Hi Stanace,
Has it occured that in fact no one knows. There are only opinions for what they are worth. Take the large turnover of the last few months. Until recently the large turnover was seller driven.Sellers dominate when the price is falling. Clearly to me this period atarted just after the explosion of PIKE and NZO was sold down more than the value of pike worth and in fact sold down to less than the value of KUPE itself. This period was seller driven. Some holders for whatever reason wanted out regardless of tomorrow.
In the last two weeks it is slowly starting to look as if the nil value of PIKE will come in on the low side.Punters and investers are slowly factoring this in and we are seeing a creep in SP to reflect this.As the price id rising it is buyer driven but at this stage quitely and with soft movements. A sale of PIKE will put value on NZO holding and the SP will jump in responce ,but for now it is just theory and little value is being placed on it.
I do not believe any of the recent small rise has anything to do with PPP. That seems to be forgotten at the moment both here and with PPP.As no value seems to be put on PPPV getting anywhere a pleasant suprise could happen here as well.Currently PPP is on assit backing so should not slip too much if all negative. Results for PPPV are sometime in the unknown future.
The value of the falling dollar and interest rates and the rising POO are all good news for NZO.Theses to do not seem to have had the effect they should have had. Still it all means more income for NZO in the longer term and once the money is in the bank it should all help.The biggest negative for NZO is management and leadership.If i ran the company and was facing the 99 million writeoff i would have also been careful to insure that the belt tightning applied to management as well as shareholders.Now there might very well be belt tighting at the board level but it has not been spelled out that i am aware of.I think the other negative is that we clearly have too many problems here in NZ at the moment without getting out of our depth with overseas empire building and the million and one hidden costs that will bring up.This is an unknown that will rear on the SP.
I personally have never been in favor of foreign exchange cover for my experience with the Dairy company being not any better than doing nothing. In the last few years we have lost heavily as the NZ dollar rose against the greenback but now thta is turning the other way.We are stuffed and the Yanks are stuffed.It all comes down to who is the most stuffed and with earthquakes and whatever that keeps changes by the hour,so just leave the dollar cover out of it and with time it should all average out.Cover cost money and it is onlt in hindsight that it is clear if it was a good idea or not.