Agree - and here is the link to make it easier to find the chart:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post956086
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Agree - and here is the link to make it easier to find the chart:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post956086
Easy.
If you are brave and if you believe the bear will stay around: stay in cash and / or buy ETF's shorting share indices like e.g. BEAR, BBOZ or BBUS!
Obviously - make sure you don't miss the bottom ... same as with the top, there is no bell ringing to wake shorters up.
For investors or more faint hearted traders: Buy companies with pricing power producing stuff people need .... and keep plenty of cash in safe locations (NO - not under the mattress ...).
One last thing ... they say don't panic, but if you must, panic early (which may or may not be already too late).
Good luck ... and don't panic ... s. above
I posted this on 27th April Post #10716. (edit:..Sharetrader has chart display problems :mad ;: if you can't see the chart please click the link) read the purple text near the right hand bottom of the chart.
NZ50C index's yesterdays close was 4,550.6899 lets round that up to 4551 shall we.
The difference between a Technical Bear and Official Bear Market Cycle is you have the earlier knowledge of the NZX50C index's current trading behavioral pattern....that is the index's behavior will be similar to that of a bear. Observing the Technical Bear can give you fore-warning to be cautious and change one's investment strategy ... Waiting for it to become an official Bear Market Cycle could be and usually is very costly (a more or less 20% dent to your portfolio)..Waiting also creates an investment "locked in" dilemma..."I've lost 20% so I don't want to sell and realise the loss but if I don't sell the market could go down further and if I do sell the market could rally without me...
A Bear's behaviour that investors should know about:
1..Loveable and cute at first until it gets cranky and throws a hissyfit,.
2..Bears are dangerous and destructive animals.
3..A bear's temperment is highly volatile and when in a rage it displays gross irrationality. In between the rages the bear seems calm, playful and friendly.
4..Bears have a great sense of smell and can sniff out animals that are hiding. They can even climb trees.
5..Bears are Omnivores. Their diet is eat anything.. quote from faunafacts..."....A bear’s diet can change to adapt to the weather or habitat it’s in. For example, when bears leave their dens in the spring post hibernation, it’s not uncommon for them to exist on a diet of available berries and winter-killed carrion like moose, deer, or fish...."
Now with the investor armed with this knowledge..what is the best and safest the answer to this question.."If you were walking in the woods one day and saw a bear roaming the same woods, what should you do...Ignore the bear and keep walking? go up to the bear and give it a hug? hide? turn around and leave the woods and come back when the bear is gone?"
Giving the bear a hug might seem a ridiculous answer but from the various investing forums it seems many hug the bear by using the buy and hold strategy during both Bull and Bear Cycles.
The stock market will definitely go lower from here, unless it goes higher, which it might; but only if doesn’t go lower. Which it shall, unless it doesn’t… then it won’t.
Alokdhir..in answer to your question. We are seeing the bears claws and the mauling of investors..Remember the bear is irrational (fundamentally my quote:..The bear can't count)..We maybe be near Bear market Cycle phase 2 which sees the bear calming down for a while and investors will come out of hiding and create a relief rally just how large any relief rally is depends on the news..all you need to know is the market is still a bear and the next tantrum will create a lower low..
Perhaps 4500 is the point where investor relief starts..time will tell.
If a rally starts from 4500 expect disappoints on the way.. Don't expect it to go through many resistance levels. Most bear rallies fail at the next major resistance level (4800)..There are a lot of minor resistance levels above 4800 so the index has to have powerful buyer momentum to push through all those resistances to reach 5050. Although anything is possible it is asking a bit much when in the NZ50C is a bear......that's the statistical result fact
From my post #10716 The descending triangle pattern formed during a down trend is considered a continuation pattern in other words the chances of the NZ50C index breaking out below the triangle pattern has far greater odds than breaking out through the top..
How is this worked out?...Many people do statistical analysis of 10 of thousands and maybe hundreds of thousands of each pattern to determine the odds..One of these people has book and Bulkowski's The Pattern Site is must see for anyone interested in TA charting.
To get a basic understanding of charting..Charting displays the past up to the present day of all buyers and sellers grouped together..This is the psychological trading behaviour in a graphic form. Strangely most people believe in the written alphabetic form but most dismiss (skeptic) the numeric or visible form ..even though they believe that a picture can be worth a 1000 words.
Predicting in charting is based on the results of 10 or 100 of thousands of past results to obtain a statistical result (probability of a happening).
