Really surprised you did not add ‘and they can have it all by buying Sky’. :t_up:
Printable View
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...2F62N5WIBZVU4/
When you pause and reflect again on the fundamentals of Sky - they really do have it all. Linear, free to air, streaming...
Everything Discovery wants.
You would think Sky would be more valuable to the market than it is.
But management have been unable to exploit these advantages to maximum shareholder benefit so far.
They just need to be clearer about their intention to reinstate a divvy in Feb.
Pay 8.5c every 6 months, total of $30M payout which would probably represent 60%-70% of FCF.
$30M with a high yield of 7% would imply a market cap of $430M ($2.45/share). If the expected yield is lower and/or divvys are expected to increase over time then the market cap could go higher still.
It really isn't rocket science.
I think youre right on this one. The board has said repeatedly that they think the market is “materially” undervaluing SKT. Its been 18 months and she aint moving, so i dont rellay care what they think its worth.
They’ll protest that theyve all bought in recently which shows that they are putting their money where the mouth is. In reality they all bought in when they thought osmium were going to keep pushing the price up.
I think $2.30 is where its at. Whats our best guess on the big boys average cost?
Nah I’m calling bullsh1t. Divvy coming.
It just better ok!
They have no master plan to merge with anyone. And even if they did it would not be contingent on selling the campus.
They will do a divvy…but they are just being excessively cautious and not stating one will be paid JUST INCASE something changes adversely between now and Feb.
And the big boys like PK don’t want a takeover.
They see the SP going up way high after buybacks/divvy.
I’ll call my mate John Malone. He can offer cash or shares in Discovery, so those that want to can participate in the future Discovery/WB behemoth
I doubt he would offer us a good deal, but it would be done
Comcast on the other hand would probably offer the same multiple as they did for Sky UK! (Not really, Roberts isn’t a complete potato)
I tend to agree with you that various deals are being worked out in the background - matter of getting the property deal done first & everything will fall into place fast after that.
Shareholders will wake up one morning and find it’s all happening.
Any day now imo.
$2.50 to $2.75 is my pick of where SKT settles at when all the deals are done.
CEO did not buy on market at $1.80 for a 10% upside - that’s for sure!
Putting my money where my mouth is. :scared:
It's been about a year since I bought into this lame dull dog hoping for dividends or buy backs. I'm giving it a few more months then I will probably escape. Just makes no sense that after all this time our debt free, cash flow positive business, has not returned a cent to us. What is their reasoning? Would it really be so terrible to have some debt? They could have taken debt against the property to pump some life into the share price with divi/buybacks, then when it finally sells in 2033 for half what we all expect they can pay the debt back. Put me out of my misery.
Well that blackcaps game I just finished watching was the best thing I have seen in a long time. I really hope Sky holds on to the ICC cricket events - All the best Blackcaps moments happen at these events - Spark must be livid.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/232415
Write up on Discovery.
Looks like the big announcement next year will be to introduce Discovery Plus.
I suspect that Bowman has gone back to the UK because he has completed his mission (whatever it was) and the deal has been done. There is no reason to stay. We just have to wait for the announcement.
Well, if his mission was to destroy the wealth of Sky shareholders and reduce transparency they yes - he smashed it out of the park and can enjoy a well earned cold beer in his favourite English pub.
But in reality I think he had enough of lockdowns, has the means to live wherever he wants and took the oportunity to head back to Europe.
If I had to make a prediction, I do think he will resign soon - by the Feb results. They still need to get this property deal done, so Bowman will need to sign off on that first (which he can now do with an e-Signature).
But after that is done, I think he will sling his hook. There are now two Directors living offshore, and one is the Chairman. It is just not realistic that Bowman is going to be able to fulfil his role and obligations half a world away.
He has proven to be an obstacle to mergers and takeovers. So once he leaves then, depending who replaces him, we may see a shift in position/approach.
With a little luck these guys have done the capital return and reinstated a dividend by then. Clearly a stronger SP will give shareholders a better chance of getting a good M&A type deal in the future.
From here I think we just sit tight and see how things unfold. We are right to be very upset with Bowman and the overall lack of disclosure...but we can all chill for now.
