If John Key can get thousands of texts every day, surely PEB can get tens of thousands of tests over five years?
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If John Key can get thousands of texts every day, surely PEB can get tens of thousands of tests over five years?
It does all seem a bit harsh,
Black Knat is one of the most experienced investors on this forum and I think many including myself appreciate him taking the time to post, I'd like to hear a lot more from him actually. It is certainly refreshing to have an experienced business and life view from time to time amongst all the immature protagonistic rubbish that gets aired.
Likewise with Psychic, a very well respected fellow I think who spends many hours a week researching and who is willing to contribute and take the time to share that research, not something he has to do, and I think it is also well appreciated by most also.
The rules are the rules though I suppose, probably just a short ban considering they were probably provoked.
But, as Vaygor reminded me on another thread, and at the end of the day, slander is only slander if it's not factually true.
I guess if the market listened to all of us it would tear itself apart:):)
I think the frame of mind that the market largely ignores most of what goes on here--would help many to not get to aggravated with differing opinions.--I think deep down its easy to think these things are affecting the market perhaps more than they are.
Personally it seems that it is taking a bit more to impress Mr Market these days--dont get me wrong--Fridays announcement still gave things a good boost--but compared to similar things in the past,it didnt seem to have the same legs.
I guess outright name calling crosses the line--Still the CMS news was a good edition (to at least research)
Ill be looking for a new poster named BK or Whitefly..:)
Well,It can control whether you are rich or poor(depending on how heavily you are into it) but I get what you are saying.
I think SP is one of those paradoxes that can both be a result of what happens and can cause what happens (in terms of value)
I think more buy or sell as a result of SP than other factors,even fundamentals-(just my opinion)-In the end its all a matter of perception and psychology--One end of the spectrum is those who will not sell for any reason(fair enough) and the opposite end would be pure TA(perhaps mixed with a dose of fundamentals)who operate on trends lead by the SP---
One thing Ive noticed though is that the fundamentalists get far more PO'd with the TA guys than the other way around(attachment?)--(with of course the odd exception)
Analysts certainly seemed to have liked the HY, I think Haley and Peter have it spot on, time will tell.
“Craigs Investment Partners broker, Peter McIntyre, who predicted Pacific Edge had to deliver yesterday on revenue promises, said investors should be impressed with the result. ''This [revenue gain] is a quantum step forward for Pacific Edge. Even though it is off a low base, this half-year result is very impressive,'' he said. He predicted Pacific Edge, if it continued its form, would be positively re-rated by brokers, analysts and ultimately investors in the months ahead”
“Forsyth Barr broker, Haley Van Leeuwen, said progress appeared to be on target and believed Pacific Edge was well positioned to capitalise on the ''substantial opportunity'' in commercialising Cxbladder.''There is nothing in the result to change our positive stance and outperform rating,'' Mrs Van Leeuwen said”
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/3...-positive-sign
Hi all, new poster on this forum and currently holding PEB. Have been following this thread for a while and must admit it is interesting reading all the differing opinions and theories put up by those who are prepared to share there knowledge and time.
Will be interesting to see how the market reacts after a weekends digestion of the latest results.
Hi mdc, welcome to you,
It will be indeed, analysts seemed to have liked it per previous post and are flagging forward up-ratings, thats really not something they often do at all ahead of time, quite bullish really. Perhaps for Pacific Edge and patient shareholders there may be a nice up trend in the making, hope so.
Nice juicy order for 250k placed at 90. you might be right MAC
Sp moves up a few cents and the 'long termers' are almost besides themselves.
What does this tell us about them?
Hi Mac,
Yep, general consensus is positive this morning. My view is that the science PEB has is solid and the CxBladder test is better than those in the current market, I work in a medical field (Vet) and part of my job is to review scientific articles particularly around disease testing and treatments and I found that US meta analysis someone posted the other day was very interesting reading. It supported my view that PEB is onto something here, it will just take time for the data to accumulate to provide enough evidence for doctors to start trusting and using it, but if it does gain traction then you they will be away.
