Maybe things are not as rosy as everyone expected.
Interest rates on the rise
house prices struggling
inflation rising
covid hanging around
wage pressure building
Tradies impossible to find
govt's endless lockdowns
Printable View
Maybe things are not as rosy as everyone expected.
Interest rates on the rise
house prices struggling
inflation rising
covid hanging around
wage pressure building
Tradies impossible to find
govt's endless lockdowns
Lol that $1.43 line just got loaded up.
94 cases today...new record...we're never getting out of this...never mind I went to the beach today and went looking for beached whales...thankfully none were found and I had a good time https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS
Where is the light over the hill for OCA?
House prices record high.
Aging population saved from corona and growing in number.
Maybe if it isn't there now and with these favourable conditions, then it may never be.
This thread is becoming a never-ending roundabout of "Go OCA!" fist bumps, followed by "the sky is falling!" doom and gloom negativity.
The SP drops. It goes up again. As some of you have said, many times, the market sets the SP. It is not a realistic or accurate reflection of anything. If you still believe in the company, hold/buy more, and stop stressing. If you don't, get out.
I hate to say this, but sometimes the discussions here, have a great deal more in common with the Sharesies Share Club facebook page, than you might realise.
We're bored in Auckland got to have something to talk about
No need for apologies. I wasn't trying to have a dig at anyone in particular. Boredom and the need for a distraction, is a valid reason for why many of us are here - me included. I am just feeling lately that discussions here are no longer motivating or exciting me (from a beginner investor point of view). Everything seems to just meander around in circles getting nowhere.
It's probably just me. Had an awesome few days by the sea, in my happy place, and now I'm home and back to reality. Post holiday funk ;)
It is a little off topic at times but I don't mind reading some inane chatter if it helps you guys deal with lockdown pain. Some of it is funny:t_up:. Feel for everyone up there:)
Yeap...people living outside Auckland have no idea what its like here.
Living under the threat of the Covid bomb feels like living under this...gives others some idea what its like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds6mvK4olQ4
But...our forbearers fought wars for years in the trenches...all we have to do is fight this Covid war from the couch...or the ICU hospital bed if there's any left that are available :eek2: so I suppose its not so bad...
Better buck my tone up...can't have others feeling the real Auckland blues...
As you were Ladies and Gents...its all good, $3 in 3 years according to Couta1's neighbor...what could possibly go wrong lol
OCA report half year next month so i've done some sums
H!22 Underlying earnings to be about $36m (heading towards $80m full year.... eps 11 cents)
Book Value September estimated to be $1.41
so share price should be $1.75 by Christmas and over $2.00 come full year announcement May next year
"terrible grammar "
no Gamma on this stock.
some alpha coming according to WinnerGrinner.
But SUM other stock did produce the alpha.
very small font though..
Yes...I think the real NAV (Net Asset Value) including developments in progress and all units valued at current sale prices, (not arbitrarily heavily discounting unsold ones like CBRE does) will be very close to that figure but what they report will be somewhat less.
Those that believe that you get the most grunt in this sector by buying right on the real NTA should find this a compelling buy at this level....but I am wondering more and more if customers really want the "resort style" facilities that the others provide....but best ignore me today...just another groundhog day of living in Cindy's prison waiting for the Covid bomb to inevitably hit and wondering if Mrs B who staunchly refuses to vaccinate will survive the hit. Yeah, life's "just marvelous"...
I hope she changes her mind beagle.
My wife has lots of friends overseas who's family never got a chance to get the vaccine (didn't exist in scale then). They lost alot around them. The stats for vaccinated and unvaccinated overseas speak huge volumes in how effective it is. It may not stop you catching delta but the long term effects are horrible. I had a work colleague catch the originsl here in nz in the first put break. His whole family were fine but he ended up in hospital and didn't return to work till 1 month after the first lockdown has ended. You can imagine he had no problems going to get the vaccine when his time in the line came
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elepha...oint_Reyes.jpg
Unhappy shareholders barking.
I would love to think you are right Winner , that would be truly awesome but I'm thinking you're a tad optimistic.
Agree with your book value though.
Lockdown will affect this HY and the other big thing is that they are selling down their new stuff mostly in Nelson and CHCH. They don't make nearly as much new sale margins down there.
Since you've got the ball rolling, my expectations are as follows, (hy1-21...hy1-22...%difference)
Care profit 10.5m...13.5m...+28%
village profit 34.8m...31.3m...-10%
underlying profit 23.6m...25.1m...+6.3%
* note that general overheads come off the 2 profit segments which is why care and village profits don't add up to make underlying profit.
