TReally?
Up to a HUGE 1.2% of total receiveables from 1.1%.....???????????????
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Looks like business as usual, a classic long term hold kinda stock and one I sold out of far too early.
Winner as you obviously haven't got to slide 17 yet and I know it will excite you, here are the contents:
Diversity & inclusion
• Committed to becoming a more
diverse and inclusive place of work.
• Member of Champions for Change.
• Focused on attracting and retaining
female leaders and improving gender
balance across the business.
• Increase Māori representation.
• Aiming to be an employer of choice
for emerging Māori talent.
I'm surprised you don't think it should be Slide 1 or 2
Champions For Change are a group of winners. Got Jenny Shipley as Co Chair (well that went without saying) and shes happy to talk about Genesis Energy. How About she shares her contribution to Mainzeal.
And Mike Bush. Hes the Head Cop who reckons Bruce Hutton (the cop that planted the shell case in the Arthur Alan Thomas case - and wasnt bright enough to know the shell was manufactured after the murders) was a man with integrity beyond reproach
The chart on page 6 is a waste of space ...from a presentation point of view at least
Many thanks indeed for your post. I am even more pleased now not to be a shareholder. People should be hired and promoted based on their talent and that's the ONLY relevant criteria in my opinion.
Percy mate, time is money. All I need to know is their EPS growth rate is slowing and is now in line with their peer group which are trading on much lower PE multiples the rest of this diversification, impairment and support of specific gender groups and race's is just a load of corporate public relations "creative speak", which goes by another name starting with B but probably best I don't use it ;) Next they'll have a target workforce percentage from the "rainbow community" bet you're looking forward to that.
No hint of UDC that I can see in there.
Online platform needs a lot of work, limited functionality and poor interface for accessing accounts. I opened a new account a few weeks ago and had to wait to be assigned a password for my new login as their printers were down.. Yes they print the password instead of generating one online.
As your wealthiest client will tell you, the figures do not tell the whole picture.
Failure to look beyond eps growth for one period is dangerous.HBL's growth remains intact,and is well ahead of its peer group.Well ahead,because HBL do not carry their heavy baggage..
It was a good result,sound ground work is now producing the results,with plenty of growth opportunities to come,from both NZ and Australia.
.
Page 13 said: ROE reduced due to increase in capital
Means ‘new’ capital not returning as much as the ‘old’ capital was
Need to make it work harder
(And has been calculated on a weighted average)
Growth with diminishing returns is an interesting concept, esp in finance world
So business segments are growing without any of the growth hitting the bottom line (EPS).
From my point of view there are two ways you can look at an investment in company (this isn't just about HBL now).
1. Invest in the company because you like the business and it's story
2. Invest in a company because you are looking to grow your investment through EPS and Dividend growth moving forward
Number 2 is how I look at all my investments. If a company isn't going to benefit me in either EPS and Dividends growth and its current price is quoted at a level that the market expects EPS growth. It signals a warning to me.
If I was looking to buy, I won't. As there would most likely be more downside (or sideways movement) in the share price than up
If I was already holding, I would reduce or exit. For the same reason.
"Regardless of one's opinion, the market always has the last word" Mark Minervini
As mentioned in previous posts, I have nothing against HBL, enjoyed being part of their journey and the direction they are going. I'm just looking ahead at the EPS growth and know there are better Investment options out there for my money.
P.S TRA is not one of them.
He doesn't like HBL at the current price either.
BEN growing profit at ~ 10%, growing EPS well and on a PE of just 11.7 https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201802...jgpqyb80dx.pdf
HBL Shareholders have had a VERY good run with the substantial PE expansion in recent years.
MAYBE RERATING BACK TO MORE REALISTIC MULTIPLES UNDER WAY
This cyclone makes me bored and Heartland announcement wasn't that good so as the rain tumbles down (wind to get up to cyclonic proportions later today they say) I updated a few things
Suppose this updated chart is a waste of time and utter nonsense but anyway it suggests that the Heartland Price Book ratio could be reverting to more normal levels associated with banks in Australia.
At a P/B of 1.4 the share price would be about $1.60
Still haven't made my mind up whether to sell yet but finding it hard to find a compelling reason not to. Higher the multiple the lower the future rerurns they say
All prety stupid eh .... but I like it anyway
Quiet an interesting article ...but you need to have an open mind with no prejudices to enjoy
https://aeon.co/ideas/why-hiring-the...eative-results
Why hiring the ‘best’ people produces the least creative results
I'm sure Heartland had the 'best' people to build their online platform and in the minds of those people they probably created the 'best' platform ever ....but for ordinary people (customers) like me its not very good and doesn't serve its purpose because I need to use a phone to get something done.
