On osmium, i believe we will see their next round of buying if there's NZD/USD currency weakness.
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https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...15-p58iua.html
They have the exact same challenges as Sky. I doubt they would do very well in an IPO...but clearly Rupert and Telstra see an end game where the business is listed.
Could be an opportunity here for Sky, or maybe not.
A Super Aggregator would have a better chance though. I like Foxtel's new STB too - it looks sexy.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12474199
8 - 11 times EBITDA for Vocus when Spark only gets around 9!
Amazing.
the prospect of similar high dividend yield would be very tempting then, especially in this low interest rate climate
Sky TV? Low end of projected EBITDA is $110M for FY22. So we are currently sitting at 3.2x EBITDA. About 4.5x Adjusted EBITDA (IFSR16)...but then you would need to make a similar adjustment for Orcon Group...which would probably push their adjusted EBITDA range to 9x-12x.
Insanity.
Yes, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
And that is ultimately why no tie up between Vocus and Sky could be possible.
The market is downright effusive towards Vocus if those multiples are anything to go by, and still down on Sky...even though Sky is likely to produce far more cash than Vocus for the forseeable future.
The sooner we become a telco the better. A merger with Nzme could help accelerate this. Sky would have endless free advertising options galore accross differrent mediums, radio, web, tv. Think how 2 degrees got that market share? great advertising with Rhys Darby.
Thats how I’d do it. Become a media conglomerate, tack on telco, bundle up energy. Economies of scale, higher multiples applied.
The latest CFO appointment would help with this strategy.
Hell, change the name to something with less bad juju and more marketability.
Imagine one company that you got the following from
- Data/Internet
- Entertainment
- Music
- Phone
- Utilities
- News
- Sports
This company would have the stickiest customers imaginable.
The relative values for NZME and Sky TV and looking a lot better now. $187M vs $352M...which is probably a reasonable reflection of each companies underlying Owner Earnings (proportionally).
You could do a merger right now just using equity, no cash needed, and the new combined entity would be worth more than $539M ($187M + $352M)...with Owner Earnings probably sitting at around $100M for FY22, and then growing significantly after that once Sky finish the major spending on broadband and the new STB.
Combined EBITDA would probably be around $180M in FY22 with large scope to grow. Even a 5x multiple would be $900M.
Not crazy to think that this is what Osmium would want...though they would probably like to own a bigger share of Sky first to reap maximum rewards from their ownership in both Sky and NZME.
But we also know that Sky TV conspiracy theories never seem to work out - so definitely not trying to make any firm predictions here.
disagree with this as Comcast is primarily a telco (americas largest broadband provider) - and going by the logic of what you just said they would have no desire to buy another content provider (especially after the post acquisition skyUK earnings tanked) that would be the opposite of what you just pointed out that AT&T is doing.
Don’t let your facts get in the way of theory mate!
https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.h...234955676/amp/
Interesting write up. Note how it also says Comcast don’t want to buy media companies outright but are more open to JV type arrangements.
I believe they approached SNT with a JV type offer (not a takeover) but the offer was not favourable enough to SNT shareholders to go ahead.
They don’t want to buy Sky outright, so any hopes of some kind of deal with Comcast at this junction are unrealistic.
i just don’t think there is anything that Sky has that Comcast would want. As referenced in that article, if their aim is to acquire or partner with media companies to enhance its content library for a worldwide streaming Platform - Sky NZ has zero content that fits that bill. The only content it produces is based on intellectual property owned by others (the sport content), it has no intellectual property content of its own that could be added to a worldwide streaming platform (SKY UK on the other hand had lots of intellectual property production). Furthermore - sky’s current content licensing with the likes of discovery & warners/hbo would likely be at risk for renewal down the line if Comcast owned skyNZ. The best that could be hoped for is status quo.
Well yes and no.
