From an article on what John Key could learn from the Liberal epic failure in the Australian elctiom
"The hard-to-like Bill Shorten, on the other hand, actually had sensible policy that resonated with many. Shorten even stole some of Turnbull’s sensible ideas, such as removing negative gearing on investment properties"
If John Key sniffs the political wind and detects any prospect of failure next year, he will bail.