Should have asked one of the more senior of the other 10 people working on the deal. They would have had a better tip for you, BUY SUM MET :D
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I agree with Beagle....MET is different ..they have hard assets..n generate good revenue
Closed at 638 - not too far away from the offer price! To quote Winner "That's good".
No sure what your angle is on this one. Completely different industries, the relevance is what ?
Every other relevant industry player trades at a minimum premium to NTA of at least ~ 20%, most a heck of a lot more mate. Not sure how you could realistically suggest the board of MET could be considered to have lofty expectations to simply expect a minimum bid of at the very least current NTA as at 31 December 2019 ? How is that price expectation unrealistic especially given there are three interested parties ?
Good to see patience starting to reap rewards, up 26 cents today. The more patient one is, the more rewards will come, in my opinion.
Hey winner these a better bet than that dog horse you mentioned, never had a win at the races as big as the gain on my MET today, just as well I'm not a gambler.
Twenty six trades at 6.38 in the minute of trade, what's that about?
I'd agree but would change the "never" to "rarely".
Would anyone be willing to buy more at this stage?
Too late now....it will another offer coming up this Monday....
I think that's more likely BUT on the other hand given the size of the deal it wouldn't surprise me if one of Jarden's top investment bankers, (to try and earn a really HUGE Christmas bonus) isn't trying to broker price agreement between the buyer and major shareholders this weekend and an improved offer could be forthcoming before Christmas. Maybe, but I am not holding my breath for that. The interested party will know they're not the only one interested and $7.25 is still a very good price for the buyer (for current strong market conditions and very good prospects for 2020 and beyond in this sector).
At $7.25 they are buying a company that has grown earnings at an average rate of 15% per annum over the last five years and for most of that time the Auckland market was flat. They'd be paying about 15 times earnings for 15% average growth, a PEG ratio of just 1.0. That is cheap no matter how you slice and dice it but with somewhat (I put this as kindly as possible, "uncharismatic") leadership in recent times major shareholders might be happy to accept $7.25. I think that's the price the deal gets done or very close to that. Its possibly worth a bit more but there has to enough meat left on the bone for the acquirer to chew on otherwise they won't bite.
Fact remains, it closed up 26 cents on four times the usual volume. Monday could be very interesting or very boring, one or the other lol.
Spooky possums, the dog's nose for a feed seems to be still working pretty well http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...494/314594.pdf Hopefully the hard working investment bankers at least get Christmas day off to enjoy with their families.
Balance also predicted this correctly and said the first offer is NEVER the last offer. Hat tip to you mate.
Am I reading this right that there's now another party that has placed an indicative takeover offer, thoughts folks ? I highlight the word "and" because it would appear that not only do they have a higher offer from the first credible buyer but there appears to be another offer from a third party, apparently referring to another bidder ?
If there's two active bidders might we get upwards of $7.50 ?Quote:
MET has received a further revised non-binding indicative proposal to acquire MET and has substantially negotiated a scheme implementation agreement (SIA) with a third party. However, the SIA has not yet been executed pending confirmatory financial due diligence.
It’s all go this time - hope we know how much by Christmas
Following MET’s announcement on 19 December 2019, MET has received a further revised non-binding indicative proposal to acquire MET and has substantially negotiated a scheme implementation agreement (SIA) with a third party. However, the SIA has not yet been executed pending confirmatory financial due diligence.
Well couta....trading halt....u said u doubted about it?
Looks like were in the money winner, no need to back dog horses over the holiday period, Beagle has earned himself a few more free ski lessons and a trip to the bar of his choice in Queenstown.
Friend of mine once said, there's no need to bark when you've got a good dog :) Merry Christmas folks, I am glad a few of my mates joined in the rabbit hunt and proud to lead the hunt on this one. The barking was fierce and justified :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjz73dv9EEI
Stood out like a dog's genital appendage when aggressive buying came in after 'rejected' bid.
Sorry, Beagle, but that's an analogy I must use which hopefully compliments rather than offends you.
Directors have said they have obtained valuation in excess of $8.00 + but that's also a negotiating tactic.
The major shareholders hold the key to a bid succeeding and I believe last valuation plus a 5% premium will secure the deal - so $7.30.
No offence taken mate and agree 100% it was always a given a better offer would be forthcoming. I agree and see it most likely to happen at about the $7.25 I have bene predicting for quite some time now.
SUM might be wondering where the ~ one and a half billion in cash from this potential takeover might be reinvested ? As always I have barked my opinion clearly in the appropriate thread :)
Hope “However, the SIA has not yet been executed pending confirmatory financial due diligence.” means the due diligence has actually been done and just needs the final sign off
Dotting "I's" and crossing "T's" exercise I would think.