For the right price, a JV with SNT could still be favorable to Comcast because it would mean it has access to Sky's large customer base and would get a share of total revenue generated. They would stand to earn more money from SNT that way over time than it gets from the NBCUniversal deal it currently has.
While the SP was low and Sky was vulnerable, it seems they did make an approach of some sort. But it was opportunistic, low ball and there was no way a friendly deal would be done.
It is very clear though that Comcast are not that interested in full blown takeovers...and whatever discussions they may have had with SNT are in the distant past now. No real cause for continued speculation that they are going to make a play for Sky.
Comcast has over 70 million customers and ~$110 Billion USD revenue. An acquisition of Sky NZ would be a sub 1% addition to its metrics and very low on its radar I would say (unless it was dirt cheap, which it no longer is - and even then the regulatory hassles are probably judged a waste of its time and resources). If it could bundle up Foxtel & Sky NZ it might look like a deal of meaningful size worthy of consideration perhaps (and of course foxtel alone would also be a better target for Comcast).
Are you expecting the people that were responsible for purchasing SkY UK for a vastly overinflated price who then watched its profits tank to come out and say “nah we screwed the pooch on that one - it was a stupid decision”. Or do you expect them to try and spin it as “it’s not about the profits” (despite using that as the original purchase rationale) “the brand name alone is worth heaps” like they appear to be doing now.
Don’t get me wrong - I would love it if they weren’t put off at all from that purchase and swooped in to buy Sky at 50c a share. I’m not investing on that basis though.
Sticks and stones bud �� as previously noted, I’m relatively comfortable with my holding!
Just for the record, I’m not sure i/me/you/we can lose…. comcast takeover = happy…. nzme merger = happy…… absolutey nothing and BAU = happy…….. building sale = happy……
Must be a bat ship crazy nutter that takes a large position when you can’t lose.
Happy being that nutter. GLTAH!
Entered a position as I thought it was deeply undervalued from both a remaining independent operation perspective and as an attractive takeover target. Now it’s nowhere near as undervalued, but still opportunity for good returns if dividend resumes or a private equity takeover emerged. I was rather disheartened following the last earnings result, but since then the market has woken up a bit.
I still think though they should split the company in two and separate the cash cow satellite business from the content rights and streaming products.
Right now
AB’s vs Boks
THIS IS WHY WE HAVE SKY!
PANTHERS leadIng STORM
PANTHERS v RABBITOHS in final next week
EPIC
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...y-championship
Haha, man Spark will buy anything so long as it is sport.
The viewership for this in NZ will be so damn low. Only a fanatical rugby head would stay up to watch these teams play. The Saffas being part of the competition isn't going to be a massive draw card either for most.
I hardly call this inroads in getting rugby back on their menu. I am just relieved Sky didn't win the rights! Hopefully we didn't even bid for them.
LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL. On what planet will kiwi rugby fans ditch SR Pacific in favour of this tournament?Quote:
However, with the inclusion of the four big South African teams, the United Rugby Championship threatens to rival Super Rugby Pacific and the English and French leagues to be the premier club competition in the world.
Good on ya Jeff. Keep bidding for this kind of content...it will mean you have less money to throw around for the important rights :t_up:
I thought the same when I first heard about it and judging by the few comments on that article, everyone seems to agree. I don't even think the South African teams will be a drawcard considering how poor they were in Super Rugby for a long time. Hopefully Spark pay big money for this 12s competition that Steve Hansen must be being paid for to talk up
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...e-irresistible
Although I like rugby, I've always preferred rugby league for various reasons but generally because it's quicker game with less stoppages. It has flaws too such as the almost non existent international game but I'm happy sky have the NRL rights through to 2027.
Rugby has tried to speed up the game with rule changes but until scrums are sorted and the terrible advantage rule gets changed, where a team could play for a few minutes only for a penalty to be given way back in play, it will always be slower.
https://www.ft.com/content/eec0e585-...3-ed2afccb7269
Very interesting development.
