Good post.
For the record i havn't sent a private message, or negative reputation vote to anyone.
Snapiti please pull me up if i start ramping; thanks.
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Snapiti, here are some tips to help you fit in a little better with the crowd here:
-Stop posting trades before or at the time you make them, especially ones which end up green at the close
-Try some pointless BS after-timing posts about how you sold stock XYZ two weeks ago before it went down in price, for variety add in that you spent the money on whatever luxury item pops into your head, or for extra zip say you reinvested it in whichever stock started going up at that time
-Remember when a stock is declining in value, only negative, very negative or neutral outlooks are allowed
-Instead of coherent grammar and properly constructed and thought out sentences, try random strings of dots, words in the wrong order, try replacing actual argument with ad hominem and non sequitur
Have a great day!
What I am saying is that it would have made sense for the regulator to just go straight to the FPP regime and save himself a lot of work. Especially given the inevitibility of being required to do it anyway. That's not asking him to engineer a price to suit Chorus.
Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;
I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interred with their bones;
So let it be with Caesar. The noble Brutus
Hath told you Caesar was ambitious:
If it were so, it was a grievous fault,
And grievously hath Caesar answer'd it.
Here, under leave of Brutus and the rest -
For Brutus is an honourable man;
So are they all, all honourable men -
Come I to speak in Caesar's funeral.
He was my friend, faithful and just to me:
But Brutus says he was ambitious;
And Brutus is an honourable man.
He hath brought many captives home to Rome
Whose ransoms did the general coffers fill:
Did this in Caesar seem ambitious?
When that the poor have cried, Caesar hath wept:
Ambition should be made of sterner stuff:
Yet Brutus says he was ambitious;
And Brutus is an honourable man.
You all did see that on the Lupercal
I thrice presented him a kingly crown,
Which he did thrice refuse: was this ambition?
Yet Brutus says he was ambitious;
And, sure, he is an honourable man.
I speak not to disprove what Brutus spoke,
But here I am to speak what I do know.
You all did love him once, not without cause:
What cause withholds you then, to mourn for him?
O judgment! thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason. Bear with me;
My heart is in the coffin there with Caesar,
And I must pause till it come back to me.
Viewed through the bottom of a rum glass that is one of the finest bits( i can't remember how to spell pieces) I have read today. I don't know what it means but that doesn't matter. I have a rellie -as I said before - who was into electronic communications from his first crystal set in primary school through uni and overseas scolarships to positions at the top and many projects from the islands to Mongolia to his retirement who advised me that CNU was not going to work, as least in its present form. Now I don't particularly like this rellie - he's a prize pric# but I know that he has forgotten more than most people know on this topic and he is being proved right at every turn. My simple advice to all those wishful thinkers out there - sell up for what you can get and buy TEL. It will take time but you will get your money back - eventually.
Interesting to hear Communication's Minister Amy Adams on the Nation this morning. It was a good interview I thought. Anyway, she said that CNU was doing an excellent job - hitting all their targets and ahead of schedule on the rollout. She said that after three years of experience, they have learnt lots of lessons and are really hitting their straps now. She expressed very directly and unambiguously her confidence in the organisation. She also said that, if we can get past this current situation, she's confident that the UFB rollout will be complete by 2020.
I thought it was a very illuminating interview - it must have gone on for a good 10 to 15 minutes. Did anyone else see it?
Mr Moose my dear forum friend, please feel free to also include what stocks are going to increase 200% (PEB) and around 100% (XRO) in the next three weeks so these people can make their losses back, if they feel inclined to turn paper losses into actual losses!
Snrs.
Can one person tell me return on capital now. Then after Diciembre 2014 lower pricing.
Moosie, thanks for your advice on CNU. Always interesting to see how people react to uncertainty in the market. Your approach is what I like to refer to as "rabbit investing". Short intense bursts of activity, running in a haphazard directionless motion and occasionally sticking your head up to see what everyone else is doing. Each to his own of course but every time I have taken this approach and sold out on bad news and panic attacks, the share has recovered and gone on to bigger and better things so I'm not convinced that I would be advising anything. That's the great thing about this game/business ...its not guaranteed and all activity is subject to factors outside of our control. Just to show a contrarian element, I am still buying CNU. Idiot? some would say but it comes down to belief and my publicly stated belief is CNU will emerge out the other side of this as a good long term investment. However I would not advise anyone else to follow this path...since its my path and not necessarily right for somebody else. Your guarantee that the grass is greener on the other side is unsubstantiated and another "moosieism" "trust me" ? I think not. But then I hardly trust myself :laugh:
Int poem PT , Caesar is Chorus and Brutus ,John key :)
Thanks for your thoughts all.
I fluked getting out near the top having to get some cash for Meridian float, phew!!.May it recover for those still in.
Sitting on the fence atp awaiting more news.
C'mon PT get with times...here's the modern translation
Shareholders, detractors, CHORUSmen and women, lend me your I-Pads;
I desire to connect with CNU, not to ignore them.
The evil sites that men visit live on in the cache;
The good sites are left on the favourites.