I think the little birdie who told me it must start with a "7" has been right all along.
Lets all play the game of what's the final takeover price and I will donate a chocolate fish to the winner, (a real one at the next gettogether). I might have to buy a few of them in case I get hungry over the holidays and eat the prize :lol:
I am sticking with my long predicted $7.25.
WooHoo. Looks like an xmas feast for all, a very long table needed:t_up:, and xmas crackers provided complete with corny jokes like,
Q"What is small round and brown and sits on a piano stool?
A. "Beethovens last movement."
Following MET's announcement on 19 December 2019, MET has received a further
revised non-binding indicative proposal to acquire MET and has substantially
negotiated a scheme implementation agreement (SIA) with a third party.
However, the SIA has not yet been executed pending confirmatory financial due
diligence.
I agree with you Winner on how this reads, a deal has been done. Just checking that SIA is the 'how to go about it' stuff? I'm guessing there is significant costs when sorting the logistics? Am I thinking correctly?
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+23+Dec+2019
North of $7 being talked about. I'd be very surprised if they hadn't got price agreement already as if they hadn't we wouldn't be in a trading halt.
Puts a rocket under the rest of the sector.
Shareprice at $6.38 about the same as THREE years ago ....and there’s been huge earnings growth since I’m told.
Everybody seems happy to get something a bit over 7 bucks
MET on paper has a well respected Board but on reflection you’d have to say they’ve (and Sowry) been pretty slack when it comes to enhancing shareholder value. Not a good look, I’ll keep their names in mind.
Anyway this dog is probably going to put out of its misery soon.....but I’m happy to have made on it do sort of feel sorry for long term suffering holders who at best have really got as they say a get out jail free card as
If you take a 3 year perspective there's a lot of disappointed people who bought a house / land in Auckland 3 years ago and I think therein lies the explanation.
The outlook is much better and also the development outlook of MET and that's probably what has stirred interest in this proposed takeover.
Every other stock in the sector is now trading on a minimum of a 25% premium to NTA so private equity are getting a great deal if this goes for $7.25 which virtually no premium to NTA at all. I think you are right, the board and Sowry could have been a lot more proactive and as mentioned recently the buy-back was too little, too late.
Easy enough to find SUM value elsewhere in the sector as a substitute for capital invested here.
Ironic in some ways that Comvita actually buying their shares back while Metlifecare never got round to it.
Metlifecare Board slack as got a lot to answer for - just as well NZ Superfund have stirred the market up, but then their expectations probably aren’t that high....just happy to get out.
So the outlook for the company is very rosy.
Someone sees value is buying it up (we know that they aren't always right, especially if it turns out to be some private equity outfit) - why don't NZ shareholders see the value?
Why do we always sell for the quick gain rather than look at the big, long picture?
Not a lot of hope, really, for the NZ sharemarket in general,
Comes down to where the funds released from takeovers are deployed.
NZ is a small market with limited sector diversification so international diversification is desirable and appropriate.
Too much of jumping on the bandwagon type investing in NZ - so need to be careful out there.
Examples in recent times where directors should have negotiated and accepted takeover offers (in part or in whole) :
THL
CVT
STU
FBU
Not all cheese and crackers out there.
I don't think so. Government are making it exceptionally tough for residential rental property investors. I think there's a lot of rental property investors looking for the exit door and where will that money go ? REIT's and retirement companies because those sort of people are comfortable with property as an investment class but not at all comfortable with the current political environment where tenants rights are front and central to Govt policy. You can get a good feel for how property investors are currently thinking in this thread https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...070#post782070
Yup .. couple of my mate sold their rentals..to much red tape and low return...too much work too...now they are in commercial.. returning 6 to 7 present...no works at all...
Maybe "much of the proceeds" is an overstatement but my guess is that a significant percentage from the takeover will end up in residential real estate.
The government are making it tougher for landlord investors. Although it could be said that it is trying to bring the residential rental market to a standard fit for the 21st Century. Investors still don't need to pay a stamp duty when buying an investment property, unlike Australia and other countries.
Unlike Australia, the NZ share market is small for the size of our population, and fixed interest yields are low. I would suggest that every takeover or loss of an NZX listing results in a diminished share of household assets remaining invested in sharemarket listings with investor residential real estate being a net beneficiary.
I guess it remains to be seen whether the current government's rental and tax changes will make a dent in the long term trend.
Disc: MET shareholder and I would have liked to continue to be a long term holder. I invested in the Retirement Property stocks rather that have the hassle of being a landlord.
