Another record result
Well done FPH
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...359/291205.pdf
Printable View
Another record result
Well done FPH
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...359/291205.pdf
its solid, but hardly inspiring for a stratospheric PE - somewhere in the 40's !!! according to ANZ details.
Gotta accept greater fool risk if you want to buy a piece of this great company.
No chance to ever make money on dividends at that pe.
Therefore buying into fph is a bet that the pe will always be astronomical.
Shame really.
He ate two strategies I've used to buy fph:
1. A while ago I bought some of these then sold down after the price increased to reduce my average buy price.
2. Ive also bought a small parcel so the risk of pe drop doesn't bother me.
Both strategies are arguably flawed, as they start to get into increasing psychology. On both points i was left with some shares that were priced to sell and had no way to earn a decent dividend rate for the amount of money the shares were worth.
In the end, after all my trading, im left with just a small parcel that i hold simply because i like the company and don't mind writing off that cash. The only strategy i will use to buy fph in future is buying significant dips, and possibly option 1 again if i find myself in a position to see significant tailwinds that i don't think the market has noticed.
Hey, maybe after 10 years my small parcel will be worth something, and i can sell up to buy something that will give me a little income.
Perhaps a good stock if you want to leave an inheritance for someone?
Notably a bad result could easily half the value of this stock, dropping that high pe.
Been a great investment stock for me , my entry av $3.02, have sold some over the years but it usually kept going up after. I may possibly sell some more to build some cash if things really start to look grim bear wise globally but its been a great long term premium investment grade story. The penny finally dropped and i invested in competitor RMD Resmed later, at average A$6.65. Very similar 10 year charts with incredibly similar gains.
If you bought 5 years ago at $3.5 (right at the start of the stella growth) you'd be getting a dividend of about 5.5% on your initial investment. You'd also have stock in a very good growth company.
I guess if the growth continues at that rate, it's a good investment!
I wonder what a dividend return chat would look like against a company that constantly spits out a higher div, like nzx.hlg?
As a long term investment (assuming you never sell)... How many years before you'd get a total dividend return from fph greater than hlg?
Growth vs high div
Half-year results look pretty good with 20% increase in net profit after tax.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/327359
Speaks for itself doesn't it?Who would have suggested FPH outperformed by EBOS though.Can EBOS continue to grow at this rate by acquisition.Have they got the future management in place to facilitate?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-b...+December+2018
Compared to infratil which is similar returns and in my view the right ethos and succession in place
https://infratil.com/for-investors/
Interestingly GS downgraded FPH to SELL this morning
Interesting behemoth fundie Vanguard becomes a 5% plus holder.Defensive strategy ?
And KPG....
Any reason for the price drop in the past week?. 14.20 to 12.70
Found it, Resmed au had an analyst down grade and lost 25%, FPH was affected
It appears the era of Mutually Assured Destruction is now over:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/330869
Well yes - however, if you are buying - MIND THE GAP!
Attachment 10333
Are you suggesting that the only people that benefit from all these laws are the people that make and enforce the laws?! Astonishing! Surely that would never happen! Lol
$7.7 m on litigation.Hope it has protected their patents
https://resources.fphcare.com/resour...esentation.pdf
Looks like a new high isn't far away.A higher high tomorrow would support the momentum.
- Population age and weight both increasing
- − US population 65 years+ to grow ~80% over next 20 years1
- − US males 60 - 74 years, average weight increased 0.4 kg/year since 19602
- 60% of US healthcare cost is after age 65 years3
50% of rev in US currency. 19% European, 1% NZ
Margins look to be flattening.
OUR ASPIRATION:
Sustainably DOUBLING
our constant currency revenue every 5-6 years.
Lower Care Intensity = Lower Cost
Optiflow - Displacing Conventional Oxygen Therapy
Obstructive Sleep Apnea
- Temporary closure of airway during sleep
- Can greatly impair quality of sleep, leading to fatigue; also associated with hypertension, stroke and heart attack
- EstimatedUS$3+billionworldwidemarket.