So let it be with CNU. The nobbly kneed Ratcliffe
hath agreed CNU is ambitious:
If it is so, it is a necessary fault,
And grievously hath CNU been punished for it.
Here, with the permission of Ratcliffe and the team-
for Mark is a straight up guy;
So are they all, all good team players-
Come I to speak at the Chorus funeral.
They are my friends, faithful with their dividends:
Ratcliffe is an honourable CEO
And agrees he is ambitious.
He has laid fibre to many a home and business
And charged a fair and going rate:
Isn't this what Chorus was designed for?
When the Con Com have cried, Chorus has complained:
Business needs to be a strict and stern profit driver:
Yet Ratcliffe is ambitious
And Ratcliffe is an honourable man;
You all did see that at the AGM:
I speak not to doubt what Chorus maintains
but here we are to proclaim what we all do know
You all do want to connect with UFB
so why now do you mourn its imminent demise?
Oh judgement, clouded by Con Com declarations,
causes SP palpitations. Get over it;
My loss is in the dunny there with CNU
And I must wait till it comes back to me.
Hi there fellow posters,First time poster but intense long term reader of all posts on this forum I won't go into my roller coaster ride since converting all my fixed interest investments to shares earlier this year but needless to say if I had been more patient I would be sitting on around 300k more in my bank account now one example would be putting in a 200k share order in for PEB just after the 2nd announcement and being at the top of the bid list at 79 to 81c only to have someone jump ahead of me by 1 cent I cancelled my order but could have scooped up my whole 200k by paying 85c and you can work out how much profit I would have had selling the next morning at around 1.70. That's just one example but my current dillema is that I own 118k CNU shares at a purchase price of 2.88 and based on Fridays share price I'm sitting on a paper loss of 105k I sold my Summerset temporarily to whizz over and collect the large CNU dividend intending to resell half of them and go back to Summerset but alas that week the nutty internet coalition and media frenzy started against CNU (I sold my ryman a couple of weeks ago and bought Summerset back) I'm looking for genuine opinions and help on my situation, I'm feeling encouraged to read Birmanboys last post as I recall he also held more than 100k CNU shares (Is this correct) I noticed most of the posters selling up only held small parcels and would only incur small losses unlike my massive potential loss, I already lost 21k earlier in the year on CNU by trying that old sell at a loss to buy back cheaper trick unfortunately the share price never dropped but only went up until now(I made most of this back on a white knuckle ride with Xro for a month or so but it was a nervy ride) Mossie I noticed a while back you were encouraging members on a couple of occaisions to go out and buy CNU shares but you seem to done a 360 turn now, I have also emailed John Key outlining our situation and that we purchased our shares to support the UFB rollout and get some good dividends along the way and that there would be a strong response to a negative com com decision which has in my opinion not occurred as earlier stated by the Government (the we will override the com com back in June is equal to ramping up the share price IMHO) Anyway this has been a rather long winded intro on my behalf but when your suffering a lot of pain you tend to get long winded, thanks in advance people for your replies.
Hi Couta, It is very difficult to make recommendations when not knowing the full financial circumstances around someones investing . Just a casual observation, you seem to have quite a bit of money involved here. However I think you haven't worked out a trading/ investing style as yet.To jump out of a long term hold like a Ryman or SUM to pick up a dividend is a very risky strategy. If it is risk you are after why are you in stable things like retirement homes ? Not sure if you are online or via a broker, but it might be worth talking to a reputable broker to get better execution . Also forget the profit you may have made be selling PEB @ 1.70 I think only 500 traded there so you couldn't have got all that volume out at the top of the market...If you are a believer in them it's never too late to buy. happy punting S/L
Hi Stop loss, thanks for your reply I use direct broking now after having been with a broker for a few years and paying too much in fees, yes I have a 1mill portfolio which contains Sum/Peb/Dil/Sli/Cnu/ttk/snk/mrp I'm running at a paper loss on most of them eg purchased Dil at 7.16 each but will hold as I believe it will bounce back same as ttk bought at 2.80 etc yes I've made quite a few mistakes to date by trying different strategies due to my impulsive enthusiastic nature but my Cnu dillema has bought me to my senses to take a different approach so that trades don't become investments and investments trades, my wife and I have both been associated with the retirement sector for 20 years (No we don't work for any of the big 3 but do work in these facilities hence our investment in them) thanks again
Thanks Mossie, I liken myself to you but an older version and actually went out and purchased more SNK shares because of your enthusiasm a few months ago but I'm not holding it against you (when is moose hunting season by the way) as I have come to believe that they will do well and only have 50k shares purchased at 13c, I believe you could do well as a trader but as I have now realised I would have a lot more money sitting in my portfolio to date had a let things sit instead of jumping around like a startled rabbit, thanks
