Hi Unicorn,
Would you be able to do an NPV for all of NZO please
I think you should assume revenue of about $120 million per annum right through.
Thanks
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Hi Unicorn,
Would you be able to do an NPV for all of NZO please
I think you should assume revenue of about $120 million per annum right through.
Thanks
Balance,
I am quite comfortable with 10% discount. At this stage close to half of the first years projected production has been achieved - there is no risk on that component. The production profile, and what has been achieved to date, shows a heavy front end production weighting so risk correspondingly reduces quite early. I seriously doubt that professional institutions will be discounting cash.
I would rather not attach my name to a npv calculation for NZO, as I feel it would be too unreliable. In particular I do not know enough about Kupe to come up with what I consider to be reliable figures for that project (and it is the major component of NZO's future). In simple terms Kupe is about 3x the size of Tui, but a couple of years behind. This year NZO should report an excellent result due to Tui income, but next year that should be expected to fall away as Tui production reduces markedly, before picking up again the following year as Kupe comes on stream.
Progress with Kupe to date has been okay, but not nearly as good as Tui. Kupe certainly warrants a higher discount rate than Tui, at this point in time, as costs and income streams are less well defined.
Npv calculations against $120M p.a. are
Code:Years @10% @15%
5 $454M $402M
10 $737M $602M
Bermuda, remember that is only the discounting of revenue. Not NPAT or cashflow which ultimately determines the underlying value of a stock.
A big chunk of the valuation must go in to the current earnings and projected earnings less expenses of course.
For some there is still too much uncertainty with PRC and Kupe. That where it is discounted. Also with the prospects of the company going to the market for more money has to be a factor in the supressed sp at the mo.
Make no mistake Tui is a better than even chance for further upgrade especially if oil stays consisently avove $70. worth noting that both Rio and BHP expect commodity prices to keep increasing over the next 5 years. Capex and operating expenses will go up but so will the oil, gas and coal if you are to believe what the big boys say
This year NZO should report an excellent result due to Tui income, but next year that should be expected to fall away as Tui production reduces markedly, before picking up again the following year as Kupe comes on stream.
End Quote from Unicorn
Unicorn your comments are always something to look forward to. I would say all considerable them valuable. Your comment above is the official line and what the market accepts, it is also the most likely to turn out to be wrong. Tui is more than likely to supply a revenue long enough that no dip will occur before Kupe kicks in. Am lookinh forward to AWE's AGM on thur 22 as it may highlight where Tui production is likely to stand.
Ok i should have included the figures.
Say we leave it at 40,000 daily. We will get more if we pump it more slowly,AND IT WILL BE WORTH MORE.
40,000 [365]=14,600,000
That brings us to 31 july 08
The field could easily and eventually likely yield 40 million so another year at 14,600,000 will give only 29 million. The balance will get spread over the next 5 years at a lowe rate. Seems reasonable to me and is my best guess as to what will happen.
I am not planning to sell,so whoever the sellers bermuda refered to it is not me.
I se on enegrybulletin.nett that some private conversation by saudies was broadcast live by mistaKE AND AS THAT INFO GOES AROUND THE MARKETS IT IS EXPECTED THAT TOMMOROW THE OIL WILL BREAK 101 DOLLARS.
Digger,
What the Saudi's are trying to do is protect the $US. Bush insisted that Saudi Arabia trade oil in US dollars in return for arms/protection.
THe $US is in serious trouble for a whole host of reasons that I wont go into here but suffice to say the USA is completely stuffed if oil is not tied to dollars. That is why Saddam got nailed.He started to trade in Euros. Iran is now working on an oil bourse in Euros as is Venezuela.The USA is building the rhetoric to nail Iran but last week the IAE supported Iran's nuclear program so much that Iran now wants a US apology.
It is getting very messy and now Putin is increasingly flexing Russia's muscles and working to set a bourse to trade oil in Roubles. Bush is in a hole and cant get out.