I think that this sharechat articale is far more interesting than the negative comments on this site today: http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d...-improves.html
Market Cap Westpac 110 billion $
Market Cap HBL. 1.0 billion $
I think that The big banks have sod all chance of growing as fast as HBL
My view is that HBL are really just starting out. Still wearing short pants. They are still young and nimble.
I had a look at eh Reverse Mortgage calculator the other day. It looks like they will give you 10 - 15% of property value at 7.8% Which seemed ultra conservative and expensi to me. I'd go 80% at 5.5% - but then I'm not a banker. Must be loads of opportunity for growth just there.
Buying a couple of clicks above the 200MA support you'd think should be fairly safe, only 11% or so capital loss from its recent high. Market said today Heartland still a bit overpriced or still digesting the numbers, but market could change it's mind tomorrow. I can't see much getting in the way of a plateau forming in the SP around here then steady as she goes until the next numbers are released, unless some external event out of their control clobbers the banking/finance sector.
Edit: should add that it's been awhile since the SP plumbed below 200MA, but when it does it usually has a decent look lower (for a short few weeks). Depending on ones position, if it happens this time, that could present a sell/buyback, add, or get in opportunity.
What a negative story ...it headlined Heartland shares were down. Bloody media.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4...sky-tv-air-nz-
Interesting how quickly market sentiment changes in the mind of investors. Winners become losers, and sure things turn sour overnight. I thought this one was overvalued at $2.10 and it has come down a touch. Although in current conditions I don't see this going all the way down to the other side of the spectrum, it could stay in limbo for a while.
A few things that interested me is this shift in impairment upwards. I'm not sure if HBL have started writing up more loans resulting in a greater % coming back requiring impairment, or diversifying their risk appetite upwards because they are in a better position to do it with their recent capital raise. A bit of both probably.
Another thing is the increase in operating costs due to the new banking systems "teething issues". From experience, these software projects can get out of hand and developers can sniff out and fare to make a handsome sum if you contract out to a 3rd party to help.
I do however like the operating activity growth in the cash flow statement, which some shows that the growth happening is real and not just non cash movements masquerading as real growth. What comes with that of course is greater expenditure.
I'm not too obsessed with price with this one but I wouldn't be jumping in just yet. I believe if this goes down to 1.50 or 1.60 again I'll be accumulating again.
This is the first time in a while I have read through a heartland result and thought: it is average.
Even when excluding the relatively recent capital raise things still just didn't feel and look (and all those other wonderful buzz words) as good as previous result announcements...
Mr Market seems to be thinking along the same lines as the share price is the lowest in over 4 months
Then again, it had a hell of a run and some say it was pretty expensive' already... the "fake media" isn't helping
Share price will resume normal resumption (upwards) tomorrow or Thursday once Forbar and Craig’s send out a note to their clients saying it was a strong result
That’s how the game works
No worries
Jeff has said numerous times Heartlands fortunes are tied to the general state of the economy, ie GDP growth
Westpac economists view of the future are bit dismal (chart)
Probably why Jeff wants to see more profits coming out of Australia
What a load of the old proverbial - Westpac forecast or Jeff’s Statement it just my interpretation of both. Never mind ...little can go wrong with Heartland
Marketing - I can't tell if Heartland are actively looking at promoting themselves to New Zealand as an alternative option to the bigger banks and building societies. Would be great to see some positive marketing material and reaching out to New Zealanders. I am a big fan of New Zealand having their own bank and a strong one, keeping profits and jobs in New Zealand. Year on year this business has been doing a great deal of good for local economies and it is highly commendable. Wonder if they hooked up with some of the retirement villages and got some old money coming in to the bank. I'm sure a lot of the wiser citizens would prefer to keep things nationally when it comes to banking and New Zealand operated businesses.
Quite a few punters reckon that that Slide 17 is code for Tainui / Ngai Tahu come and get us.
Didn’t one of the high flying blue eyed stars of Heartland management leave a few years ago to join Tainui?
Not a stellar yield by any stretch of the imagination though.
Good post. That's where I might be interested in it again if I can get my head around their apparent obsession with one particular ethnicity.
Exactly. To promote one ethnicity above others, is NOT encouraging diversity per se when just by way of example our Asian friends make up a FAR greater percentage of the population. This in my opinion is quite unbecoming of a bank that wants to build credibility. I have never seen any other publicly listed company print part of its annual report in Maori either. Political correctness gone mad ?
Do you think Chairman Geoffrey and Chief Jeff have lost the plot with this sort of stuff. God knows where it will end up.
Both been around too long maybe and past their best and losing focus on what’s important ...time for them to move on so sanity can prevail?
If they stay just imagine what this slide (and extra ones) will look like at the next presentation.
Geoff and Jeff have taken a vision of a listed NZ Bank and made it a reality.
Customers,Staff,Investors,and Shareholders are enjoying the benefits of their vision.