Hi Couta, a traumatic first post there but good on you for sharing your stress. Everyone will have either experienced your pain first hand or something like it or will experience it in the future in all probability. First thing to point out is that it is, as you recognise only a paper loss at the moment and whether you choose to transfer it into an Actual loss should be a matter for some patient consideration rather than an emotional stress produced desperate response. There are many "investors' who bail out at the first sign of trouble and probably fewer who decide to ride out the volatility and "noise" that is always there in any sharemarket. Yes I do have a sizeble portion but am still buying. There are many who say this type of 'averaging down" investing is just foolhardy, stubborn and wish fulfilment but all I can tell you its worked for me on any number of occasions and helped reduce my average holding costs of course. Now I suppose eventually I am going to get burnt and my faith will be my undoing but if you choose basically sound companies this is a low probability. I certainly would not encourage averaging down on any company other than blue chips. Is CNU a "blue chip"? I believe it is and once it gets through the current tangle this will be apparent. Also remember that the dividend is an excellent return on your capital. Its possible that one of the negotiating/debates/discussions will force the dividend down to placate the ComCom but even if they halve the dividend its going to return you 4.4% plus imput crd on your capital. All is not lost...however if you sell out at a low..it is lost and will take a lot of time to recover. So its not any easy decision. How would you feel if in 6 months it had returned to $3 ? As someone said if you are not sure..sometimes better to sit on your hands a bit. Other posters will have differing views of course but ultimately it comes back to you and you should make your own decision based on the information at hand and not on rumours, speculation and others peoples 'firmly held" suggestions. I should point out that this type of scenario is why I am a firm believer in being diversified. No matter how good or lucky you are everyone will become immersed in a s**tstorm at some point in their investment life. Don't make quick decisions...let it sit and ponder the possibilities. Good luck.
Thanks Birmanboy, Yes on Friday I sat and watched the price drop to $1.85 from$2.10 and it took all my will power to not bail out(Felt too depressed to go to work) II've calculated if I had all my Summer sets and Rymans I would be sitting on 150k more in my portfolio than I have by moving over to snatch that CNU dividend hopefully my mistakes can help others not to be so impulsive, thanks
How did you make your capital?
I don't think you should be investing in the sharemarket.
I would contact Pie Funds,phone [09] 4861761 or call 1/495 Lake Road,Takapuna,Auckland,before you lose more of your capital,and get professional advice.
Loses will affect you health.
Must be approaching another market collapse if couta typical of whats going on (sorry mate)
I knew a guy who got transferred in his job .... 1987.... sold his expensive home .... and put the proceeds into the stock market .... safe as they told him .... had a good couple of weeks ..... and then essentially wiped out because he was in the hyped up shares .... and when the prices collapsed on that Black Tuesday his broker said it's only a blip and now the shares are really cheap ..... so he bought even more ..... and more ..... the last time I saw him he was still renting
No worries though couta .... this time is different
Did you swap from fixed interest because you thought the returns were too low and the share market would give you those better returns? but you portfolio has a few specs in it as well so maybe you were after something a lot bigger rather than dividend yields higher than the banks?
http://www.tv3.co.nz/tabid/3692/MCat/2910/Default.aspx
Amy Adams on the Nation. Watch from 7 minutes onwards. Very interesting interview.
Thanks Percy,I made my capital through hard work and having a total portfolio of fixed interest investments until Feb this year when I switched most of it over to shares, I also borrowed 150k on mortgage at 5.99 for 5 years which I did on advise and because I could pay it back any time was considered a good decision as you can claim a 1/3 of interest of your tax so when you consider retirement stock return and dividends from the likes of cnu 5.99 minus 1/3 is not difficult to make backlus more,thanks
Hi Winner, I switched from fixed term because I believed there was more potential for capital gain than from fixed term and because I've always been an all out type of person and have succeeded in sports etc and if I hadn't have gone over to CNU would not be seeking such desperate help as I would have been quite happy to have 70% plus of my portfolio tied up in Ryman and Summer set and doubling my money in 5 years(make that tripling in Summer sets case) thanks
Hi Couta1....Sorry to hear your predicament. I've been there as we'll, maybe not so deep in dodo, but probably most on this forum have had the same experience. Judging by your post it maybe indicates your investing strategy could almost fall into you being a trader, this would enable you to adjust losses against your income, therefore reducing your tax liability. I dont believe anyone can or could predict where this one will go. In a lot of cases like this it is easier to sell off say half and get into something else that you consider to be a better investment, this then enables you to utilise the funds in a more productive manner, but of course still watching like a hawk. Similiar to Moosie900.
One rule I adhere to is not to have all eggs in one asset class.
Note: Do your own research on any strategy you take.
Man, sorry to be brutal, but you have certainly screwed up. I guess the bright side is you haven't found Hot Copper and lost the lot.
My only advice is steer clear of any advice you get on here, despite some of it being with honest intent. The fact is no one here is qualified to provide you with advice. Its illegal, and a few of the more vocal ones here are sailing close to the wind with FMA.
