Give it a week.. panic selling seems to be a common theme with NZX as soon as a positive announcement is released.. or at least with penny stocks
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Great thanks, distressing seeing the gains in the past weeks wiped out in a few days, green turning red.
Long term its great, chance to buy up again eh.
Yes. You have to hang in there.
This week's www.chrislee.co.nz taking stock article, is of interest to us as he talks about PWC settlement.A lot of money.
Next up the directors.Takes time,but is looking positive for us.
No,but to go back to ALF's announcement of 30th August,to get any money, the next litigation against the directors must be successful.That trial is expected to commence Ferbuary 2018.Then the fun starts, if that is successful.
"The final quantum that Allied may be entitled to is potentially substantially greater amount than $500,000."
I would expect the fact the auditors paid up,means that the directors will too.Maybe they,[or their insurers] too, will decide not to go to court?
Hi Percy.
I interpreted the 30th August announcement differently.
My interpretation of the announcement is that the initial partial settlement, no matter how big or small it is, either in magnitude (in it's own right) or weighting compared to the Directors' potential payout, casts no further light on the Liquidators final position. The announcement then paints a kind of (in my view) extreme scenario to help explain why.
It may well be that getting nothing out of the Directors will still provide copius quantities of fruit so long as the Liqidators dont blow screeds of money between now and when the final outcome with the Directors' case is determined.
I think a settlement prior to court is likely. The announcement stated the outcome would not likely be determined in this calender year, so agreement in Jan or early Feb next year remains a real possibility.
Further to the attached post, I have given the matter of a potential upcoming dividend some thought...
In most situations I know of, the signal to recommence a dividend is announced at the ASM, which in ALF's case is the end of November. The announcement referred to in the attached post is in itself practically a signal in my view.
As a result, I hold a reasonable expectation of a dividend this current financial year (which commenced 1-July) to be distributed using last financial years profit available through their free operating cashflow.... fingers crossed.
Is this a hope it will be all OK for the full year type of announcement ......don’t expect miracles.
Hi Winner.
I don't believe their will be any issues surrounding ALF's full year announcement which is about 10 months away.
At the ASM held in late November last year, the board revealed they had internally held robust discussions about whether or not to pay a modest dividend following the result of their Financial Year Ending 30-June-2016. The reason they gave back then for not paying was some small legacy debt to a couple of creditors they felt should be taken care of first... that it could be a little embarrassing for ALF if/when these creditors become aware of a dividend being paid while still being owed some money by ALF.
So I think the expectation for ALF to pay a dividend following the result for Year Ending 30-June-2017 was reasonable, and I also believe they were/are in a position to do so.
But at the same time, and with this wonderful thing called hindsight, I also think it prudent for ALF to pay dividends in any given year using the free cashflow available from their previous financial year.
I good deal of my ALF purchases are now 3-4 baggers, so I am a very happy holder. I think though, it will be a dividend payout (however small) that will make headlines and re-rate the SP.
Another SP re-rating of course could well be the result of the litigation ongoing between the LPF group and PwC. If successful, ALF is likely to benefit. I think, if successful, ALF's equity will double at least. While there is no guarantee of LPF coming out on top once all the chips are down, their track record is pretty impressive.
In the latest NBR Oct-17 there is an article on the LPF Group which I think makes very interesting reading....
"Since it was established in 2009 LPF has backed 20 legal actions. Of the 14 completed so far, LPF says it has obtained a successful outcome in all of them - a 100% clean sweep."
"Since it was established in 2009 LPF has backed 20 legal actions. Of the 14 completed so far, LPF says it has obtained a successful outcome in all of them - a 100% clean sweep."
That is very encouraging for the share holders of ALF.
To be clear, ALF get paid out on the PwC claim (settled Aug 17) and/or the Directors claim (Feb18 trial). So as percy said you'd hope the PwC money won won't get fully spent on a failed Directors claim.
Looks like Vero was behind PwC's insurance, I wonder who is behind the Directors indemnity insurance.
Also on the opco, interesting read from PGW's 31/8 announcement around the sector, sheep numbers down but strong dairy confidence. No comment on beef. Also I wonder the impact of Mycoplasma Bovis on farmer confidence in buying dairy or even beef herds. Dairy farmers would be rightfully overly-cautious buying stock that were close to the affected farm. Definition of "close to the affected farm" would be different for each farmer: Chch farmers would avoid South Canterbury/Oamaru stock, SI west coast farmers would avoid the SI east coast stock, and north island farmers would avoid south island stock.