Well I certainly could not bear to watch any English Rugby.I have always thought English rugby is the most boring,however after Saturday night I think they have competition from South Africa.
I noted the English ref was very used to unnecessary stoppages,...Could not stop blowing his whistle for more tea breaks. Hopeless.
Bizarre, when I entered the link from a google search it let me in to read the article before.
Anyway, just talks about how Sky TV UK are going to be developing their own Smart TVs. They want to further cement their status as the content gatekeepers...NETFLIX already pay big bucks to other companies to ensure their app features prominently on their hardware.
So it seems Sky UK are going beyond the STB to enter the TV market. Using the savings they have made on Sport rights recently to help pay for this new initiative.
Comcast seem happy with their purchase and the future prospects too based on some of the commentary from them.
Totally agree although I am a convert from league to Union. League is dead in the water and will never have an international appeal, Rugby stole that march decades ago.
The United Rugby Championship will amount to pretty much nothing so let Spark pay for it - I won't bother to watch.
Rugby needs to get it's game sorted for Christ's sake - scrums gotta become simple like League - they are infuriating And also agree, drop a player or two. A better product here will bring viewers back to SKY. Many of my mates no longer watch much Union it's gotten predictable - this attrition can't help SKY.
I hope SKY didn't bid for the UFC. Give us French rugby domestic tournament - now that's a fine version of the game.
Share price looks a bit sad when its 1.xx something
$1.99 sounds a lot cheaper than $2 a pop!
It will be interesting to see when Osmium top up next. Their NZME investment came in waves, sometimes with months in between big purchases.
Still no news on the property sale. Doesn’t look like Sky have been swamped with superior offers too good to refuse.
More chatter about the prospect of a Sky TV Television.
https://www.trustedreviews.com/opini...v-work-4169621
Similar to TVs with Freeview bulit-in.:cool:
More info leaking on the Sky TV television...
https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.ph...ilt-in-tv.html
'Sky Glass' is what they are calling it.
Oh **** the Cage is back. Time to sell.
Re: property sale.
KPG just announced that they paid $27.5 million for a 7,144sqm block of land next to Sylvia park mall. That’s $3,849 per square meter.
thought that might be useful for judging how much sky might get.
How big is sky’s property in sqm?
(I am aware the land KPG just purchased is more valuable to them than others due to it neighboring their existing landholdings, so price is probably a lot higher than what it would normally be).
26500m² * $3849 = $101,998,500
:D:D:D
Attachment 13021
Disc: Holding SKT
Developers are paying on average $1850/m² for land deals through my work. I was also offered 1.2m for my 645m² property earlier this year.
26500m² * $1850 = $49,025,000
Probably a good guess eh.
Epiphany.
Random thought popped into my head this morning while reading about the 2degrees founders attempt to start a new supermarket chain.
So starting a new mobile network is incredibly hard, due to the fact that customers on a mobile network are by definition “mobile” - which means creating a new network requires it to cover the vast majority of the country to be viable. This is widely understood and not a surprise to anyone.
However, this is NOT the case for the relatively new “fixed wireless broadband” market, currently only being operated by the three major wireless networks. But the “FIXED” in fixed wireless broadband refers to the fact that all of the customers using this service are NOT mobile.
Therefore it would be possible for a new entrant to create a mobile network that only serves the fixed wireless broadband market in chosen locations, without a need to build a national network from day one. The major asset needed would be frequency allocation. So if a company could get there hands on access to a frequency, the cost of deploying mobile network towers is relatively small when only deploying them in specific target markets which would likely see a good return on investment. After a significant period of time, said company may have deployed towers in enough areas (say every metropolitan center) that they may consider the viability of a nationwide mobile phone network as also being a possibility in due course.
Too long; didn’t read version: It’s potentially far easier to launch a fixed wireless broadband network than a mobile phone network.
but I would see its service offerings as a bit weak if it didnt also offer a proper mobile service. just my thoughts.