The warning shots have been fired, I do belive Sky have taken notice - let's see what they do from here.
Article on NBR today about 2Degrees and Orcon/Vocus in exclusive merger discussions.... Did we know that??
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...PNRRFZBIW7CY4/
"2degrees' adjusted ebitda for the three months to September 30 edged up by US$1 million to US$30.6m - a 3 per cent gain on the year-ago quarter as gains in broadband and business mobile offset lower consumer growth amid lockdowns"
So EBITDA is ~NZ$43M.
Their stay in business CAPEX would be around that are more. Think of all those cellular towers...
So this business really makes no money yet will get around NZ$1.5B if media reports are correct.
Sky earns a lot more money but would be lucky to get NZ$0.5B in a sale.
It just boggles the mind. This is what makes it hard to get a merger done on reasonable terms to SKT shareholders while the SP is in the toilet.
They need to get a move on with selling the property and reimplementing the dividend to shift this around.
Sky needs to be a dividend paying stock to get interest back in. It really is that simple.
And it is baffling that they still seem to brag about the clean balance sheet courtest of the dillutory CR.
Well, the market does not seem to think very much about Sky being 'debt free' - if they were hoping the SP would rocket once we removed all debt because the market would have confidence in Sky's ability to operate as a Going Concern then they were sorely mistaken.
So we have had to pay for Broadband and the STB entirely from Operating cashflows. The total cost of both projects is probably in the $30M-$40M range.
Why in God's name would we not just borrow that money in this low interest environment and keep some form of divvy going?
Or borrow half and pay the other half from cashflow if you still want to be conservative/cautious?
An eventual entry into mobile will probably be another $15M there.
So all in for Broadband, STB and Mobile probably costs around $50M.
I would have been very comfortable borrowing $50M. But even if they were nervous Nellies about that they could borrow a modest $30M and top up the remaining $20M from cashfow over time...still would have left plenty of cash to distribute to shareholders.
The conservtive approach is not working Sky! You need to be more aggressive, get these intiatives delivered faster and for Christ's sake borrow some money!
Ironically, the delay in sale of the property could have worked very well in SKT's favor.
Development land prices in Auckland have gone berserk since the joint announcement by Labour & National about further intensification & housing density rules for the main centres.
Like I wrote before, it's a matter of time - not if but when the property deal is done.
Then, everything being worked on in the background will happen in a rush.
Sp is where it is because the sp momentum has faltered and the traders are bailing out - not because the deals being worked on have dissipated.
Ok now you are just turning me on.
So you are saying why get dividends that would almost certainly lift the SP (the milk?) when Sky should just not pay me that and I get a...what? takeover instead? (the cow??)
I don't really get the cow though do I because after a one-off pay day for my shares I don't own the cow anymore...
I was talking to some Sky employees little while back. They had mixed reviews about Martin. A lot of them had the view that Martin was only really at Sky to have a good holiday in NZ.
Also how the hell is Sophie running Sky from Nelson? Isn't that where Aucklanders go to retire? I wonder if she harps on about carbon emissions, corporate responsibility and other nice sounding things. That would be the biggest joke when you are flying into work i would assume couple of times a week.
We need people like Russel Creedy at Sky. He made selling fast food profitable. He made a turd into a diamond. Enough with this BS nice sounding things. Leave that to Jacinda. We need tangible results. Do a buyback, reinstate dividends, line up some buyers, do road shows in Singapore, Hong Kong, London and New York... We don't care if you learnt a new Te Reo word.
With NPAT of between $40-50m, no debt and property sale proceeds of around another $50m, I think even this Board could not justify a continuation of the no dividend policy. I understand the need to build a war chest to ensure they can continue to hold onto the rugby, expand content etc, but even allowing for all of that there's plenty in the coffers to finally start giving a return back to long suffering shareholders. There will be a revolt if they don't and the SP will continue to slide. Conversely the SP will strengthen back to $2.20-$2.30 as soon as they announce a return to regular dividends and perhaps a special dividend. It's a no-brainer, which is just as well as the Board seem to be operating without one at the moment.;)
The milk may (or may not) lift the sp while the cow is definitely worth a lot more when it is involved in M&A.
