In about a month's time we will be able to tell with more certainty what the potential season kiwifruit crop will look like numbers wise.
So best to wait before calling the bottom on the current share price.
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In about a month's time we will be able to tell with more certainty what the potential season kiwifruit crop will look like numbers wise.
So best to wait before calling the bottom on the current share price.
The kiwifruit Industry was hoping that the weather God's would lend a helping hand.
The latest weather predictions for the summer with a strong El nino is not ideal.
Hot dry weather on the East Coast will mean a smaller fruit profile (size). So the industry prediction of a 'wall' of fruit' may not eventuate this coming season.
Actually - if you go back in Seekas annual reports, you might notice that FY2016 (i.e. the year in which the 2015/2016 El Nino played out) was a bumper year with EPS (62 cts/share for FY2016) more than twice the normal average (27 cents in 10 year average).
Time to buy some more Seeka?
I'm looking at it from the grower angle. Smaller size means less efficiency from harvesting costs through to packing charges etc. That is, more fruit is required to fill up a box.
Remember, Seeka offered their growers a fixed price packing charge contract. So there is little wiggle room for any slippages.
I hope that I'm completely wrong and that the predicted weather does not eventuate.
The Industry is automated now. So Seeka will have plenty of record breaking seasons to come. I'm personally worried with how the extreme weather pattern forecasts will play out.. Seeka and their growers need a few things to go their way.
The exchange rate trend will definitely help.
yep the extreme would be the current growing regions not being suitable anymore