I can’t see them making this kind of investment, and not sure how popular it would be anyway.
This would be a big shift in thinking given they have only recently done a wholesale broadband deal.
From this junction, their best option is to merge with Foxtel and become a much larger organisation with real scale.
Working our relative values would be a cinch.
Ummm.
So…I was the first one to suggest that sky and Foxtel combining could make sense.
You have tried to jump on that bandwagon in your unique maniacal way.
Furthermore, I am not pushing any ‘conspiracy theories’. I am not predicting that any kind of merger is likely to happen.
Simply stating an opinion that this kind of transaction could make sense.
You never could discern the difference between hypothetical and topical discussion with trying to pump a whack job theory.
This product has nothing to do with a mobile service or mobile phones.
to clarify this is “Fixed wireless broadband” which is very different to “wireless broadband”. One (fixed wireless) is a standard stationary home broadband connection that you use as a Wi-Fi router etc, the other (wireless broadband) is data plans for mobile phones.
fixed wireless broadband is the broadband service where a router is still used that is plugged into a power plug in the wall, in much the same way as a fibre connected router does. The difference is that instead of connecting to a fibre or copper connection it is using a 5g radio. Spark & Vodafone are pushing as many people as possible onto their fixed wireless broadband products as they collect 100% of the revenue from those products, instead of having to pay the majority of revenue to chorus etc for a fibre connection.
Fixed wireless broadband products are very profitable and have nothing to do with a users preferred mobile phone network.
https://www.afr.com/companies/media-...0210923-p58u01
You would not be completely insane to think that they might at least test the waters with Sky.
Foxtel probably worth 6-7x Sky TV given the size of the market they operate in (and therefore bigger upside potential). But then they have $650M in debt whereas Sky has a clean balance sheet.
So probably not quite as straight forward as saying each company is valued at 'x' times EBITDA...but not too much more complicated than that.
I think it would be better than doing a deal with NZME.
Both Sky and Foxtel have avoided becoming fully fledged telcos - they each seem to have wholesale broadband deals. So their thinking around the "do we need to become a telco?" question is probably aligned.
The new company would have a potential audience of 30M across Australia and NZ, both growing their streaming audience while still serving up content via satellite distribution. The combined entity would have a much stronger negotiating hand with rights owners, and it would also mean that losing a contract (like NZR) would be less of a big deal. They would just take the $80M/year savings and invest in other content or growth opportunities without anybody expecting the loss of a single contract to mean the end of the business.
Foxtel have launched a sexy new STB and we are going to do the same within the next few months.
Of all the possibilities that have been put out there by myself and others, the most obvious one (Foxtel) has been staring at us the whole time.
So it will be interesting to see what happens. Unless and until then, the most pressing need for Sky is to wrap up the property sale and lock in a good price for the campus.
Stock price now 14% off its recent 2.20 high.
are we heading back to the 1.70-1.80 wastelands?
Remember what's been said about SP being just a reflection of market sentiment. Maybe what's happening in the US & China atm, with the debt ceiling and energy crisis, is depressing the market. I only see sub $2 as a great opportunity to increase my holding.:t_up:
Pretty sure today’s sph notice mentioned that they had 5% of the company but that the stocks were “loaned”. Could they be shorting the stock and causing today’s price drop?
More sell off - down to 1.85 - any news of note?
And dont worry guys this pussy will happily lap up any discarded shares :t_up:
My money is not earning any interest with ASB anyway, so would rather top up in case of dividend next year. I'm in this for the long term so not too worry about the downward trend yet.:)
I cast my eye over the SPH and was a little confused.
It looked like their holding hadnt changed?
Surely if they loaned it out as the second part implied then they dont have beneficial interest anymore and should've declared a lower holding. But yeh its not worth much brainpower as MT says.
I reckon if they joined up they have the potential to become an absolutely HUGE (like Trump HUUUUUUUGE) company. They would be one of the juggernauts by NZX standards on Day 1 anyway.