I can recall SKT being one of my best performing stocks when it was burning through cash building up subscriber numbers and not paying a single cent of dividend.
It's all about the squeeze.
Yes, but don't forget they had an opening offer of $2.30 in June.
So to deliver value to sharehoders now they actually need to implement policies (return of capital from campus sale and divvy) that get the SP above $2.30.
Anything at or below that and we would have been better off negotiating with PE. Almost certainly would have gotten them to raise their bid to $2.50+.
That offer has been and gone. Most of us would be happy to establish a new floor around $2.20-$2.30. But you're right that the business is worth $2.50 plus, even perhaps as much as $3.00 long term. It just needs a board that can inspire investor confidence that they are acting in shareholders best interests. They've cleaned the balance sheet, consolidated shares, reduced head count, got content deals wrapped up for next couple of years. Now the focus needs to be on getting the SP up where it belongs. The property deal is crucial to release funds. After that it should be plain sailing even with this ship of fools.
I think Mistatea should be the CEO and you should be the chairman. Moloney and Bowman out. It feels like as shareholders we are stuck in Soweto while the management gets to enjoy life in Sandton.
Gimme hope Mistatea
Hope Mistatea
Gimme hope Mistatea
'Fore the takeover to come
I would want to be Chairman & CEO like at Berkshire Hathaway.
I could turn Sky into a $500M business in short order:
- Wrap up property sale. $50m capital return - Cancel 25M shares and pay each shareholder $2/share for each forfeit share. Essentially a one-off tax free divvy for shareholders that allows us to further reduce s/o to ~150M.
- Leverage the Balance Sheet for new initiatives like Sky Mobile as well as remaining costs to launch the new STB. $20M-$25M should do it very comfortably.
- Reintroduce a sustainable dividend. Probably start with $30M (split $15M every 6 months). A 6% yield would push the market cap to $500M ($3.33/share based on 150M s/o post capital return). Plenty of room to grow this divvy over time.
Then aggressively pursue merger opportunities.
You don't need to be a genius.
These guys have had plenty of room over the last 2 years to try it their way...and they have failed to turn around the market perception.
Time for a change in the way of thinking. That is going to require some changes at Board level.
Absolutely no way should a business as cashflow positive as Sky be trading between $300-$320M market cap.
They keep touting this untapped $200M banking facility as a badge of honour.
F*ck that sh1t! Refusing to borrow ANY money is destroying shareholder value.
They need a bloody good rev up this lot.
Way, way, wayyyyyyy too conservative and slow.
The drawdown will drop but not vanish.
I am sure sky can still borrow the amount needed for the projects post campus sale.
Not suggesting they should borrow up to the eyeballs.
But they should borrow some. We have already paid for broadband. We have paid the majority of the cost of the STB by now as they enter the final stages of testing.
We could probably borrow around $20M or so to over the rest of the STB costs and launch Sky Mobile next year.
That probably leaves the $35M cash in the bank should we need it.
Since the FY results were released, I estimate we are generating FCF of at between $40M-$50M a year ($3M-$4M a month). So every 6 months we probably produce $20M FCF. We could pay out $15M every 6 months for a 75% FCF payout ratio.
So by Feb we could pay a $15M HY dividend, still have $35M cash in the bank and $20M of borrowings to fund growth projects.
Still in an amazing financial position and payong a dividend which NZ shareholders love.
A takeover or merger would be the best outcome of all, but realistically I can't see it happening anytime soon. In the meantime there's a lot this Board can do right now to make the company more attractive to investors. They are at the helm of a company that has profits of $40-50m a year and they will soon be flush with funds and no debt. Are we really saying that without a takeover, this company has no future? All the metrics say otherwise. The SP shouldn't be where it is - it is a reflection of market sentiment that says it has no faith in the Board to make any sort of return to shareholders. If they demonstrated that intent by way of even a modest return to dividends I do believe that the market will see that as a major turning point in SKY becoming a reliable investment again, rather than the coin toss it is at the moment.
LOL, appreciate the temptation to fit everything into the "only way is a takeover" idea.
But...it just is not true.