Tim Hunter has put an article out this morning detailing the insurance or lack thereof behind the PVL directors.
Any snipits you can post from the article? Is Hendo's name mentioned anywhere?
The unknown factors are:
1) ALF's percentage cut of net proceeds under the Deed of Assignment
2) PwC settlement sum
3) Directors settlement or claim under the courts
4) LPF's costs- they're probably incentivised to not have max net proceeds, try and falsely increase the costs (google Hollywood Accounting).
So to calculate ALF benefit: 1 * ((2+3)-4)
My val has this at: 10% * ((20m+0m)-5m) = $1.5m, and no tax impact.
Let me know if I am missing something or my assumptions seem wildly out - at least its a base for sensitising return.
We know 1. is 5 % publicly available info.
2. we dont know but the claim is for $302 million plus interest.
3. we dont know but PWC settled . Remember they had already lost in three courts so obviously didnt want to roll that dice again. Could be 20 to 50 million.
3. Agree
So my guess based on above plus ALFs own statement a while back that indicated they expected "substantially "more than what they had received to date for selling the loans in the first place which was $100,000
So range of 1m to 2.5 m
Further to Lola's response, bear in mind that there are 2 'tranches' to ALF receiving money from this litigation process. They are outlined in my ST post here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post663892
I am trying to keep $0.00 in my emotional bank regarding both tranches, certainly the 2nd tranch. For the 1st tranch though, underneath I do expect something, just don't know the quantum.
The example used before the courts (and is public information) by PWC's lawyers is as follows. The 3rd column is my notes and represents my current understanding which could be flawed.
Claim (Resolution Sum) $334,000,000This number subject to interest rate penalty and for this table assumes it to be 0.00% Less Project Costs (say) $3,000,000 Net Resolution Sum $331,000,000 SPF Services Fee 42.5% of
the Net Resolution Sum$140,675,000 Less Liquidation costs (say) $2,000,000 The Net Amount – Available to
PVL Creditors$188,325,000 ALF get 5% of this amount for the 1st tranch (the Assignment Fee). Under this example it represents $9.42 million Distribution of Net Amount To SPF as 1st Secured Creditor $188,115,226 Other Creditors $209,774
The last real variable for tranch 1 is the interest rate. I have looked at cases in the past regarding this type of litigation and do not think 8%/annum compounding is unreasonable at all. Ignoring the table above for now (which except for column 3 was put together by PWC's lawyers), the original amount filed against PWC in 2013 was $302 million.
So 8% compounding on $302 million from 2013 equals $445 million in 2018
Using the remainder of the table above, this hypothetical scenario brings ALF's tranch 1 from $9.42 million to $12.6 million (unless I have slipped a decimal point somewhere).
Vaygor1.
Spot on...Divie.....!!!!!
Yee ha! well done holders. Only 1% of my portfolio but nice to have this divi plus further positives to come for patient holders.
Thanks Percy, Blackcap, and Left Field.
Positive news indeed !! :)
The announcement indicates to me the H1 forecast for this financial year is healthy enough to warrant this payment without too much risk of reducing their free cash-flow.
Will be interesting to watch the SP over the next week or three.
Further to my post about 4 weeks ago (here.... https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post691896 ) on the potential amount ALF might receive as the Assignment Fee via the LPF litigation process, I have since learned the penalty interest rate as per the loan contract in question is specified as 1.5% per month with monthly rests (i.e. compounding monthly).
My example from 4 weeks ago used 8% per annum as the penalty interest rate but 1.5% compounding monthly equals 19.56% per annum.
Using the 19.56% per annum penalty interest, I calculate a potential award of of $302 million in 2013 equates to $737 million in 2018. If this is the amount awarded, and running it through the table as per my post from 4 weeks ago, ALF would receive $21 million as their 5% Assignment Fee.
Receiving $21mil when ALF's current market capitalisation is $14 mil would be interesting.!
The trial is due to commence in February 2018,which is not far away.
Should there be an out of court settlement, we may know in February exactly amount ALF will receive.