Spark Sport would almost certainly throw in the towel. It would be Spark's third failed attempt at entering Live Sport.
That SPH looks like they have a lot of shares in various entities (See annexure A at the bottom), but have acquired 120,000 more on loan for some reason. Weird. Perhaps they are just nominees/acting on behalf of many individuals?
Sold a week ago to chase something shiny, I was quite worried that the property sale would have been announced in the interim.
Super happy that I effectively increased my holding by 15% in the process with my other gains and the share drop today allowing me to buy back in cheaper.
Brought on the asx to try and milk a few more % gains from the currency variations. And so the long wait begins again, albeit with a cornerstone investor who allegedly wants to increase their stake and a very valuable property to be offloaded.
Still exciting times ahead
Write up in the Herald about Foxtel.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12476212
If Foxtel do IPO next year, it will be an important valuation benchmark for Sky I think.
They are aiming for north of 10x operating cash flows based on pitching Foxtel as a growth business. All growth coming from streaming.
If that holds true, then even if the Market didn’t see the same upside potential for SNT…I think you should still rationally expect an operating cash flow multiple of 6-7. That alone would be a valuation of $600M-$700M based on the low point earnings expected in FY22.
And if Sky succeed in their turnaround (and we are following the exact same strategy as Foxtel, only about 6-12 months behind…) then we can expect a higher multiple of higher operating cash flows.
Or yeah, we could all short cut the whole thing with some kind of a deal.
Let’s say Foxtel have an EV of $3.65B to keep numbers simple. They have $650M debt. So their quoted value is $3B.
Let’s say Sky get the low end valuation of $600M. But we will have ~$100M in the bank after the property sale and no debt. So EV of $700M.
You create more shares in Sky (easier to do now that we only have ~175M s/o) so that Foxtel own 77% of the new entity and existing SNT holders have 23%.
I think a split like that would be fair to all, and both would stand to realise significant upside as the new business is better positioned to reduce costs and flex muscles in important content rights negotiations.
Yes, the two businesses are literally identical in every single way.
And both have content deals with the same studios.
It is the most ‘obvious’ option, if a deal is to be made.
A combined entity would produce revenue north of $4B within a year or so.
EBITDA would be around $450M, implying underlying Owner Earnings of $250M+.
That’s when Spark throw in the towel for the third time.
https://amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampprojec...30-p58w6m.html
They even use the same ‘capital lite’ terminology that we are using.
Clearly we talk to these guys a lot and we stole that term from them.
Still no update to the property listing in respect to studio one.
Odd to think they havnt after saying level 4 and ppl not being able to inspect the site was reason for delay.
Interesting excerpt from the 2008 Annual Letter...
See? We used to be good mates with Spark!Quote:
One of the more important partners has been Telecom New Zealand. SKY and Telecom have worked together for over 10 years to serve our mutual customers. The current arrangement has expired and we have mutually agreed to extend the arrangement on a month by month basis until either we are able to negotiate a new contract or terminate negotiations.
Though it looks like the wheels started falling off in 2008...
Its hard to know if Ogg is a brand of coffee or Mr Tea is a sasquatch or they are two sibling rivalries or one is in too deep and one not deep enough or one is a forced celibate and the other cant get enough and is occasionally rewarded when the s/p moves. All in all it doesnt matter, is very entertaining, with snippets of good analysis mixed in with the ifs and maybes.:t_up:
Ogg may become a taxpayer again, when SKT spit out a div .. ;)
then he may be considered a full time investor
Let's hope the Socialist Clueless dont decide to pay the same degree of their love to investors
as they have Residential Property Landlords ;)
Mind you commercial LL's are now seeing their share of the Love out of Labour's love affair
with lockdowns & the left's vision of prescribed control syndrome ;)
Ogg, how you feeling about the merger? Jilted? Watching Bridesmaids?