Sky could easily borrow $20M even after the campus sale and pay the $1.2M interest. They could negotiate a longer borrowing term etc.
And the notion that 'borrowing to pay dividends is just stupid' is LOL. That means that all businesses with high market caps that pay dividends and have debt are stupid.
Just not the case. A business like Sky does not want to borrow to the point that we are over our heads as I stated before...but we don't need to go to the other end of the spectrum where any debt it seen as bad.
We need to be more aggressive than that.
Sky have earnings per share of something like 27c. What business can't pay a dividend with that sort of income? And what does it say about the Boards confidence in either themselves or the business or both, that they still don't feel they can pay even 10 cents a share.
Sophie just needs to have a korero with the Board about resuming dividends to get the SP back up so that she has more options moving forward.
Sky have 35m in cash plus another 50m or coming from the property sale. That's plenty to invest and grow the business. Dividends can, and should, be paid out of NPAT which at 10c per share would only be 17.5m per year from an expected profit in 2022 of around 30m. Do-able. Easily.
Only a couple of months ago SP was 2.15 from investor (Osmium) interest and a buzz surrounding the consolidation. Part of that interest and buzz was that Sky had seemed to have turned the corner, and was an investable company again. Imagine if they had declared a return to dividend not long after! You would have seen SP approaching 2.30 which you say you would take if that was a takeover offer. Point being you don't need to pray for the cavalry to come, to get the sort of price you would take. There's no volume at the moment because the Board aren't offering anything - they have gone back in their shells, but it wouldn't take much (a 10c dividend) to light the fuse again.
Dividends make the world go round.
In New Zealand.
Checking in here after a week or so away
Anything exciting happened…have I missed anything important.
Share price trending dowm I notice
FY22 EBITDA guidance = $122.5M mid range.
CAPEX will be $55M mid range ($15M stay in business, $15M 'Enhance' initiatives' and $25M 'Growth').
I advocate that the $25M Growth projects (which will be things like Sky Mobile) should be funded through borrowing to maximise shareholder returns.
If so, then only $30M CAPEX need come from Operating cashflow.
$122.5M EBITDA - $30M CAPEX - $20M tax - $30M lease costs = $42.5M FCF.
An 85% payout ratio would be ~$36M ($18M payment every 6 months).
If they have reduced the s/o to 150M after returning proceeds from the property sale to shareholders tax free then this would be a total dividend of 24c/year over two instalments.
24c total dividend at a high yield of 8% would still be ~$3/share.
And Sky would still have ~$40M cash in the bank for a rainy day ($6M left over FCF + $35M cash already in the bank).
I repeat...it really is not rocket science. This is what BlackCrane are waiting to get to.
Revenue and GAAP earnings are expected to grow from FY23...so the payout amount should be sustainable if not grow.
If Bowman and co can give the market more certainty around dividends, and implement one by Feb (after the capital return), start using some debt to finance growth initiatives...and can get the SP well above the $2.50/share offer we would have likely ended on with PE then fantastic. He can hold his head up high again and he will have some very happy shareholders.
Broadband and the new SKyBox will eat up a lot of cashflow in the coming year. Both require large upfront costs for Sky, which are recouped over the long term by monthly customer installments. Both initiatives won’t be cashflow positive for a couple of years at least, especially if they are successfully growing like we want them too.
If sky got into mobile it could be even worse of a cashflow suck depending on the business model. They definitely don’t have the billions required to install a national network and obtain the necessary spectrums, so only way they could do it is by partnering with an existing network (Spark/VodaFone/2Degrees) - which means operating as a low margin reseller - either as an MVNO with its own sky branding, or more simply just bundling one of the networks mobile offerings and skimming a percentage (which probably is the best option).
Operating as a low margin reseller, when you already have a fixed cost base can actually be cashflow accretive... I think their secret sauce would be adding mobile AND power and being the one stop utility shop.
Theyve got a massive audience they can market these bundles too. And then they are a much more attractive acquisition target.
My issue is that this is the best way forward for SKY, but I just doubt we have the team to execute this. They cant even sell a property in the Middle of a hot market in Auckland?