I too am pleased with my returns from PEB. I had one minor slip catching a falling knife but overall am a long way ahead. I had a sell order placed this morning but have pulled it on the strength of that large block at 90. Happy I'm still in. I think PEB will be a good trading stock for the next 6-12 months
It's going to catch up to its "valuation" - no doubt about it.
Nothing would give me greater pleasure than PEB reaching $1.50 on the back of real measurable transparent disclosed success in the US - I will buy then from those who are trading to give them their 50% or more return, and ride the next 500%.
Meanwhile, I maintain my stance towards the stock and its management.
Are you saying you will trust management and the integrity of this stock ONLY when it reaches $1.50?? Or, the integrity etc only gets stronger as the SP rises....so, if that's the case, I would wait until the integrity is at its highest Balance. Maybe you should jump back in when it gets to $3?
I am completely with Balance here and I think PEB's SP already is way ahead of where it should be. I can't believe that serious analysts say we should be pleased it's gaining traction after 800 sales in 6 months. What if next report it's only 1000? Two low data points to me doesn't indicate anything, I suspect that it is 90% retail sales in the US with a few doctors trying it just to see how it could work.
Anyway to me 800 tests doesn't represent "traction". Around 10k is the number of tests I am looking for before I would put money into it again.
Happy for others to be making money from PEB currently though, just be careful with what brokers say. The number of times they try to pump up SPs because they bought in higher and don't want such a big paper loss showing...
It’s not so much the starter sales that they are talking about Blobbles, starter sales while hiring staff are really not that important within the big picture, it’s the traction made against the commercial roll out plan that they follow and seem to be encouraged by.
Professional analysts like Craig’s, Forbar, Edison et al, have access to much greater information than the rest of us it terms of event timing and the number of user programmes etc.
As I understand, the individual urologist user programmes are 25 tests each and roll over after between 3 to 9 months, the larger LUG user programmes which have 100 or so urologists run 12 to 15 months prior to adoption, and the much larger KP user programme again should come to fruition next year.
Then there is CMS revenues accumulating ready to be invoiced, probably IMO once the two present US studies are complete and published to their satisfaction.
So, what the analysts are doing with greater confidence from greater information, is stacking those prospective new user programme revenue streams as a carefully evaluated forecast.
Clearly their consensus is 'up and away' based on the number of user programmes stacking right now.
David on the radio this morning
Big numbers mentioned as usual ....penetration, penetration yes into these big markets ....and don't forget the money in the bank
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/20159261
Sounds less convincing the more times I hear this story
Reminds me of the chocolate wars in China. Cadbury's 'penetration' was going to be if we just put one chocolate bar into every ones hand we will make zillions. East v west didn't quite work out, will in PEBs case be a product still being 'fine tuned' in NZ 'penetrate' this huge US market
C'mon a $1.10 shareprice .....squiggly lines are more important than the story (sorry fundamentals)
If in any doubt about the recent Forbar upgrade, here it is below at $1.25 with a BUY rating.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=PEB.NZ
I sense that there are posters here who actually think that those of us who write critically of PEB mean ill-will towards the company.
I will venture to write that there is not one here who has nothing but goodwill towards the company, and want PEB to be successful. NZ desperately needs companies to be successful in the field of medicine - Orion being a prime example.
When we challenge a company to be transparent and be accountable for their words and promises, it is so that the market as a whole can embrace their success and support them wholeheartedly too. Because companies like PEB will need more capital to become even more successful - otherwise, their sp languishes and as we have seen with many NZ companies (best example being Fletcher Challenge), their sp go nowhere and what is good in them get taken over for a song.
Accountability is the operative word here - just for the record.
Pacific edge told us the Cxbladder(triage) launch announcement would be before xmas too.
I think it’s entirely probable we will see it sooner rather than later, probably this week I reckon;
Don’t urologists play golf two days a week as it is, wouldn’t be a lot of point trying to get their attention right before xmas when they are also busy out shopping for next year’s new golf equipment.
But nobody is telling us that yes, it's urologists adopting the tests. Until that actually happens (not just plans for it to happen), or it becomes obvious, I don't believe we should all get too excited. Yes CMS will be good, but the ability to use/bill something doesn't mean it's being adopted.