Putin has just been to Iran and now Chavez of Venezuela has said that oil will go to $US150 if Bush takes on Iran. Man, what an understatement. More like $350.
Bush wont get International support to go into Iran.
The USA is stuffed and are heading for a depression.Let's hope the growth of China and India can keep the world afloat.
Unless theres a recession overnight i can see only one thing happening. Oil going up and Iran being attacked. Is that 2 things?
Its also worth noting that Chavez predicts oil to go to $200 if the US attacks Iran
Interesting reading about the Tui project here (it is a 5Mb PDF file) ... http://wa.spe.org/images/wa/articles..._web_final.pdf
Thanks Unicorn,
A very good read. Cant wait for Thursday when AWE report.
I read the article while watching Lady Chatterley's Lover case on TV1.
Very good,thanks again.
Wouldnt be surprised if the JV put another 'prick' into Tui next summer.
Thanks for the link Unicorn......
...
Bermuda,
I thought you would have been watching Ali G in the House on C4...
:D
.^sc
unicorn, thanks for the link
the other article on the marine complex is near where we launch our 5m runabout - bought with proceeds of selling some nzo quite a while ago.
in the background is garden island - a really nice place to visit during daylight - the navy has the other end of the island and us general public are not allowed to saty overnight.
hopefully a big oil discovery by nzo will enable me to upsize my boat in a year or so
as regards tui , it must be very close to payback development costs and the awe read this thursday shouldbegood.
M
NZO now sub $1.00
IMO this is very much becoming a no brainer. 6 months gain on this stock looks strong especially with Kupe. PRC is still the main issue for me. All said we can expect further capex required for PRC and Kupe
Even i find it hard to understand why the sp would be at this level at this stage in the play. The company attitude to the shareholders is one thing, but surely not enough to drop the sp to this low. When the blue eyed brigade start preaching about peak oil, or how much money coming into the coffers they should remember it counts for nothing, its market sentiment that counts. This is where TA has it all over fundamental analysis. The study of the market counts for more than the study of a company fundamentals.
The market is telling the company it dousnt care about peak oil or how much money NZO is making in the short term. The market is telling the company it does not like its attitude to investors nothing more nothing less. Pass the parcel wont be much fun before to long its taking a bigger hit. Macdunk
I fail to follow your logic Duncan-when a share price is so depressed below its fundamental value plus a company that has such a valuable resource which has the potential to increase so much in value is just the time I like to buy(so bought more today ) .
Market sentiment can change so rapidly that you have to be in to win .
I have found it pays to listen very carefully to the sages-such as Unicorn .
Short -term one is always subject to the fickles of the market but next year the company will be working hard to get the options exercised .
I can understand the share price being at this level, and still falling. The AGM was incredibly badly managed, so a number of additional investors will have been encouraged to exit - and nothing has been done to attract new investors. Share turnover has been low, because there has been nobody to sell to, and momentum is firmly set towards the downside now. I would not be surprised to see the price slide further until someone in Head Office wakes up and does something useful or until it is ridiculously oversold.
The AGM was not only a lost opportunity, but also a poor reflection on the abilities of the new CEO. We now know he has failed to effectively manage an AGM, and we know that he has not delivered anything to shareholders from the record oil prices and the higher than forecast Tui production. It means that the hopes for a new, vibrant, shareholder centric focus for the company are fading away.
More than ever, the value is there. But more than ever, management are making a hash of it.
I agree with you totally. (well...to be honest your comment about Pass the Parcel has got a bit repetitive ). Nevertheless a Good post. Sentiment has to change. I have asked the company to put a financial plan in the next quarterly.
It would be a 10 year plan which would contain basic profit and loss material and show clearly the expected net profit.The message would be emphasized as " an expectation subject to market conditions."
This sort of detail is what the market want and NZO should front up and provide it. A lot of other companies do. Be accountable. If say.. an aquisition or something else comes along then just go to the market with a new Plan..... It ain't hard.
