Originally Posted by
SparkyTheClown
I agree First NZ are great brokers with an excellent research arm. But that doesn't mean I follow them blindly. (I was the one who first posted the $6.95 valuation on this website when it came through to me)
I have sold another 7% of my holding at $6.47. Roughly 14% of my holding now sold these last two days. That's enough for now though.
My own spreadsheet (which has served me well when identifying RYM as a screaming buy), now tells me that RYM is 25% overvalued on its 2012 earnings, and 15% overvalued on the expected EPS of around 19.6cps. (That is based on underlying earnings, rather than NPAT, which is how the company reports)
Now, if Ryman were to uprate their earnings growth rate to around 25% per annum (from a consistent 15-16%) for the next five years, I would consider the current price a good entry price.
However, I see that as hugely unlikely. It is possible an ASX launch may boost the price, but that is relying on "some greater fool" rather than earnings fundamentals.
I therefore agree with Paper Tiger above that people buying today are paying for an earnings capability that is at least two years down the line.
That being said, I still hold 85% of the holding I had as of Friday last week. It's hardly that I hate the stock, just that I think it prudent to take some profits after what I consider an absolutely stellar run since 2011. I wish those buying in in 2013 all the best, because it's still in my interest to see Ryman do well!