Yes indeed Percy. :)
Also of interest is the impact on the share price of a $12 million or $21 million one-off injection into a company whose reported equity is currently $2 million.
While on the subject, I believe ALF's real equity is over $10 million due to the off-balance-sheet items that are omitted in compliance with IFRS rules.
Crossed over 10c again. Looking good.
We might have a windfall for christmas
Waiting for early settlement
[QUOTE=golden city;698941]Waiting for early settlement[/QUOTE
News out it’s settled but months before details known
That’s a bit rich
If it’s settled what more would have to be done only to keep the clock ticking?
Nice ending
Now waiting for jackpot
Maybe to small to announce?
As it indicated from last announcement. It is substantial than 500k
" the Liquidators are not aware of a final settlement having been formally reached."
informally though?;)
Speculation is just speculation.....
Best not to get too excited until a formal announcement is made IMHO.
"Allied has become aware of a media article on 9 January 2018 stating that the Liquidators have settled with the Directors. However, the Liquidators have advised Allied that the media article is premature and that the Liquidators are not aware of a final settlement having been formally reached."
If you wait until the formal news. The share price will be formal value too I guessed
The article that was prematurely published appears to be very definitive and specific on certain matters.... must be some factual basis behind it imho.
I don’t think the newspaper will public so details without any information or knowledge
Just matter of clock ticking
Yes patience is needed.
Meanwhile the NBR have published a story that explains the situation quite well.
“The company (ALF) took on the loans (of Dave Henderson’s Property Ventures Ltd.) in its ill fated 2009 acquisition of the Hanover and United finance group’s loan book that wasn’t worth as much as initially thought. It sold them for $100k and at the time said it could rise to $500k, but (ALF) has since said if the litigation is successful it could be in for a larger return.”
Newspapers and the mainstream media in general these days are seldom right. These days, they seem to be all about over-hype, ratings and their own opinions rather than reporting the news.
However, for example, in this case I doubt the author of the article (link here) when stating - "That's the calculation you have to make," Walker said. - pulled the quote out of thin air.
Yet I do think the article is flawed in many respects. In particular where it states - Walker had sought information about the financial position of the directors and therefore any likely recovery from a court case. - I think this statement is a total red herring. The Directors will each have there own PI and PL insurance cover and their personal financial position is of no consequence to Robert Walker.
Also, take the following statement - Neither Walker nor the ex-directors would reveal the size of the latest settlement, although other players on the business scene described it as likely to be minimal. - This is meaningless conjecture... and who are these 'other players' on the 'business scene'? No credibility to the author there in my view.
My divie is in my bank.
Feeling good
Half year result should be due soon
I Loved this stock this year. Buying what ever I Can
Still patiently waiting haha
Nice jump on bit of volume today. The Court fixture was slated for February but to date no sign of it, nor word of a re scheduling. Only thing has been the announcement a few weeks ago by the Defendants that it was settled, but that seemed to be a Claytons or someones imagination. Tension mounts.
The excitement builds.?
Details of the settlements, and ALF share of them, should not be too far away.
Not a lot on the sell side.
A few more days for the big moment maybe haha
Yes indeed. All seems quiet on this front. So quiet in fact I did a bit of internet hunting to see if I could find anything.
Found this very interesting article from November last year in the NBR. The readers-comments section is as interesting as the story but there appears to be a lot of support for the LPF Group from some highly rated individuals within the legal sector.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/litiga...stice-b-209920
I'll be the 1st to admit I struggle to understand what this all means. However, it appears at this stage that it is more to do with the case bought against PWC itself, and not the case against the Directors... but even on this I am unsure.
I would very much like to have a number of questions answered concerning the issues this article raises... if I could find the right person to ask them to.
I have also tried to find a schedule of February 2018 court hearings that includes PWC but no luck so far.
Good morning V,
If you are a bona fide shareholder you would best ring the very approachable chairman Gary Bluett? d quote your csn and ask whatever you wish. Best from the horses mouth so as to speak. He won't be able to tell you any more than in the public domain but may enlighten you.
Regards
-dodgy
That is what I thought too. Because. Last news said it is pre mature Maybe just the sign off left. All agreed by negotiation
This dude any good?