Anyone else feel me on this?
i agree the reseller/bundler is definitley the best approach for mobile. Would be open to them doing the same with power as well.
Actually your mention of its audience/customer base I think is one place they haven’t promoted at all well to investors. SkyBox customers i suspect are a rather high discretionary spending audience. It’s perhaps the only good thing as a result of the “cord-cutter” curse - the customers you do have left may well be described as on average wealthier as they don’t feel the need to “cut the cord” (cancel a high cost pay tv subscription) to save money.
The one mention in the investor day presentation is the slide below, which mentions “high income”. But it then goes on to talk about the need to diversify the audience in order to grow - when an alternate (and perhaps parallel) strategy not mentioned would be to massively milk the existing “high income” customer base for all you can with ancillary services. Now perhaps this is actually the underlying strategy (as broadband launch makes clear) but I get the impression they are a bit embarrassed to say it loud and proud that they have a rich customer base and are going to try and generate as much money as possible from them.
Attachment 13209
Just trying to think, aside from Mobile & Power, what other 3rd party services could sky bundle to rich not-that-tech-savvy customer base that they could skim a commission on?
Spitballing here, feel free to add your own ideas:
- Broadband obviously a key example, but also the new skybox which will enable an easier commission for 3rd party services (like the current disney+ deal)
- The already discussed Mobile & Power
- I’ll include the SkyGlass TV here for MistaTeas benefit, which fits with this strategy I now admit, but is a hefty upfront cashflow suck.
- data backup and virus protection as a broadband add-on
- Sports betting and/or fantasy sport competitions
- Insurance products
- Branded credit card with “Sky rewards”
- Domestic Travel bookings (“make sure your stay has SkyTV!”)
- a “buyers club” discounted deals
- ???
Sure, but the bulk of that upfront cost has already been incurred and paid for. For Broadband there would have been a chunk of cash spent on upgrading their CRM system to onboard and maintain customer accounts. Integrate with Vocus NZ etc.
The costs of new staff to service broadband as well as sending out modems etc comes out of the margin. So the first year margin is non existent and then starts to pay its way after the first year probably (assuming we hold onto the customer).
The STB needs more spend, but a good chunk of the CAPEX spend on that has already happened.
And don't forget...with my projections I am working back from EBITDA and using the total CAPEX figures they have provided in their guidance.
So all of the spend on broadband and the new STB are taken into account with those numbers.
We should absolutely get a payout of $60M next year after they do a capital return or share buyback.
And with regards to Sky Mobile...nothing announced yet but I think it is a natural progression for Sky and is inevitable. Obviously we would not build our own mobile network - we would get a wholesale deal with Spark, Vodafone or 2D.
We probably only need around $15M for an initative like that to get the CRM tools etc ready to rock and roll for those customers.
They project a total spend of $25M for all growth initatives (of which Sky Mobile could be one of those initatives). I say negotiate reasonable lending terms with the banks and borrow that money.
Time to put the foot on the gas for things that are going to raise the market cap of Sky. That has to be a CR/buyback followed by a generous dividend policy.
Get wholesale deals with:
- NETFLIX
- AMAZON (Prime plus Kindle)
- YOUTUBE
- Spotify
That way we can offer the popular 3rd Party services for cheaper if they add them as part of a Sky bundle.
Sky's revenues (and then eventually bottom line earnings) could absolutely Sky rocket if they are successful in their plan to become the ultimate aggregator.
I am looking forward to my tax free capital return next year of $2/share ($50M property sale). I should get $78.5K.
Then in Feb distribute the first $30M of the $60M dividend. S/o will have been reduced to 150M...so that is 20c/share.
That will be another $47K for me before tax. I think they have a bunch of imputation credits they need to use, so my tax liability shouldn't be too bad.
So between now and March (divvy pay day), Sky should distribute $125.7K to me in total.
And then there will be a large capital appreciation to for my shares.
All they need to do is borrow a modest amount of money and execute the mistaTea plan and we can all get paid and move forward as happier shareholders.
Who's with me?!
Get rid of Work and Television
SKYNET
Attachment 13210
https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/vodafone...fratil-s-boyes
This article is about Vodafone releasing capital by selling its mobile towers and moving to a shared infrastructure model...
