Hey Winner, love your charts but this one needs a few tweaks.
This years underlying profit I've estimated at $60m completely ignores both the shares issued for the recent acquisitions and income derived from those acquisitions. While OCA tell us it will be cash accreditive , which will result in a boost , I choose to ignore it until I see it actually transpire . (That's the cynicism I roll with Ferg, re my earlier post).
So if you divide the forecast 60m (ignoring any extra profit generated from the recent acquisitions) by 626m shares ( pre capital raise amount of new shares) then EPS is 9.6c
Plus your historical underlying EPS are off. Try these:
FY18...8.52cps
FY 19...8.03 cps
FY20...7.03cps (covid)
FY21...8.15cps
Forecast FY22...9.6cps
So definitely not brilliant on that measure for sure but as I've said before , its the numbers within the numbers that matter for now.
Care profits are tracking nicely up now permanently and will continue its accent at about this pace, c.10-15%p/a.
Village profits will be down temporarily this year until more Auckland apartments get delivered in the next few years and just generally more apartments delivered start selling now that land has been freed up by care suit completion. As I've said plenty before, the real money is in the apartments which don`t really get cracking for a year or two yet.
So really there is no busting hurry reason to buy OCA right now, but as Baabaa said a long time ago , this share price does tend to creep away.
When you can pick it up at near asset backing then it really is hard to see it ever being better value than now.