As you know this stock is severely undervalued. I really hope they give consideration to this proposal that I put to them this morning. I think you and I would agree that this would be a shot in the arm for the share price...and I think you would really feel part of the company.
What do you think? Appreciate your reply
All I have heard, (and particularlyfrom Bermuda and mob), and I don't like to mention names is how brilliant the new CEO is. We got told how Helen would improve investor relationship and what is happened, diddly squat,. The only people making dollars out of this company are the people running it.
Paddie
well can't believe the current SP what did the shareholders that are currently selling thinking? high Tapis oil prices just not good enough -100+ million gross revenue 07/08
2 more major projects to come -from my understanding TUI will with upgrades be profitable for many 8yrs+ esp. the first 3yrs
-JBmurc now holding 74,000 NZO
Well IMHO the opts being converted is got to be good for the company if they have developments & JV's needing the extra funds but if not converted NZO holders will have less delution still 200million in fresh capitial maybe PPP & NZO could do a drill in NZ or join with an ASX jnr in a JV and drill a decent well 50mmbl+ etc( STX has some great permits for one)
Hey if you are really selfish as you say you are ,you sure would want the options exercised. It would mean your one dollars investment made today will be worth about at least $1-60 by end of june 08. I would say you can not really be that selfish if that has not struck you hard already.
The share price at the end of june has to be worth above $1-50 for the options to be worth anything. Lets presume the sp reaches $1-55 which was my origonal estimate making the options worth 5c less time lost in the market waiting. People can then use the option to buy a share at $1-50 saving 5c on the sp. The result is more money for the company, but one more share in the mix.
The result of that would be that the sp would tend to drop back to $1-50. I really dont think the company is to concerned about the options being excercized judging by their in action to court investors good will. I think they now have enough money coming in to swill at the trough for a few more years without worrying about a trifle like that. Macdunk
Unicorn,
Remember that the Chairman controlls and "manages" the AGM .......
In what sense was the AGM a poor reflection of the CEO abilities ?
What sort of rabbit were you hoping he would pull out of the hat ?
My reading of the NZOG shareprice is that its discounted primarily because both Pike and Kupe still have quite a distance to go, and because of the inate constrictions that Kiwi investors bring to the NZX, particularly w.r.t. a resource company, just not comftable with the risks still attendant, and then also following the sub-prime fiasco, risk discounts have been increased world wide.
Zorba,
What do you think of my proposal.?
Wouldnt an abbreviated NPV spread sheet do wonders for the shareprice.? Plenty of room to keep things confidential but with a 'firmish ' net profit.
Cheers. Good to hear from you again.
some very good posts fellas. Interesting post from Unicorn with regards to the AGM. It is the first real time that anyone his given their opinion on the agm. As Unicorn points out, it is a fantastic opportunity for the company to show case tui and the upcoming projects, talk about where the company is going (with clear direction) etc.
I for one was very enthusiastic with the new boss coming on board. Unfortunately enthusiasm alone doesnt make the company money. The biggest opportunity was lost for investors to see a white knight from DS as a first impression is a lasting impression. Moving on...my confidence in this company, more specifically the management has twindled somewhat. even if the sp sinks to mid 80's or whatever, that is about as far south i can see it going but the upside is extremely large. A very good risk v reward scenario at the mo.
Nita,
Did you attend the AGM ?
No I didnt attend, however i have asked on feedback in the past. Any of the responses was pretty much ho hum and the impression i got was the company lacked direction on how it planned to achieve their target forecast.
Do you have a different view on the agm?
Nita,
I thought it got a pass mark, not a scintillating ra-ra-ra occasion, but a report on solid progress .... sure it didnt set the crowd on fire, but it came across as an honest attempt at communicating with shareholders.