My chart shows a descending triangle breakout and the statistical probability of after the fall buyers start to become excited again (psychological) and start to influence the market with their buying. with NZ50C that should start around the 4500 level..This is as long as there isn't any sudden bad news...this could be the Stage 2 developing when we see an end to the latest sharp drop and replaced with a few sucker rallies Usually during a Bear Market Cycle (early stage 1 phase) it takes a while before investor denial dissipates ..The media displays peoples feelings so when people are in denial the news is usually more optimistic than it should be and we hear more good news than bad news..
We have reached the point of the Bear Market cycle (late phase 1) where the investors are starting to realise..so the denial is dissipating..the media reacts according and starts to publish more bad news than good news and so the fulfilling prophesy begins with capitulation waves before the commencement of Bear Market phase 2 which sees investor relief after the capitulation waves. On the chart it is easy to see the Bear Market phases because of its vision showing the past behaviour..but when the Bear Market Starts at that time it is impossible to see it as it looks like one of many bull market cycle corrections..It's only when the Bear Market cycle matures towards stage 2 that we get the feeling that the bull might be dead..
Thanks heaps for your post Hoop
Thanks Hoop. Well worded :t_up:
Has US inflation peaked?
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflati...ll-it-decline/
No more cheap 0-3% consumer loans at least (and the poor students who pay more than that).
Should take some money out of the system.
A dollar is not what it once was. Quantitative easing, supply chain issues, war...... We're just playing catch up.
According to CNBC (your fav) the consensus is for 8.1% headline CPI and core CPI of 6%. Fingers crossed it comes in below.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/10/aprils-consumer-price-index-report-expected-to-show-inflation-has-already-peaked-.html
Think we could all do another day without the yanks market melting down
I'm less worried about inflation when it's below the rate of wage growth. Otherwise inflation reduces the spending power of consumers in real terms which makes the economic environment very difficult for companies to engineer meaningful growth. When consumers are shocked it typically takes a long time for them to start spending again.
Looking Green SP500 futures up 1.15% Energy up strongly .. Bring on trade tomorrow .. didn't watch the markets today far to busy Golfing >>> and Glad I was Rubbish Flat day
I've name my portfolio "Amber Heard" because it just sh!t the bed
Mr. Market doesn't seem to care right now, shrugged off the higher inflation and took off. Maybe realising Powell tied one hand behind the Feds back by promising no 75bps rises yesterday made them realise that the inflation numbers didn't really matter all that much and the Fed would do whatever it was going to do anyway regardless of the inflation data?
Big dip tomorrow? Feels like the warm up?..
Inflation barreled ahead at 8.3% in April from a year ago, remaining near 40-year highs
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/cpi-april-2022.html
3800 here we come or lower ?
these hot inflation figures are political in the US WHICH MEANS LOTS OF PRESSURE ON POWELL
i was talking the other day about the correllation between bitcoin and nasdaq and how in sync they are. or is nasdaq leading bitcoin ?
well anyway who ever is leading who got some interesting things happening like
bitcoin sitting on major support roughly now , has had big bounces of these levels twice since 2021
anyway im not saying it going to bounce here but im more wondering what happen if it breaks down below these big supports ? would that imply nasdaq will get crushed on the downside along with the bitcoin anyway worth watching the bitcoin level
After reading Hoop's thoughts about Bear markets ....I did some more research and found that Bear markets can be mostly short lived ...fast and furious rerating of stock prices based on changed fundamentals ....very likely to overshoot fair values by a huge margin as when stampede happens then destruction also is caused .
So what expert TA people and experienced analysts think aloud about possible level at which NZX 50 will become deep value ....like Covid drop it went till 8500 intraday ...it was faster down so could recover fast too ....this time it can stay down longer till fundamentals support recovery ...
IMO anything close to 10000-10500 band will make NZX 50 look value and it may stabilise around that ...intra day or short term can undershoot that ...but base formation maybe around that band ....another 10% downside possible ...but need some up retracement first ...Hoops bear rally till 11700 can do that then stage 3 and final capitulation around October !!!
All fascinating stuff, so presumably a computer could easily be programmed to recognise these insightful patterns and shapes and lines, and then applying some sophistry it would be able to interpret better than a human. Wall street with it's unlimited genius and capital would be able to design these programs to get the better of the market.
All the computer would need was to have a very slight edge or be right fractionally more than wrong and it would be able to print money.