Yet half the article talks about dividends.
That is what kiwis want. A steady stream of dividends...
Sorry team I am now SKY gone. It has been a wild ride this one and managed to save my self by DCA and the recent SP rise. I am sure something is a cooking but I can no longer it. The final straw for me was the Pooman. He has to go!
Selling schmelling! I am still BUYING!
Don't let Pooman scare you off.
He will resign soon enough.
The Big instos are the ones who will utimately determine what happens with Sky.
And they will want the capital return and dividend. They will also be wondering why we have zero debt and are trying to fund all projects from operating cashflow.
And they also know that once the divvys return, Sky will double if not triple in value. Especially if they start financing some of the projects through debt which will allow for more generous shareholder payouts.
If they execute the mistaTea Plan all will be forgiven with Bowman. When I am next in the UK I would make a point of looking him up and buying him a beer.
Can't say I blame you. I'm sitting on a modest 20k gain so I can afford to roll with it a bit longer. But if they don't offer something tangible to shareholders by February, I'll be off as well. The property sale must surely be a done deal by then, and what they do with the funds will be the litmus test of whether the Board are confident enough in the business to start paying a return to shareholders (ie the owners of the business), or whether they are just going to keep harping on about investing for the future. As far as I'm concerned, the future is NOW!
A bit part of this was the opportunity cost of holding. I’ve watched other stocks fly sky high and mean while sky doesn’t. I’ve come out with a profit so that’s what matters to me. I’ve moved it into another asx stock that’s gone up 10%. More risk with that spec stock but a bit like crypto will have big swings. I guess I’m more of a trader now. You all will prob have the last laugh and feb is not far away so I may be back
This hawk has been flying in the thermals higher in Sky for while now
More lucrative multibag pickings elsewhere, while NZX mostly drifts in places lower :)
There are times when sacrificing a few small scraps biffed out in by Co's in troubled times
can be better option .. chasing a larger trove elsewhere in the distance ;)
Realised I blundered with this earlier post by not including the lease costs under IFRS16.
I was wondering why the cashflow was suddenly higher than my assumptions when I looked at the release of the financials!
Have updated accordingly.
But the point remains - Sky need to reinstate a meaningful dividend to drive up the valuation of the business.
There are only two ways they can do this.
Either they return all capital to shareholders from the campus sale and fund the growth projects with some debt.
Or they retain the $25M for the growth projects from the campus sale and return a smaller amount to shareholders.
I suspect they will pick the latter to keep the balance sheet clean.
So they probably only end up doing a modest share buyback of $25M-$30M maybe. Or a tax free capital return by destroying 25M shares and paying out $1/share.
Either way, it will be the dividend that drives this valuation sky high.
I don’t really like dividends because of tax etc, but Sky has taught me that dividends are critical in NZ. How much underlying cashflow the business continues to generate is not rewarded at all unless a good chunk of it is paid out like regular coupons.
Sky announces they have retained the rights to the a-league. Not a major critical deal, but personally for me its one of the few reasons I still have SkySport.
I also have sky for the a-league mainly
Such winning…
Attachment 13214
Forget takeover - the game is over.
Sky is going to be operated for capital growth - that's clear based upon the collective thoughts and comments on this thread, right?
So no takeover, no dividends and no likelihood of a change in strategy?
Hear the sp crashing?
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRR :eek2:
It's as I pointed out earlier...Bowman and the rest of the Board have set the bar as to what they need to get the SP above now.
As soon as they rejected the opening bid of 23cps (which would have likely ended up 25cps+ if they actually tried to negotiate...) the Board were saying that they are highly confident, based on their insider knowlege, that Sky is worth much more than that.
If they are right, then the patient should be rewarded soon. The longer it takes for them to increase the quoted value of the business, the higher they need to get that quoted value to justify the rejection of the takeover offer.
So far, all we see is the usual - a sliding SP.
So the Board need to pull out something pretty big between now and the HY results to justify their decision in June.
I am confident that they can do a reasonable capital return with a generous dividend because they will have plenty of cash.
If they keep $25M from the property sale to fund the growth projects there will be plenty of money from operating cashflows to distribute to shareholders over the coming years.