TR was OK if a bit staid as he always is, DS was suitably lively, but thank god he is not a Rob Jones type drama boy ...... Question time was long enough, and people generally got reasonable replies ..... there was only one challenging shareholder that questioned TR's remuneration package ..... Ray Meyer (chairs the remuneration sub committee of the Board, TR not on this sub committee) answered I thought ok, but maybe overall on the subject of payments etc the Board and TR got off a bit lightly.
All AGM's are seem to involve upping the director's fees and this was no exception. Sure it gives a snouts in trough impression, and extra upping TR's perks didnt help either, but then on a comparative Australasian basis the director's and TR's rewards, after getting the company to its present position, were probably not excessive.
Its a pity that the three exploration holes didnt hit the big time, sure if they had then the board and management would be smelling of roses .....
But they didn't and thats the nature of the drilling game, the odds are not that good, but when you do get a hit then your into billions with even a modest strike such as the Tui discovery .....
Also note that they did hit oil columns in both Tieke and Tauranui, they just werent commercial, see AWE's last Quarterly Report. So you got to give the geological exploration effort some positive credit.
And good exploration geology is pretty important for an oil company !!
.
hanks for the feebback Zorba
Digger, you miss the point i think....
I agree that if the options are exercised, this will obviously mean a 60% return on my investment today, BUT would a 49% return and no dilution be better for me ie. shareprice at $1.49 June 08, and hence no options exercised.
I'm thinking no conversion would be better for all of us head holders, as I don't expect cash flow to be as tight as the last time options were floating around.
There is risk around PRC & KUPE - but what I am struggling with is that PRC was 80c oddd & generating -ve sentiment for NZO - It is now above listing & attracting buying support on good volumes - Why is there no +ve sentiment? I think it has a lot to do with the negativity of NZers which is probaly at an all time time given the rugby, league, cricket, netball debacles. McDunk is right - fundamentals have F all to do with the current SP
crikey the options would have to be a good play at the price...any comments
NZO at 97c ..what a stupid price!!
I thought DPC at $1.60 was a stupid price and now they are at 90c...
So deducing that I know nothing about Mr Market's mentality my hands will stay firmly in my pockets....tempting ,,tempting...no!!!!!
Tempting but convincing myself not to accumulate
TA....has fallen out of its trading range 100-109 ..downwards!! bad sign
World markets look dodgy..nearly wrote doggy..same thing. bad sign
but...
Oil price creeping back towards their highs good sign
PRC shares going up ...still....good sign
2 bad + 2 good equals ...a dilemma
No, won't buy...I will probably end up hating myself in the morning!!
Any lower and I'm topping up on heads.. Same with RAK
bought some more today
expecting crude to blast through $100 within the next couple of weeks
- that should "wake up" a few people.
.
Why would you think that? I bailed out of the options some time ago as I could see declining likelihood that the heads would be over $1.50 by exercise date which is fast looming. One can only conclude that the company has decided it will have no need of additional capital, relying instead on oil revenue to finance future development expenditure, otherwise they would be doing everything in their power to get the sp up. But if that is in fact the case, why would any directors or management be holding these options (Radford held over 3 million at 10 August last)?! Beats me!!!
Hi Bermuda,
Nothing personal, I know that you are a big fan of NZO.
It is obvious from the share price that NZO aren't doing a good job of marketing themselves.
With revenues that they are experiencing through TUI, one would expect the share price to be rallying, not in decline, and it appears almost like that they have two fingers in the air waved at shareholders. I am in favour of anything that you or anyone else can do to reverse the above. I am absolutely staggered that NZO have not tried to arrest the downtrend.
Paddie
I am sure that there would be restrictions on him selling , as he is management .
