Do us all a favour root and hold off. Still reasonably good volume today simply run out of sellers due to the massive volume this week. Could acheive a 66 close today unless some serious sellers come back to the market.
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Do us all a favour root and hold off. Still reasonably good volume today simply run out of sellers due to the massive volume this week. Could acheive a 66 close today unless some serious sellers come back to the market.
This peak is the same size as the last one looking at OHLC data, a high of 67 and a close of 66. I'd be happier if we crept a little higher tomorrow before heading into the next low. (Resisted the urge to sell)
"Every man and their farm dogs in NZ that have gone into South America have been burnt bad, this includes Fonterra."
I dont see that PGW's venture into South America as a failure, in fact from what I can see it will become one of shining lights of the company over the coming years as world economies improve. The problem with PGW has not been its vision, Craig Norgate has plenty of that! The problem has been the strategy for implementing the vision which has been the problem.
I hope that PGW dont become introverted and cant see past NZ. After all we are a very small country in a very big world. If PGW can take their expertise and sell that world wide ( South America, China, Australia) all the talk about $40m or $50 million profit will be a drop in the bucket. This company has the potential to become a global player if it can get its execution right.
With some of the changes which are occuring on the board then I believe that they may be able to achieve that over the coming years.
Had a chat with a person in the rural sector in the weekend. The drought in the north island is pretty devastating.
PGW should merge with ELD.
Gradually moved sideways and down to this low.Any chance of seeing a bounce off .60/.61 to .68 or .70 soon? Or are investors still keen to stay de-risked at the moment?
Any ideas?
Hey FlyFox, well unfortunately PGW seems to have taken a hit...down 5% yesterday..ouch!! :eek:
The lack of growth in the NZX over the last month has really taken its toll on the PGW SP.
I think we will see an improvement over the week (FTSE up last night, some positive news last week, US open tonight etc.) and a possible build up closer to the Half Year Results Announcement on Feb 25th. I think it will show PGW getting its act together.
2010 is going to be good for agriculture.
Just my thoughts.
Disc: Hold..and trying to stay cool :cool:
Hey asc4,
I hope you're right, I always get nervous when a stock takes a plunge just before reporting. The riskier stocks do move around a bit more with global influences like we are seeing at the moment. I'll be interested in reading the disclosure.
ANN: PGG Wrightson Finance has secured a BB (stable) rating from international credit rating agency Standard & Poors, confirming its place amongst the top tier of finance companies in New Zealand.
“Despite the challenging economic environment in New Zealand, PWF has achieved good profitability in the past three years, reflecting strength of the PGG Wrightson’s brand, expertise in the rural lending segment, and the company’s asset quality.”
Some good news for the PWF arm of PGW today. :)
They had it before too, "Reconfirmed" presented as "secured". PGC has BB+
at least their financial position will looks much better,and could performance worse than last year?even last year that was becasuse of the one-off SFF failure
The problem is the whole market is lack of confidence now, many people are still waiting and watching,or prefer to put money in the bank
Oh dear. Did the Chinese pay too much for PGW?
Who knows? maybe DrWho knows!?,
Will find out tomorrow!
Not a good sign when the sp is so weak just prior to the profit announcement.
Nice to see a bottom line without any brackets around it.
Yeah exactly, earnings were a little on the light side, but on the whole a solid result, and very much in line with expectations. They expensed the cap-raising costs which makes the bottom line look pretty small, but should really start to reap the rewards of a stronger balance sheet next year.
PGW multiples make ELD look too cheap. :D
I have been buying ELD over the past week on the expectation that PGW provide a healthy report today and they have. Taking into account the consolidation, I agree - @140c, ELD does look oversold. If it closes above 140 tonight, I would call it bullish. It's result is due any day now - yes? Last year, their result was out mid Feb.
...oops! this is the NZX thread, sorry.
I dont quite understand the equity-liability figures, where has the 200 million gone?
Balance,
Not so quiet. I have not done much fundamental analysis on this one. What I do know is:
a) a few farmers who are starting to spend more;
b) that the chinese company buying into PGW have made good investments before and are unlikely to buy a lemon (which this is not);
c) that their gearing (Debt to Debt+Equity) has improved;
d) that pre-reporting the bears ruled;
e) that it is now the bears who have gone quiet as the sp begins to rise (3.4% today and I estimate another 5% next week);
f) PGC shareholders seem to also like the report (their sp has also risen today indicating that the heavy selling may be over, even before they report)
g) technically, the sp has found good support at 58 and has bounced off nicely twice.
and there's more...but I got other work to do.
Happy trading.
Still waiting for Dr Who to enlighten us with his 'multiples'.
Will be an interesting switch if ELD is indeed so much cheaper than PGW.
PGW 2010 PER 23
ELD 2010 PER 10
I am sure a man like yourself with all the contacts can do your own numbers. Lets have a look at your numbers and your holdings disclosure.
Short term price movement does not represent long term fundamental value for a company. This is very true with the recent IPO of KMD and MYR where prices was pushed up for the first day of listing to make it look good.