Until we have clear indications of adoption, not just unfulfilled plans, we should not be over exuberant. I want PEB to be successful too but they are making too many simple mistakes in their communications for me to trust what I hear at the moment (10s of thousands not retracted, posting incorrect announcements, insiders selling when the SP tops out on news they provided, live feeds of their share holders meeting going down just before it starts etc... They have had a lot of red face moments in the past year or two).
That just leaves the cold hard numbers to analyse when not being able to fully trust the message and its not looking too hot in my eyes.
The conservatism is already well and truly built into analyst valuations Blobbles
They really are already very very conservative for the reasons you have outlined, that it's early in the curve and the trajectory is subject to key variables, price point, ultimate market share and take up rate.
Edison have this to say about their $0.42 to $3.57 valuation range covering those variables.
“Based on progress to date in the US market, Pacific Edge management’s target of NZ$100m in sales by FY19 for the group looks attainable. However, we err on the side of caution and model revenue of NZ$100m two years later in FY21”
I have never known an analyst be so conservative.
Once Pacific edge is a little further along the revenue curve and that conservatism falls away, watch as those valuations progressively creep higher over the next 18 months.
Any bizarre perceptions of communication issues on this forum are a non issue for serious investors in the real world, it's all just sharetrader forum knocker bollocks, in their heads alone.
I mean think about it. At $1.25 PEB is valued in the same ballpark as DIL (85m in sales, decent growth) and ATM (110m in sales, good growth). While PEBs margin is much greater than both, their product isn't yet being sold and has major obstacles in front of it to be sold. Personally I don't mind them having a high SP at the moment, but I am glad it's not me taking the risk. My gut feel says that including their potential ~60-70c is about right, but if adoption starts happening that would rocket to $4-$6 - just based on market value.
But $1.25 it's too high of a value to not have adoption. It's like a foot half in adoption and half not, at that level it represents a level of confidence that the adoption will occur that I aren't comfortable with.
It is the science that will make or break this stock, any major flaws from now on will have a major affect. Much more than spelling mistakes and rewording press releases to the market.
I agree that the analysts are conservative, and the longer CxBladder looks to be on track with both sales and success in trials the buller they will become. I seems to me that a lot of arguing goes on over things that in the long run are irrelevant to the share price if this test truly proves to be better than those currently available.
The degree of SP undervaluation is a very large margin now Blobbles, one shouldn’t get left behind as an investor waiting for things to happen, that’s not how markets work.
The smart money with better access to information and confidence re-value the SP before those whom may dither even know what’s happened.
I think you may underestimate the degree to which Urologists will take to a specifically tailored suite of diagnostic products, which outperforms any other test available, which saves them time, which offers their organisations cost savings, and which ultimately and most important to them, allows them to detect cancer earlier and monitor it more accurately for their patients.
Sales staff now on board ---> user programmes stacking up ---> forward revenues
That just lost you a lot of credibility. I aren't a mysterious "knocker", just someone who invests based on my perception of the integrity/ability of the people running a company as well as its potential and valuation. PEB only has a lot of potential at the moment, skilled scientists and seemingly OK American staff. Fundamental valuation is near impossible (2 dots do not a curve make), and a lack of ability/integrity when it comes to communication.
Labelling others because they don't agree with you is the actions of a child or small minded individual MAC not someone who is seemingly intelligent. Don't demean yourself.
It will be really very interesting also to get some more business plan info on Cxbladder(triage), market size potential, price point, etc. In addition to the clinical performance spec and value proposition also of course.
At present neither Forbar nor Edison have allowed for Cxbladder(triage) forward revenues within their valuations. The entry of triage as a new product into the market will also see analyst valuations re-rated upward.
See, this is where my inexperience confuses the hell out of me. I thought it was all about growing one's earnings (ie - net earnings) as opposed to sales. If it is about sales & growth....is that why XRO's SP is currently at $16.92? Are they too ahead of themselves - or was that only when they were over $40? What about comparing apples with apples (types of businesses)....or is this wrong too?