After having a chat with a number of brokers it is obvious they think the chairman needs to step down for NZO to gain their support. Without the support of the brokers and institutions NZO sp will continue to struggle. NZO is abit like RPL, where the investors and broking circles have given up on top level management. Time for these jokers to step down. Dont shoot the messenger please, I am only delivering what I heard through the grapevine.
disc: NZO shareholder
Who needs the support of brokers when your producing 5000 bpd @ over $100 per bbl. - you can't argue with production - it's as good as money in the bank - I think the brokers and instos will wake up when oil is in excess of USD 100 per bbl - not long to wait for that to happen. ;)
.
The CEO should be running the company, and should have significant input into the AGM. This year's AGM should have been focussed on the celebration of a tremendously successful Tui project. It should also have been used to clarify the "growth strategy". Instead we saw a pretty average meeting, still no clear direction - just enough information to generate unease among investors but nothing specific. It was an event that appeared to focus on management at the expense of shareholders.
The growth strategy has been very poorly promoted. It was approved by the board, but no details were given to shareholders at the time. Now the CEO has had his major annual opportunity to communicate with shareholders, and has still not made his intentions at all clear. This gives rise to suggestions that the new strategy will be as well managed as the last major project - "$86M and 18 months and Pike will be up and running"! I know of some people who have gained the impression that the company is in trouble, and hence has abandoned it's previous strategy for this new direction. That means communication has been very poor.
Tui has been an extremely successful project by any measure. While NZO management do not really merit much of the kudos, there is no reason why they should not claim a great success on behalf of the company. Instead shareholders have been presented with an announcement that US $7.5M had been received from Tui shipments. Production started in "July" and by the end of September only $7.5M was received! True if you are a beancounter, but hopeless presentation from a marketing perspective. There are few ways of making the figures look worse. Surely something more should have been made of the value (in $NZ, because the figures are bigger) of the oil extracted to date - a vastly larger figure. Instead all the shareholders received was some apologetic waffle that indicated that initial shipments may have been at a substantial discount.
The CEO has had an armchair ride, with the price of oil being where it is. There is plenty there to generate enthusiasm from. But he has clearly failed to generate buying interest in his company's shares - a good CEO of a public company should have that ability. Our new CEO clearly has not, at this stage.
Pike does not have any distance to go, as an investment. It is now listed and the market has set a value that takes into account any uncertainty regarding its operations. The value to NZO should now be pretty clear - and the CEO should have pointed that out, along with the possibilities for an increase in the value of that investment.
i think once financial statements come out clarifying how much they are raking in through TUI support wont be needed . Though in saying that it would be a heck of alot easier if management worked a bit more for shareholders.
Unicorn - has it occurred to you that the low key nature of the AGM may have been quite deliberate on the part of board and mangment
- that's the impression that I left with
After "over promising and under delivering" for yrs, maybe they have decided to change tactics and "under promise and over deliver" which, in my opinion, is a far better way of managing an oil exploration/production company over the long term
The shareprice will equate to the intrinsic value of the company at some stage in the future - I don't know when, but it will happen
As warren buffett says "the sharemarket is a mechanism that transfers wealth from the impatient to the patient"
/
Could be the case Mick. As a new commer to a company I would want to see someone who is confident in their own and company's ability to create value for its shareholder. As i have said, it was a golden opportunity for DS to to come in as the white knight.
Its worth to note, its not who the company or ceo is but how they are perceived. Clealry that perception isnt a good one from the shareholders perspective. When david came on board, things were falling into his lap and the sp increased. Now with the failures of the lates drilling, subprime etc, doing nothing or appear to do nothing will have a detrimental effect.
All aside, maybe too early to judge after just 1 agm (even thoough i wasnt there) but for the ones who were there, did he give you confidence? My overall take is he performed very mediocre..4 of out 10?
Nothing that DS said impressed me much - you would have thought that he had just joined the company the day before the meeting the way he was talking, ie , I didn't learned anything that I wasn't already aware of apart from this talk of aquisitions - and he's way behind the 8 ball there, imo - you would have to pay an arm and a leg to aquire another oiler today.
