It is a times like this one is reminded of Emperor Hirohito's famous quote after the US had bombed Hiroshima,"The war is not nessarily going our way." !!
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Owners looking after themselves>loss of confidence from investors>share price crash>owners buy them for cheap and take it private - is this what we are witnessing now?
Looks like Belgie's stop getting triggered by the 3:10pm seller. Probably only got another couple of mill to go, eh? :p
But yes, agree not looking good and plenty of time to fall further before they tell us all is going gangbusters at the agm.
If it's not worth close to NTA, then it is impossible to know what it is worth, as there is a presumption of impairments and/or future losses being built into value. Market wants clarity as to where it will end up and so that will take time.
GK telling his detractors to put up or shut up as there has been some serious big selling out of PGC and HNZ? He is now giving them a chance to get taken out at 33 cents in PGC, instead of him being squeezed out.
The battle lines are drawn - just sit back and watch the fun. Old money vs new old money.
So far, both sides have done badly!
https://www.nzx.com/companies/HNZ/announcements/215563
the plot thickens !!
This is an interesting statement:
Does that mean that the government provisions for EQC payments will shortly show up as coming off private sector debt? And will private sector debt be re-established to a greater or lesser extent once those home-owners begin to rebuild?Quote:
Consumer business performing well offsetting a sluggish mortgage market where EQC payments have resulted in a reduction in the mortgage book
I know the money-flow of Chch rebuild has been talked about often enough and will be drip-fed over longer than most might think likely, but I think we (as share investors) may still be underestimating its likely impact... and will likely one day under-estimate its cessation.
Another interesting comment:
That wouldn't need a mention if they didn't already have some clues and wish to divert further questions. So 80% chance it's not going to be an upgrade?Quote:
The forecast is in the process of being updated, further guidance will be provided once complete
I did go to the meeting yesterday. The business seems to be going ok. The Press report this morning is pretty accurate.
Some other intersting facts:
- Currently $500m liquidity including $150m in cash. Greenslade said that it is a bit high and that they are working hard to get the funds working.
- 97% of funds are now out of the Govt. Garantee.
- Bank Registration: They are now in engagement with the Reserve Bank.
- The equity ratio is very high @ 14%.
- The NTA post the PGF purchase is 84cps.
- The reinvestment rate is 74% which is above their target of 70%
At this stage all is going to plan.
Cheers
Thanks SCOTTY,it is always good to here from a fellow investor who went to the meeting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lizard;357226 19-Sep-11
Kiwibank could get asset sale cash - Key (Stuff)Quote:
Originally Posted by Lizard;357271 20-Sep-11
Reminder to self once again - "whenever you find yourself making a comparison with another business to justify a valuation, you are usually just proving that the other business is over-valued."
Interesting profit forecast - slight downgrade at $20-$22m NPAT, but sounds like the $6m deferred tax benefit is included in the forecast? Good to hear impairments are lower than forecast and higher than anticipated level of referrals from PGW.
Price has been plateauing here, so if there is any hint of volume building on the buy side, I would be interested in adding to my initial position. Although, while we all sit around the campfire, waiting to see if we get struck by fall-out from the sovereign debt meteorite or pass through the tail of another banking crisis comet, it seems prudent to watch a little longer...
Keep holding yourself at the ready lizard. !!!!!!
I thought the $6 mil would have been on top,so when I saw the announcement I thought it would be a profit upgrade,not a profit downgrade.!!!The impairments being down I take that they are taking few risks.Certainly trying to be a bank rather than a finance company.Maybe too careful,not wanting to miss out on bank licence. Hopefully laying good foundations for the future.Sitting on so much cash and liquidity does not earn profits,so once over Govt guarantee that cash /liquidity should be put to use.Still they are doing everything very carefully,moving forward as to plan,so shareholders will rewarded by having a very run company they can pride of ownership in.
Perc.
Was wondering whether to respond to lizards as I feel much the same.. So much happening global.. Have a few shillings ready to spend but feeling very wary..
To increase or not to increase.. That is the question..
Must admit that I think that the company is on the right track..
BUT... with all the shenanigans going on at PGC who have a finger in the HNZ pie..
Are they masters of their own destiny ??