Sign up with a reputable AFA fast, and spend some money on professional advice. Be prepared to spend many hours with them initially, to enable them to understand your requirements and tolerances.
this forum has a significant amount of credible RESEARCH, but people following calls on here do so at their peril.
this advice is not meant to be 'advice' advice, just advice
Hi Couta1, as I mentioned in another thread, I burnt 20k NZD to learn my first lesson on ASX, and ouch Hot Copper of course. At that time I was a Uni student and 20k is all the money I have. So it's not the end of the world. Do cheer up! As a trader, you can learn from Moosie (seems he is doing pretty well), but be careful to follow a trader's advice on a public forum. When a trader say BUY, it means he has bought and prepared to take profit (on you); when a trader say SELL, it means he has sold.
Another thing is, if I have 20k cash, I could put them all into the market. If I lose all, then let it be. But if I have 1m cash, I will only put half of it into share market.
I think you have to weigh up
the opportunity cost of the brokerage vs the missed trade .... PETER Lynch ( beating the street) talks about people working in the big malls. They know GAP, Nike , Wal Mart are doing well as they can see the foot traffic. So invest in something you know about . It would appear to me you would have good knowledge on the retirement sector .You don't have to be in the latest greatest , Boring can be good .
Sorry if it's me. Yes my email address is a telecom one. I worked for Telecom for 1 year and have left for almost one year. I never worked for Chorus.
I have one post on Tel thread long time ago and 2 posts on CNU. None of them is about analysis of the TEL/CNU itself i think..
I tried to modify my email address, but seems it's quite hard. so let it be. LOL
Cheers, ZYMWH
Thanks all you guys that have posted to help me so far what I'm looking for is what people would do sitting on this loss of this size in their opinion and its seems the con census so far is to sit and wait it out or maybe sell half and go elsewhere I consider myself mainly an investor but some holdings which I purchased short term have become investments eg sli due to share price drop the other thing is for every cent less I sell my cnu for is equal to lossing over $1000 so picking any exit would be tough to time as I could lose over $10k selling 10c lower, yes xerof I guess I have screwed up but only because of bad entry timing, the nutty media bleaters rantings a few days after my purchase but if I sold my total portfolio with all its losses tomorrow I would still have a large bank balance, I await John Keys response to my email keenly
Once again thanks everyone I'm going to crawl back into my cave now its been good to share the pain I'll let you know what I end up doing and will come and and offer some advise on the retirement sector in which I have knowledge in many aspects of that may be of help to someone on this thread in the future
Couta my advice for you is to pick up a copy of "The Intelligent Investor" by Benhamin Graham and if your current predicament hasn't put you off the sharemarket you may want to consider ETFs like smartshares for a bit more diversification in lower risk companies.
Holding onto CNU isn't investment in my opinion, it's a gamble - not to say you should sell it but I think the clarification needs to be made.
Thanks Grand Huber no I haven't been put off the share market and I'm kicking myself for selling out on a big block of my retirement stock which I still consider one of the safest sectors to invest in in NZ with huge growth potential, my decision now is to stick with chorus or sell some and head back to that sector but as Birmanboy said how would I feel if CNU was back at $3 In 6 month but then I may make all that loss back in Ryman or Sum over a year a tough decision to make
Just for the record....I am self employed, no connection to Telecom or Chorus.
I dont have much time to read the Forum except for the odd weekends.
Cheers
Hi Moosie I'm mearnt to be back in my cave but are so thankful for the support I've had today even from the slightly harder comments, yes before I went over to grab that CNU dividend nearly 80% of my portfolio was in Ryman and Summer set unfortunately Ryman has bolted nearly a dollar per share since I sold and as well as selling out my CNU for big loss would now have to pay a lot more and get a lot less Ryman shares back than I had ,still if I stick with CNU that's means I've got 50% of my portfolio in growth(SUM) 40% in dividends CNU/TTK/MRP/ZEL and 10% in Specs PEB/DIL/SNK/SLI now that I look at its not a bad strategy either the CNU portion is the critical pivot with it being 75% of my dividend paying portion I can't help think doing some basic sums that in 5 years time a near total portfolio in retirement sector stock will outstrip any dividend paying mix with only investments in the tech stocks outdoing the retirement sector, thoughts anyone?
Hey couta, I'm kinda in a similar situation to you now with CNU.
I think there's a good chance the retirement sector (RYM, SUM, MET) will outstrip most high dividend stocks in 5yrs, in particular CNU. That would depend on how Chorus come out of this mess.
Maybe after the independent review is carried out, if it is found Chorus is financially sound enough to carry on their operations, the ComCom copper price remains and Chorus dividend is slashed or cut altogether, which would dump the share price even more.
Or maybe the independent review reveals Chorus really is strapped for cash if ComCom copper price remains and government intervenes with whatever measures they have, which would help boost the share price back to previous levels.
I really don't know what's going to happen, it's anybody's guess. I'm holding and waiting for clarity.
I was watching the Chorus AGM webcast from 30/10, which was only 6 days before the ComCom decision. Quite surprisingly during the QA session, nobody asked any questions relating to the upcoming ComCom decision or anything about Chorus' financial position with regards to this situation. The only question asked was why the annual report was so big. I can imagine if the AGM were held 7-10 days later, after the share price tanked, the board would have been getting alot of serious questions!