Like most of the analysts my FY profit is also $60m or so....+20% yoy.
This year the rising care profit saves the day for the falling village profits (village profits will be less this time as in the PCP 1HY21 was mostly expensive AKL apartment selling).
Beagle, you're very good at this, what say you? or are you too depressed today and just gone for the sauvignon.
Feel a bit better, (off a very low base this morning), after a good walk. My Mum used to say its not good to skite but yes I have got the last three reports regarding underlying profit, full year FY21, half year FY21, and full year FY20 very close, thanks for noticing.
To be completely honest with you this time I haven't given the half year underlying profit a lot of thought. The truth is with all their care suites and care beds and the way they report profit on those outside of underlying profit, this makes comparison with the other sector players far more difficult and invalidates direct comparisons between them on the basis of same.
With the dismal share price performance this year i am zooming out and taking a more macro focused approach on total comprehensive income, (Winners preferred approach) and looking at how that will grow in the years ahead.
I think you, I and Winner are very closely aligned on where we see the real net asset value as at 30 September, (very close to the share price) so this gives maximum bang for buck in terms of leveraging total comprehensive income in this sector over the medium to long term.
Its better for my head with where the shares price currently is to take a macro medium - long term perspective and to be honest I don't think a micro underlying profit focus for this half year when at least a quarter of it was under lockdown level 4 or 3 is especially helpful. They can continue building under lockdown level 3 so that's good but there will have been delay's with settlements and extra PPE costs so its hard to get a read on this one but my instincts, (based on all the anecdotal evidence from other sector participants and what they've reported), tell me you're probably a lot closer to the mark than Winner, not that underlying profit is especially important or the most relevant profit measure for this company.
I think its a VERY good thing that they building a lot more independent living apartments over the next few years and that's a trend I hope Brent will continue going forward from there. Their recent village acquisition in Hobsonville was a "full feature" village and I think that's what retiree's really want. I hope Brent heads more down that track with new villages they build from scratch, like the one at Pukekohe.
Long term its hard to see how you can go wrong with this one but its been a difficult year to see the share price going nowhere. I suppose after last years excitement, (I loaded up in the 60's and 70's and doubled my money), I probably should have had pretty modest expectations this year.
(Notice how I neatly avoided your question...I should be a politician lol).
Medical device companies related to an aging population is good to diversify from this dependance on house prices and govt subsidies.
COH, RMD, FPH, maybe CSL
Hey Mav, I've run with your superior knowledge and run with your estimates of Underlying Earnings estimates and plugged them into my EPS chart (Used weighted average number of shares as well)
Paints a rather sad picture -- EPS declines in H1 and for the full year is a miserable 4% higher than 12 months to March 21 ....and still tracking at 2018/2019 levels ....all that new capital not doing much is it.
Chart looks a bit like the share price chart --- and at the end of the day financial performance is actually why the share price is perceived to be so low / Cheap
Nice chart Winner.. can i copy that custom style for our charting modules, very clean no clutter.
Le Corbusier
Will call it the Flat Line Winner Style.
Stocks.Charts.StyleManager.AddStyle("WinnerGrinner ","Style=Styles.Line"));
Stock not a Winner then?
Its a property company. The real earnings for the year are in the increase in NAV + dividends paid. Waste of time trying to unpack it any more than that.
Something to cheer you up. Greg T been buying more . https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381402
That'll buck the troops up. Very smart guy. He's bought millions at $1.41...the hound bought a few at the same price last week.
Well done Greg ..... you stopped the share price crashing to low 130's
We are indebted to you
"NAV + dividends paid"
yield?
The land and buildings definitely.
over the long term, 10 years, is it not just a buy hold and forget as part of a well diversified portfolio.
"^^^^^ This !!"
:eek2:
lets keep with the blue font style.
According to Winners graph wonder if overweight from a pure maths probability point of view would be unwise.
Stat's indicate that the sector will continue to grow over the next decade.
With an investment banker in xarge the odds on performance have gone up?
Give it 2 more reporting periods or 3?
Hey Winner, love your charts but this one needs a few tweaks.
This years underlying profit I've estimated at $60m completely ignores both the shares issued for the recent acquisitions and income derived from those acquisitions. While OCA tell us it will be cash accreditive , which will result in a boost , I choose to ignore it until I see it actually transpire . (That's the cynicism I roll with Ferg, re my earlier post).