Heartland Bank has been best described,by our own Brian, as "young and nimble".
The "young and nimble" are being guided by very wise heads.
Having plenty on skin on the line will keep them focussed for future opportunities,here and in Australia,without having to carry the heavy baggage the Australian Banks have landed themselves with.
Another name change could be the next step? Mano Whenua Bank/Heartland Bank has the same touch to it as Aorangi/Mount Cook or Taranaki/Mount Egmont.
Can't hurt if Maoris get the warm fuzzies for Heartland, or other NZ-owned banks? Same for the Maori-friendly or patriotic such as academics, LGBT, etc.
Heartland should benefit from it's customers' fee-free access to all those big banks' ATM's. Not that anyone uses cash anymore, or at least that's what we're told!
:cool:
I really though for a while they have been slightly off point..should mix it up with the Board, they have so much potential with this Bank.
Took a look below the 200DMA today and closed up a bit .. bang on it. Not sure what that means, but punters like the 200DMA, so might be a bottom. Most times don't need to watch closely but when it gets near a turning point (or potential) it pays to be alert. Only for the capital sensitive, the devoted holders won't even know what the closing price was today, they'll be staggering home from the bowling club shortly and not even check ST until the hangover wears off tomorrow.
;)
The customers won't be charged a fee but I haven't read anything that says that the banks still won't be charging each other. As the spokesperson from ANZ said - the bank can afford to pay instead of the customer.
So Heartland may end up absorbing fees from their customers using all the other banks' ATMs.
They have been printing parts of the annual report in Maori for a while now mini. Absolutely determined they are to show their support for all things Maori, (masquerading as encouraging diversity)...no need to show support for any other ethnicities though which as mentioned yesterday really seems bizarre.
Speaking of support, I see the 200 day MA has been breeched...no worries whatsoever though because the 1,000 day moving average is still intact ;)
Some parts of me does believe these boring stocks are heading lower while people are going mad on the A2 buzz. It makes these boring companies look better for me in the long run. Not necessarily only hbl
Rerating continues with a close at 184 ....market deciding that multiples it been trading at too high
Maybe 150/160 is where it settles
Be a wonderful yield at those prices.
Many of us who brought well under $1.00 are loving the yield on our purchase prices,while those who brought under 60 cents. remain on cloud 9..
Keeps improving every year too.
Funny that.!
Great stock for your bowling club mates.Certainly beats the Co-Op's deposit rates they are getting.!..lol.
I'm also pleased to have sold half of my HBL holding at $2.11 so now doing a Percy and holding free shares :-) Been a great ride over the years. I will definitely stay in this one and no doubt accumulate again in the future. I like their steady EPS and dividend growth.
And just for you TA people I noted in my review of the chart this afternoon we have the very good makings of a head and shoulders pattern about to be completed if you get your 175 support in due course and a bounce to say mid 180's that should nicely complete the head and shoulders and then that gives them what ? over a 90% from memory ? chance of going down from there. Zero EPS growth and down they go to the average of the other banks, about a PE of 13. $1.50 - $1.60 looks quite possible to me. Just as well Winner's bowling club mates got onto the A2 rocket !
The 1.50 - 1.60 level has merit from a TA perspective, but 1.75 support is pretty solid and definitely in the way before that, imo. I'm quite gobsmacked that the HBL darling has posted such poor EPS, those underlying costs etc are chewing away at the near term. I wouldn't want to hold this stock in a global rout, it'll get slammed immediately with the real banks, but who knows whether that's going to happen - probably just being a worry wort.
I guess the long termers don't care too much about capital preservation as long as the dividends keep rolling in. They do crow about making some lovely capital upside and divies, but probably just happy as long as the income keeps coming in irrespective of the head share price. That logic fails me, but I'm not relying on shares for regular income and hate capital losses.
I think you're dead right to be cautious Baa. Capital preservation must play an important part in one's investment strategy surely ! That was some mighty severe turbulence earlier this month. I've been happy to sell in recent months any high PE stock that doesn't come with explosive growth. Portfolio adjustments in recent months due to the risk reward equation looking too skewed to the former have included sales of, AIR at an average of over $3.40 when RR engine problems were a prominent and unknown risk, HBL at $2.14, PE too high for a bank, PPH at $4.15 and THL, got the timing a bit wrong at an average of about $5.80 but as the old saying goes you can't win them all.
Plenty of cash in the tin helps provide a buffer and dampen down the effects of extreme volatility.
As you suggest the old hands don't care as long as the divvies keep rolling in but I think its clear the market wasn't impressed with zero EPS / dividend growth. Recycled HBL capital into additional ATM in December at around $9 and SUM in the mid 5's so I'm all good :)
I used to agree with both Baa Baa and Beagle's point about preserving capital.