Something I'd like to know is, why was this independent review not done sooner? If the general consensus was that ComCom was sticking to its draft copper pricing or thereabouts, then why wait to do it after ComCom makes their final decision? Sure the price isn't set until Dec 2014, but I feel things can be done sooner or in parallel.
Anyways, judging from Mark Radcliffe's reply to Amy Adams, he seems pretty open to this review, so I'm hoping for a good outcome.
for any among us with barely two brain cells to rub together i would highly recommend the work Buffett et al (the creepy stooge who claimed to care deeply about the tax rate of his secretary after apparently remaining deathly silent on the subprime crisis he was cashing in on at the very same time his Democratic Party brethren were steadfastly and resolutely refusing any and all calls for investigation of Fannie and Freddie and all things connected)
if you believe his bedtime stories you would have loved the equally bright Oprah/CNBC financial shill (I forget her name and to be fair she was one of many) desperately urging the retail market to sell, ahead of the post inauguration institutional and insider open season, what Rahm Emmanuel might describe as the opportunity of crisis.
Just reading back in this thread for the posts since the CNU drop, including the administrators post about representatives of CNU and TEL posting on this thread is fascinating. I havent seen anything that I would attribute to the companies concerned and as to a suggestion that information posted is illegal is stretching a long bow. It is illegal set up to give financial advice for reward but no one here is asking payment for their advice. People who seek advice here or who listen to opinions proferred take a risk. The first question must always be "Can I afford it" and it goes on from there - if you wake up in the morning broke, then you just start again. To clarify any comments I may have made in the CNU debate. I had a pile of CNU allocated and I did not like the model very much. I have a relative who is technically a top expert in telecommunications in NZ.(He is retired but still involved internationally) His view was that the likely take up of fibre by the public was nowhere near the levels needed for profitability and for that reason I sold out early. Another reasoon; Comparisons are made with other countries, lets say the UK. Great Britain has fifteen potential customer for every one NZ has - NZ is nearly two-and-a-half times the length of mainland GB - NZ has ranges of alps all over the place plus Cook Strait in the middle. Now with one-fifteenth of the potential costomer base of GB and even broader ratios for other countries, making a profit is a lot harder here
Snapiti I liked your response to Xerof above you are so right in 2007 I put 10k into 5 different finance companies via Chris Lee, Hanover,United,Strategic,St Laurence and Dorchester and you know the outcome of all those only getting my 10 k back from Dorchester the rest I received a few k back in total. Jay Riggs as each day goes by I the more think Chorus and its shareholders have been let down by the Government listening to all those minority bleaters and a dinasour called the comcom
Hi Couta......just being reading thru all the advice and comments on your dilemma........most of us here understand and have experienced where you are sitting at the moment .....it's not a nice place to be and my heart goes out to you. The game we play is a dangerous one.....we are totally at the mercy of the traders, perceptions, whims, B****e, traders (night and day), market sentiment, profit downgrades/upgrades etc etc... In essence we have almost zero control on our investments. To this degree I personally treat the sharemarket with the disrepect it deserves..........I treat it as a dangerous game. I dont believe it should be like this, but the chances of getting "burnt" are very high in my opinion.
The only advice I can offer you is this........have you thought about declaring yourself to IRD as a trader and thus you can claim your losses (shud you decide to take them), declare your profits (have you made any?) ,........and then move on. Just a thought. You might find this approach offers some degree of comfort so you can change tack in regards your investments....and remember......." NEVER LOOK BACK, YOU'LL ONLY GET A SORE NECK"!!
Couta1 you are a victim of the market cycle and you will not be alone.....basically put..when the market is perceived to be "safe" ..the very conservative investor finally yields to temptation after watching for years from the sidelines ...These investors which you are one are the last investor group to enter this market ..
Below is a fantastic article....read it...It deals with market (investor) behaviour ...you will find yourself in this article together with all the other ST posters behaviours...Knowing what drives the market place and relying less on all the other media crap makes you a smarter investor...
http://www.psgonline.co.za/resources...yfromthemasses
Snrs.
Can one person tell me CNU return on capital now. Then after Diciembre 2014 lower pricing.
Gracias
The Coppertax lobby group is pretty powerful. From all sides of the political spectrum. National is running scarred. Protecting it's political capital is not the first priority anymore. Wish there was some more clarity.
The "copper tax lobby group" is already discredited by virtue of the fact that it has become obvious that they have no intention of passing on the benefit of the price reduction. Having Sue Chetwin front the group has created the misconception that they represent the consumers. Sue Chetwin looks like a stooge for the retailers.
My take away from the interview is that if CNU will actually be in bad shape at the proposed copper prices as determined by the pending independent review, firstly ( she says) CNU would have to take some action themselves, and to me that means a sharp reduction in dividend and a cash issue.
Secondly ( she says) the Government would look at the contract and ease some of the provisions to make it easier for CNU. I have no idea what what they would be. Thirdly, (she says) if needed the Government would intervene and Adams stated more than once that a $5 reduction in copper price versus a $10 reduction may be palatable enough to ensure the job is done.