So if you divide the forecast 60m (ignoring any extra profit generated from the recent acquisitions) by 626m shares ( pre capital raise amount of new shares) then EPS is 9.6c
Plus your historical underlying EPS are off. Try these:
FY18...8.52cps
FY 19...8.03 cps
FY20...7.03cps (covid)
FY21...8.15cps
Forecast FY22...9.6cps
So definitely not brilliant on that measure for sure but as I've said before , its the numbers within the numbers that matter for now.
Care profits are tracking nicely up now permanently and will continue its accent at about this pace, c.10-15%p/a.
Village profits will be down temporarily this year until more Auckland apartments get delivered in the next few years and just generally more apartments delivered start selling now that land has been freed up by care suit completion. As I've said plenty before, the real money is in the apartments which don`t really get cracking for a year or two yet.
So really there is no busting hurry reason to buy OCA right now, but as Baabaa said a long time ago , this share price does tend to creep away.
When you can pick it up at near asset backing then it really is hard to see it ever being better value than now.
MR M's model, its more of a longer term hold, plenty of time to buy in if the numbers start to line up.
Share price may continue to come under pressure giving Bull another trade.
O Neil used to say the longer the flat line on the chart the steeper the move up when better numbers are printed in the results.
Does anybody know why Greg T can be buying shares with only 4 weeks before the HY1 result? As much as I fully respect the man and love to see him buying, surely he is in the "blackout stage " where he would have inside knowledge of things?
Edit...
Sorry folks , ignore this question... I just read at the bottom of his declaration he got "written permission in the closed period".
So, he obviously thinks its a good time to buy to be bothered applying for stuff like that from "the powers that be" rather than just waiting until after the result.
"Prudence will dictate that dealings should generally be limited to the recommended times in the securities "2 month period prior to release of the interim and full year results announcements" and that the Chairman will generally refuse consent to deal in Company securities outside these recommended times unless exceptional circumstances exist (as outlined below). In any event, the Director or Senior Executive should not deal in Company securities at any time if the Director or Senior Executive is in possession of any inside information relating to those securities."
Hope Greg not doing a Norah ...in reverse
Agree with the first half of what you say - the conclusion I am coming to is that they are a property company when you look at historical comprehensive earnings. Where I disagree with the second part is that as more units/suites/beds are added there is snowball effect of increased volumes -> increased unit turnover -> increased underlying profit as unused DMFs, resale margins etc. accrue to OCA and higher variable volumes are spread over a *relatively* stable fixed cost base. I say *relatively* fixed cost base but fixed costs appear to be semi-variable. With the snowball effect there should be exponential growth - the observed and modified EPS figures per Maverick suggest they are either perennially unlucky or we are at the early stages of exponential growth, i.e. still on the flat part of the curve until they iron out their growing pains.
NZX Rules (which Oceania state they abide to) say The policy also provides that no Directors or employees can trade shares if they are in possession of price sensitive information that is not publicly available.
So nothing to see with Gregs purchase - he might get lucky eh
That's okay with me, no barking required because I was buying at the same time ;)
Its all good, I was just being a little but facetious this morning having a tongue in cheek poke at OCA's dog's breakfast called financial statements.
Has this seller gone or taken a break
Depth is looking. Like a possible move upwards in the next week. 😁
well on that big buy by the director i have decided have a trade on the long side
Hope Greg buys more Heartland soon ...needs a bit if a boost
Radius going to let visitors
Brent might follow suit seeing he was pretty vocal about the subject last week
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...BPW6AZ7JG36DY/
Giving the middle finger to the ministry of health, but with very stringent entry conditions. Double vaccinated PLUS confirmation of a negative Covid test within the last 7 days and temperature checks as well and additionally only by appointment. Proof of negative test a bit over the top in my opinion. Double vax plus temperature test plus appointment plus mask wearing should surely be enough ?
I can fully see how it is almost cruel to deny visitors to residents for so long.
However I am not sure how it works with covid requirement. If they receive Health Board funding wouldn't they have to follow the particular Health Board's requirements? I am not sure how many strings are attached to Rest Home registration and funding.