Looks like I'm forever the student....
No disrespect intended Blobbles, my point is only that this forum is far from representative of the greater investment community when it comes to views of company management.
What I think most see is a company with a forward growth curve that has variables, and a growth curve which management acknowledge has an upward but difficult to determine trajectory.
They have even told us that, and IMO they have been very open on their thoughts on the matter, more so than other companies, clearly a bit too open because picky people, yes including the knockers, seem to want to slam them just for making an effort to offer information that knowingly comes with a need for the aforementioned discretion.
It’s the continual attack of company management plastered all over the internet for the world to see, without company management having a right of reply, that is the only demeaning and childish action that I repetitively see.
That is blatant BS, MAC, and you know it to be so.
DD and CS can get the media to retract incorrect reportings and companies have corrected media reports (especially when the reports are way wrong) via announcements to the market.
What is stopping PEB from doing it?
Can you handle the truth?
And they have just last week, correcting a very important announcement in regard to european patents.
As for the media, I’ve seen nothing materially requiring any action whatsoever.
You may bang on with the same post in regard to 10,000 sales four times a day as long as you may wish.
IMO most out there in the world regard such statements from company management as a genuine effort to offer shareholders coarse advice to the best accuracy on the day and within a stated context.
Aside from the fact that such a statement may well prove to be quite accurate, time will tell, it was made in a context of a growth curve which has a difficult to determine trajectory.
Whether they put 5,000 or 15,000 tests through their labs in 2014, no further consideration to such a statement is required.
Apologies to others for feeling a need to state the perfectly obvious.
If DD and CS did not sell shares after the tens of thousands of tests comment, that's fine.
That is where you are out of line in your high horse BS defence of the company's inability to respond.
Still cannot handle the truth, that's your problem and will always be your problem as a blatant PR spin artist.
:D
It depends on how you measure the company. For Xero they have a huge market that they are just penetrating. They are therefore likely to be hugely profitable if they can keep up there growth rate up. Same with ATM and DIL. When measuring these companies pre profitability you take lots of these factors into account to get a good guide of future profits.
DCF helps especially around growth rates, XRO has high and consistent growth (plus a big wad of cash) and a huge market in front of it, hence the high SP.
I make no apology for taking the moral high ground Balance.
Any shareholders including directors can sell shares any time they like, not that they sold many really.
In regard to your favourite sound bite which you like to habitually quote out of context, to many it seems around about close to what is probable for 2014. It was when they said it, it was when they took some profits, and it is so still.
Good on them I say for taking something out for their families after many years hard work in building the company, now they get to renovate their homes was what I think DD told us he was going to do.
Oh Dear, looks like I might have inadvertantly given Balance another bone to chew. SNK and NZO threads are pretty quiet, Just as well he/she has got something to go on with!
BTW I largely agree with Balance on most of his/her rants, but I think it's getting a bit precious with PEB.
I listened to the conference call from the announcement on Friday. Nobody asked questions about smoke and mirrors, conspiracy theories, or quotes about tens of thousands of tests. Even the ODT jurno who wrote the article which included the tens of thousands quote was on the call, yet nobody was interested. Obviously they're to busy to look at sharetrader.
The other day I asked my boss if it would be OK if I called him Dick,
He said I would rather you didn't my first name is Robert.
Time for Balance to calm down and go out and feed the chooks. My poultry few are calling me to give them some love. Round two tomorrow I suppose. :sleep:
Man Tsuba--you are really into your outdoor activities--gardening ,Chooks :):)
To lighten up the day I thought it would be fun to guess who the 5 Muppet characters in Hancock's post number 11924 are? I'm pretty sure Balance is one of the grumpy old men? :eek2: Any takers to guess the other 4 ?
Mac and others,
You guys do realise you are able to block posts by certain users if you want to. If you don't think the poster has anything useful to say then it is great tool this forum offers. Might I suggest as well, that for people who bang on about the same thing over and over and over again, a further advantage of blocking there posts is that you never have the urge to reply to them, hence not feeding them exactly what they want.