No need to be defensive or insulting, Dr Who. It was a genuine inquiry to get some figures to look at. You made the assertion that ELD is very cheap compared to PGW.
Here's my take on the situation from publicly available information :
PGW is forecasting $24.1m so is currently trading on a forecast PER of 19 for 2010.
ELD is forecasting $54m so ELD trading on PER of 11.3 for 2010 but note that it is not taxed - so comparative PER is actually 16.2.
Note also that ELD's forecasts are dependent upon some asset sales. You might want to check on the progress of the asset sales - it's running $60m behind schedule. In fact, ELD has had to write down the value of Hi-Fert by 80%.
So knock $4m profit off ELD's forecasts - PER is now 17.5X.
The real upside to both stocks are going to be in 2011 when the benefits of the recapitalization and restructuring kick in.
I am happy to stick with PGW. Bobcat summed up the reasons why PGW looks good - solid balance sheet, solid industry position and restructuring behind the company.
Plus Agria could move at any time to increase its shareholding - Bobcat & I will consider our options at that time.
Are there any views on the effect that the appointment of Sir John Anderson as chairman might have on PGW's fortunes?
In my experience of the man he is a very capable chairman and administrator, with a tendency to be somewhat autocratic and domineering. May be what PGW needs at this time?
Disc: Not holding at present.
I think Sir John,s appointment as positive.Craigs have PGW as a buy. FY10 Fy 11 Fy 12
PE 18.5 10.30 9.24
EPS growth -68% 80.80% 10.9%
Craigs expect PGW to pay a divie in FY 11.
ELD and PGW both look to me to be well focused companies with strong brands ,who have fixed their balance sheets and I would expect both to perform well.
Interesting article saying agricultural based companies and countries may be heading for good times.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/markets/ne...0628897&pnum=0
Anyone has some technical analyse?I only know this stock is undervalued now, but losing my patient waiting for the uptrend....maybe I should leave it and look back after a year.
You sound like an incompetent doctor! - Maybe you are one of those impatient fundamentalist types as well!
PGW appears to have stopped falling, but there is no evidence of any clear reversal as yet.
See how the OBV triggered an isolated Buy signal? Ignore it.
See how there was an isolated trendline break Buy signal? Ignore it.
See how the other 5 indicators featured here have not signalled a buy yet?
See how the Market Strength Indicator still has the plot highlighted in Red?
See how all of these indicators kept you out of PGW while the price halved?
See the little face in the lower right hand corner?
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...usPB/PGW35.gif
I was just waiting for you mate, very helpful thanks, ok at least it stop falling before reached my cost, but i'm betting my interest cost, that's why I'm losing patient........
Anyway, Dr please give me a yell when you think the price is not expensive anymore- if that day will come eventually.
Phaedrus.
thank you for your sage advice. I am waiting for the trend to change before adding to my holding.I think farmers are doing well but with the GFC they are paying down debt rather than spending.
So may be awhile before the uptrend,however I am holding myself at the ready!!!
I am not a market mover. Just a very small investor who enjoys the market and tries to do better.Ph's charts suit me just fine.
I had enough with this stock ,,,dumping and switch to ASX
Geez, I just bought some PGW today. Your rides ending, mine is just starting. I'm pretty new to shares. My father always told me: "never have anything to do with shares". I'm wandered into this world of shares at an interesting time....country's moving out of recession; many companies are re-capitalised and ready to move forward after enduring some dark times, some long-term projects like PRC are getting down to the nitty-gritty after years of waiting, NZO have Kupe on the go & an exciting drilling program, the govt's investing up to $1.5 billion in the 'ultra-fast' broadband project....it's fascinating stuff.
:confused:Depends how much cash you have. ASX is obviously where the action is. But you can easily slide down as well as climb. The problem with investing in Oz if you live in NZ is how do you know what is happening in Oz. How do you get the gossip, how do you, as I did, look at the locomotives and conclude that rail in NZ was waiting to go broke? It did. How nimble are you with ASX? With lots of shares you can go to the Annual Meetings in Oz, but it takes me a bit of effort to get from Christchurch to Greymouth for Pike. Next problem is, do you need dividends or not? I do not, I have sufficient income. So I am able to hold Pike, Pyne Gould and PGGWrightson with no income at present.
I find the sharemarket quite fascinating. Far better than doing the washing up. :)
Good sign.
We just need a few more posters reacting to the sp slump and we know the stock has bottomed.
Works a treat everytime!
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...A-Chart/page31
Balance, I'm pretty sure this is bottom (give or take 2cents), any thoughts as to why we are stuck there?
High NZD?
Dairy prices peaked?
Lack of financing in the rural sector?
Too many rural companies seeking funding, including Fonterra?
You name it, plenty of reasons why PGW is stuck in this price range. But according to some people this stock is worth $100... LOL
Er, how long do we continue to watch the space at ELD?
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...ade-here/page8
ELD is at an all time low again!
Wonder why?
Waiting for an answer from Dr Who.
LOL - Not holding my breath though!
Dr, nobody said this stock worth $100, I dump it not because it's not worth to hold,but just need time to see the buy signal, probably i will come back if lower bottom will be formed.