My view is that these three options will be employed. Shareholders will be seen to be contributing (after all CNU tendered for this thing) the copper/internet users will be contributing in the interests of the future of UFB, and the tax payer won't be seen to be stumping up cash to bail out a listed company.
As to where this leaves the CNU shareprice, I would say quite weak until CNU's capital structure is sorted out, and then eventually dependent on CNUs on going performance and how much of their financial viability they have managed to obfuscate or keep hidden from the investigation.
If I was holding CNU I would probably continue holding at around two bucks but certainly with the possibility of more downside. I don't think the Government will fix this without the shareholders taking a hit. Whether they consider they have taken a big enough hit already is a mute point. If so there is probably upside. If not, look out below.
Disc. Sold out at higher levels. Too much uncertainty for me, but at some level they will be good value. I think it's too hard to determine that level at the moment.
While I agree with much of your comment, my personal opinion is that she is not entirely in the camp of Chorus. Both in her comments on Friday and in the TV3 Nation interview (at about 10 mins 22 seconds in) she states that "first and foremost" they will be looking at whether Chorus can adjust its own business operations to absorb any shortfall on funding the UFB roll out. To me the most obvious way that Chorus could do this would be to cut their dividend and, based on Amy Adam's comments, I think the Government would expect Chorus to cut the dividend entirely before they would be prepared to do anything like overrule the Com Com, lend money to Chorus, or buy a stake in Chorus.
I bought a small bundle of Chorus shares a few months ago, primarily for the high dividend, planning to hold long-term, and knowing there was regulatory risk coming. I felt at the time that the Government would do more to intervene if the Com Com's decision was at the low end. SO far the Government's response has not been to my satisfaction and given that I now believe the dividend will be the first thing to go I sold my very small holding on Friday at a loss. As a fairly young investor I'm starting to look more at growth companies and with a very limited amount of money available to invest I'm not keen on having any of it tied up in shares that are embroiled in regulatory limbo. I'm planning to put the money into stocks that I hope will give a better return in the next year or so. :)
http://www.psgonline.co.za/resources...yfromthemasses
Thanks Hoop it covers so much and is great for general lifeskills as well. I can see straight away that shorter term trading isnt for me, other than small flutters. I dont have thediscipline and memory for one. Most of the articles are also great for general life skill living. The psychology side very int; re how we justify things. crowd behavior, not wanting to crystalise a loss and convincing others that our position is right when it aint.
Re "conservative investors being one of the last to enter the mkt". this is suggesting the mkt is geting frothy maybe a pullback coming?. i note again Craigs long term PE's rresearch saying NZ and Aus are above wheras most of the rest of the world are still below their long term PE's. Cheers
I know very little about all this
Will cnu actually own the ufb when it completed ...or are they just the contractors laying it
CNU's up a little today. Dead cat bounce?
yep...:):D ...General rule of thumb "don't try to catch falling knives"..I tell everyone this...however experienced investors can make money in this situation by seeing things that normal investors can't...However the risk can still be dire.....I made an absolute meal out of my jumping in the other day I misread then mistimed my entry at 2.16..I then did a no no by deciding to ignore my stop because of the panic selling is often not the time to sell ....and $many,000's down on paper and hemorrhaging...the pattern was still there so I decided to enter again at 192 ... timed it a lot better this time but don't get all the shares I wanted....amazingly after all the f-ups I am now square...the basic lesson 1 rules I broke were many....
Now compare that with my other play..CAV... I did everything by the book with CAV bought in more at the recent 185 break on a rising trend and now I'm suffering a bigger loss than CNU....go figure???...eh
Thanks Hoop for your reading advice earlier I've been watching CNU all morning agonising over whether to sell out or not if I knew the dividend was to be cut in total that would be the decider as who wants a large sum of dead money sitting there until 2020 and beyond
Hoop in your personal opinion do you think the slight rebound today may not continue and the price could head south until clarity arrives,fhaks
Understand Snapiti maybe I could ask how long these dead cat bounces normally last a day or more than that, thanks
About 5 months or 1000 thread posts ago I crunched some numbers and pointed out that ComCom decisions could have a devastating effect on CNU profits and the ability to fund their work.
Unfortunately this has come to pass. Whilst it is all well and good to believe that the cavalry will come and rescue CNU at some point in the future it is only one possible outcome.
I have re-crunched my numbers and have come up with a current value for CNU of $1.61.
So at the moment I still would not touch this as an investment with a light sabre.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Thanks PT . I have scrolled back through many threads looking for one which i think gave 3 scenarios best med and worst re pricing; maybe sparky put it up. seems the "worst " was too optimistic.