I have no problem with the points some people are making on this site, but what gets pretty tiresome is logging in to see if any useful new info has been posted, only to have to wade through the same old debates page after page, day after day.
Still around black knat and I am about to join you on blocking......thanks winner69 for the info on how to do just that! Nice to get rid of pesky bleating negative types.... I go on this forum for info, not to read negative attacks on others which unfortunately some people with sad lives seem to thrive on.
A bit of fun and banter lightens the thread but poking the borax at the same people from certain people becomes tedious and childish. Most of the posters on here contribute in one way or another with their thoughts,charts, theories etc. All good stuff and helps round out ones own thoughts or perceptions. Really enjoy logging on and following PEB, one of the most enjoyable generally with some fun witty stuff- but not always and as is always the case the school ground bully or the man with too short legs struts his stuff behind a nom de plume. Sad really... But then that is life and we can make up our own minds who we support and follow and ignore the idiots that try to boost their own inadequate selves up by running down others....I for one will continue to enjoy this forum and now that winner, miner and other helpful chaps have explained how to block certain nasties, I for one am doing that and I suggest if it annoys you enough,do the same.
Gorgeous morning here, not a cloud in the sky, the sea is twinkling- by golly, life is good!!
Just for reference--Nasdaq and NBI have gone down over 1%(might mean nothing and dont want to get to far off subject--but good to keep an eye on)
your turn next Moosie....
:D
I think you have misinterpreted completely Skid. I was just prompting the third participant from the PALMY NORTH tag team to step up with the next negative comment, in a lighthearted manner.
And it was NBT whose rifle jammed, not mine
:D:D
If I didn't know any better I could be forgiven for thinking it was Palmy North being a little jealous of Dunedin? :)
I'm with Miner Lawnmowing Co on this one. His timing of accounting entries is absolutely correct.
There is no way in hell they will be accruing potential CMS tests as revenue. Full stop. Period. It is too uncertain and does not meet the accounting test of reasonable certainty.
If you guys want to continue a fruitless debate, please provide some facts.
I think you guys are forgetting your double entry accounting.
If you accrue something in Accounts receivable, what is the other side of the entry?? It has to be revenue - Debit accounts receivable, credit Revenue.
Then when the cash is received, the entry is Debit Bank, Credit accounts receivable.
For them to be accuring, there needs to be virtual certainty for the audit to sign off on it (of the contract and the price).
I've had a quick look and cant find any reference to accruing for CMS sales. If you can point me to the right page, I can take a look.
No need to waste your time HS, there are no accruals for CMS. I've already checked with the company, as I would have hoped others might have done before spouting the rubbish we've had to trawl through for most of the day
Hi Harvey, David Darling had this to say during the HY conference call, they are tests yet to be invoiced rather than tests accrued, kind regards, Mac
Do you feel that you're still on track with the application on that?
“David Darling: Yeah thanks Adrian, good questions. Yes, the CMS - it's not a
- I think it's probably good to point out here that this is not a piece of paper
that you fill out like you might have to do for a Federal supply schedule.”
“You have to interact with these people and walk with them on a path that
they prescribe. That path is additive, so they can change up the path as they
see fit. They require you to put together a dossier and engage with them.
When they are happy that they have all the answers they require then they
will give you a pass on your driver licence and you'll move ahead.
As everybody should know, the approval for CMS, Center for Medicare and
Medicaid Services is the public insurer. The public insurer - we are unable to
provide GSM technology to people who are insured under the CMS, that's all
people in the United States who are over the age of 65 would be eligible for
CMS, not necessarily all take that opportunity up.
However we can provide this technology to those people and we can keep
those invoices and submit them at a later stage when we have attained our
coverage the CMS.
We've engaged with the CMS. We're working with them. We're preparing all
of the bits and pieces for them and we're on track and very happy. They are
happy.
NG,
MAC's transcript sets out DD's comment on this, and here's the relevant part of the reply I got:
So, look at it this way - there are an undeclared number of tests being tracked as potential billing items IF they get CMS as a payer, but for now, NO revenue is or has been recognised in the accounts.Quote:
Although we do track US tests that may be potentially claimed against CMS in the future, no provision is made in the financial accounts for these tests.