Yeah fair comment I'll leave it to the health experts. I feel pretty strongly about it because I went through some weeks of being denied entry to see my dying Mum earlier this year. Its was bloody tough on everyone and that was just a few weeks. Thankfully in the end we all did get plenty of chances to say our goodbye's so that was nice and she's passed now so we are spared this current emotional torment. I really feel for these people because they're staring down the barrel of not only missing contact for the last 10 weeks but maybe another 10 weeks or who knows how many more as well :eek2: From an emotional point of view that's excruciatingly painful. You can't hug dying loved ones over the phone !!
Anyway...back to OCA, nice to see it making a start on heading in the right direction.
hesitant about commenting on covid
as long as they allow some rapid saliva testing and can access for $1 a pop or whatever then seems ok.
such a hard one for them to risk manage, both on real risk likelihood scenario and on an imagine if a client died how would we look ok risk
I don't think that theory holds water. Please see this article which tends to support the proposition that the acquisition of Arena was not a contested process
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...55LCABO3R6DQM/
Excerpt Arena is owned by funds management advisors and one of the world's largest alternative asset managers, Blackstone, which has head offices in New York. Nicholl said he had been dealing with Blackstone people in Sydney. "We've been talking over the last few months. It came about via existing relationships. We got into an exclusive due diligence position," Nicoll said.
Whatever the case my be about Mr Tomlinson's buying its nice to see this beached "whale" get a bit of a lift this week.
Attachment 13136
Apparently elephant seals can move quite quickly so you never know...
This Whale has started the short week back on the beach. Lol
I don’t think it’s a single seller, the market could be concerned that our current nursing shortage will look cute looking back in 6 months time when our health-system could be terminal from the effects of Covid-19. Remember you can still end up in hospital after 2 shots and our health staffing and infrastructure are an embarrassment.
Our residential property bubble is also ripe for a good pop as interest rates rise and some kiwi’s learn a hard lesson about diversification and leverage.
Happy to hold but these two risks are very real imo.
Yes and as discussed before you never really know what Spindy's woke kindy will come up with next either.
Next king tide is due in late November, maybe we can float this whale then ?
It would be really nice if we could enjoy discussions on OCA and other companies, without the constant political commentary. Can we please just stick to the subject and keep the government/Jacinda bashing for the other thread? That way, those of us who don't want or need to hear it, can avoid that thread and keep our sanity.
Please.
Human nature is that people will discuss anything they perceive as relevant to the risks and opportunities of any company in that companies thread.
Expecting otherwise is unrealistic.
P.S. Next high tide has just been confirmed as Monday morning 29 November. Lets hope its a king tide and we can refloat this whale :)
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381579
Results out Monday 29th.jusy one month to wait
They sux. Communication to shareholders is nothing short of abysmal compared to the other listed operators. Best they look up communication and see what it mean's. Any wonder its treated like a beetlebomb.
I agree. Summerset have quarterly sales updates and Arvida have regular investor news updates which amount to interim updates between the half and full year reporting dates.
Its a long time between drinks with OCA and its market updates...too long. In due course I might have a word with the chief about that.
I agree but that's not what I am referring to. I am talking about the never ending stream of immature, childish ranting about Jacinda, and anyone who supports Labour. Those comments achieve nothing, and are not relevant to an adult discussion about OCA. There is at least one other thread here that people can (and do) use to express those views. I don't think it's too much to ask, for people to use that thread for that purpose. Some of us want to participate in a mature and useful discussion here, without the distraction of unnecessary political rants. I doubt I am the only one.
justakiwi. I admire your constraint. And I totally concur with your opinion. I am surprised that contributors on this topic, who have valuable and instructive thoughts on OCA, should have such trivial childish opinions on a topic that is accounted for elsewhere. Stick to the knitting!!
1. Last week you complained that the posts in this thread were too negative. I am sorry that you appear to have no perspective for the hell Aucklanders are going through doing it so hard for the rest of New Zealand and sorry we can't all behave like everything is a whole barrel of fluffy ducks all the time. It isn't.
2. This week you're complaining about political aspects despite Labour now having a track record of passing legislation that radically undermines property investors rights that have existed for over 100 years. If you think there isn't legislative risk here you're very sadly mistaken.
What makes you think you have the right to ask for others to modify their posting style to suit your tastes ?
Yes I'm afraid the current Govt are completely unpredictable and make up policy on the fly so they are indeed a very real risk to a company such as this, on the one hand they can't do without the services that OCA provide but will that be enough to stop them interfering?
There was nothing aggressive in my post. Assertive maybe, but not aggressive. But you my friend, are of course entitled to your opinion.
I stand by my comments and request, which was made politely and respectfully. I had hoped that you might be mature enough to understand where I was coming from, but apparently not. Real shame.