The point is this;
Does it matter that we havn't got the best chairman or CEO in the business - NZO is producing 5000 bpd - that's what matters to me
,
I have thought for a while that there has been a deliberate move to keep the good news to a minimum until the runup to NZOD conversion. A major PR offensive at just the right time might get the price moving so that it breaks 150c at option expiry. There is not a lot of liquidity, so when the share price starts climbing it could run quite well.
This is not a strategy I agree with - I would rather see a steady return to loyal shareholders rather than an environment that encouraged short term trading.
give TR a break guys, he is having a good time in sydney. its ok to have a good time...oil is flowing, it will eventually get a re-rating. only Yogi can predict when.
few other oilers one should have a look at : AMU/PSA/OEL
Congratulations to those that bought at 97cents today.I sense you got a bargain.I tried and missed.
It has got me stuffed what the answer is, but I do not think the current price is directly related to NZO management.
What is really strange is that NZO (-23%), PPP (-39%) and AWE (-21%) are all significantly off their recent 6 months highs. So either the market heavily priced in an expected discovery at Hector or the market does not believe that Tui is actually producing.
My guess is that the price will change pretty quickly after the next quarterly result.
Bermuda while i like the idea of a ten year plan,would it not in effect just open the door for more down ramping just as soon as something does not go the right way. I suppect the managment by now are aware of this and if forced to do a 10 year plan would greatly underpromice so to at least meet that target. An under target might be worse than no plan. Just a thought.
Why NZO is falling at this time beats me. Maybe expecting a hugh fine do to the oil spill,as all Tui partners have fallen. Also maybe risk of world fininical markets from subprime.It now seems that only money in the bank is accepted to the markets,as risk free.World fininical meltdown is on the cards. See even at the Indian resort of Taj Mahal american dollars are not accepted. Ten years ago that would be unthinkable.
So a ten year plan on todays rapidally changing world has some risks.One slip up and Sniper will reappear and remind us how NZO can never dilever as promised.
meanwhile in other news....
Sideline, very interesting !!!!
And further in the meanwhile ......
Nymex light crude cracked US$99 / barrel earlier today:
.
http://data.tradingcharts.com/intrad...4e64ae20b.png?
.
Just regarding David Salisbury,
I had 23 years in the oil industry, invested my money in it and retired.
I rate him pretty highly. Have a look at his background.
digger
Agree with you that a 10yr plan is a little ambitious but really investors need some kind of financial projections over the next few yrs under different pricing and production figures .
The company must have them . TR will have access to them . He is holding millions of options and shares and most probably knows they most likely will reach $1.50 or a lot more by June .
It seems unfair that many inexperienced investors wll look at todays share price and in their ignorance will sell options while Tr will hold knowing he is reasonably secure .
All my oil stocks are off at least 10% since the latest rally in oil prices over the past couple of months. No its not poor investment choices - all the oil related indexes are off by similar ammounts. What has happened is an interesting disconnect between the equities market and the oil and oil futures markets. The former is "saying" the recent increase in the price of oil is unsustainble and will cause larger correction in the price of oil, reducing earnings significantly in the oild patch. The futures strip is saying bull**** to that. My money remains on betting the latter interpretation is correct.
REL: 0932 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
MINE: NZO: INCREASE IN RESERVES FOR TUI
Oil Reserves for the Tui Area Oil Project have been increased to 41.7 million
barrels, 30% above the previous estimate and nearly 50% above pre-development
predictions.
The new figure for proved and probable (2P) reserves compares with estimated
reserves of 27.9 million barrels on which the Tui Area Oil Project in
off-shore Taranaki was first sanctioned, and an interim re-estimate of 32
million barrels following completion of the development drilling campaign.
New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd (NZOG) has a 12.5% share of the Tui Area Oil
Project. NZOG's share of the reserves has increased from 3.5 million barrels
(pre-development) to 5.2 million barrels.