But even though they can do it...will they do it?
If they play it ultra conservative then the SP may stay sub $2.30.
[QUOTE=Balance;924957]Forget takeover - the game is over.
Sky is going to be operated for capital growth - that's clear based upon the collective thoughts and comments on this thread, right?
So no takeover, no dividends and no likelihood of a change in strategy?
Hear the sp crashing?
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRR :eek2:
Nah, I for one, don't buy into the idea that no return to shareholders is likely or desirable. It's already been shown by various posters, including myself, that SKY have plenty of headroom to invest in the business and commence dividends. The two aren't mutually exclusive. If they remain tone deaf to investors then they risk a collapse in share price as both retail investors and institutions relinquish their positions. I could buy into the growth strategy if SKY and this Board had demonstrated an abilty to deliver. Which of course they haven't. Which is why making a some sort of return to shareholders from the considerable funds that they will have available to them is so vital to restoring investor confidence. Nothing demonstrates more clearly that the business is solid than paying a dividend.
So you bought somewhere between $1.81 and $1.84 on 10 Nov, confident that the property sale was happening "any day now", then next thing "it's a matter of time", and now it's "$1.60 by Christmas".
That's not very encouraging Balance, do you have some insights as to the state of the property sale that has given you pause for thought?
Looks like I made “dem gainz” on the 5K shares I bought today @$1.80.
See the question marks I put after the sentences in my post?
I am simply pointing out the scenario as painted by the collective comments on this thread.
And taking the p... out of a couple of posters who I believe have sold out and are now attempting to ramp the sp ever lower.
Am happy for the sp in the short term to drift lower - does not faze me one iota and looking forward to adding a few more before the inevitable property sale (& other deals being worked on in the background) occur.
All good. :t_up:
For sure.
And the Board/Management have done some things that have really disappointed. Outrageous actions really, and I do think Bowman will have to sling his hook by the HY results.
But now is not the time to bail imo if you have been holding a a while.
We have gone through the real crappy part of the turnaround...it is natural for patience to wear thin at this stage, but we are about to get tens of millions of dollars from the campus sale, we have $35M cash in the bank and are adding to that pile every month. Even if we fully funded ALL capex requirements this financial year from operating cashflow, we would still be adding ~$1.5M/month to our cash balance.
They will almost certainly earmark $25M from the campus sale for the growth projects instead of taking on debt to fund it. I do think we need to start usng debt in future, but perhaps just using some money from the property sale is the more prudent thing to do for now. Until we have further gains from the strategy execution anyway.
That means a more modest buyback/capital return, but it also means that the cash balance from operations grows at something closer to $3.5M/month.
Then by the Feb results, the cash balance would have grown by ~20M since the annual results. Even if they wanted to keep the $35M already sitting there in case other opportunities present next year, they could pay 75% of HY FCF generated = $15M.
If we assume that at the FY results they pay at least another $15M (maybe even $20M) then a total payment of $30M would be a great result for the owners of the business. Even a yield of 6% would be a market cap of $500M ($2.85/share).
I think the long suffering shareholders would be a lot happier with the Board (and possibly even forgive previous transgressions!) if they did something like this.
But with the vague statements we have had to endure for the last year or so, there really is no telling which way they will go.
I did a final Sky Nation survey for the new STB prior to release why Sky make the ‘finishing touches’.
One of the questions asked whether or not I would prefer to pay a $199 one-off fee to own the box or pay $10/month for as long as I am a customer.
I would be included to just pay the two hundred bucks and be done with it. Works out cheaper if you will be a customer for longer than 20 months.
But what does everyone think else think? Most people will probably just pay the $10 rental fee?
Crazy that the MYSKY fee should be more than the fee for the new STB!
Had the survey too Mr T
Did the same, been a customer for a long time, don't see me changing in the next 2 years or so- especially with this new STB, therefore would pay the $199 up front
Oh look at that NZME doing a buyback. Their market cap will be more than SkT soon.
Track how NZME has managed their capital effectively over the last 12 months to see market value appreciation.
Pooman, seriously sort it out, or go join the far queue.