Clearly it is time to look for an alternative to ST. There is now very little learning to be done here. Almost every thread turns into a political rant, and I for one, am tired of it. I get enough of it at work. I don't need it here.
You can keep (and enjoy) your OCA/anti Jacinda diatribe thread. I will stick to the more mature discussions from now on.
Maybe if you had serious money invested in real estate you would have an understanding of what it feels like for the Government to strip away the right to claim interest deductibility on rental properties and undermine the rights of investors that have existed for more than 100 years ? Its easy to be dispassionate when you're not affected.
You get delivered regular information nuggets of gold on this forum from highly experienced investors like me and many others. Here's a thought, why not just be appreciative for all those gifts rather than complaining about and critiquing the wrapper they come in ?
Does anyone remember when OCA listed on the ASX and why, did they provide any reasoning? I ask because it seems the high cost of listing, plus ongoing costs of compliance reporting and yet the volume of trades is pitiful.
The pain in Auckland is huge, small businesses failing almost daily. The tax on investors is the same as a lot of moves of this unpredictable government. It’s relevant that we have a very unstable government for any share across the market.
if the government wernt laser focused on killing all small businesses and taxing as much as they can with the ruse of keeping you safe. I’m sure they would try ruin the retirement sector as well without understanding it.
we shall see. I’m in Auckland and have a large holding in OCA and properties.
Would you like me to make a list of all the "thank yous" I have posted here since I joined? Plus all the private messages I have sent many people? Oh, and I almost forgot, the emails I have sent a select few, behind the scenes.
You are lucky I didn't read this until after I messaged you earlier.
You've hit the nail on the head mate. This is like living in the trenches in the Vietnam war...just waiting for the next bomb to drop. When are the case numbers really going to go exponential ? When will I or my loved ones catch Covid ? Which of my favorite local business's will fail next ? Will some of my friends go broke ? What direction will this Government lurch in when they next make up policy on the fly ?
I guess its easy for others that see no pain and feel no pain to wonder what all the fuss is about.
Its early days. The woeful level of ICU capacity that the Govt tried to spin has gone up has actually gone backwards according to leading specialists reports published last week and is now of third world standards. Hospitals will get overrun as sure as night follows day and then the bombing will really start. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds6mvK4olQ4
Looking through to the other side of this unfolding apocalypse the upshot of all this is that once the widespread carnage is over elderly people will crave the security of living in a care suite or an apartment knowing they can move to a care suite when necessary with the security of knowing they'll be looked after and OCA sales will go gangbusters and at record high prices, (if our new CEO is smart enough to put the prices up).
Beagle, you are clearly very stressed and anxious right now. Which is understandable. Maybe it's time to take a break again, so you don't fall back into the pattern of taking your stress and frustration out on others. You took exception to my civil request to leave the Cindy bashing out of every thread in this forum, but your reaction both publicly and via rep vote/PM, was excessive. I have tried to explain again, to you, why I asked what I did, but you refuse to even try to understand.
You need to vent. I get that. But as I said before, there are already at least two appropriate threads for you to do that - one is a thread about Labour, and the other is the covid thread. I stand by my initial post and request that you simply use those threads to vent your frustration about the government. I fully appreciate that political decisions are relevant to OCA, but the Cindy bashing rants are not. You are not the only one here who is stressed. Maybe not for the same reasons as you, but stressed all the same. Everyone's stress is legitimate.
Clearly, you see me as being callous and lacking empathy for the current situation for those of you in Auckland. You are wrong about that. I feel for you and I hope things change for you all, very soon. But you cannot use the situation as an excuse for your behaviour in these forums, or the way you react to people.
All I am really asking is can we all please stay on topic so we can enjoy discussing OCA without all the emotional distractions. Pretty simple really.
JAK - let me give you a piece of advice love that took me about a full decade on here to learn.
Anyone can say thank you for the nuggets of gold other highly experienced investors share on here that help them make a lot of money. Words are cheap. The real way to express thanks is to show respect and give people a very wide degree of latitude with their posts all the time respecting that the nuggets of gold do not always come dressed up with pretty little bows and wrappers to your liking.
When you start dictating terms on what you think posters should or shouldn't post in any particular thread, you've lost the plot. Sometimes being quiet is the hardest thing. Yesterday you said you were going to take a break from this thread. I think that's a very good idea for you. Nothing material is going to happen between now and 29 November. Have a nice day :)