Tui oil is a light sweet crude that is generally sold, with freight and
quality differentials, against the Tapis benchmark crude, which has recently
surpassed US$100 a barrel. The reserves upgrade for NZOG of 1.7 million
barrels, at current oil prices and exchange rates, has a gross value of more
than NZ$200 million.
The increase in reserves follows a reassessment of the field by the operator
(AWE) based on interpretation of re-processed 3D seismic, a more detailed
assessment of the Kapuni reservoir and the integration of the production data
from the fields since production began on 30 July 2007. The increased
reserves assume production from the existing four wells, plus the completion
of an additional development well in the Tui oil field, Tui-4H. Preliminary
planning for drilling of this well has begun, with drilling targeted for
2009.
Since the start of production on 30 July 2007, the Tui Area Oil Project has
produced approximately 4.4 million barrels of oil. Recent production rates of
up to 50,000 barrels of oil per day have been achieved, with the current well
capacity still substantially higher than the processing capacity of the FPSO
Umuroa. Water is being produced from the field, but at substantially lower
rates than expected. Based on the current reservoir and facility performance
and the upgrade in reserves, AWE has revised the Tui gross oil production for
the year to 30 June 2008 up from 10 million barrels to approximately 11
million barrels (approximately 1.4 million barrels net to NZOG).
600,000 buy order at 1.10
Go NZO!!! About time we had a good day.
haha yes indeed where the baggers today huh
PRC on a roll - Tiu pumping circa 130? million revenue - options worthless???
One has the feeling that there are too many ducks in a row to ignore NZO now.
Forget about a small correction. If there are a few believers out there then this stock could really fly.
Todays announcement is a real turning point for me. Especially when added with the volumes going through PRC over the last few days.
GO NZO!
And i am guessing NZO will be mentioned in the business portion of the news tonite now thats advertising you cant pay for now is it.
this is massive news for NZO... $200m worth...
SP should have reacted much stronger.....
NZO the little battler...
:cool:
.^sc
Yeah, the buyers are still holding back. . . not many willing to chase above 1.10.
are we waiting to see how ASX will treat NZO today i guess thats the question
Excellent news!!
Typical Kiwi investor response tho - obviously don't understand/don't want to get drawn into risky oil company investments.
By my rough calculations the share price rise values additional reserves at about $16 per barrel. Whoever got half a million at 1.10 got a real bargain.
I thought "in ground" reserves (undeveloped at that) had been selling for over USD30?
very good news re tui upgrade.
a progress report re kupe jacket installation is overdue.
kupe in long run will produce more $ than tui - even with the upgrade
see nzo made the announcement first on asx - instead of awe
M
Very nice :). It has broken through the $1.10 resistance, so should go north from here. :)
Dunk and Balance no where to be seen ?
I am painting the house have more important things on my mind than NZO. The options are still going to be worthless when the music stops thats when you will find out. So what an upgrade how much will come your way it will more than likely end up in the trough. Lot of investors still playing catch up who will be glad to get out they need to court a new set of the blue eyed brigade to take their place. Macdunk
Great, 9.7 million more barrels, or 1.2 million for NZOG @ $100 USD gives us $160 NZD extra. Divided by 360 million shares that would add a good 40 cents to the share price.
Of course to be discounted by
-this is oil in the ground, not money in the bank (things could go wrong)
-the money will only become available over the years
-some would say management will only spend it on higher salaries and more exploration
-some production cost (no idea how much)
on the other hand
-over time the oil price will only go up (90% sure of Peak Oil pushing it up, 10% chance of economic meltdown lowering the price)
-this almost makes sure that we'll have two years of full revenue before it tapers off. No financial problems supporting Pike or Kupe.
And then there is Pike, going strong and getting better as each day passes, with coal at record price
And then there is Kupe - about time we hear something about the project progress. I assume no news is good news.
