and now supports milk advertising based more on feelings/emotions than facts.
Think of the emotions around mothers milk and that is what most effectively sells milk via TV.
Pictures of cows (put people off) and loads of facts about how good it is for you are much less effective and best left to magazine articles and the internet (where there is heaps of info' on the health benefits of A2.)
I agree, a forgettable waste of money. A2 milk has a real point of difference, health benefits which makes it stand out from it's competitors & justifies it's higher price. Why else pay a premium for it? I've seen so many half baked ideas from Ad agency creative types, (who've never had their own money on the line) selling the emotion, the feeling, general branding which needs acres of money spent on advertising to move product. There's no cut through, nothing memorable or informative or offering any benefits or point of difference about that. In fact I saw the ad on TV last night & didn't even register it as being for A2 milk. Pardon the rant :)
Ha, no but that ad production would have cost a small fortune & since you ask what I would have done is approached a highly trusted, recognisable, newish mother like Toni Street or Valerie Adams to front a campaign explaining the important health benefits which differentiate A2 milk from it's cheap competitors. Of course the first thing someone will say is they might not be avail, but that's the general idea.
A well liked & trusted personality with the right fit provides instant cut through to the clutter of general branding ads on TV. Plus A2 has a real & significant point of difference to it's competitors, so why not use it?
I know shareholders know the difference because we have equity in the brand, but to the average hurried shopper grabbing some milk off the shelf on the way home, it's just another milk brand which at the expensive end of the range & as everybody knows "they're all the same aren't they?" :)
One of the often unstated goals of general branding campaigns (apart from slowly building brand awareness) is to make staff & shareholders feel positive about the company & that's just what this feels like. That's nice but it doesn't have much effect on sales. At this stage I believe A2 should be going all out trying to get potential new customers to make a switch to A2 from their usual brand & for that to happen, & pay a much dearer price, they need to 1) grab their attention & 2) be given a good reason.
The Brand Manager and maybe the Marketing Manager will be wetting themselves after getting this warm fuzzy ad off the ground ....the best ad the world’s ever seen in their eyes. Give marketing too much money and this is what you get and a poor return on investment (except the agency (Colenso BBDO?) does more than OK from it). If they are lucky they might even mentioned in some ad magazines or win an award to give them even more warm fuzzies.
The campaign Anchor did last year to target teenagers and why milk was good for you was pretty cool. Have you seen these? They probably interested the targeted market and sold milk.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WJfNqGkqrZs
https://vimeo.com/211257133
https://vimeo.com/211256359
Yes these are brilliant, very clever & cool ads which stand out from the clutter, speak directly to target market & explain health benefits of milk. Hit all the right notes for that tricky to reach teenage market. Harry Baker of course a very cool celeb poet & TED Talk speaker, loads of credibility & highly recognisable to that specific target market, youngest person to win the London, UK & World Slam Poetry competitions.
strange eh. I don't watch ads but if I see one it has to grab me in a few seconds. I thought those ads were crap. long winded ( so no good for paid advertising), blah blah blah saying lots but very little. May be great for the youth demographic (I thought they had a shorter attention span than mine) but that's not Atm's market. It's the sore gut and babies not the shiny teeth (and some of those folks were not that flash) demographic.
At the time of that post, it was very clear to me, having reading this thread for a while, that nearly everyone posting in it was making emotional decisions on their holding in ATM. What has occurred since is a shame, but I did try.
I could offer alternatives but what does that have to do with the point that ATM was heavily overpriced? Literally anything other than holding ATM at $13 would of been a starting point.
I think it's a perfectly fine ad, but only if the viewer already knows what A2 milk is. If mums are already talking about it with other mums then this ad works.
But to a naive viewer who has never heard of A2, it's basically just an ad for milk.
At least that's how I see it.
Cos There is no difference in taste. Look for PR articles discussing ‘digestives upsets’ which is the target market for A2 and that is where people will be asked to ‘feel the difference’.
You wont "feel the difference" unless your gastrointestinal system is affected by the A1 proteins - something reported by many Chinese and Asians. And you're not (presumably) a new Mum, or mum-to-be, worried about the health of your child who you don't want to be lactose intolerant.
"In conclusion, this study showed that consumption of milk containing A2 β-casein attenuated the acute gastrointestinal symptoms following milk intake relative to conventional milk containing A1 and A2 β-casein in Chinese subjects with self-reported lactose intolerance. Gastrointestinal symptoms after consuming milk containing A2 β-casein were consistently reduced in both lactose absorbers and lactose malabsorbers. These findings suggest that, in some individuals with self-reported lactose intolerance, the adverse gastrointestinal symptoms following milk intake might be related to the presence of A1 β-casein in milk rather than lactose itself." (read more here https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5657040/)
All marketing involves various degree's of creative license mm. Take Mercedes-Benz as a classic example "The Best or Nothing" Many would argue they are in no way the best and of course there's a wide range of alternatives. They're simply appealing to a certain demographic who have a need for their ego to be stroked along similar lines to ATM that are appealing to those that have a digestion problem or their babies do, or think they might have one.
I reckon that advert is aimed at the "moneyed" demographic. Its simply about brand awareness. So when the Fendalton / Remuera Mum pops down to her local New World, wanders past the Brie and Camembert to the milk and sees this A2 bottle she'll pick it up because she recognises the brand.
I also see thsi asa "laying the foundation" type advert.
Next up I reckon we will see more media releases about the scientific research results which will show how bad A1 is for you and how A2 is a much healthier option - especially if you are "worried" about your health(that is you do a lot of self -diagnosis) and have money.
In NZ the target market is the Worried Wealthy. Nothing more, nothing less.
But much more importantly we have ATM and SML racing out of the blocks today. ATM up 5.2% and SML up 3.1.
I hope everyone took advantage of the bargain basement prices last week!
EDIT. Well, we started the day well until those Ozzies woke up.
There's an old saying in advertising........ "Good advertising sells the 'sizzle' - not the sausage"
ATM are selling the 'feeling' not the milk.
My tummy feels the difference.
Agree 100%. Good marketing works on brand building and looks to enhance the brand in the customers eyes. A good example - BMW "The Ultimate Driving Machine"
Yes I topped up SML at a very distressed price late last week and am definitely "feeling the difference" today :)
I think we are all aware that the ATM SP is being dictated by the ASX.
When I look at both TA's I see the SP poised...... poised to continue back to its trend above the MA200..... or poised to fall further below the MA200. It all depends on the next update IMO.
Shorter's glow in the CEO's sell-down error and possible negative China market reform. On the contrary side there is anecdotal evidence that A2 is doing v well in China and it's market share is increasing plus anecdotal evidence that IF exports from Lyttelton have increased 40% over prior periods so far FY19. Who will be right?
I'm not predicting..... I'm just waiting. It's not exactly time for the faint hearted or 'new investors' to be investing in ATM IMO.
reminds me a bit of Oceania gold when it was on the NZX now that was a wild ride,but at the end of the day you knew the SP would bounce in your favour eventually, after all you were dealing with gold.As for A2 milk yes you got it liquid gold!
84c price spread, don't ya just love that volatility.Lol