The basis behind my prognosis is quite simple. SCF came out with their take on the half year result in March, the auditors then added about $40 million to that loss before the accounts were finally signed off for audit. Clearly SCF were fighting tooth and nail to keep the write-downs as at 31 December 2009 to the lowest possible level.Quote:
BTW I like Chalkie's style ... but he really needs to look at a bigger picture as to the dynamics of what is happening in SCF.
Roger ... you repeat your "asset impairment" story ... but you have never justified or quantified this in terms of what is known. Repeating this, constantly, does not make it reliable information.
/Disclosure: Perfectly happy as a SCFHA pref holder
I work with small businessmen everyday and know full well that its a real battle out there, especially if one has high gearing, (which I think if one is borrowing from SCF its a fair analysis to say there's a greater liklihood than not, that one has a higher than average gearing level).
The economy has been very tough since 31 December and talk of a "so called" recovery has been exactly that, just talk from where I see things.
You're saying all deliquent and impaired receiveable skeletons are out of the closet and there's no new ones since 31 December 2009 and I firmly believe that is extremly unlikely to be a realistic assessment of the situation ..its as simple as that, which is why you hold the pref shares and I wouldn't buy at even 10 cents. I think if all receiveables assets were marked to market, SCF is bankrupt.
The $114m advance to Southbury is secured over what ? The net value of AH's investment in SCF ? Company lending to itself, where have we seen that before. Like I said some time ago, in 30 years of accounting I've never seen anything as "wildly creative" as SCF's financial statements.
The GFC has brutally exposed AH's love of high leverage and the house of creative accounting is about to fall.