My bet is that we still need one good result of one of the Kupe drills to push the options over the conversion - else it might be pass the parcel. But not yet!
well, hasn't this one been a lesson in patience... :)
well as reported by the herald NZOG as a "bright spot" in the market with head line
"Tui oilfield to offer larger bounty than forecast"
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10477697
This is the first time on sharetrader i have quoted myself. This increase i expected and in fact i do not think this will be the last of what will be achieved fromTUI. TUI H4 is still up the sleve and also maybe some extra vertical drill to find more pockets are very likely.
The market reaction is as it always is with NZO where it is consertive and esentially says show me the money. 30% increase will largely go into profit as the capx cost are already factored in.Very little extra cost will be required to get this 30% additional oil.
Probably the market has not yet fully factored in this good news as it is largely a down day on the sharemarket. NZO and PPP are swimming against the tide. Another big factor is in my quote of some days ago. It now means that going forward some years NZO will not have the dip in revenue between TUI and PIKE and KUPE. That when fully realised will be very positive. Market do not take kindly to revenue dips.
It has been said for a while now that the water cut is below what is expected, so will this mean higher production for longer? Will this also have led to increased reserves? Or just purely on seismic?
Digger, it looks like the 2010 financial year will have massive revenue with the drill for Tui-4H planned for 2009, and Kupe coming fully onboard then...pike will be fully operational and most likely ready to be put under the hammer.
Here I go ramping again. Up or down depending on your politics….
Re: Tui Project's improving the NZ balance of payments by one billion USD….the entire annual wine industry contribution…adding $25M in capitalisation to NZO
Altogether a miserable response from Kiwis deserting their own.
NZ Oil and Gas is obviously another candidate for the drain out of NZX.
After this a “one AWE share for two NZO shares” offer from AWE would look very attractive for a long time holder. Option holders may front with the $1.50 cash to participate.
Only 200M AWE shares required to take out 260M NZO shares and 140M NZOOD options.
AWE get a foothold in Kupe, more of Tui coin, increase interests in highly prospective PEPs near existing producing wells, and cash in their bank. Sale of the majority share in PRC and $210M in cash from Option holders, could net well over $400M cash to AWE (in just two months, by February, after the tunnel has reached the coal, bank funding has increased, and the coking coal price increase is announced).
AWE increase their cash, reserves, projects, gain a developing but promising NZ team, and every shareholder’s future prospects. Then assimilate Nexus and we have another Woodside in the making…dreams are cheap…so are NZ institutional share buyers….
Are (Dr) Cullens miserable miserly traits being cloned in this country?
NZX and NZ are the potential losers from this continued lack of interest and support in their home grown resource companies.
Oh yes, I know it was a down day in the US of A – but not for oil stocks.
Abit of selling hitting NZO. Nearly 1.5 million shares traded. I dont understand why people are selling at $1.10?
Fed up investors getting out while it's good? Probably a hasty decision, to be honest.
I am tempted to top up at $1.10 and accummulate more shares. Just biting my nails and cant make a decision!!!! :confused:
Just a classic buy on the rumour (hunch) Sell on the fact happening!
Those that bought sub $1 and are making a cool gain on those people buying on kneejerk good luck to em! Wish I had the cash to have bought after the Hammer candle the other day :-(
I am sure there has been desperate sellers for a long time and this gives them and exit chance. The upgrade, maybe partially already factored into is worth at least 25 cps. This is no brainer stuff and aprt from a colapse in oil prices, sellers today will kick themselves.
Macdunk. You always manage to find a black lining amongst a silver cloud. Meanwhile Balance is on medial leave..suffering from a major heartattack. He will come back when NZO dips another 20 odd percent. Except this will be when nzo is a lot more north than what it is today.
OK NZO, its time for your PR machine to kick in. Well done to the patient ones like Digger and Bermuda.
I wont be surprised to see the SP at $1.20 or more within a week.
ps. Anyone has Balance's addres so i can send him some sympathy flowers?