- Estimate>50millionpeopleaffectedin
developed countries
FPH Presentation to Deutsche Bank NZ Corporate Day
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/335053
I am just not sure why this company is worth so much in SP?? It goes well, but very very slow growth.
A lot of naysayers?
Disclaimer:Originally purchased for $4/share,doubled up when share price dropped to $3.Interesting to note share price relative to ATM.What are their relative risk profiles?
Things to like with FPH
"constant currency revenue growth of 20% from new applications consumables"
"Gross margin increased by 56 basis points to 66.9%, or a 58 basis points increase in constant currency, compared to the previous year, primarily due to favourable product mix"
"Last year, we invested $100 million (equal to 9% of our revenue) into R&D and we have a full pipeline of new products in development."
"reduction of debt to below the target gearing range"
"capital expenditure for the 2020 financial year to be approximately NZ$150 million"
"At current exchange rates we expect full year operating revenue for the 2020 financial year to be approximately NZ$1.15 billion and net profit after tax to be approximately NZ$240 million to NZ$250 million. Recent changes introduced by the New Zealand Taxation (Research and Development Tax Credits) Act 2019, a significant reduction in patent litigation costs and forecast currency benefits have been factored into our earnings guidance for 2020"
"86% of the company’s revenue was generated from recurring items, such as consumables and accessories"
A very sound company now litigation is behind it.
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. Warren Buffett
Such slow growth! Only 4% to 12% annually depending on sector! Overall 8% in constant currency.Quote:
Overview of key results for the 2019 financial year
- 10% growth in net profit after tax to a record NZ$209.2 million.
- 8% increase in final dividend to 13.5 cps (2018: 12.5 cps).
- 9% growth in operating revenue to a record NZ$1.07 billion, 8% growth in constant currency.
- 12% growth in Hospital operating revenue, 11% growth in constant currency.
- Revenue growth of 20% in constant currency for consumables used in non-invasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow therapy and surgical applications, accounting for 62% of Hospital consumables revenue.
- 6% growth in Homecare operating revenue, 4% growth in constant currency.
- Investment in R&D was 9% of revenue or NZ$100.4 million.
- 86% of the company’s revenue was generated from recurring items, such as consumables and accessories.
Sounds disastrous.
The company is doing too well ... should increase tax to prevent them from growing so fast ...
"Let's tax this!"
FPH SP has only gone up 280% over the last 5 years! Why would you consider putting your cash there?
Attachment 10557
A comparison with ATM may be unflattering, a comparison with just about any other share indicates returns have been pretty healthy.
I bought quite a lot up until 2012 then I have been selling chunks every year since then thinking the price was ridiculous. It is still one of my larger NZX holdings as the price just keeps growing. Having been wrong about selling every year over the last 6 years, I have decided not to sell any this year and just go with the flow.
I am not saying the company is bad quite the opposite. This company is magnificent, just not for this price. This particular share has a great record for capital gains. Will it continue, who knows for the short term....
If I were to sell my A2 milk for other investments FPH would not even be a consideration for me, as in 5 years time A2 will have higher dividends than FPH, maybe even sooner with growth far exceeding FPH.
Hey but its only my opinion and I have been proven wrong before.
I hear you, im not selling anymore either.Yeah go with( the sleep apnoea) FLOW, masks. Theres 29 million OSA people in the USA alone and growing(all those fatties).
Ive got the easier solution , holding ATM and FPH (and RMD) and looking at other similar companies atm.
I wonder if next year will be greater than 10% growth because the competitor is based in China, which is looking at some serious cost increases. Additionally, as a currency hedge, this could be good.
I'll be buying the dips, though admittedly im carrying a fair bit of cash that would otherwise be invested in stocks.