Why would the share price go up until they can show that they can turn a decent profit?
So no change until august/ september?
Agria had an announcement about strategy review on 10/03 and their sp just jumped 16%, they mentioned PGW cooperation but it seems have no effect in NZ
so disappointing on nz sharemarket, lack of interest....
ELD now at an ALL TIME LOW. SP now not even covering rights issue price was $1.50 equivalent. Something smells.
In contrast, PGW sp is well above rights issue price of 45c.
LOL - You have not figured it out yet, Dr Who, have you? Circumstances change in the market and you change your investment strategy to maximize the opportunity.
Unlike you, I am happy to admit I am wrong and decide what to do next.
Cool big ripe sweet juicy red water-melons on a hot sunny day. Crackling roast pork on a snowy cold day. Get it?
Have I missed something? What is affecting the price of PGGWrightson? I am OK at anything above 48 cents, only a small loss at that price. Any idea when improvements. Also what is this about $200million. I thought the Rights coveredd that. Or is it another $200 million? All advice welcome.
Not another $200m, Mouse. In fact, PGW has paid back the banks earlier due to stronger cash position.
Sp of companies after hefty rights issues tend to be volatile. We have seen it with NPX, FPA, PGC and the same with PGW. Traders will trade in and out and there's still decent profits in PGW for those who were brave and bought the stock at lowish levels. Remember the rights price was 45c.
Dr Who thought ELD is very cheap but forgot to do a post-taxed PE adjustment - which is how comparisons are made. The fallacy of youth - they think they know everything. Sigh.
:t_up:Mouse have a look at ELD, it is up over 8.7% today.
Read the ELD thread. I ve been saying all along that ELD looks cheaper than PGW on my numbers. ELD sp up again today. But then, hey dont listen to me, I am just a hillbilly who cant read the spreadsheet. :D
You gotto watch some people in here, when they are too negative you gotto buy... echo echo echo... LOL
Geeeez the volume...who is this?funds back?after push the impatient small players lik me to sell to them?!
ok ,,,,they alwyas win
Does any one have any idea who is buying and selling 10 million shares?
That was the Silver Ferns Farms shares which were brought by AMP from memory. But since then there has been a 9 for 8 share issue and a lot of movement in the ownership of PGW.
Was wondering if perhaps Dr Who had had a change of heart re PGW and decided to buy a few?
mory?
It appears that PGW is exposed to around 8 million for the Crafar farm situation. Not too bad.
it is taking a bit longer than I thought for the shareprice to get some gains. looking like will have to wait until septempber
PGW is going through some pain the Aussie farmers went through last year and early this year. DROUGHT! Also NZS is a problem child for PGW. NZS has to sell down their farms just to pay their fees. How long can this go on, no one knows. NZ rural sector is also struggling with the lack of cash. Farmers cant even sell their farms.
There will come a time I will buy PGW. The timing is yet a guess at this stage.
Fair summary Doc, I don't know much about farming but at some stage you'd expect farmers to have to re-sow a lot of their drought ravaged pastures and bring the livestock levels back. I suppose that involves borrowing from the banks, and buying off PGW and RD1.
ok whats up???
Maybe a reaction to the fact that international dairy supplies are tight at the moment and a big jump in dairy prices is on the cards at the next Fonterra auction. They have already taken 5000 tons off the table.
Dr Who,Is that you buying today?
I'd say Norgate. Who else needs to sell? And has that many shares to offload? But the question is...who's buying? Agria need shareholder approval to take their stake above 20% or else they launch into the takeovers code.
Does anyone know whether Agria can buy Norgates share and apply for shareholder approval afterwards? I thought the order would be the other way...but this would kind of explain it.
Trade volume is 48,457,450.
According to this notice from 23 December http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/PGW/...Disclosure-RPI, Rural Portfolio Investments Securities Limited own 48,457,450.
Coincidence?
16 trades as 6% of the company is sold down. Can only be PGC or RPI, as I doubt the Chinese have suddenly turned tail. Norgate needs money to pay interest to RPI bondholders. No hope of a PGW dividend that used to fund these payments. Having used his kids to pump the shareprice, Norgate now selling down to whoever will take those RPI shares? Norgate is gone from the board and is now on his way out of the share register. Are we witnessing the unravelling of a dream of an increasingly desperate man?
SNOOPY
SNOOPY/
yes I think you have it right yet again.PGC are not distreesed sellers, so I would not expect them to be sellers.I wonder if the Singaporeans are buying.
RPI norgate
Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure under the instructions to this form:
Rural Portfolio Investments Securities Limited has unconditionally agreed to sell its 48,457,450 PGG Wrightson Limited (PGW) shares in an off-market transaction, with consideration of $0.56cps ($27,136,172.00).
As a result of this agreement, the relevant interest of Rural Portfolio Investments Securities Limited in its shares has changed from a legal and beneficial to a legal interest only.
Settlement is to take place on 26 April 2010.
who bought from norgate? AMP capital investments?
AMP reduced their holding in FPA and bought PGW.