Thought the Morgan man was optimistic when he predicted a fall to 4400 this year
Jeez it’s below 4000 already
Some say ‘fair value’ based on sensible valuations etc is about 2800
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balance is a trader going of the calls at covod lows and now the bring on the crash calls lol
probably not even holding those hlg for $10 anymore like was crowed about lol
anyway the nz budget might save the day :p
Nobody has to sell quality stocks just as nobody has to buy junk stocks.
That’s as simple as it gets when it comes to markets going up and markets going down.
It is what it is - so if a crash is coming, sharp, fast & deep is good rather than a long dragged out market decline. And imo, a crash is in order just like in 2020.
Doubt it our markets are hit by what happens in western markets.
Government spending never does much its usually non productive spending unless it infrastructure .... and then it full of politics.
Recent projects have been huge sources of just throw hundreds of millions at what in some cases?
How did the cycle way bridge cost that much without any concrete...
Keep your trading description to yourself.
I buy and hold quality stocks with upside potential & market resilience. It is all about how one positions one’s investment portfolio.
Go back to 2020 and see who urged calm and perspective while the market crashed.
And who was running from pillar to post with little coherence to their postings.
I never thought you might be able to post something positive, but hey - this is great! Sounds like this might be the way to curb our obesity epidemic! Slimmer and healthier people - less pressure on our health system ... less cancer, less diabetes, lower need for hip replacements .... we might look forward to paradisic times :t_up:
Markets do not go down forever just as they do not go up forever - without corrections.
The wild card is the multitude of Robinhood & Sharesies like investors who are having their first real taste of a bear market - will they hold or will they fold?
The big boys have been very good at harassing their exuberance to steer stocks and markets in the direction which best suits them - so watch carefully.
anyway if you want to hear some real bull.... grant is speaking later today
No signs of widespread panic selling on NZX today .... only one or two nervous nelies
Sales of the book JUST KEEP BUYING still booming they say
Double dip on the cards tonight in the US?..
I think for many they're starting to see the "buy the dip", followed by "buy the dip of the dippity dip" is still resulting in LINE GO DOWN. Diamond hand memes might be soothing during bull market corrections. In a bear market? I think retail capitulate (a good portion at least) near the bottom. The shake out will leave a big pile of risk-adverse former investors much as the late 80's did in NZ*.
*My father and his siblings stayed well clear after his sister got hammered in '87; Dad never went beyond a mutual fund after that.
Good news Robertson expects inflation to peak at 6.3% later this year (2022)
The Treasury downgrades forecast for economic growth
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128...conomic-growth
the downgrades start
I thought that was a good day?
Don't we want to secure future cash flows for cheaper prices? Reinvest dividends at far more attractive rates?
Everything is arse about face.
Even if I have no cash to invest... A massive decline will make me phenomenally wealthy as long as it doesn't recover quickly.
Strange day ... started off down 60-70k ...now getting to the end of the day up 3k WTF? biggest fall in the DOW for last 2yrs >>
The Futures market is supposed to be telling the future right?
Zooming out to a monthly chart of the Nasdaq futures there have only been two previous second month closes below the 24 month EMA since the dot-bomb bust. GFC was the other one. Decide for yourself whether the tech index currently is a bomb or a GFC or something else.
I suspect many here haven't experienced a serious rout or how long it takes to recover.
Look how long it took to recover from the highs. The Dot-Bomb took about 16 years to recover to it's 'futures' price. The GFC was in the middle of that, it stole 3 years of that Dot-Bomb recovery.
Look also that this is only the third time in twenty+ years that Naz futures are forecasting a second month lower close below the 24 month EMA. And it's only just starting.
There's a hard lesson coming.
Easy money for you to make going short then.
S&P500 futures down slightly.
getting close to our initial target of 3800 or there abouts. of course i still think its going even lower but that was just an initial move from the highs.
even lower :scared: yea still hasnt even priced in the slowdown enough in earnings to come , pe ratio's etc are still high just based on this as well as other metrics
Stocks fell into a bear market on Friday with the S&P 500 now off 20% from its record
“Stocks are still liberally priced and the psychology that drove them upward for a decade has turned negative,” wrote George Ball, chairman at investment firm Sanders Morris Harris. “The average bear market lasts a year (338 days, more precisely). This downturn has run for only one-third of that, so it probably has more downside room to run, albeit punctuated by interim rallies.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/stoc...lose-news.html
Interesting view. It may be true that the US has used a low rates environment to bid up equity markets but I wouldn't say that, for example, the UK is any safer. It's just that in the UK people preferred to bid up housing. If countries allowed an asset bubble to develop investors are likely to take a kicking sooner or later, it won't particularly matter what that asset bubble is in.