Yep, I reckon you’re on the money. My sister and brother in law just sold all their rentals....5 I think.... Milford are now investing the proceeds for them. They had mostly newer houses, so weren’t faced with insulation issues. But it just seemed to be getting harder and they could do without the hassle.
Who did they sell them to?
Other investors? Owner occupiers?
Just in the 12 months alone, subsequent to the insulation requirements which has been a MASSIVE multi thousand dollar drama for many landlords we have had a new law ringfencing tax losses from rentals so you can no longer offset those against other income and major new legislation is pending, (discussed in detail in that other thread) giving tenants a whole new suite of rights and major moves to disempower the real owner of the property. This comes on the back of the change to depreciation a few years ago so that people can no longer claim building depreciation.
The legislative framework is such that landlords are entitled to feel that their rights as owners are being very forcefully undermined. With the widespread proliferation of methamphetamines' and damage to property from either gross recklessness or deliberate retribution from disenfranchised tenants and a Government hell bent on a major shift in the balance of power dramatically in favour of the tenant, its now got so tough I can completely understand why people are getting out.
Anyway..back to MET. Where am I going to reinvest proceeds of the MET takeover ? Have started already with SUM and haven't finished yet.
HGH also a safe long term bet and good value and is likewise in a nice uptrend so technically it looks just as good as the fundamentals.
I like investing in good solid companies on compelling fundamentals that are in a nice rising uptrend...much easier swimming with the tide than against it, so to speak.
Just so long overdue changes really, hard to argue with any of these measures...
Just in the 12 months alone, subsequent to the insulation requirements which has been a MASSIVE multi thousand dollar drama for many landlords we have had a new law ringfencing tax losses from rentals so you can no longer offset those against other income and major new legislation is pending, (discussed in detail in that other thread) giving tenants a whole new suite of rights and major moves to disempower the real owner of the property. This comes on the back of the change to depreciation a few years ago so that people can no longer claim building depreciation.
Thanks.
Will be interesting to see how this plays out on the larger scale.
Does this mean more houses becoming available to potential occupiers (albeit, with affordability still an issue) or are there just bigger players hoovering them up as more rentals for their fleet.
You're most welcome :) Its been "quite a ride" since the low $4's in October.
Sweet as mate. You help a lot of people focus on particular shares so I'm glad I helped you in a small way
All I'm worried about at present is the black caps and hoping I didnt miss christmas with the family for them to not turn up!
Seriously I've pored money into retirement shares for 3 years. I just couldnt get over that they have stock levels that gets bigger and bigger each year and each individual item of stock goes up and up in value and the real kicker is they get to sell the same item again and again and again. Imagine that!
MET was simply looked at thru the lens of water-tightness and if they had factored it in then why still the deep discount to NTA. Not really anything more than that. I bought quite a bit at $4.38 so it's been good to me. In fact the last 3 months have been massive with ARV, SUM and RYM and even OCA moving along strongly on top of this one. A few more quarters like this and I can sell up and retire somewhere tropical!
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...a-premium.html
the opportunity was fortold 9months ago ...
A good article but to be honest they had been saying that for quite some time.
https://www.marketscreener.com/METLI...401/consensus/
If you scroll down to the timeline of consensus recommendations you'll see that analysts were almost universally very positive about MET from as far back as 2018, (and indeed, not showing on the attached link, for all of 2017 as well), when it was ~ $6.50 and if you followed their recommendations blindly without a thought for technical analysis or an understanding of what the market was really concerned about, (Auckland real estate prices and the need for MET to change their business model towards a more continuum of care), you would have badly underperformed the market and this sector.
The free lesson and reminder here is technical analysis is very, very valuable. I waited for a confirmed 3 month base in the share price in the low $4's which occurred over winter 2019 and early spring and by the time there was a clear break out from that baseline share price support anecdotal evidence was beginning to mount that the Auckland market was also breaking out of its fairly lengthy price malaise.
TA was then firing off some compelling BUY signals and added to the very strong fundamental analysis such that a compelling investment case clearly existed. My nose for a feed then started screaming at me to buy even though in my head I didn't really want to go there. I simply couldn't ignore the way loud TA signals lined up with compelling value any longer and had to start buying in October. This is a very good example that great money can be made after (and not before), strong technical analysis signals confirm deep value fundamental analysis. When strong TA and FA line up that's when one should really sit up and take serious notice.
If we look at TA now for the rest of the sector its perhaps worth noting that ARV, RYM and SUM are at or about fresh all time high's with nothing but blue sky's ahead of them. OCA on the other hand is struggling to clearly make a break out from its historical high some time back of $1.23. I don't see a compelling FA case for RYM at the current level, (forward PE of 32) so in my opinion money released from this takeover is probably best directed to SUM or ARV. (trader Jackson will probably be pleased to see me say that).