However I find my own portfolio suits my now retirement needs.
Those needs are income first to live.This income needs to come from good companies,that have a record of paying fully imputed growing dividends.After any correction these types of shares recover the quickest.So I have HBL and others my portfolio.[HLG,MEL,TRA],
So with income sorted, I have spare capital .This capital is spread between NZ and Australian companies,mainly in sectors I feel have good growth prospects,and yield is secondary,ie,tourism,health,and retirement villages,and mining.
With the growing amount of petty cash,because we live well within our means, I then invest in higher risk fun shares.Over the years I have done extremely well on these.Profits from these are then recycled into my high income producing shares,which means more of the likes of HBL,HLG,MEL,THL, and TRA.Compond investing really works,leaving us all the time "well positioned.".
Had a trigger to sell below $1.95 which wasn't renewed because I was incommunicado for a while. There goes about 12c/share which I would have dearly loved. Still like the company but most likely will go sideways for a while and I have more noteworthy investments at the moment.
If they can make $68m which looks like a tall order given their first half result that's just 12.2 cps on 557m shares, (I don't "buy" all this creative weighted average shares on issue nonsense). I no longer see a valid reason they should trade on a multiple in excess of their peer group, EPS growth is no better than the big banks many of which have a 150+ year history and vastly better credit rating, so I reckon a PE of 13 is fair so I get $1.59 as my target price.
DRP is looking more attractive every day..!
Goodness gracious - share price falling faster than what Metro Glass is doing
i just brought some this morning looks oversold to me , nice div coming up .... see how it pans out
Buffett admits Heartland was just too expensive to buy?
Berkshire Hathaway likes buying companies with durable competitive strengths and a sensible purchase price. In the latest newsletter Buffett said "That last requirement proved a barrier to virtually all deals we reviewed in 2017."
So even though Heartland just what they wanted it must have been really overpriced ..,and too expensive
HBL have a history of dropping very low when DRP is being assessed. At 1.82 or thereabout its a buy.
So when will HBL and TRA amalgamate ?
"never" some times to be turns out to be very soon ! don't bet on it !
im out for a couple cents , couldnt get above 1.84 and still in a downtrend.
While the chart is a bit scary at the moment, I intend to hold. In terms of 10+ years investment timeline for me nothing announced has indicated that this short term weakness won't pass. As someone 100% subscribed to DRP the scenario just gets better.
Craigs research this morning on projected yields, has HBL's gross dividend yield increasing from 7.1% [2018] to 7.9% [2019] an increase of 11.26%.
Great yields for those who spotted the durable competitive strengths of HBL,and brought at sensible purchase prices.
Posted recently. Even removing my own confirmation bias regarding methodology of measuring EPS when significant new shares are issued during the year. I note the following 2018 PE's straight off 4 Traders based on Friday's closing price.
NAB 13.35
ANZ 12.16
WBC 12.68
CBA 13.57
BEN 12.13
BOQ 12.72
Average of Australian peer group 12.77
HBL even with the recent SP decline 15.21.
Share price to bring the PE into line with peer group 12.77 / 15.21 x 1.81 = $1.52.
Note: many of HBL's peer group have track records going back more than 150 years and vastly better credit ratings.
2 Years ago HBL traded at about a 2 PE discount to its peer group.
Back-testing of support in the 150-160 range coming in the medium term ? You be the judge.
didn’t poor ‘old Snoopy bring forward a very compelling PE debate awhile back and end up getting slated by a lot of people on ST for his comparison of HBL to the big ozzy banks?
I really enjoyed all of the contributions at the time, but seem to recall that the outcome (general consensus) was that a slight PE premium for a growing kiwi bank vs the ‘large, mature & clunky' ozzy banks was deemed acceptable?
charts indicate support at around 175. should be fine.
CBL debacle will be having a flow on negative effect on HBL - overseas investors would be wondering whether RBNZ has what it takes to supervise the financial sector.
The big trading banks are effectively supervised by RBA so don't look at the trading banks as guidance of how overseas investors view RBNZ.
https://www.insurancetimes.co.uk/cap...426534.article
"CBLI had significantly under-reserved its French business to such an extend its adjusted capital for solvency purposes (ie excluding inadmissible components) was most likely to be less than zero’, according to the court documents."
CBL debacle has the potential to have a flow on effect not just on HBL but on all of our (NZX traded) stocks. Overseas market will wonder whether governance in New Zealand is only on a voluntary basis for members of the rich and famous boys club. Not a good place to invest money ....
Just hoping that our market authorities wake up, find their dentures and sort out this mess (including demotivating the next bunch of incompetent yes man to repeat this debacle) - and hoping that whatever they do will be enough and in good time for the fickle international markets to be satisfied. Sitting the issues out and slapping afterwards some of the culprits with wet bus tickets won't do this time.