I'm less pessimistic about OECD governments being able to protect their populations from rising consumer costs however. There are a lot of EM countries out there that have been subsidising food commodities and hydrocarbons using debt. They are running out of financing options however. Once they go belly-up pressure will start to be relieved on commodities.
Kiwibank reckon mortgages of 6.0 to 7.5% in 12 months. Imagine those lucky souls who locked in 3.1% 5 year mortgages last year
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...en-though-they
Reserve bank meeting this week to confirm another half point increase in OCR.
NZX equities be under more pressure as TINA is dead
7.5% rates will break many households in NZ and investors ..yes hindsight I should have locked in 5yrs 2.99% but stupidly I listened to central bankers talking up low rates for many years to come min 2023-24 ...next minute.. rates through the roof ... my 2.19% one year fixed comes due JUL22 ..
[QUOTE=JBmurc;958728]7.5% rates will break many households in NZ and investors ..yes hindsight I should have locked in 5yrs 2.99% but stupidly I listened to central bankers talking up low rates for many years to come min 2023-24 ...next minute.. rates through the roof ... my 2.19% one year fixed comes due JUL22 ..[/QUOTE
JB most banks allow you to lock in 60 days in advance, your call but OCR this week.
One doesn't want to miss the best days of the market, as Kevin O'Leary points out below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PupWO7mpZXo
Looks like we've had the Boom & now Bust is just round the corner
Just in time to catch all those that got housed up in the past 5 or so years
Alas the property market looks like it might solve itself, but costs are headed off the graph :)
Let the politicians try to explain that one down to the loyal confused followers & see how it goes ;)
[QUOTE=stoploss;958730]I'm pretty sweet .. planning on paying off the commercial property loan .. just my Share trading company loan .. sounds like tomorrows rate hike is being priced in by the banks ...but I'm sure they will move higher if RBNZ talks of another hike next meeting >>
[QUOTE=JBmurc;958769]yes its a tricky one as from about 5.50 % on mortgage rates I think there will be real pain for quite a few people. So personally think it is priced into the fixed rates . However if inflation for whatever reason ( CCY & Oil prices a big one ) does not pull back into line and spending fall off a cliff he might be forced to keep going ......ouch
Going above 5.5% by any large margin will result in mass mortgagee sales. it'll sure be a good way to kick start a housing correction. Though supply constraints have meant building costs have near caught up with this overpriced housing bubble. Perhaps that will stabiles prices to a degree. Land values and aging houses will have to take the hit. Tis going to be tough until wages catch up for those that scrape buy now while servicing loans.
Yet were in a building boom. Normally a building slowdown foreshadows a recession. It's all a bit flipsy flopsy... Rate hikes could be the cause rather than the cure. I think trying to control this inflation burst is a bad plan. The horse is fine, the cart's just a bit wobbly. Just leave him in the stable eating hey. The problem will fix itself, Its probably already half way there.
[QUOTE=clearasmud;958786]I wouldn't unless its going be your own home etc...I do keep an eye on some local property markets and with rates going higher new property investor rules etc .. I'd rather put funds in peer to peer lending side of NZ Property market get 7-10% return without all the costs and as much stresses
Thanks guys. It going to be my own home.
Getty, you got me thinking about the Hutt river flooding.
Haven't seen much in Lower Hutt that I'd want to buy lately. Seems like only the dregs being listed or overpriced new builds.
I'll have 2x new builds hitting the rental market in a month if you don't find a place to buy.
Hutt River not the problem anymore, has been tamed with a significant amount of civils in the past 10 years. Global warming/rising sea level is seen to be the issue, even if it doesn't eventuate it might be hard/expensive to insure.
Bill Ackman says a more aggressive Fed or market collapse are the only ways to stop this inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/bill...inflation.html
Aren't you a bit early? I thought you would be looking some time after 2025?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/da...s-gold-bitcoin
Ray Dalio doesn't help much. Cash is trash and stocks are trashier. Real Estate and gold and a speculation on BTC. In an inflationary environment a heavily mortgaged house will do OK I guess but are we just coming off the peak of a housing bubble or will inflation take care of this.