Anyway...bring on tomorrow and hopefully $7.25 or maybe, really make my day and make it a little bit more :t_up:
No need to bother with TA or consensus targets or any of that stuff - the BIGGEST BUY SIGNAL for MET was when the price drifted to about 33% of RYM’s share price ...in August around the $4.20 / $4.30 mark
I'll always be sticking with analyzing things properly than relying on spurious price relativity theories.
Everyone will be happy tomorrow. Huge feed for the whole pack no matter when they joined in the hunt :t_up:
Be an anti-climax tomorrow if the trading halt is extended to next week ...or later
Yes, hopefully not.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/346583 - Time to go to the beach I think.
My thoughts in terms of $7.00 include a reference point that the share price was just $4.37 less than 3 months ago on 3 October 2019.
Major shareholders and the interested party will know a lot more about the current state of affairs of the company, in particular how sales have gone since they last reported for the year ended 30 June 2019, (nearly 6 months of additional sales information major stakeholders will be aware of under due diligence that small shareholders are presently in the dark about), and the current status of weathertightness issues so I will reserve judgement on whether I will accept $7.00 until I have a proper update from MET and read the appraisal reports thoroughly.
Its worth remembering that there are two other interested parties and that $7.00 is probably slightly below the net tangible assets of the company as at 31 December 2019. I don't think there is any hurry to sell when the trading halt is lifted on Monday.
Sold out much too cheap (even if $4.39 is Beagles reference point)
MEt Board shown their usual slackness .... but NZ Super who have probably driven this process will be happy to get $7.00 so that’s the end of the matter
We ‘small’ shareholders don’t get much say if any in the matter anyway.
$6.96 NAV was as at 30 June 2019 so does not include the increase in value of the assets since then or the companies earnings.
Maybe there's a special dividend as part of this deal as well which at least pays out earnings for the last 6 months ?
Maybe that dividend is based on IFRS earnings which includes property gains in the last 6 months ?
Gents - what is next? the proceeds from MET, should I put it into OCA or SUM? or is OCA and SUM overpriced?
Milk? ATM, A2 milk? Synlait?
So three ‘interested’ parties and one was ‘credible’ and all the Board can extract is close to NAV doesn’t set a very high benchmark for the sector as a whole does it Scrunch
Top end of town with zillions of cash say 0.9 times to 1.1 times NTA is what these companies are worth.
Have I missed out something here ?
Today's announcement says that "the third party has completed due diligence". Has MET conducted its own valuation report ? Should the shareholders get to see an actual independent appraisal report first ?
Also, why are they not disclosing who these 2nd and 3rd parties are ?
Not really, they're 'saying' that's what MET is worth, not the sector. Must be something about MET that only warrants an acceptable bid at around NTA, can't conflate that to the whole sector.
Still a get out of jail card for long suffering shareholders. I'd be doing the jig instead of quibbling about 25 cents here or there. Nice windfall for those with the nose. Well done.
It is all fun and games on here. Everybody thinks they’re right and that’s what Makes this site so interesting. Couta1 loves his milk And beagle loves the old folks. Unfortunately no one has a crystal ball. You could do some diversification and get a bit of both or do something else completely Like SKO. Beagle does give some very good analysis, so trying to understand it and I look up what I don’t understand. It’s a bit difficult to understand what is tongue in cheek, between what is researched, I take it with a pinch of salt and do lots of lots of research Make notes, so you remember what you decided what you did, and then go for it . When the MAs are one above the other, then that might be a nice indicator. :t_up:
Beagle ,Winner 69, Balance, Couta1 and all the rest of you, Thank you for another entertaining and educational year and for all your help and support and sharing your wisdom and humour, let’s hope we all have a good 2020 vision for next year
MET would have down their own valuation
They’ll produce a Scheme of Arrangement or something similar. It’ll probably have the Directors support and recommendation to accept
There will be an ‘independent report’ which will probably say fair value between $6.50 and $7,20 so $7.00 is pretty good.
Probably a done deal. You and me don’t matter or really count and we’ll have to take what our Directors say is good.
Independent only academic and only a good read for a laugh - if you get my gist.
That’s how I see it anyway
Thanks Winner69 for the explanation.
I suppose all will be revealed on Monday by noon, including who the 2nd and 3rd parties are.
Looks like a done deal now... I thought there was gonna be a $7.50 offer, maybe $8 even (like management were touting) instead selling for virtually NTA in the end, oh well, better than below NTA.