Correction, the competitor's factory is based in China
I guess someone now is realising that FPH needs a more realistic SP
The rate of increase in NPAT has been trending down over the last few years (27%, 18%, 12%, 10%). Forecast next year increase in NPAT of at least 15%, reversing the trend if it comes to pass. They are a pretty sure bet to increase profit next year. I guess there are not that many companies you could say that for.
It is a great company of that I have no doubt, but I only value it around what analysts value it at, roughly $13 give or take. I would only invest if I had no need for the dividend for about 5-10 years at these figures. I have been proven wrong over the years with the valuation of FPH and a couple of other companies, but I have been correct before on others and sold out at the right time and made good money. At the end of the day we all have different strategies for investing.
FPH is a solid company and not going broke anytime soon.
I find buying shares in great companies at a cheap price relatively easy. There are always bargains around the corner if you are patient enough. I have more problem selling. I usually start selling too early. Also, I can never bring myself to sell completely out of a company I like, no matter what the price. Logically, FPH is over priced and has been for years but it will stay in my portfolio until I lose interest in the company no matter what the price.
Maybe being priced like a bond but with good chance of an increase in capital value and dividend over time
Will she break the below $15 today????
Not today
Trump whacked a 5% tariff on Mexican goods today (or at least announced it) with our going up 5% per month up to 25%. That's FPHs advantage poked. I see these dropping away significantly. I wouldn't like to put a guess on the bottom, but like everyone, I'll be putting some money on it when it feels right.
" divert production from Mexico elsewhere and supply the US market from New Zealand – where it still does the bulk of its manufacturing – if necessary.
Gradon also noted in November that the lower value of the Trump-hit Mexican peso would make manufacturing in Mexico cheaper."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...-talks-tariffs
Also building in Auckland
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/312093
Yup, from memory the sp dropped to about $8 as investors didn't believe the story that it wouldn't damage profits much.
This is different of course, because trump suggested that it will be lifted. So im expecting a slower, longer, but shallower decline of the sp this time around.
The big question is how much personal business interest the next US leaders have in Mexico when they get in (in 2020?).
I'll be looking to make a few bucks on this one. I like gambling when the worst case scenario is being stuck with over priced shares in a decent dividend paying growth company.
Wow back up to $6.20. This thing is a machine
Now $16.44. MACHINE!!!
The SP was once far > ATM,then less and now back to worth more.
SP is correlated to $ US/NZ ? recently
Steady up tick in TO,net profit & good margins.
Aim to double every 5 years
Someone caught short today?
Up $0.94,6.2%
fph Mkt likes the reassurance here with slight upgrade and solid 2020.
I also hold RMD (all time high today:) and young upstart OVN which appeals to the many who find a CPAP mask doesn't work for them, its poorly tolerated. The efficacy for OVN See thread) airway technology devices are near CPAP efficacy and alot cheaper. Win/WIN/WIn for me atpit DYOR
The ovn product seems a bit shammy to me. There. I've said it!
Almost like it's a different market. Maybe for people with a less serious problem.
Is it an uneducated view? Yes. But it's how I feel about it, and you have to feel good about the product in some way to buy in.
Do you mean this one JT?
Loss for the year attributable to the owners of Oventus Medical Limited up 34% to (7,848,255)
https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/ovn.asx/
Thats the one. 50 to 60% quit CPAP in the first year.OVN is the solution for many . OVN has its own thread ,and its way more risky then the established big guys DYOR.
The gift that keeps giving. Go FPH!!!
$16.62!!! New record high!!!!!!
Are we there yet ,no . Been higher twice ,as far as $16.80 by my charts. Following RMD to higher planes.Highest volume for a while too.
Has hit $17.26 (atpit) share4eva :)looks like the real deal atpit. Brand new high ,on average vol.
This stock is a stock market darling.
Just a lazy $17.64 close the week. Not bad considering it was $15.15 on the 27th August.
Good time for another tweet from the orange gorilla ;)?