No idea, not sure why I replied except I thought you had some strong convictions around cycles and the timing of these.
Retail sales drop as cost of living rises
An economist says rising consumer prices are starting to have some effect on retail sales volumes, but the worst could be yet to come
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...ing-rises.html
its starting :scared:
well rbnz super hawkish :scared: more 50s coming
there goes nzx , of course its part of the rbnz strategy as well more importantly in NZ the housing market
The RBNZ Head Seatwarmer Officially throws his Oar into mix it up higher:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128...cash-rate-to-2
Reserve Bank hikes official cash rate to 2%
Who was it on here forecast Sticky times, Recession or a Crash in late 2022 ? ;)
Better start preparing a medal for that poster :)
NZX50 down 1% since OCR increase announcement
Yes Bull, next 1-2 year interest rates projections will all be history and we will be going the other way.
Investors just need to stick to their knitting
Through everything out the window when I concluded that the recent housing mania was the top.
My guru who I no longer subscribe to seemed confused in an interview.
I realize that the housing market could take years to reach bottom but I don't want to wait.
No strong convictions anymore and it's not a great feeling.
Really enjoy reading what you have to say, agree that Orr was niave about deflation.
Time to get real IMO
RBNZ were the exact outfit which facilitated the large Money Printing exercise which in turn
resulted in excess extra money supply in the goldfish bowl in the first place.
The Real Unreported Large Scale Inflation event occurred with that Act from the RB.
Everyone saw the effects of that event but for some reason the RB must have been too asleep
blind, stupid or incompetent to notice what their magic money creation scheme would likely result in.
A small child in any of the country's kindergartens could have likely pointed out what the
likely outcome would be ;)
Perhaps ORR should step down / resign over this ? ;)
There is absolutely no excuse for RB belatedly waking up that there is suddenly inflation
hitting their dials (which was always there in real terms because they created it) or
for their suddenly moving to potentially crash sectors of the economy, thereby risking
potential Recession or worse bringing on Depression through their own acts..
bad news for NZ out of china yesterday. china saying growth slowing down rapidly
China's economy worse off in some ways than 2020, says Premier
https://www.business-standard.com/ar...2501323_1.html
seems like ORR is frightening the sheep NZX beaten down again
nice little intr-day range trading going on in the nzx , breakdown should send us down too the target i mentioned a while back of 10700.
Today have signs of Panic selling ...
I think we could very easily go under 10,000. We're very close, 18% down from the peak in early 2021, from the NZX50 going into official Bear market territory, (down 20%). There seems no obvious silver bullet to break it out of its downward trend, in fact quite the opposite. It would seem the RBNZ are taking the gloves off with interest rates and will do anything and everything it takes to quell inflation even if it means sending the economy into a very deep and protracted recession. On top of that we have all the obvious headwinds from the war, deterioration in China our biggest trading partner, central banks around the world also raising interest rates, no obvious end to supply chain issues and hugely elevated freight costs..to name just a few of the headwinds that appear unlikely to materially abate anytime soon.
Name of the game is capital preservation in 2022. He who loses the least is the Winner !
A technicality perhaps but if we're talking bear markets being a 20% decline, it should be measured on the NZ Capital index otherwise reinvested dividends distort the picture as well as the comparability to other global indexs.
For those attempting technical analysis of a compounded divided return index... I don't know.
Revenues are absolutely exploding, US nominal GDP is through the roof.
American mid and small caps are as cheap as they've ever been in 30 years.
Sentiment is about as negative as it ever gets outside actual severe bear markets
Remember when the dunce Orr did a 50 point emergency cut in 2019 before anyone had heard of Covid AND instructed banks to prepare for negative rates...
The NZX-50 will more or less follow the s&p 500 index.
I didn't see RBNZ as being that "hawkish", Orr just said they would control inflation. Retail rates didn't move much when the announcement was made indicating it was broadly in line with their expectations. They didn't say they where going to increase the rate they where increasing at or flood the bond market selling off assets.
S&P500 is doing OK this year. There have been modest declines but not panic yet. It's a fighting retreat and not a rout.