good move, look how Collins in aus is performing
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good move, look how Collins in aus is performing
I calculate 11% eps accretive in FY17. Is it really worth it for the risk of going into Aussie. Remember the unsuccessful Pizza Hut foray?
Current FY16 Fy17 forecast aus proforma proforma fy17 accretion sales EBITDA 52.8 58.1 15 67.8 73.1 Operating profit (EBIT) 35.2 40.5 45.2 48.73333333 Interest 1.2 0.2 3.3 2.9 Pre-Tax Profit (EBT) 34 40.3 41.9 45.8 tax 8.8 12.3 11.93694 13.0568 NPAT 25.2 28 29.9 32.8 Debt 14.9 5 82.9 73 Market cap 410.1 410.1 430.1 430.1 EV 425.0 415.1 513.0 503.1 EV/EBIT 12.1 10.2 11.3 10.3 eps 0.257 0.286 0.291 0.318 11.30% pe 16.27 14.65 14.39 13.16
Let's do the time warp again?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aizCMO-mI1Q
If you look at the NZ business, an investment in more KFC's is definitely more worthwhile than Pizza Huts. I also wonder what the KFC's look like and whether a transformation project like they did in NZ would give further profitable results.
It is an interesting decision though. More KFC is really just a scale and reliable cashflow story, rather than a growth story. Maybe this is an admission that bringing a new brand successfully into NZ is difficult given the issues they are having with Carls Jr.
Anything the Aussies sell and their own corporate kind do not want to buy, avoid.
The landscape in Australia is littered with the corpses and casualties of NZ companies making investments there - Telecom (twice), Air NZ, Fletcher Challenge, Warehouse, Equiticorp, Chase, Tower, RBD, BNZ, NZI etc etc etc.
Balance - the market loves it - share price up to $4.60 and more to come.
Hope it gets o $5 in next month - good time to sell I reckon
Good stuff there noodles. Helpful and saved me time and effort
(You do good stuff and it would look really professional from a presentation point f view if you were a little more consistent with how many decimal points you use. Just trying to help - no offence intended mate)
Thanks for the constructive feedback. Updated here.
Current FY16 Fy17 forecast aus proforma fy16 proforma fy17 accretion sales EBITDA 52.8 58.1 15 67.8 73.1 Operating profit (EBIT) 35.2 40.5 45.2 48.7 Interest 1.2 0.2 3.3 2.9 Pre-Tax Profit (EBT) 34 40.3 41.9 45.8 tax 8.8 12.3 11.9 13.1 NPAT 25.2 28 29.9 32.8 Debt 14.9 5 82.9 73 Market cap 450.2 450.2 470.2 470.2 EV 465.1 455.2 553.1 543.2 EV/EBIT 13.2 11.2 12.2 11.1 eps 0.257 0.286 0.291 0.318 11.30% pe 17.87 16.08 15.80 14.45
RBD was a very poor company.A lot of CEOs who promised a lot and all failed to deliver.
What a difference Russel Creedy has made.
I am sure he will work his skills in Australia as well as he has done in NZ.
RBD also has a very strong board.
These will increaseA bit more when the deal goes through, though it's sounding like an almost certainty.
Side note, it's a questionable move buying into Oz right now with all that's going on. I imagine that's why he's selling. That's not too say it's a bad move to buy, if you can weather potentially troubles times...
I remember in economics school they spoke of some types of business thriving during recessions, listing fast food as one of them. Apparently people lose their jobs, get depressed and can't be bothered to cook, but can't afford more than takeout. Having said that, economic theory based on the past is all baloney these days.
PS: are you staying with RBD long term Percy or are you taking the opportunity to exit too?
While Russel Creedy is there I will stay.
I see no reason to sell.
I really think when you find a really well run business you are best to hang on to it.
Over the next 10 years or so, I expect RBD will keep growing and keep paying increasing dividends.
The sector does reward the good players.
I also think logistics pay an increasing important part in RBD business.Supply chain management is very clever.
So the fundamentals in Australia are the same as NZ,good sites,good staff training,good promotion,good logistics.
I see RBD's management quickly getting on top of any areas of concern and they may infact gain better supply deals.
As I pointed out previously Creedy is well supported by excellent staff and a very strong board.
Percy, I hear that all the time - this time will be different when companies go over to Australia.
Have heard it from Telecom (twice), Air NZ, Tower, Zintel, Just Water, Warehouse etc and now, RBD (second time).
I would be cautious because Australia is a huge market and the companies over there have a different mindset than those from NZ. They play to win at ALL cost and they play in the international arena. That's why Australia have international companies like News Corp, BHP, NAB etc.
NZ companies are like 15 year old kids thinking they can play in the ARL.
Only way to play the game is to hire Australians as rough and as ruthless as their competitors to play in that market. It can be done as THL has shown.
But I would be cautious.
Have a listen to this percy. It is quite interesting.
There are lots of independent franchises on the east coast. There is an implication that these can be moped up. So there may be a roll-up play here.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/201791858/restaurant-brands-to-buy-large-nsw-kfc-franchise-for-a$82-point-4m
Yes you are spot on [as usual].
Caution.
Yet I think Glaxo started in Palmerston North.Graeme Heart started in Auckland,Ebos started in ChCh,Trilogy started somewhere in NZ.AWK is doing very well outside NZ.
Russel Creedy is South African.They seam to do well anywhere.
Also I think RBD have their NZ operations running very well,so management can focus on Australia,should they need too.
The upside,or opportunity, makes the risks worth taking.
Noodles thanks for the link.Certainly good to know they are buying a well run business,rather than a turnaround problem.
If it was another try at launching another try on a baked bread franchise, I would be wary. But fried chicken it is so I'm all in. It just unfortunate that I don't have much now after selling most then close at 4.50. As said previously, this just don't stop on giving you something good :t_up:
Good points, Percy.
Let's wish them well and there's some skin in the game from the the vendors who are taking 5m RBD shares. Like to know if there's a lock in period however.
We need NZ companies to do well when they venture overseas so NZ does not keep squandering billions of dollars in overseas misadventures.