Actually - just looked into the trend chart:
Attachment 10751
If you look at the RSI value for FPH (second graph - the red "potatoes" in the chart mark the relevant peak when the SP started dropping) - looks like we are currently again at the FPH specific peak-value.
You still can enjoy your gains over the weekend - and long term I am sure FPH is a good hold - but short-term the SP gains might disappear again next week.
Just saying.
Love your downramping BlackPeter. Were you doing that at $2.30??!!
FPH could become a $20 share on this news
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...528/309634.pdf
Hmm - $260m NPAT would mean an EPS of 45 cents. If we take your prediction of $20 SP, than this would make a PE of "only" 44.
Does not sound that dear these days for a company growing with a roughly 10% revenue CAGR, doesn't it?
Not my cup of tea, though - just imagine the markets decide at some stage in their collective wisdom to go for a healthy PE reduction back say back to 20 considering the growth (or heavens forbid - if they have an under-swinger to 10) ...
Id say a pe of 25 would be healthy for these. 20 would be a bargain.
True, but long term earnings CAGR (9 years) is 11.6. Still not bad, but not a Ryman either ;);
I guess we need to see whether this years earnings growth is just a blip or an indication of earnings growth speeding up.
I am sure the twit in the white house will always be good for bad surprises ....
GS not impressed
"New mask approved in US; guidance nudged up but largely FX; Sell"
BlackPeter's downramping didn't work. Lazy $18.32 on close
Share4eve..... being vindictive and silly on being corrected, does show ones immaturity. There's no need for this negativity.
BlackPeter's charts posted on this site have always been informative and appreciated. Perhaps if you spend a little time, read and understand TA basics you would appreciate the effort by posters on this site.... sharing views for everyone's benefit.
Getting to $20 quicker than I thought
And to think the earnings upgrade was essentially currency related
It is pretty hard to believe how the market has reacted... earnings upgrade mainly due to fx changes. Then if currency reverses back to where it was, then downgrade earnings again? Solid business but yeah it is looking quite expensive. But I think people think this is a safe place to leave your money in...
Yes indeed - you need to heed what my signature says “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”
Forget about PE ratios, 19 year CAGRs, RSIs and all those sort of things (suoerfluous and a handicap) and just go with the flow.
Maybe up my expectations ton$25 by Xmas
Kingfish Fund has heaps of these as well so many cheering it on.
But is it "mainly due to fx changes"?
I could be wrong but seems to me somehow a commentators view re fx changes has morphed into the main reason for increase in SP.
I always thought it was mainly due to the early approval & release of their brilliant new OSA mask into the huge US market.
They've managed to solve one of the main complaints from patients who need these types of masks.
FX changes add some icing to the cake.
Only 70 cents away from 20 bucks
Probably won’t stop there - one if the best company’s on the NZX and loved by global investors
Is today the $20 day?
Probably not,possibly,does it matter?.To think this was priced lower than ATM not so long ago.Go Eva !
I think it does matter they are over $20. One of the greatest vehicles of shareholder wealth in NZ history might get some traction on this board, so newbees might buy this instead of XXXX and actually make some real money.
My only hope is that people don't starting talking about there own CPAC experience (I have been on one) and start giving us long irrelevant torturous personal accounts like people do in the Air NZ thread...
'Last night, I was cleaning the hose that connects to my FPH breathing mask (I chose the white version), and this green discharge starting exiting...
Nicely put, nzspeak!
:ohmy:
I understand at least 50% of people discontinue cpap use within the first year, thats why besides holding RMD(mkt cap re A$8.7 bill) and FPH (mkt cap re $ 11.5 bill) im also holding Oventus OVN (mkt cap re $64 mill)which has the closest efficacy to masks with its mouthpiece and something like 20% plus more then Somned's(mkt cap re $180 mill) ones. However a whole lot of risk with this early stage minnow compared with the incumbent giants. DYOR