ALF
08/03/2018 15:12
ADMIN
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1512 HRS Allied Farmers Limited
ADMIN: ALF: CFO Appointment
8 March 2018
CFO APPOINTMENT
The Directors of Allied Farmers Ltd (ALF) are pleased to announce the
appointment of Mr Brian Lee as Chief Financial Officer of the Allied Farmers
Group with effect from 3 April 2018.
Mr Lee joins ALF from NZX listed Smiths City Group where he has been CFO for
the previous 13 years.
ALF Chairman Garry Bluett said "We are delighted to have Brian join our team.
We are confident that his experience and expertise will help sustain and
drive the growth we are experiencing in our business".
Garry Bluett
Chairman
End CA:00315286 For:ALF Type:ADMIN Time:2018-03-08 15:12:11
I don't know,however he should have finance company experience ,as Smiths City have a very large finance company.
Still no update yet
Bit of a damp squib?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...954/276727.pdf
We were right about the timming but not the figures
Guess the market was hoping for a larger amount....
Equal to just on 3 cps, probably less than that by the time management take their bonus's out of it. I reckon people shouldn't kid themselves that management won't want some reward for their "efforts" Trading outlook recently was pretty glum too. Frankly I don't see what some people were so excited about...but each to their own and if this floats your boat all the best with it.
Still not as expected figure. But still a second division win. Better than nothing. It will help the company financially I am sure
A selection of posts over recent months. Reality bites pretty hard I think. The suspect the lawyers probably had the clock ticking at well over $1,000 an hour for many, many thousands of hours and they're the real winners and shareholders get nothing but crumbs.
To add insult to injury ALF cautioned about the second half prospects at the time of their half year announcement.
Back to 5 cents ?
Been a fun ride.!
Brought a nice holding, then sold half,and left with the balance owing me 3.7cps.
Not a "free" ride [yet].!!.
Also collected the modest divie.
Good for you, when buying flea ridden penny dreadful mutts its best to sell half when they show the first sign of life....long before they have to run in the first greyhound trial. Wonder how anyone who's dug themselves into a very deep position on this one is feeling though...
I learned long ago in the GFC that once the litigation or insolvency experts get involved at about $10,000 a day per person there's very little if anything left over for shareholders.
Yes the litigation was always "pie in the sky" for ALF shareholders.
That was not what attracted me,or the reasons I am happy to hold.
Online, finance and basic business has plenty of upside,from the more solid foundations, the focussed directors/management have laid.
From what I hear ALF are very customer driven now days.Nimble footed.
No fleas left.
I am focus more on recovery on solid ground too. Nz has more cow sheep than people. It is a good business to grow
Good grief... you might want to dig a little deeper on the analysis!
Calling it straight - this looked like a blind bet that has returned less than the loudly mooted odds.. now everyone's claiming they had a trading strategy or were in on the fundamentals . Ummm, ok....
Agree 100% although I would call it straighter and say its a pittance compared to the very loudly mooted odds...this extract from the half year report on 21 February 2018 gives an insight to the full year prospects
Emphasis added.Quote:
For the second six months of the year dairy herd sales contribute a
significant proportion of the annual profit. Many of these dairy herd sales
are contracted well in advance of settlement. Although it is still early in
the season, to date the forward sales herd contracts due for settlement
predominantly in May are tracking behind the same time last year and it may
be that the high volume of dairy herd sales that the company experienced in
the second half last year may not be repeated which would have a material
negative impact on the full year result.
They might match last year if shareholders are fortunate after accounting for the net litigation proceeds.
People took a punt and drove this agri services minnow that operates in a cyclical sector up from 5 cents to over double that at one point and now they're trying to tell us and kid themselves at the same time the fundamental's are good. I suggest nobody can reliably make a call on FY19's earnings, even FY18 is in doubt.
Hi Beagle
Having attended last years AGM I came away understanding that progress may be lumpy at best but that the management and Directors are fully focused, sucecss driven with good conservative attitudes whilst also realising the future digital world potential. Yes this is cyclic but livestock trade in good and bad economies and consequently not to everyones taste. But, cast your mind back only a few years and facing extinction - these guys avoided that admirably with this written off recovery a welcome $500k bonus. Patience investing with perserverance of management. I hold .
Regards
-dodgy.
Totally agreed