There's a NBR article saying chorus ufb speed is useless .......and that the much adored and admired Amy Adams should be looking at whether they are actually performing in the rollout contract ....rather than whether they go broke or not
if you are looking for clarity the first thing you need to do is stop asking us for our opinion. Clarity will arrive only when the participants finally hammer out a deal....that could be months or it could be weeks. None of us know any more than you about the future. The pressure you are under is making you feel nervous and obviously putting you in the position of believing a decision needs to be made. The problem is you (we) don't have enough information. Everybody has a different agenda and investing profile and none of us know what yours is or means to you. Don't wish to be harsh but everybody is trying to help in their own way, which is predicated on themselves and how they operate. To me this is probably adding to your predicament. On one hand not enough information and the other too many opinions. If it was me I would stop posting and concentrate on you and your goals and your own investing profile. If you haven't discovered what that is then its a good time to think about it.
Thanks Birmanboy I have just completely exited CNU for a 100k loss thank you to all genuine posters who have offered help over the last day what finally made my mind up was the possibility of a complete dividend cut as well as a suppressed share price for an extended period of time, I feel the Government has let us down with there weak response to the com com decision after they ramped up the share price with their strong well deal to the com com rhetoric,I will be emailing the PM again to let him know the effect our selling due to uncertainty will have on our retirement and now having to work a couple of years to get back to where we were, also thanks Snapiti for that private concern hope the dogs okay lm a bit animal lover I think they can teach us a lot about genuine love and care for others
Great thanks winner. I never considered the Div being dropped altogether :ohmy: for a while as a poss scenario too! Strategy of a 5 year hold seemed great at the time. Still fence sitting. cheers
Hoop and charting and their fantasy magic lines wouldn't have a clue! Anything their chicken entrails say, is likely to be totally upset, 180 degrees, by some announcement from the government. Be patient and sit on your hands.
Only if u r totally undiversified should you be panicking!
I see Chris Lee thinks CNU will come right eventually but with more appropriate dividends how much lower can you go than a potential zero ?
Sorry, "price targets" not relevant here i suppose, just give me the actual prices then. Thanks in advance.
Hi Stu , I looked at all posters comments offered to me, studied every media report for the last month, watched Amy Adams on the Nation etc but once I realised there is every possibility that the dividend could be severely cut or suspended for how knows how long I thought how much am I missing out by having dead money sitting here, I'm not blaming John Key for my choices but I feel the Government ramped up the stock earlier in the year after its first big decline but stating strongly they would override the com com decision but now that is one of many options and only if Chorus hasn't got enough money after cutting dividends and altering capital management etc etc . I think Chorus is also getting the rough end of the stick and are a good company but this thing is a traders and speculators paradise st the moment and who knows how low it will go, the other reason I sold out is I wasn't getting any work done(self employed) not sleeping and feeling lousy just watching the share price all day being an intense all or nothing kind of person ,waiting till Christmas for an indication of where this things headed would have caused me a lot of personal suffering, of course loosing $100k has its own kind of suffering but I'll accept it in a while and move on but of course it will be something I'll never forget and has taught me some serious lessons
best of luck to you Couta
broken my rule to check share trader during the week. I'm using someone else's tablet and can't use it properly.
However, one post that had revelance and made me think quite hard about cnu was #892.....reading .....cost for each fibre install is costing $1600 vs forecast average of $900-$1100
(I can't verify this figure but it was enough for me to move on long ago). In my world no entity can survive or pay very good dividends based on that information.
Back to my real job....work
Charting CNU shows that since May 2012 it has spent more time below its 90 day moving av. Not a good trend. It could one day be a turn around stock, but will need good news to excite investors in a tricky political environment. Disc. Never held... just watchin.
Seems to me that the simplest thing for the government to do is to insist that the ComCom complete the First Pricing Principal review in a prescribed (and short) time. And to give them the resources to do the exercise. This review requires the copper price to be set taking account of the cost of building a new network from scratch. It will almost certainly come to an answer that works for Chorus and its shareholders.
Why the hell would it take two years to carry out this exercise as is being claimed?
The legislation requires comcom to make "best efforts" to have this completed by 1 Dec 2014
.......yea/na good call LOTTO. That makes for pretty scary reading alright, makes you wonder?..........and Im wondering if this really is just a pseudo company that's being propped up (read subsidized) by the govt. to do this roll-out, then that's it......good night nurse. What are the longterm prospects....do they in fact have any??
Those linear regression channels are fascinating
CNU been in a steady downtrend since September last year, at a rate of 0.1% a day (quite a lot over 400 days)
Each time the Comm Comm has come out with bad news the price has fallen to the bottom channel line (1.4 std dev from main trend) --- spooky eh when it has happened 3 times now
So from here -- maybe back to $2.40 (the trend line) in 30 days time .... although if things are looking a bit cheerier maybe a bit higher
Can't dismiss the fact that shareprice has been declining for so long it probably will continue to do so .... even of there is a positive outcome .... then performance counts.
