Maths is a strange thing.
How much would you pay to receive $3.00 if a standard, unbiased dice were rolled and the result was a 5 or a 6?. 50c, 70c, 88c or perhaps almost $1.00.
The most likely outcome is that a 1,2,3 or 4 is rolled and you lose your wager. Beagle thinks the most likely outcome is the government doing a huge bailout of Air NZ diluting minority interests down to nearly nothing. He's basically betting that a 1-4 is rolled on this dice. He may be correct and in this theoretical instance 67% of the time would be.
The interesting question is are there possibilities that have Air NZ getting through without a hugely diluting capital raise (the 5's and 6's in rolling a dice). I think there might be but I don't know if they are sufficiently likely to justify 88c. At least two exist:
1. The level 4 lock-down works and domestic traffic returns to fairly normal levels. Sure there's less international connections but then there's a whole heap of additional domestic tourism as all those people who want a holiday but can't go internationally travel domestically and "see NZ". Can NZ get through on this level of activity until a full international network is resumed? Possibly.
2. Developments such as finger-prink covid tests mean international flights resume as the entire flight is pre-tested as part of the check-in process. What is the health risk to the people on the flight and to the destination country if all the people on the flight have been confirmed not to have the virus before boarding the plane? I'd say its pretty much zero (if the test is very accurate). Does the test below have sufficient accuracy - I don't know.
https://www.medicaldevice-network.co...rick-covid-19/