Or is it just a human in New Zealand using his own eyes and experience that can use these techniques to predict the future price movements?
Food prices were 6.4% higher in April this year than last, with increases across all the food categories measured, Stats NZ says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...n-minimum-wage
probably only going to get worse
Think what all these higher prices will do to sales or revenues ...they will go up with inflation numbers plus some organic growth if company lucky to do that ...Now if any company which can keep margins safe or have high margins to start with will have great EPS growth ...lol Inflation can work for eps growth too ...need inelastic demand company with excellent management to manage margins
Kiwis were being forced to spend more money on essential items and less on other commodities, Milford Asset Management portfolio manager Will Curtayne told AM on Thursday.
He said recession territory was getting dangerously close in New Zealand.
"The risks are going up and it's not a good outlook, and it's grim news."
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...-stats-nz.html
The possibility of New Zealand going into recession is "rising by the day", an economist at one of the country's biggest banks has warned.
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said on Wednesday the chance of a soft landing for the economy was fading - and getting dangerously close to recession territory
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...erts-warn.html
NZX ... timber timber
Sure - lets do it.
Having said that - given the alternatives at that time do I still think that the last election managed to pick the lesser evil (even if it seems to get worse from day to day). Let's not blame NZ's voting behaviour - there just was very little talent to pick around ...
But hey, this is not the political thread, so I better shut up.
This is the 2nd worst start to a year for the S&P 500 in history>>>> a Better 2H coming up ??
Grant Robertson acknowledged a recession is possible but said New Zealand is well-positioned should one eventuate
Good to know we are well positioned
Look, I know I go on about this but I wonder if this market crash/downtrend/correction signals the demise of ESG funds? I saw a Kiwisaver advert on the telly last night proudly declaring that their product has zero exposure to fossil fuels. Did we reach peak ESG just about the same time that at least some energy (for example) was essential to have in ones portfolio? Even the growth heavy S&P500 has nearly 5 per cent exposure to energy - low for sure but its better than nothing.
Interesting tweet from Brian Sullivan below on this topic.
https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status...64297065201668
Saving Capital Markets - coming soon to a theater near you
https://twitter.com/litcapital/statu...lxanCiK5WbMjHA
NZD getting thumped again down nearly a cent --- that imported inflation be going thru the roof next quarter.
Yes,unfort a greenwashing spin.And yet it's many years before alternative energy gets any where near replacing oil,coal,gas and they are far more expensive with enormous amounts of energy required to make them.Maybe Nuclear power plants are the only hope . A decade of under investment in exploration by the major oil companies has really turbo charged the undersupply of energy for the foreseeable future imo.
My investment in energy stocks is protecting my( sold down in last few months ) portfolio big time.My small investment in green energy pumped hydro and solar down 50 % atp.
Fair enough. Sorry, I did not mean to cause offence re WW2 by finding the post humorous. Only trying to take solace and share in humour re the bear market like in March, to make it more passable. Never met my grandad who was shotdown over japan…took photos of bombing damage during the raids.
In a place with no safety net unemployment can be particuarly bad.
Maybe this is partly why US authorities are reluctant to deal with inflation (at the cost of jobs).
For those unbelievers
" We believe that higher energy prices will, over the medium term, accelerate electrification and the march towards renewables by lowering the barriers to entry (by making alternative forms of energy more compelling cost-wise). Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we have also seen huge investment into renewables projects as well as green hydrogen. This strategy provides the Fund with exposure to what we believe will be a dominant theme over the next decade."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+12+May+2022
S&P500 futures down again pre-opening.
Edit to add: PPI over forcast as well unfortunately. Sticky wicket this inflation business.
sea of red again on stock markets ... still plenty to go in this bear
nzd dollar crushed again
anyway i see people are starting selling there winners now too ie apple tanking this week , other sector safe spots like utilities / staples , energy will all follow soon tooo a degree
guess it wont be long before the bear engulf the whole market as they do
wonder when the etf redemtion rush will commence ?
@jasongoepfert
Today, more than 29% of issues on the NYSE have hit a 52-week low. On the Nasdaq, it's more than 33%.
There have been only 18 similar days since 1984.
The S&P 500 showed a loss a year later once, for -0.2%. Its median return was +32.0%.
normal day when the vix is so high. anyway the rally at the close was algo driven on a fed comment
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia
W69 is a seasoned player unlike the reef fishes attracted into the market in the last 2 years because of the easy returns from the prolific $$$$ printing by governments.
