of course you will...but hopefully it will be an educated guess--especially if you believe there is a psychological element to investor behavior.
Printable View
Nows your chance Klid--One has to wonder though ,with all these potential announcements around the corner--whats taking the wind out of this puppys sails?
I think it makes sense, just looking at a 5 year graph on Google here: http://www.google.com/finance?q=NZE:PEB
It seems that a jump to $2.25-$5.10 is imminent? It's just waiting for the news...
Just going off a 3x of what it is now/has been. :) Which has happened twice before as you can see on 5y graph.
Flawed logic maybe but I like it.
Hi klid, that graph can be refined a bit, which may offer further insight.
Zoom in to 3 years, take out the noise by going to a monthly view, put in the 50/200 MA's that many people like, add some trendlines .. the red is the closing price, and the green is the lows price. Then add the horizontal support price lines.
This is what it looks like to me, just from a simplified technical viewpoint, PEB has already broken down from the closing price trendline and may be respecting the lows trend line, with current closing price hard on horizontal support (which has also technically broken down with the monthly low below 0.77 at 0.74).
The price is also below the big MA's, but also below a fairly tight 21day EMA. This is where people like to argue whether that picture is a up uptrend, or a downtrend, but it's just a matter of how far back in time you choose to take into account. Technically, 3-4 months of declining price is a downtrend on a monthly chart, though it's been predominantly down for almost a year. The chorus of 'you be mad to buy a downtrend' is so far correct, but we probably could admit it's the bottom of the current downtrend that we're looking for.
All the standard indicators say it's oversold, but that tends to imply it should be bought, whereas Money Flow is more illuminating, suggesting a slight possibility that the steep decline (money & volume - out) may be broken to the upside. The summary technically I think is that this is dangerous as the price could easily collapse to support at 0.62, or even worse 0.48.
So the thing that I would agree with in your optimistic analysis is that PEB needs good news, any goods news actually, even a wee glimmer of hope would help. I can't comment on what that news would be that would take the price up to 20% or so over the all time high, let alone the $5's. But I'm watching closely as well.
BAA
Pacific Edge has historically had long periods of no news with a gradually diminishing share price after each major announcement spike. A single announcement seems to only have a temporary effect these days. We have two or three major announcements that are expected. One is the Medicare/Medicaid agreement expected early 2015 as is the launching of triage in the US along with a Kaiser Permanente clinical trial of triage. There is also the not insignificant Full Year report available at the end of May. Each day that goes past without any news at all to me means that the likelihood of getting multiple major announcements together like Oct/Nov 2013 is increasing. There are also many other things that could arrive, JV in Japan, Spain finally getting going, colorectal launch, results of multiple clinical trials.
Personally I would rather be in the gate waiting quietly for developments than outside attempting to find the very bottom and missing out in the inevitable stampede, but maybe thats just me.
GLTA, DYOR, TINIA:)
Good luck to all,
This is not investment advice
Sorry, saves writing