My considered opinion .... doubt whether you will see $2.80 again
So couta1 - maybe should have waited a week or so and reduced your losses by $40k
Yes Winner maybe but maybe I should have sold out at 2.65 a couple of weeks ago for a 25k loss, thing is this last week has totally surprised everybody especially the Govts weak cup of tea reaction this thing could get much worse yet and could end up getting retendered after all the other two companies involved are rolling out faster broadband than CNU according to latest herald article no this thing is too hot to handle even traders should be wary
You'd do much better reading Whale Oil and other relevant blogs (is Trans Tasman still going?) than you do producing your silly TA lines into infinity.
Don't knock it, Major.
Paying attention to those regression lines over the last few months would have kept potential buyers from premature action!
:cool:
Please tell me people what Regression lines could have predicted the Govts insipid response to the com com decision ,if they had said this things getting rolled and we are going to change legislation to override com com pricing do you the share would be where it is now more likely it would have a 3 in front of it remember also Amy Adams stated the other day that CNUs dividend payouts are the business of chorus and their shareholders if we (Govt) don't have to get involved, that quite a loaded statement in my opinion. Disc-National Supporter
Couta1,
I understand the pain you have been through and I hope you take some lessons from it and I suspect that being the all or nothing kind of person you come across as they will be different to the lessons I would take. I too was attracted to the dividend yield CNU offered but TBH any investment involving a company responsible for a political football such as this one had way too much risk for me. I mean, does anybody actually believe a politician? I honestly believe ours, on average, are the best, on average, in the world, but I would not trust them with my money!!
Anyway, good luck from here and I too am a fan of our retirement sector listings!
P.S. Percy types faster than me!
couta - those linear regression lines show that for over 300 trading days the CNU share price has been trending down at about 0.1% per day (ouch)
What does the shareprice reflect at any time? The sentiment of the overall market, the net effect of those who think it is a good story and those who think otherwise.
For the price to driftt down for so long there has to be reasons why the net sentiment is negative. In CNU case probably the risk of regulatary impositions and the overall performmance of CNU as well. As time has marched on how they are doing is becoming clearer and this no doubt is not making many punters as confident as they may have been in the past. No doubt many other reasons as well but for 300 plus days the sentiment has been negative eh, no matter how cheap it has appeared to some.
Those linear regression lines did not predict any Com Com decisions - but they gave a pretty strong indication as to what might happen if it was not what people wanted to hear. Each time the price has fallen to the bottom channel line, a calculated number based on previous prices and variability about the average.
So it was no surprise that when a bad announcement came the price fell below $2.conversely if there had been a good announcement the price probably would have gone to or above the top line at just under $3.
The downward trend is saying that there are risks with holding CNU - at least more people thought so than those who thought otherwise. I would also contend that if there was going to be good news this would probably have shown up in the chart and the trend reversed which would have made all previous trends lines irrelevant.
I use these sort of charts a lot both to keep out of down trending stocks that I am interested in as well as staying in up trending stocks. They are good for medium to long traders like me (a trade can last for many years as long as they are trending up). Have a look at the DLX one on the ASX thread and if I have time I'll put the RYM one up as well - both good stories,
I have no idea where CNU is going to end up .... all I know it is trending down and that means don't buy .... and I'll be pissed off if they get bailed out by your government.
TA was optional, I was lead to believe you'd be using an old DIL chart and some tracing paper, though I suppose you could just scribble over the top of the dates, SP and ticker.
Followed your advice and asked the first "anyone" I encountered (in this case one of the cleaners) about the upcoming major bear mauling, she asked "based on what news? last weeks??!!" I said "not sure, but someone said you'd know". Her normal pleasant expression dropped and she said "maybe I should be doing your job and you and your friend should be emptying the bins", I said "don't shoot the messenger, but you may have a point". We laughed.
So it closed today at 2.01 and your saying it could go below 2.00 at some point tomorrow? I'll look out for that, don't think anyone else will see it coming.
And 1.70? But only if it follows the channel. If not then it won't. And all without TA, good stuff.
All joking aside though, let's assume your 2.00 to near 1.70 range for the next what, month? Then what?
Snapiti buying at 1.90 (if he didn't sell for a 10% profit the next day) and below would still place him with shares in this range which would be almost impossible to get after any positive govt response (and obviously impossible to get now). Given the ComCom cut news is known and not expected to get worse, apart from "it's going down so it will keep going down until it forms a shape like an candle-shaped egg cup with a cat in it", what catalysts do you see?
What do we know about this 'independent review?' Who will be running it? It will be interesting to see how independent it is.
Couta, I'm sure insipid is the right word for the govt response, they have constraints they have to work within which involves not only time and process but also consideration.
Not sure your decision to sell ALL your shares was the right one but who knows. If you sold to avoid all the stress then fair enough but I don't think stewing over it now is helping either, enjoy your remaining 200K, maybe diversify it more this time across shares, cash and things more enjoyable, good luck.
Hi Stu,Thanks for support, I have to admit I didn't realise the big affect losing all that money would have on me in different ways its taking me a while to get back to my normal life and wanting to get out and enjoy normal exercise, normal sleep etc but guess in a way its like a relationship breakup everyone works through these things in their own way and own time, yes I'm being very careful with that remaining money bought a few ryman ,some ZeL and the rest is just sitting for now