Going to be plenty of tasty treats in the months ahead but we need CAPITULATION - sooner the better.
futures selling off now
cnbc quoting powell just said a soft landing may be hard to acheive.
guess if he achieves one he be a legend as not many if any fed people have ever achieved one in a tightening cycle
Petrol still ways too cheap.
Too many idiots still can afford to cruise with their gas guzzlers night after night through town. Boyracers still burning fuel and diesel to annoy and endanger the neighbourhood, kids can still afford to endanger and annoy the neighbourhoods with their illegal and dangerous motocross activities ... and the queue of big gas guzzling four wheel drives picking up kids from school (and bringing them home on sealed roads) seems to get longer rather than shorter.
Waiting for $5 per litre, maybe this might settle it?
I don't think $5 per litre of fuel is going to help with the cost of living. Everything you and I consume is transported via trucks that consume diesel fuel and that's not going to change in the next 20+ years.
You are right ... though 20 years is a long window ... things might well change until then.
Anyway - currently too many people clearly have still too many resources at their avail - the fact that they waste these resources and even use them to destroy the planet instead of using them to survive is clear evidence.
But hey - maybe its just evidence for the stupidity of the human race, which Einstein said is unlimited ... ?
nzx not having a good day so far i have initial supports at around 10700 and then around covid lows but nothing is assumed in this environment thats for sure , i mean bear market
I think it's really about pollution and the toxic environment we are creating. Apparently they have recently discovered microplastics can bridge the membranes from blood stream to brain. Air land and sea all under threat. Nothing to do with CO2.
If this is what Friday the 13th brings, what does Monday have in Store ? ;)
Even Crypto has had a huge slump - $320 Bil
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/wor...-in-single-day
Might be a time to be a fair quotient cashed up probably in something other than the local fiat :)
With the way confidence levels locally are, the guts could drop out of the Kiwi $ as well ;)
Apparently hydrocarbon pollution and other pollutants can cause brain shrinkage and increase dementia risk.
https://www.britannica.com/story/air...-dementia-risk
air-pollution-may-contribute-to-alzheimers-and-dementia-risk
The vomiting camel pattern
Won't be a Black Monday this coming week, could be black again by Wednesday though.
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles...=mw_latestnews
Central Banks becoming sensitive to Growth Concerns not just Inflation ...as expected ...its not going to be too High Rates as market discounted ...As its just not possible in current scenario ...So Bears need be vary once market readjusts rates expectations
Its a difficult situation for all especially Central Bankers ...they need fight Inflation but not at the cost of big recession causing social unrest in this Fragile world
Banks are expecting Housing market to start turning upwards from second half of 2023 ....
From that I expect stock market NZX ...should stabilise in 2022 second half ...with upwards bias or decline arrested .
From Hoop's TA expertise angle Bear rally till 11700 is very much on cards ...what it does after that will decide decline arrested or not ...Will it make new low after one made yesterday of below 4500 NZC index will be worth watching
I wouldn't say "immune" ... a number of right wing western politicians are working hard to remove accountablility for their crimes (BoJo and Trump spring to mind). They clearly are pushing hard to get us into the same mess in which many eastern countries like Russia, Turkey, North Korea, Sri Lanka and e.g. the Philipines (to name just a small number of kleptocracies) are already drowning. Powerful crooks running their countries without any checks and balances. There are a lot of idiots in the Western world supporting these criminals to get us into the same mess.
I can't remember where I read it but there is a huge story behind dirty Russian money buying large parts of London and how easy it is/was to buy approval.
Not just dirty Russian money - dirty money from everywhere (Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America and Australia). Been like that for decades - started off as providing political asylum to blatant money laundering.
The Swiss are of course the master at it but they are more discreet.
Down we go again on the S&P500, seems the FED want to be seen to be taking their inflation mandate with some degree of seriousness.
Bank if England...not so bothered it seems.
:scared: typical bear market.
UK inflation jumps to 40-year high of 9% as food and energy prices spiral
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/uk-i...es-spiral.html
Skipping meals and shrinking portions — Brits are being warned of ‘apocalyptic’ food price rises
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/skip...ice-rises.html
not just the uk skipping meals now. many people many countries doing the same. wait till next yr :scared:
SPX down more than 4% ….that’s a bad day ….even worse than being 3% down
Suppose NZX will be down today