The correct stance in the circumstances, don't you agree?
Or you could consider it 'marketing costs', especially if providing to those that have to have regular tests over a long period of time.
The Lab is sitting idle so the actual cost of the test must be minimal, the value is in the IP.
Even if they do get a contract with CMS, would CMS backdate the contract? The benefit would be having a existing set of 'customers' ready to submit claims to CMS for their ongoing test needs. The last thing you want is to push them to another supplier due to a short term issue.
NBT, I don't know the answer. All I take from the HY accounts is that there is no revenue recorded for anything to do with CMS. Secondly, nowhere in the accounts is there any mention of anything 'banking up' for potential invoicing at a later date.
It does seem clear to me that there is some chance of a back-dating of invoices in some form or other, (why would they say there is, if there isn't?), but no proactive emphasis has been put on it by the company
I'd be very surprised if anyone is counting on some back-dated tests being paid for in the bigger scheme of things personally. I'm not.
And of course, this clarification has been openly sitting on the PEB website for all to see for over 18 months now.
“Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder”.
The elderly, forgive me, the over 65, as a demographic have a much higher incidence of bladder cancer than other demographics.
There very probably are relatively quite a few invoices stacking up on Jackie’s desk, all good to go on the day, the longer they stack, the bigger step in revenue contribution they may well make.
DD told us at the AGM that this is the approach to be taken.
For CMS it releases any pressure that would otherwise be received from pushy applicants, for applicants like Pacific Edge it takes the pressure off to get coverage approval quick.
IMO, CMS are very probably awaiting the completion and publication of the US cxbladder studies presently underway in the US, just because they can, and there is all the time in the world for them to do so.
Some patience is required as investors, nobody else in the picture is in any rush, there’s no need to be so, and no other company disgorges day to day business workings like some seem to want from Pacific Edge.
I can't understand it because of the malapropisms. But are they actually malapropisms?
So if Joe Shmoe has been mowing my lawns for the last 6months or a year and back dating invoices for say $1000 and I say ,(after that time)that Joe is a good mower--then I get to pay him $1000--and if I dont think hes that good--well,you can see where Im going with this.
They are going in the right direction,but it still comes down to the same thing--If the big Kahuna is not on board,those growth charts are out the window.
Change in Obamacare-change in bureaucracy of a different Gov. --All Im saying is all the eggs are not in the basket to count yet.
Did we get clarification on the hic up in the tests? I didnt notice ,but if its sorted ,I stand corrected on that.
What if they just dont like the Bio marker as compared to the old style?
If they like the test results, have they given an assurance they will run with CX and not a competitor that comes up with a sweetener?
Is NP22 telling its shareholders this same story?
Not trying to throw a spanner but its worth considering..
Man you guys are schizophrenic. Do you want me here or not? One day the price matters (the up days), then it doesn't. One day the commentary us everything, and then when it doesn't appear it doesn't. Make up your minds!!!
I don't have anything to say anyways. Hanks chart (very, very ironically...) posted today speaks more than I could ever say.
Ciao.
This thread...
Attachment 6552
Seeing as everyone is building up posts I thought I had better add:
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
CMS announcement tomorrow?
I really dont see how this is considered irrelevant. In terms of everyone being hyped up on the tests (and sorry Miner-that 2nd page disclaimer is not convincing)
How is that going to translate into a glowing CMS announcement?- Bad news with a 2nd page disclaimer(sort of) is not good news in my book
-just looking for a bit of clarity on the subject
And this, ..... ..... who's there ?
Attachment 6553
Quite a few indulged in the mass debate today......
Hey Clint, do we have a policy on backing up invoices?
To get your foot in the door ANYWHERE, you gotta give heaps away for trials. Applies across the board: online accounting software, new building materials, pharmaceuticals, acne snake oil on tv. Free 30 day trial! just pay the postage! Aint nobody gonna buy your widgets if they cant try them. Keep on with the freebies to the industry, try the milk, try the milk, I got shares in the cow.